Ukraine

[ötzi]

.
...the Marines inside Azovstal will resupply...

Kinda been wondering about that, are there any theories about where they're getting supplies?

Sinko de Markov?

Olé? Olav?

[TBS]

Kinda been wondering about that, are there any theories about where they're getting supplies?

My understanding is they laid in food, water, ammo, medical supplies, etc. for like six months with no resupply before the seige, knowing it was close to impenetrable. I've read it's deep enough and well enough reinforced to withstand bunker busters. Open issue is - 6 months supplies for how many? A lot of civilians took refuge there.

The Russians aren't going to take that place without chemical or nuclear weapons. It's the latest version of the Viet Cong tunnels or the sewers of St Petersburg.

Once the Orcs reduce their presence, the Ukranians will find a way to resupply the steelworks as a base of operations. I keep gaining respect for their resourcefulness (and applied use of US intelligence)

ETA - NY Times is reporting breach of Azovstal

furious close-quarters combat shook the sprawling Azovstal steel plant, as Russian forces finally began to penetrate the complex where the last Ukrainians have held out for two months in a warren of underground bunkers. The number of Ukrainian fighters remaining is unclear, but Ukrainian officials said that even after a recent trickle of evacuations, about 200 civilians are still trapped there.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05...ussia-war-news

Still gonna be a tough assault by the Orcs - multi-layer tunnels, vaults, boilers, pipes create a gazillion ambush opportunities

[dunfree]

Kinda been wondering about that, are there any theories about where they're getting supplies?



Olé? Olav?

until a little over a month ago Mariupol was getting chopper resupply via Ukraine helicopters. Those pilots could open haircut salons

[neufox47]

There has also been talk of them using drones to ferry supplies to them.


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[uglymoney]

Attachment 415555

Information black hole on this one.

Definitely a good stream to keep an eye on. Hopefully more information comes in.

[ötzi]

I wonder if the Ukrainians will blow something up near Red Square on the 9th with Putin on national TV.

[uglymoney]

I wonder if the Ukrainians will blow something up near Red Square on the 9th with Putin on national TV.

I would think they would be looking to interrupt Putins fascist ego parade in Mariupol.

We will see.


https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1...2pLP4tDaw&s=19


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[4matic]

I would think they would be looking to interrupt Putins fascist ego parade in Mariupol.

We will see.


https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1...2pLP4tDaw&s=19


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Might that just give resolve to the citizenry that reinforces the propaganda?

[TahoeJ]

Might that just give resolve to the citizenry that reinforces the propaganda?

Does it matter? If it didn’t happen they’d just make up some other shit anyway…

[jono]

Information black hole on this one.

Definitely a good stream to keep an eye on. Hopefully more information comes in.

Looking improbable. Unless the boat was rotating real quick, the camera was super shitty but close, or flying at mach 2 the footage looks created. Osint twits reporting no signs of rescue either on satellite imagery or radio traffic. Pity.

[uglymoney]

Looking improbable. Unless the boat was rotating real quick, the camera was super shitty but close, or flying at mach 2 the footage looks created. Osint twits reporting no signs of rescue either on satellite imagery or radio traffic. Pity.

Zero new light sheddding information today so far. Nobody quoting sources. Much different scenario than post strike with the Moskva.


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[summit]

It was at least a mission kill (ship won't be fighting soon). Whether it sank or survived... and the ship is worth repairing, who knows.

[dunfree]

Looking improbable. Unless the boat was rotating real quick, the camera was super shitty but close, or flying at mach 2 the footage looks created. Osint twits reporting no signs of rescue either on satellite imagery or radio traffic. Pity.

or it’s a long range video.

[jono]

or it’s a long range video.

In which case the plane was going very, very fast to turn 90 degrees of a circle in 30 seconds.

Here's a thread:

https://mobile.twitter.com/OAlexande...47006483697664

[J. Barron DeJong]

[summit]

CIA believes Putin will double down

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ys-2022-05-07/

[PB]

Well duh; escalate to de-escalate.

[ötzi]

That doesn't even mean anything. "Double down"? How so?

[muted reborn]

That article is a shoe-in for a pulitzer prize.

[PB]

That doesn't even mean anything. "Double down"? How so?

RLY
Everyone knows you have deca .... whatever, to be on the Orange Shit Gibbon's level. As in 10x down.

[LongShortLong]

Double down means Russian 2nd 200,000 man army begins exercises just across the border from Ukraine. Then... blyat... and Profit
Putin's being nice this whole time, going easy on the little russians. Now double nice, and down???

idk, maybe he plans to lose men and materiel twice as fast.

My understanding from reading some of the armchair generals, and listening to think tanks is Russia doesn't have any more armies they can use. They are likely losing. Until losing is revealed on the battlefield, and Putin recognizes it, he may double down some more cities, Ukrainians, and army folks, but there really isn't any more bite.

The armchair logistics guys think Russia's used its best equipment, and the replacements will be worse. Ukraine otoh is getting modern replacements and upgrades from its supporters. Russia is not mobilized, and is short on officers, meaning it's hard for them to train and field a new army. Ukraine is mobilized and likely training a new army. So the war in the east is probably like the battle of Kyiv. It looks like not much is happening and maybe Russia is slowly winning, but what's likely really happening is Russia suffering severe attrition leading to a collapse and withdrawal. Both sides have logistics difficulties, and either could run out of a critical war supply.

There is some chance the Ukrainians are spent, though the battlefield doesn't show it yet (and they are regaining more territory than they are losing). I suppose there's some chance Putin can keep what he's captured. There's also some chance Russia keeps it and does ok economically - the price of food and energy is up, and odds are they'll be able earn export income about as much as usual. It's unlikely the west backs down anytime soon. With Russia's dependency on the west for technical goods, they're gonna have a few rough quarters manufacturing anything until they can get smuggling and Chinese/other imports going.

[ötzi]

He can't double down on the troops, tanks and missiles, he doesn't have them to use. Also running a bit short on a lot of other stuff already. He can go chem or nuclear is about it. I guess we'll see.

[abraham]

There have been some cool videos of Ukrainian planes flying low. https://www.twitter.com/CalibreObscu...53853381378049

The snake island airstrike video is impressive too.
https://www.twitter.com/UAWeapons/st...27490230444035
Or for the short attention spans among us. Ötzi
https://www.twitter.com/Guardian_Mar...46827305562112

The armchair logistics guys think Russia's used its best equipment, and the replacements will be worse. Ukraine otoh is getting modern replacements and upgrades from its supporters. Russia is not mobilized, and is short on officers, meaning it's hard for them to train and field a new army. Ukraine is mobilized and likely training a new army. So the war in the east is probably like the battle of Kyiv. It looks like not much is happening and maybe Russia is slowly winning, but what's likely really happening is Russia suffering severe attrition leading to a collapse and withdrawal. Both sides have logistics difficulties, and either could run out of a critical war supply.

There is some chance the Ukrainians are spent, though the battlefield doesn't show it yet (and they are regaining more territory than they are losing). I suppose there's some chance Putin can keep what he's captured. There's also some chance Russia keeps it and does ok economically - the price of food and energy is up, and odds are they'll be able earn export income about as much as usual. It's unlikely the west backs down anytime soon. With Russia's dependency on the west for technical goods, they're gonna have a few rough quarters manufacturing anything until they can get smuggling and Chinese/other imports going.

They're forcibly conscripting Ukrainians in occupied territory (including Lukhansk and Donetsk) and sending them to fight against Ukraine. Many of the worst equipped soldiers at the moment seem to be conscripts.


For anyone interested in the Bayraktar drones, the modern war institute had a good podcast about them. There some interesting information in there. https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-bay...ry-of-a-drone/

[summit]

LSL that's about my understanding too.

Conscripting non-Russian Ukrainians a bad strategy... they'll just defect. Russia doesn't have Blocking Battalions like in the Great Patriotic War (those were the soldiers charged with shooting their own people if they tried to retreat or surrender).

Russia could mobilize. They have a lot of reserves, but it would be costly and time consuming to train up the the mobilization and restore that equipment to combat readiness.

That would be scary as there is a good chance that would lead to revolts and instability in Russia... and if not... an army of several million more Orcs...

If not, Ukraine will likely have enough forces trained up soon to push the Russians harder and back out of the areas they've taken, as long as the West equips them.

[rideit]

So, supposedly all civilians have been evacuated from the steel plant. My pessimistic thought on this is that there will now be a massacre of the remaining soldiers, just in time for a ‘victory celebration’ on the ninth.