Ukraine

[dunfree]

the choice to fire an old shitty inaccurate missile at a target anywhere within miles of civilians means you are ok with the chance of killing civilians. Lots of them. Which Russia is. It’s not an accident or a mistake

[Toadman]

I read somewhere, maybe it was the Ukraine MOD site, that Russia is firing an estimated 60k shells a day. I'm guessing when they say shells, they are talking artillery. I just still can't wrap my head around that volume of artillery being fired, and how Ukraine forces can absorb those blows and continue to fight back.

I guess Russia is good at mfg. artillery shells, and vodka.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Honest to dog I cannot believe anyone is arguing about where missles are hitting Ukraine. Missles shouldn't be hitting Ukraine period.

Sounds like people are normalizing this whole thing. Making excuses for what Russia is doing.

My intention is not to ‘normalize’ anything. Any deaths happening in UKR are 100% on RU and Putin. They started this by choice and, they could end it immediately if they wanted to.

I just try to keep myself grounded in the facts, and try to avoid getting myself worked up on the worst interpretations of the horrors we’re witnessing. (Maybe a coping mechanism more than anything….)

[KQ]

My intention is not to ‘normalize’ anything. Any deaths happening in UKR are 100% on RU and Putin. They started this by choice and, they could end it immediately if they wanted to.

I just try to keep myself grounded in the facts, and try to avoid getting myself worked up on the worst interpretations of the horrors we’re witnessing. (Maybe a coping mechanism more than anything….)

LOL! You're just fooling yourself and insulting all those Ukranians Russia has and will displace/rape/kill. The facts are that Russia wants to displace/rape/kill any and all Ukranias regarless of age, sex, health or occupation.

[jono]

LOL! You're just fooling yourself and insulting all those Ukranians Russia has and will displace/rape/kill. The facts are that Russia wants to displace/rape/kill any and all Ukranias regarless of age, sex, health or occupation.

There's no particular disagreement about that, but if they can do it by hitting military targets first and then walking in to finish the job it would be easier for them. That's the point: hitting a mall while Ukrainians hit ammo dumps is not a winning strategy.

[Viva]

I read somewhere, maybe it was the Ukraine MOD site, that Russia is firing an estimated 60k shells a day.

I guess Russia is good at mfg. artillery shells....

If that firing rate is indeed the case, then Russia had better be good at manufacturing replacement tubes and chambers, too.

[abraham]

If that firing rate is indeed the case, then Russia had better be good at manufacturing replacement tubes and chambers, too.

Evidently they're burning through ammo stored in Belarusian depots. Whether or not that's to keep Russian supplies or because they've used them isn't clear.

Honest to dog I cannot believe anyone is arguing about where missles are hitting Ukraine. Missles shouldn't be hitting Ukraine period.

Sounds like people are normalizing this whole thing. Making excuses for what Russia is doing.

Missiles shouldn't be hitting Ukraine at all. I agree completely.

But for anyone who's paid any attention at all over the last decade it is clear that Russia has no problem directly targeting civilians. Including bombing civilians, waiting for responders, then bombing the responders and survivors.

I think it's worth noting whether or not the bombing of a mall was deliberate, like the rockets fired at the train stations or that theater. Or whether it was due to putting equipment to use that isn't fit for purpose. Where they're basically tossing explosives up without any care where they come down, whether it's a military target, industrial site, or just civilians.

Dunfree's added information here is useful.

If the 3.1mile circular error probability number is correct (50% of launches would hit within 3.1 miles of the target) for a KH-22 in land attack mode, missing is pretty much a given.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Russia has and will displace/rape/kill. The facts are that Russia wants to displace/rape/kill any and all Ukranias regarless of age, sex, health or occupation.

I agree with all that, so I don’t think I’m fooling myself, and I’m not trying to fool anyone else. Literally just stating facts as they are known.

[J. Barron DeJong]

https://twitter.com/alina_bondarnk/s...1xp-4aSSHq073A

[Viva]

This is turning into a war of attrition, maybe a very long one. Too bad, doesn’t have to be this way. But no one’s shipping arms to Ukraine quickly enough for them to build a force disparity to escape a war of attrition. Force disparity was long-standing NATO doctrine developed to defeat a Soviet attack with a numerically inferior force through air/land and high technology.

Currently, it kinda looks like the west wants to keep Ukraine in an attrition fight, and this is some what borne out by the G7 statement that I posted of yesterday or a couple of days ago (vide supra). There’s gonna be a lot of support for Ukraine, but nothing substantive enough to end this mess quickly. Ukraine is gonna have to bleed the Russians dry- i.e., a complete exhaustion of manpower. At least they have the political will do it.

But this can take a couple of years, and could take forever if the conflict simmers down to what it was in 2014. I don’t think that that’s gonna happen, though. Russia can still go to full mobilization. More likely they'll just keep doing bite-sized shadow mobilizations, like now, indefinitely.

Of course there’s the chance of some sort of interesting international intervention: a color revolution occurring in Georgia or Belarus; PLA forces begin crossing the Amur River; a complete breakdown of of diplomacy with Kazakhstan, etc. But at this point, I imagine that most would welcome a regime change, which has ended more than a few wars. Rootin’ Putin has, however, taken extraordinary measures to neutralize political threats to his power.

In the meantime, I shall immediately initiate a search for topless images of Alina Bondarenko for next Tuesday.

[LongShortLong]

My read is there is no "end it quickly" for Ukraine. Pretty much, they are getting all the systems they can use as fast as they can use them. Any new system comes with a massive training and logistics backend, and that limits the rate Ukraine can get new equipment. Ukraine's having basic supply problems like getting enough fuel and artillery ammo to the front.

Hypothetically, a country (or several) like the US could stage military assets in a nearby country. After a few months buildup, they could fight on/over Ukraine, fighting the Russians directly, with some coordination/deconfliction with Ukraine's military. We could probably fly air missions now. Few people think this would be a wise escalation though. Maybe it is?

So we're stuck with the rate Ukrainians can train an army, learn new systems, figure out how to integrate them, and establish parts networks and repair depos.

[abraham]

My read is there is no "end it quickly" for Ukraine. Pretty much, they are getting all the systems they can use as fast as they can use them. Any new system comes with a massive training and logistics backend, and that limits the rate Ukraine can get new equipment. Ukraine's having basic supply problems like getting enough fuel and artillery ammo to the front.

Hypothetically, a country (or several) like the US could stage military assets in a nearby country. After a few months buildup, they could fight on/over Ukraine, fighting the Russians directly, with some coordination/deconfliction with Ukraine's military. We could probably fly air missions now. Few people think this would be a wise escalation though. Maybe it is?

So we're stuck with the rate Ukrainians can train an army, learn new systems, figure out how to integrate them, and establish parts networks and repair depos.

This podcast had a useful discussion about the training bottlenecks on the Ukrainian side.
https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR...MmZmNmU2?ep=14

[rod9301]

My read is there is no "end it quickly" for Ukraine. Pretty much, they are getting all the systems they can use as fast as they can use them. Any new system comes with a massive training and logistics backend, and that limits the rate Ukraine can get new equipment. Ukraine's having basic supply problems like getting enough fuel and artillery ammo to the front.

Hypothetically, a country (or several) like the US could stage military assets in a nearby country. After a few months buildup, they could fight on/over Ukraine, fighting the Russians directly, with some coordination/deconfliction with Ukraine's military. We could probably fly air missions now. Few people think this would be a wise escalation though. Maybe it is?

So we're stuck with the rate Ukrainians can train an army, learn new systems, figure out how to integrate them, and establish parts networks and repair depos.

I don't think this would be a wise move. A war between us and Russia would not be good for anybody.

Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

[jono]

It would certainly make it more difficult to collect Russian dividends.

[Cono Este]

Brits lead the way. training Ukranian Artillerymen back in England.

https://youtu.be/sOJ5jbXQIa8


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[neufox47]

Several reports about how effective Ukraine has been with MLRS since deploying them.

https://twitter.com/Flash43191300/st...6710055350273?

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcr...ound-briefing/

And that they are getting more. Hopefully this system will help turn the tide.


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[J. Barron DeJong]

https://twitter.com/gabrielmilland/s...7gXL5wyXnMfa3A

[ex-powderbroker]

Fuck Russia, Fuck Putin.

Let's get that grain out of Odessa with some Navy escorts.

[ötzi]

Let's not be the Uvalde police department taking lunch outside the school while the killings continue inside.

[jono]

Let's not be the Uvalde police department taking lunch outside the school while the killings continue inside.

FKNA

[Toadman]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1542659755306614784

[Bunion 2020]

Let's not be the Uvalde police department taking lunch outside the school while the killings continue inside.

!

[highangle]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1542659755306614784

[KQ]

from my Ukranian friend Nadia in Budapest:

Odessa was just bombed... News like that transport you decades back, to the times you weren't around yet and you wonder if you travelled in time.... Kharkiv, Nikolaev, Kyiv, Kremenchug... when will it stop?

[4matic]

It’s not so simple to military escort grain ships. The ship still has to be insured.