Page 335 of 360 FirstFirst ... 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 ... LastLast
Results 8,351 to 8,375 of 8979

Thread: Ukraine

  1. #8351
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    In your Dreams
    Posts
    552
    Quote Originally Posted by XavierD View Post
    Trucks/trains + Spare parts will be the limiting factor for the Russian war effort. Not munitions.
    Blunting Germany's capability to resupply the Axis troops was as big a factor in winning as the Red Ball Express in supplying the Allies. My hope is for success with the new weapons systems on the way. Then the Ukes will be able accurately target the Ruskies long range weapons.
    Seeker of Truth. Dispenser of Wisdom. Protector of the Weak. Avenger of Evil.

  2. #8352
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    2 hours from anything
    Posts
    9,841
    https://www.thebulwark.com/how-to-co...n-ukraine/?amp

    Interesting article about what Ukraine needs to do to counter Russian artillery


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  3. #8353
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    11,592

    Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Cisco Kid View Post
    Blunting Germany's capability to resupply the Axis troops was as big a factor in winning as the Red Ball Express in supplying the Allies. My hope is for success with the new weapons systems on the way. Then the Ukes will be able accurately target the Ruskies long range weapons.
    That’s not going to happen. We’re not sending them enough, and if we sent them long range weapons to hit inside Russian supply lines the scope of the war would widen. Biden is not going to do that.

    So we’ve basically limited what we’re sending them and tied one hand behind their back on conditions. Meanwhile Russia, which is directly next store, can do whatever they want including driving supplies right into Ukraine via rail.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  4. #8354
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    7,350
    A month ago you were sure the Ukrainians couldn't learn to use HIMARS, too.

  5. #8355
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    8,529
    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    A month ago you were sure the Ukrainians couldn't learn to use HIMARS, too.
    Let’s go a bit further back to when he said Ukraine was corrupt and full of Nazis

  6. #8356
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Location
    in a freezer in Italy
    Posts
    5,309
    Unguided artillery is great at smashing stuff that's just sitting there, not so much at hitting stuff that moves. Plus the Russians have mobility issues. Seems like getting out of the way while they smash empty shit and then coming back when they're trying to move their stuff around would be the play.

  7. #8357
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    11,592
    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    A month ago you were sure the Ukrainians couldn't learn to use HIMARS, too.
    They are still having problems. Read that article about artillery.

    You guys are nuts if you think you can learn that shit In a week.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  8. #8358
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    7,350
    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    They are still having problems. Read that article about artillery.

    You guys are nuts if you think you can learn that shit In a week.
    Lol. The article is about to be 3 weeks old. And you were concerned they couldn't learn in 3 weeks--but that was a month ago. Everyone else is nuts. Yup.

  9. #8359
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    907
    Posts
    14,320
    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    They are still having problems. Read that article about artillery.

    You guys are nuts if you think you can learn that shit In a week.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

    You couldn't learn it in a decade...
    Ever heard of "civilian techreps"? Myeah.

  10. #8360
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    907
    Posts
    14,320
    Quote Originally Posted by ötzi View Post
    Unguided artillery is great at smashing stuff that's just sitting there, not so much at hitting stuff that moves. Plus the Russians have mobility issues. Seems like getting out of the way while they smash empty shit and then coming back when they're trying to move their stuff around would be the play.
    Or mass drone attacks while they're firing and revealing their positions to counterbattery radars?


    Pretty sure the Ukes thought this eventuality through, since it's old Soviet doctrine, and the Russkies haven't evolved one whit since the Soviet days.

  11. #8361
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    关你屁事
    Posts
    7,184
    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    Lol. The article is about to be 3 weeks old. And you were concerned they couldn't learn in 3 weeks--but that was a month ago. Everyone else is nuts. Yup.
    Its really a tossup between “the west isn’t providing enough weapons fast enough and Ukraine can’t learn the weapons we need to give them” and “Russia has vast untapped non-nuclear modern combat capability it could deploy in Ukraine if it wanted with no strategic penalty , but it’s happy shredding new and old gear at the same time” for narratives that don’t pass the smell test. Yup, Russia just left a Pantsir SAM on snake island because they can build new better ones asap.
    Last edited by dunfree ; 07-03-2022 at 03:09 PM.

  12. #8362
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    7,350
    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    Its really a tossup between “the west isn’t providing enough weapons fast enough and Ukraine can’t learn the weapons we need to give them” and “Russia has vast untapped non-nuclear modern combat capability it could deploy in Ukraine if it wanted with no strategic penalty , but it’s happy shredding new and old gear at the same time” for narratives that don’t pass the smell test. Yup, Russia just left a Pantsir SAM on snake island because they can build new better ones asap.
    For me, the last pre-escalation hope was that Russia would consider the significant strategic risk of being embarrassed by Ukraine and what that would cost. It seemed like a rational consideration, even if the probability was deemed low. And now maybe they're holding back their best equipment for the same reason. But with hindsight, the only way that makes any sense to me is if they have basically no confidence at all on that equipment. Even if they're really desperate to keep those assets from going up against NATO, what's the difference?

    I just don't see the rationale. Most likely they know exactly what paper tigers they have in reserve.

    To paraphrase some lost tweet: the only people who overestimate Russia are the ones who don't study Russia. (Obviously us non-experts get to decide for ourselves.)

  13. #8363
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Location
    in a freezer in Italy
    Posts
    5,309
    There are some Russian military hardware customers who would like to see if their supplier has anything in stock that actually works.

  14. #8364
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    7,350
    Quote Originally Posted by ötzi View Post
    There are some Russian military hardware customers who would like to see if their supplier has anything in stock that actually works.
    Exactly. And some Russian arms manufacturers who aren't too keen to give demonstrations. That's before we talk strategic deterrent value.

  15. #8365
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    907
    Posts
    14,320
    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    For me, the last pre-escalation hope was that Russia would consider the significant strategic risk of being embarrassed by Ukraine and what that would cost. It seemed like a rational consideration, even if the probability was deemed low. And now maybe they're holding back their best equipment for the same reason. But with hindsight, the only way that makes any sense to me is if they have basically no confidence at all on that equipment. Even if they're really desperate to keep those assets from going up against NATO, what's the difference?

    I just don't see the rationale. Most likely they know exactly what paper tigers they have in reserve.

    To paraphrase some lost tweet: the only people who overestimate Russia are the ones who don't study Russia. (Obviously us non-experts get to decide for ourselves.)

    The biggest problem with Russians is: Get more than 2 of them in a room together, and one of them will start calling himself "General"...


    I have a little theory that PootyPoot may have been sucka'd into this Z-invasion by purposely inaccurate intelligence of Ukraine, and of Russian strength. Same way they told him supply trucks were ready to roll and T72 reactive armor will stop a missile...

    If you're gonna be an Eye in a Tower [Brain in a Vat], you best have good ways to sense the world around you.

  16. #8366
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    Bellevue
    Posts
    7,311
    Quote Originally Posted by highangle View Post
    The biggest problem with Russians is: Get more than 2 of them in a room together, and one of them will start calling himself "General"...
    Apparently that doesn't extend to Belarusians.
    https://youtu.be/1JNtiO7nhmo

  17. #8367
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    907
    Posts
    14,320
    Quote Originally Posted by abraham View Post
    Apparently that doesn't extend to Belarusians.
    https://youtu.be/1JNtiO7nhmo
    Lol notice how if Daddy Poot was there to make Z+2 gopniks, he'd have to be General? qed


  18. #8368
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    7,558
    Quote Originally Posted by abraham View Post
    Apparently that doesn't extend to Belarusians.
    https://youtu.be/1JNtiO7nhmo
    That was ...... hilarious.
    But more importantly, scary as fuck given it was Lukashenko.

  19. #8369
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Posts
    1,666
    Quote Originally Posted by highangle View Post
    I have a little theory that PootyPoot may have been sucka'd into this Z-invasion by purposely inaccurate intelligence of Ukraine, and of Russian strength.
    I think that’s probably right. But I don’t think it’s like they we trying to trick him into doing it just in this particular instance. Guys like Putin won’t abide hearing the truth when it doesn’t match what they want to be told, so they’re left surrounded by only those who will tell them what they want to hear.

    In this case, Putin wanted to know he could easily win a war against UKR, so that’s what those surrounding him told him would happen.

  20. #8370
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    voting in seattle
    Posts
    4,930
    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    Entertain us, and please go into specifics.
    Similar to how the United States withheld capabilities in our last two decades experience in the Middle East and Central Asia Adventure Zones, Russia doesn’t need to use everything in Ukraine as neither are fights for survival. Russia is still a country if they lose this war.
    Basically they are holding back the capabilities they feel risking would expose them to aggression from NATO or China. Primarily strategic air power as well as the majority of their precision and rapid response artillery. Shit that’s expensive and not easily replaced. . They have made minimal effort to dominate the Ukrainian sky. Most of their fighters and bombers are staying outside of Ukraine. Ukrainian artillery is getting all day to fire and jump. Yes they are still getting hit with counter battery but it’s relatively unresponsive. To me that says they aren’t deploying their doctrinal artillery to ground unit ratios. Even while withholding significant artillery capabilities Russia is still outshooting Ukraine. They just have more.

    EW capabilities they don’t want us to sniff and collect intelligence on. Ukraine continues to talk and use radar effectively and accurately. They aren’t getting spoofed of jammed with the effects Russia has previously demonstrated capacity. Once they use these systems in a battle field like Ukraine they become exposed for us to collect on and start developing technological and tactical counter measures. Same with China.

  21. #8371
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    voting in seattle
    Posts
    4,930
    Quote Originally Posted by highangle View Post
    I have a little theory that PootyPoot may have been sucka'd into this Z-invasion by purposely inaccurate intelligence of Ukraine, and of Russian strength.
    We came to the same assessment pre-invasion.

  22. #8372
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    7,350
    Quote Originally Posted by XavierD View Post
    Similar to how the United States withheld capabilities in our last two decades experience in the Middle East and Central Asia Adventure Zones, Russia doesn’t need to use everything in Ukraine as neither are fights for survival. Russia is still a country if they lose this war.
    Basically they are holding back the capabilities they feel risking would expose them to aggression from NATO or China. Primarily strategic air power as well as the majority of their precision and rapid response artillery. Shit that’s expensive and not easily replaced. . They have made minimal effort to dominate the Ukrainian sky. Most of their fighters and bombers are staying outside of Ukraine. Ukrainian artillery is getting all day to fire and jump. Yes they are still getting hit with counter battery but it’s relatively unresponsive. To me that says they aren’t deploying their doctrinal artillery to ground unit ratios. Even while withholding significant artillery capabilities Russia is still outshooting Ukraine. They just have more.

    EW capabilities they don’t want us to sniff and collect intelligence on. Ukraine continues to talk and use radar effectively and accurately. They aren’t getting spoofed of jammed with the effects Russia has previously demonstrated capacity. Once they use these systems in a battle field like Ukraine they become exposed for us to collect on and start developing technological and tactical counter measures. Same with China.
    This makes sense WRT whole different weapon systems and anything that represents a huge escalation. But is there anything in that set of tools that has any chance to be deployed in Ukraine? Is there a grey area between what they're willing to sacrifice and either strategic deterrent or just much more expensive weapons that they hope not to use but might decide to in a pinch?

    It seems like there's a very different answer to some of this than is imagined by those who think everything we could do leads directly to WWIII.

  23. #8373
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Down In A Hole, Up in the Sky
    Posts
    32,497
    Thank you, that was illuminating. And a wee bit depressing.
    Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident

  24. #8374
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    11,592
    Quote Originally Posted by XavierD View Post
    Similar to how the United States withheld capabilities in our last two decades experience in the Middle East and Central Asia Adventure Zones, Russia doesn’t need to use everything in Ukraine as neither are fights for survival. Russia is still a country if they lose this war.
    Basically they are holding back the capabilities they feel risking would expose them to aggression from NATO or China. Primarily strategic air power as well as the majority of their precision and rapid response artillery. Shit that’s expensive and not easily replaced. . They have made minimal effort to dominate the Ukrainian sky. Most of their fighters and bombers are staying outside of Ukraine. Ukrainian artillery is getting all day to fire and jump. Yes they are still getting hit with counter battery but it’s relatively unresponsive. To me that says they aren’t deploying their doctrinal artillery to ground unit ratios. Even while withholding significant artillery capabilities Russia is still outshooting Ukraine. They just have more.

    EW capabilities they don’t want us to sniff and collect intelligence on. Ukraine continues to talk and use radar effectively and accurately. They aren’t getting spoofed of jammed with the effects Russia has previously demonstrated capacity. Once they use these systems in a battle field like Ukraine they become exposed for us to collect on and start developing technological and tactical counter measures. Same with China.
    Russia is holding back its Air Force because of all the manpads nato has sent. Same with Javelins. Very effective but as in any war they’ve adapted and changed tactics.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  25. #8375
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    关你屁事
    Posts
    7,184
    EW capabilities they don’t want us to sniff and collect intelligence on. Ukraine continues to talk and use radar effectively and accurately. They aren’t getting spoofed of jammed with the effects Russia has previously demonstrated capacity. Once they use these systems in a battle field like Ukraine they become exposed for us to collect on and start developing technological and tactical counter measures. Same with China.
    demonstrably false, with evidence, but you gotta sell your narrative and you ain’t gonna change. Russia has used most of their demonstrated nonnuclear toolbox, but sporadically and thus ineffectively, and the question should be if they even could deploy effectively (do they have these systems en masse with trained personnel?). Anyways, we’re up to over 10% of their modern combat choppers lost so far.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •