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Thread: Ukraine

  1. #15726
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    Quote Originally Posted by Viva View Post
    Nice write-up, summit.

    I'll add to it a bit.

    There's one guy I recently began following who thinks the war could resolve quickly: Torsten Henrich



    His point is that a quick end to war in Ukraine is only possible if Putin grows convinced that he's gonna to lose (or if Ukraine utterly surrenders, I suppose). But this absolutely requires a credible commitment from the West. And we ain't gonna accomplish that when after nearly two years we've been unable to express what end state we want out of this.

    "As long as it takes" doesn't fucking cut it!

    I don't think it would require a thousand tanks or five hundred F-16s, though; millions of artillery shells and hundreds of radars, jammers, and decoys, yeah, that might do the trick. And it's very doable.

    A similar perspective was published recently by The Atlantic Council, arguing that helping Ukraine counter Putin is probably the cheapest way possible to do it.

    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...urgent-russia/
    That one is next on my playlist, need to finish this one first.https://youtu.be/WAmapFtQvXs?feature=shared (Perun)

  2. #15727
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    Quote Originally Posted by summit View Post
    We need to step up our support of Ukraine. We cannot let the Israel situation derail our commitment. We have to do something about the tiny radical right winger faction holding our entire foreign policy hostage if we hope to win the largest battle we have seen in Cold War II. This is Cold War II and Russia's invasion of Ukraine is the largest hot battle. It sucks because this battle is such a low cost battle for the US, but we are balking.

    Our ally is in a defensive war against an invading Chinese ally. We don't have to spill our own blood to stop Putin's brutal expansionism. We can easily afford to give Ukraine what they need to prevail and disable Russia as a Chinese tool that can hold NATO forces in place. That is what China needs for their next move.

    The long game of ideological capture and societal disruption played by our enemies is really paying huge dividends. Teaching in our schools and universities for a generation that the US and West are evil, that everyone is simply oppressed or oppressor, allows a reactionary rightwing isolationist insane response. Tankies still exist too. And when a distraction action like Iranian proxy Hamas 7 Oct massacre kicks off (instigated by Russia with a nod from their CCP masters), the anti-west intersectionalists are happy to paralyze the conversation by demonstrating in favor of literal terrorists.

    We need to have the will to love, support, and fight for our enlightened western liberal democratic rules based international system, or we can languish in slow decline and decay while our totalitarian energies lick their lips and sate their hunger for domination with the blood of innocent Ukrainians, Israelis, and, next, Taiwanese if we are not proactive.

    We have to collectively swing the pendulum. We can see what is right and wrong if you actually believe in the values of the Enlightenment: the value of human happiness, the pursuit of knowledge obtained by means of reason and the evidence of the senses, and ideals such as natural law, liberty, progress, toleration, fraternity, constitutional government, and separation of church and state. If you do, then the West can be the best despite its flaws, which we can acknowledge and collectively improve upon. We can judge what is right and wrong in the bounds of those values.

    We can call for the cultural conversation to switch back to civility, rationality, and the determination to focus on the values that make us great. That is what is needed to defend freedom from the foreign threats of Chinese/Russian totalitarian aggression and expansionist Islamic theocracy. At the same time we can protect ourselves from the twin domestic threats of the extremist right and the illiberal left that have become powerful and disruptive useful idiots for our foreign enemies.

    The chance to stop this without paying the American blood price is now.
    Very well written. I agree entirely.

    I still cannot fathom how anyone over 50 could possibly not view Russia as a enemy of the US. They remember the wall and the USSR and are old enough to understand why that is a fact. A lot of the 30-50 crowd has no recollection of Soviet times, and is another generation away from 1917 - WWII and the multiple genocides the Soviets committed between the country's creation the end of Stalin's reign.




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  3. #15728
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    Quote Originally Posted by BC13 View Post
    Very well written. I agree entirely.

    I still cannot fathom how anyone over 50 could possibly not view Russia as a enemy of the US. They remember the wall and the USSR and are old enough to understand why that is a fact. A lot of the 30-50 crowd has no recollection of Soviet times, and is another generation away from 1917 - WWII and the multiple genocides the Soviets committed between the country's creation the end of Stalin's reign.




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    This is also what baffles me. How can someone possibly see Russia as anything but our enemy and the enemy of functioning democracy?

    Nice write up, Summit. Agreed 100%
    "All God does is watch us and kill us when we get boring. We must never, ever be boring."

  4. #15729
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    Damn Summit. Well said. I agree completely.

    Amazing how quickly we forget the lessons of each generation that came before us.

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  5. #15730
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    Another +1 for Summits write up. Give them all the tanks we are retiring, more MLRS, planes, and missiles. The US and Europe are still too slow to increase artillery production. Take the gloves off already. Ukraine has done so well on a shoe string defense fund / weapons access.


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  6. #15731
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    Quote Originally Posted by neufox47 View Post
    Another +1 for Summits write up. Give them all the tanks we are retiring, more MLRS, planes, and missiles. The US and Europe are still too slow to increase artillery production. Take the gloves off already. Ukraine has done so well on a shoe string defense fund / weapons access.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

    .gov can seed money, but how2 long term finance billions capex for ballistic steel mills and tooling with years of lead time and not get branded a Socialist? Not a lot of places in the world build big forging tools for big gun barrels. Cassette bearings for rail cars is another financial choke point where gov investment would tend to disrupt the market for existing players in a very capital-intensive industry.

  7. #15732
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    Another +1 to Summit. Russia has been an intractable enemy of the west and have caused much of the craziness we've seen from both the right and left. Dissension is their goal. It'll be a new world when they go down and they must go down. This is at least a step in the right direction: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...00-2023-10-20/

    We need to stop messing around and get serious.

  8. #15733
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    Bang on Summit. Fuck Putin!
    “I tell you, we are here on Earth to fart around, and don't let anybody tell you different.”
    ― Kurt Vonnegut, A Man Without a Country

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  9. #15734
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hopeless Sinner View Post
    I'm hoping the arrival of F16's makes a big impact.
    Here you go

    Short answer, not in the way you want.
    Longer answer - It takes many years to train the skills and leadership needed for effective NATO style tactics, especially as a mission in Ukraine requires large numbers of coordinated jets to suppress of enemy fighters and air defense. The logistical challenges are also substantial, as they need significant dispersal to prevent Russia killing them on the ground, and that requires preparation of many airports and taxiways. There's also western political problems to overcome.

    I was distracted while watching and I didn't catch how many airplanes Ukraine has left. I'm under the belief from a year ago that there's a desperate and growing need to replace losses with western jets, so F16's big impact may be that it keeps Ukraine in the fight a little bit longer.

    Justin Bronk's main concern is the "western" nations are doing too little too slowly, while Russia now has a war economy and becomes more ready to rampage as time passes. Peace or a ceasefire would be disastrous for Ukraine and its allies, as the current war pace forces Russia to send and lose untrained troops, preventing them from training a more effective offensive force. Strategically, Russia believes it can win and is willing to take a lot of military pain, and Ukraine's allies are waffling in the face of minor economic pain. Man up or lose. With the prospect to face a better armed, more angry, and winning Russia later if we don't.

  10. #15735
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    Damn, Summit. Spot on.

    Permission to share?

  11. #15736
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    Dude, I agree with almost all of summit's rant, but his ongoing obsession with the CCP as the root of all evil seems a bit monomaniacal.

    And no, I don't support Xi in the least.

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  12. #15737
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    Summit crushed that piece. Well done. I don't get it either. I guess a lot of these people that seem to support Russia are more afraid of gays than being under a totalitarian regime. It would be good for the world if Ukraine gets the supplies it needs to crush Russia and shed that weight and get back to becoming an emerging strong democratic state.
    Aim for the chopping block. If you aim for the wood, you will have nothing. Aim past the wood, aim through the wood.
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  13. #15738
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    Further signs of Ukraine escaping Russian orbit:

    https://twitter.com/USAmbKyiv/status...92755291754677

    All y'alls know the railroad story, right? Stalin wanted his own custom rail gauge, in part, as another barrier to escaping Moscow's control.

    I hope that Moldova follows suit, otherwise weekend train getaways to Odessa are gonna be a bitch.
    Daniel Ortega eats here.

  14. #15739
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongShortLong View Post
    Short answer, not in the way you want.

    It's always more complicated than one would suspect. Would RU attack F16s parked in neighboring countries?

  15. #15740
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongShortLong View Post
    Here you go

    Short answer, not in the way you want.
    Longer answer - It takes many years.
    Ward Carroll always brings a dose of realism that is desperately need these days.

    Win, lose or draw in Ukraine the big winner in all this will be China. Russia needs big help from its “ally” China. China is licking its lips looking at all territories it can regain and resources it will have access to in eastern Russia.

  16. #15741
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    ^Agree on Ward Carrol bringing some great content. Perun also continues to consistently deliver gold.

    Glad folks appreciated my post!

    Quote Originally Posted by Tri-Ungulate View Post
    Dude, I agree with almost all of summit's rant, but his ongoing obsession with the CCP as the root of all evil seems a bit monomaniacal.
    When I think of this as Cold War II it is almost as multipolar as the post Cold War west.... but there are still dominant forces. It was once the US and USSR, with China playing a second tier then later kinda sorta switching sides. Now China is the dominant force opposing the liberal democracies and their enlightenment values. I probably do come off as oversimplifying as not everything is truly China's masterminded plan, but a lot of what is going on likely had their assent and support, and works to their ultimate favor, whether it is Russia or Iran's minions. I've been watching very closely what China has been doing militarily and diplomatically throughout the Pacific. Any move on Taiwan, fulfilling Xis self proclaimed goals, would be massively helped by a major regional war, or more than one, pinning down NATO/US forces. I imagine that there is a contingency plan to blockade, strike, and invade the moment they think the US can be deterred from a Taiwan conflict because we are overcommitted.

    When you think in those terms, our path of choices to handle each threat axis and regional crisis is somewhat narrowed, and we've actually been doing a darn good job... but we need to not stall on Ukraine.

    That said, Russia and Iran easily do at least as much if not significantly more information operations and societal manipulation of the West as China. NK plays the game too.

    Quote Originally Posted by gaijin View Post
    Damn, Summit. Spot on.

    Permission to share?
    Sure! I normally slam out my thoughts without much proof reading, so I did a super quick edit to fix sloppy grammar/wording:

    We need to step up our support of Ukraine. We cannot let the Israel crisis derail our commitment. We have to do something about the tiny radical right winger faction holding our entire foreign policy hostage if we hope to win the largest battle we have seen in Cold War II. This is Cold War II and Russia's invasion of Ukraine is the largest hot battle. It sucks because even though this battle is such a low-cost battle for the US, we are stalling!

    Our ally is in a defensive war against an invading Chinese ally. We don't have to spill our own blood to stop Putin's brutal expansionism. We can easily afford to give Ukraine what they need to prevail and disable Russia as a Chinese tool that can hold NATO forces in place. That is what China needs for their next move.

    The long game of ideological capture and societal disruption played by our enemies is really paying huge dividends. Teaching in our schools and universities for a generation that the US and West are evil, that everyone is simply oppressed or oppressor, allows a reactionary rightwing isolationist response. Tankies still exist too. And, when a nefarious ploy like Iranian-proxy Hamas’s 7 Oct massacre kicks off (instigated by Russia with a nod from their CCP masters), the anti-west intersectionalists are happy to paralyze the national conversation by demonstrating in favor of literal terrorists.

    We need to have the will to love, support, and fight for our enlightened Western liberal democratic rules-based international system. Or, we can languish in the slow decline and moral paralysis of letting the extremes dominate the dialogue. We can decay while our totalitarian enemies lick their lips and sate their hunger for domination with the blood of innocent Ukrainians, Israelis, and, next, Taiwanese if we are not proactive.

    We must collectively swing the pendulum. We can see what is right and wrong if we actually believe in the values of the Enlightenment: the value of human happiness, the pursuit of knowledge obtained by means of reason and the evidence of the senses, and ideals such as natural law, liberty, progress, toleration, fraternity, constitutional government, and separation of church and state. If you do, then the West can be the best despite its flaws, which we can acknowledge and collectively improve upon. We can judge what is right and wrong in the bounds of those values.

    We can call for the cultural conversation to switch back to civility, rationality, and the determination to focus on the values that make us great. We must act accordingly to defend freedom from the foreign threats of Chinese/Russian totalitarian aggression and expansionist Islamist theocracy. At the same time, we can protect ourselves from the twin domestic threats of the extremist right and the illiberal left that have become powerful and disruptive useful idiots for our foreign enemies.

    Now is our chance to stop this without paying the American blood price.
    Last edited by summit; 11-29-2023 at 01:29 PM.
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  17. #15742
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    Quote Originally Posted by This End Up View Post
    Ward Carroll always brings a dose of realism that is desperately need these days.
    We've been discussing the specific points made in the video and the desperate need for Ukraine assistance here for weeks & months. That said, even after Russia prepared to invade for a decade using seven decades of accumulated USSR weapons stocks, the sadistic empire of monsters with the backing of North Korea and Iran still can't take little Ukraine.

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  18. #15743
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hopeless Sinner View Post
    It's always more complicated than one would suspect. Would RU attack F16s parked in neighboring countries?
    Neighboring countries wouldn't allow Ukrainian F-16s to fly combat missions. US National Guard F-16s however already operated in Ukraine for joint training exercises before the war. In the past Ukrainian pilots also flew F-16s. They took off and landed on Ukraine's runways and F-16s are even capable of using roadways if necessary, so it can be done.

    While the operational overhead shouldn't be understated, F-16s will give Ukraine much more advanced capabilities compared with its technologically older generation of aircraft. Just as 20 ATACMs missiles in October—we have another 1400 of the same expired missiles that could be sent—wrecked the Russian helicopter fleet forcing Russia to abandon occupied airfields; F-16s armed with glide bombs and/or flying anti-aircraft anti-AD in support of precision-guided missions would've provided an immense boost to last summer's counter-offensive.

    When it comes to aid we've seen throughout starting with the four months long debate about whether to send Western artillery is whenever we hear it won't make any difference it's coming from a place of fear, fear of defeating Russia
    Last edited by MultiVerse; 11-29-2023 at 07:57 PM.

  19. #15744
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    “You should see what our guys are doing on the front line. How they fight, evacuate, and rescue their dudes. Our guys are paying a very high price. They pay with their blood. All I want is to do is go fishing with my dudes, drink some beers and sit in silence”.

    Surrounded by Russians and ready to die, this Ukrainian soldier called in an artillery strike – on his own position

    https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/01/europ...hnk/index.html

    I know CNN is like reading a tabloid - but still this story is crazy. And likely happens every week over there.

  20. #15745
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    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  21. #15746
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    What's a "specialized" car? Are those armored cars? Tanks, maybe???

  22. #15747
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    Quote Originally Posted by PB View Post
    What's a "specialized" car? Are those armored cars? Tanks, maybe???
    They're like regular cars but they have shitty suspension with no anti-squat geometry so they bounce when you push the pedals.

  23. #15748
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    They're like regular cars but they have shitty suspension with no anti-squat geometry so they bounce when you push the pedals.
    Heh.

  24. #15749
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    Quote Originally Posted by PB View Post
    What's a "specialized" car? Are those armored cars? Tanks, maybe???
    I was thinking some type of armored vehicle. Wondering if they were making some light armored military support vehicles at the plant and that's why it was targeted. Seems to be more and more Special Military Operations taking place within Russia's borders.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  25. #15750
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    29 years ago today:

    " The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and The United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

    The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and The United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

    The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and The United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the Principles of the CSCE Final Act, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.
    ..."

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