Ukraine

[summit]

My understanding is that Turkey can block entry to belligerents during a conflict. That seems to leave a gaping hole for non-belligerent escort ships. But what port would they go to? Particularly if they wind up having to act. Presumably Turkish ports would be open to NATO vessels, but what then?

Escorts would be probably safer. Working in close proximity to the convoy ships, Russia would essentially risk hitting NATO warships. We'd have to run minesweepers too. It would be like the Tanker War, escorts prevented attacks... mostly. I'm less sanguine on that going hot for a day than when we sank the Iranian navy (Preying Mantis) over their use of mines.

Which port for the merchants? We'd use Odessa.

[Cono Este]

Good article. “Contractors”

“Even if this train-the-trainer concept works, it will take many months for the trainers to be trained and then for them to return to Ukraine and pass the skills on to the actual operators and maintainers. Equipment will be idle while this process plays out.”

“The solution is battlefield contractors (or operational contractor support, as the Department of Defense formally refers to the activities). The Department of Defense defines operational contractor support as the “process of planning for and obtaining supplies, services, and construction from commercial sources in support of CCDR [combatant commandant]-directed operations.” Unlike contractors who work on bases or in factories, these contractors go into conflict zones to conduct a wide variety of services from training to maintenance to translation to security. They are attractive in Ukraine for two reasons.”

https://www.csis.org/analysis/next-s...al-contractors


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[Bunion 2020]

No man, I don’t. All those systems and manuals are in English. Artillery field guns are one thing, but the computer systems used for targeting etc are complex.

Imagine you and I showing up at FT Still and after a week driving away and using that thing precisely? No way. And we speak English.

Summit??


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Seems to me that the Ukrainians have a lot of tech educated people and translating manuals can't really take that long.

[MultiVerse]

FWIW roughly 20% of Ukrainians speak English and most who do are in the younger military age cohort. It's also likely Polish language manuals and training material already exist. Polish is a first language for 15% of Ukrainians and nearly 30% of Ukrainians speak Polish.

[jono]

Escorts would be probably safer. Working in close proximity to the convoy ships, Russia would essentially risk hitting NATO warships. We'd have to run minesweepers too. It would be like the Tanker War, escorts prevented attacks... mostly. I'm less sanguine on that going hot for a day than when we sank the Iranian navy (Preying Mantis) over their use of mines.

Which port for the merchants? We'd use Odessa.

I guess docking a US warship at Odesa is not unlike handing them things at a polish border crossing, but I can see where lots of people would claim that's escalation, given Germany, Bunny, et al. I just assume Turkey would say we couldn't carry through legal aid (except Bayraktars).

[Bunion 2020]

Not taking this out on you or anyone else Jono.

WTF, Putin can hold a large portion of the worlds food supply hostage? Fuck that and fuck him.

[MultiVerse]

It seems like NATO shipping escort has the same fundamental problem as a not fly zone: it only works if NATO is prepared to directly attack Russian military assets.

WTF, Putin can hold a large portion of the worlds food supply hostage? Fuck that and fuck him.

Russian TV talking heads brag about people around the world starving unless they're allied with Russia. They unapologetically promote hunger as a weapon.

[summit]

It seems like NATO shipping escorts has the same fundamental problem as a not fly zone: it only works if NATO is prepared to directly attack Russian military assets.

Not quite. There is more than a subtle difference.

In a no fly zone, Russians are attacking Ukraine over Ukraine, and NATO says "no, leave, and if you come in we'll shoot you down."

With escorts, we have our ships right next to the merchants. Russia is thus deterred from attacking that NATO ship formation of non-Ukrainian flagged vessels that is mostly in international waters. If Russia attacks they'll be shooting at NATO flagged ship, merchant or warship. NATO then defends.

Instead of "is NATO willing to fire first at Russia" it becomes "is Russia willing to fire first at NATO." The answer to both of those questions is no. Because of that, convoy escort makes sense while a no-fly does not.

[MultiVerse]

Fair enough, it's different but it still calls for NATO confrontation. NATO's current position:

NATO said it is not considering a naval mission to escort Black Sea ships as countries are wary of being dragged into potential conflict with Russia.

“Russia’s naval presence in the Black Sea has disrupted maritime commerce even before its invasion of Ukraine,” NATO said in response to calls for naval escorts in the Black Sea.

“NATO is not considering a naval mission to escort ships in the Black Sea, but NATO allies that have coastal borders — Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey — have deployed ships to find and neutralize any mines that may be in the area.”

Any naval mission conducted under a NATO flag by allied ships would require the support of all 30 alliance members.

https://www.ft.com/content/8479d736-...4-7066682e63c0

[summit]

Fair enough, it's different but NATO still has to attack Russian military assets.

Only if Russia attacks first. And they won't. That is the difference.

In a no-fly-zone, Russia can fly in and keep bombing unless NATO is willing to fire first, which they are not willing to do. NATO loses. The world laughs.

NATO convoys get through unless Russia is willing to fire first, which they are not willing to do. NATO wins. The world eats.

[highangle]

Only if Russia attacks first. And they won't. That is the difference.

In a no-fly-zone, Russia can fly in and keep bombing unless NATO is willing to fire first, which they are not willing to do. NATO loses. The world laughs.

NATO convoys get through unless Russia is willing to fire first, which they are not willing to do. NATO wins. The world eats.

Russians claim "Territorial waters" and mine the shipping lanes. Is this an "Attack"?

[summit]

Russians mine the shipping lanes. "Attack"?

Well, they already have laid mines and several non-Ukrainian ships have struck mines or even sank... nobody has attacked Russia over it.

[highangle]

Well, they already have laid mines and several non-Ukrainian ships have struck mines or even sank... nobody has attacked Russia over it.

Lloyd's has had the Black Sea and Sea of Azov in War Risk since Feb 16. No insured dry bulk, container, or tanker shipping in there since then. Anything that happens in there from now on has to be supported by minesweepers, or occur in mineswept channels with traffic separation schemes and 24/7 military presence - a Strait of Hormuz for wheat and vegetable oil.

It'll be a hella good place to start a flour mill after the war.

[highangle]

@ 5:16 Russian TV guys with itchy nukleare fiingers^^^ Meanwhile, Lavrov plays victim and accuses West of waging a "Total war" on poor poor Russian people and culture...


As to well-built Russkie trenches: Switchblades and robo rocket grenade launcher mini tanks that can clear trenches lengthwise, like fucking Pacman.
I can't be the 1st fucking guy who ever thought of that...

[bennymac]

“Footage of British and American volunteers in Ukraine striking a Russian BTR“

https://www.reddit.com/r/Military/co...volunteers_in/

[Percy Rideout]

Our (American) news is filled with burnt Russian armor, a tale of laughable incompetence amongst the Russian ranks, and a story of Ukraine kicking Russia's ass with NATO support.

The truth is a BIT different on the ground. Russia is pressing on and is most of the way to their not so secret objective...A land bridge to Crimea AKA their annexed port in the Black Sea. This is their strategic access to the Med. This has always been the plan.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

"UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says Russian forces are "continuing to chew through ground" in the Donbas region, making "slow, but I'm afraid palpable, progress."

The article linked above show where the Russians control, and has excellent maps showing their....successful advances.

Meanwhile our American News trots out articles like this...

https://time.com/6177391/ukraine-mariupol-steel-plant/

That's a wild ass way to say the UKR troops surrendered and were captured by RU. They literally used every word they could besides "surrender" and "taken prisoner". This is the real misinformation campaign waged against us Americans.

Russia will meet their strategic objective sooner than later, despite NATO's best efforts and Western $$$ and armor. What happens next?

[MultiVerse]

Russia's overarching strategic objective remains regime change for the purpose of turning all of Ukraine into a vassal state like Belarus. Russia isn't going to achieve its goal thanks to Ukrainian resistance. As for the rest of Percy's self described 'revelations' they've all been previously, recently, and openly discussed, including over the past couple of pages.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Our (American) news is filled with burnt Russian armor, a tale of laughable incompetence amongst the Russian ranks, and a story of Ukraine kicking Russia's ass with NATO support.

The truth is a BIT different on the ground. Russia is pressing on and is most of the way to their not so secret objective...A land bridge to Crimea AKA their annexed port in the Black Sea. This is their strategic access to the Med. This has always been the plan.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

"UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says Russian forces are "continuing to chew through ground" in the Donbas region, making "slow, but I'm afraid palpable, progress."

The article linked above show where the Russians control, and has excellent maps showing their....successful advances.

Meanwhile our American News trots out articles like this...

https://time.com/6177391/ukraine-mariupol-steel-plant/

That's a wild ass way to say the UKR troops surrendered and were captured by RU. They literally used every word they could besides "surrender" and "taken prisoner". This is the real misinformation campaign waged against us Americans.

Russia will meet their strategic objective sooner than later, despite NATO's best efforts and Western $$$ and armor. What happens next?

Russia has been making small gains, but nothing major. So not really clear that they’ll meet their objective soon, although I guess that depends on how you define their objective.



thread: https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/...593JHXHrdsxx6Q

If Russia can only advance that slowly on a small front what are the odds they can hold it long term? Is it in UKR interest (or anyone else’s) to give in now because RU has made some minor gains over a week or two?

Certainly worth considering what to do if RU can continue making gains, but I don’t think we’re anywhere near the scenario where it makes sense for UKR to just give up.

[neufox47]

Our (American) news is filled with burnt Russian armor, a tale of laughable incompetence amongst the Russian ranks, and a story of Ukraine kicking Russia's ass with NATO support.

The truth is a BIT different on the ground. Russia is pressing on and is most of the way to their not so secret objective...A land bridge to Crimea AKA their annexed port in the Black Sea. This is their strategic access to the Med. This has always been the plan.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

"UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says Russian forces are "continuing to chew through ground" in the Donbas region, making "slow, but I'm afraid palpable, progress."

The article linked above show where the Russians control, and has excellent maps showing their....successful advances.

Meanwhile our American News trots out articles like this...

https://time.com/6177391/ukraine-mariupol-steel-plant/

That's a wild ass way to say the UKR troops surrendered and were captured by RU. They literally used every word they could besides "surrender" and "taken prisoner". This is the real misinformation campaign waged against us Americans.

Russia will meet their strategic objective sooner than later, despite NATO's best efforts and Western $$$ and armor. What happens next?

Ukraine is adding soldiers and arms daily while Russia is losing it. The ground Russia takes will be extremely difficult for them to hold and they are already getting extended on supply lines. The conflict doesn’t stop when Russia takes ground. They have to hold it, with a hostile populace and while under attack. The question is whether the West holds out and continue supplying them with arms or fold and allow Ukraine to be slaughtered and enslaved. We all know which side you sit on.

[dunfree]

Our (American) news is filled with burnt Russian armor, a tale of laughable incompetence amongst the Russian ranks, and a story of Ukraine kicking Russia's ass with NATO support.

The truth is a BIT different on the ground. Russia is pressing on and is most of the way to their not so secret objective...A land bridge to Crimea AKA their annexed port in the Black Sea. This is their strategic access to the Med. This has always been the plan.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

"UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says Russian forces are "continuing to chew through ground" in the Donbas region, making "slow, but I'm afraid palpable, progress."

The article linked above show where the Russians control, and has excellent maps showing their....successful advances.

Meanwhile our American News trots out articles like this...

https://time.com/6177391/ukraine-mariupol-steel-plant/

That's a wild ass way to say the UKR troops surrendered and were captured by RU. They literally used every word they could besides "surrender" and "taken prisoner". This is the real misinformation campaign waged against us Americans.

Russia will meet their strategic objective sooner than later, despite NATO's best efforts and Western $$$ and armor. What happens next?

asspen loves nothing better than to suck dictator dick, hate freedom, and hate the usa.


it takes a moron and a troll to say Russia will meet their strategic objectives. They wanted the whole country on the cheap, cuck. The best they’ll get us a polluted wasteland they can turn into a Black Sea beach resort where you’ll go pay for sex.

[dunfree]

Russia's overarching strategic objective remains regime change for the purpose of turning all of Ukraine into a vassal state like Belarus. Russia isn't going to achieve its goal thanks to Ukrainian resistance. As for the rest of Percy's self described 'revelations' they've all been previously, recently, and openly discussed, including over the past couple of pages.

And a stronger Russia. ​Pulverizing a thousand tanks doesn’t get you there.

[Toadman]

Russia will meet their strategic objective sooner than later, despite NATO's best efforts and Western $$$ and armor. What happens next?

Then it's on to Moldova, Transnistria, Poland, Belarus, Latvia and Lithuania.

[skaredshtles]

Then it's on to Moldova, Transnistria, Poland, Belarus, Latvia and Lithuania.

Let's not forget Sweden and Finland!

[J. Barron DeJong]

While not the end of the world, this doesn’t seem like great news. Hopefully UKR can hold/push back:



https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/statu...Ll0LlnZamJdyJw

[TBS]

^^^UKR forces pulled out of Lyman 5/25
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...essment-may-27

RUS & UKR are locked in the 21st century equivalent of a Viking shield wall, pounding each other over meters of ground.