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Thread: Ukraine

  1. #5801
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    i don’t think there’s been substantial resettlement in the occupied regions from 2014. Just crime ridden weakened shitholes that are an economic drag.

    IOW: Russification

  2. #5802
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    Kommisar Binkov runs the numbers



    Good analysis
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  3. #5803
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    You talk like you know anything more than he does.
    Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident

  4. #5804
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    Quote Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong View Post
    The details seem to have been a bit lacking in this invasion plan. Perhaps this is just one more that was overlooked?
    if you start with the assumption Ukraine isn’t areal country, then believe you’ve bought off or undermined a bunch of the power structure, then the plan begins to make sense. Once that failed, the rotten piece of Russian shit couldn’t adjust. Now they are gonna keep murdering civilians and throwing Russian troops into the grinder until they ( and the western trash that runs apologia for Putin) get some result they can pretend they were trying for all along. Likely the DNR and LNR and the seaside.

  5. #5805
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    if you start with the assumption Ukraine isn’t areal country, then believe you’ve bought off or undermined a bunch of the power structure, then the plan begins to make sense. Once that failed, the rotten piece of Russian shit couldn’t adjust. Now they are gonna keep murdering civilians and throwing Russian troops into the grinder until they ( and the western trash that runs apologia for Putin) get some result they can pretend they were trying for all along. Likely the DNR and LNR and the seaside.
    That would be a mistake. In a just world, the terms should center on the continued existence of Putinism/Russian aggression in a much reduced form or not at all. No to butchers.

  6. #5806
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    You talk like this is over.
    Those are takeaways from the interview, not necessarily my predictions... you quisling wanker.

    Although no matter how this plays out, Putin's war with Ukraine is even now one of the most epic failures in modern history.

  7. #5807
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongShortLong View Post
    That would be a mistake. In a just world, the terms should center on the continued existence of Putinism/Russian aggression in a much reduced form or not at all. No to butchers.
    This is what I was getting at with my Treaty of Versailles thing above. How do you you get to a ‘just’ conclusion of this that also sets up long term recovery and stability?

  8. #5808
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongShortLong View Post
    That would be a mistake. In a just world, the terms should center on the continued existence of Putinism/Russian aggression in a much reduced form or not at all. No to butchers.
    Ukraine likely needs more heavy weapons yesterday to substantially alter this

  9. #5809
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    Quote Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong View Post
    This is what I was getting at with my Treaty of Versailles thing above. How do you you get to a ‘just’ conclusion of this that also sets up long term recovery and stability?
    I sure don't know. There's also the question of possible outcomes. If Russia is severely weakened, closing out its foreign occupations becomes possible. There would remain the difficulty of internal Russian change, as you point out. Currently, there's some hopeful signs that Ukraine can win its war, but no guarantee, and the signs may be illusory. IMO, Europe should maximally support Ukraine, and the other western allies as well.

    It's difficult to see long term recovery without removing Putinism. I see only low probabilities of removing Putinism. One outcome is a Korea style DMZ. Still no peace there, but long term recovery for one combatant, and stability for both. If this is the path, I sure hope that DMZ is in Russia. That said, I'm no fan of a future Kim Jong Putin. One nuclear armed isolated dictator is too many already.

    Ultimately, the Russian leader is forced to mostly follow the desires of the Russian people. With the current nature of media control there, Russian leaders will continue on the imperial Russia theme. This is a problem in many other dictatorships as well. When the Russian diaspora cannot convince their families of simple truths, what does anyone else do, and how can Russia change?

    I see ideas about economic strains causing a blame game, resulting in regional fragmentation of Russia. That seems low probability.

    In short, I see only low probability of any path to a just conclusion.

    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    Ukraine likely needs more heavy weapons yesterday to substantially alter this
    That would help

  10. #5810
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongShortLong View Post
    I sure don't know. There's also the question of possible outcomes. If Russia is severely weakened, closing out its foreign occupations becomes possible. There would remain the difficulty of internal Russian change, as you point out. Currently, there's some hopeful signs that Ukraine can win its war, but no guarantee, and the signs may be illusory. IMO, Europe should maximally support Ukraine, and the other western allies as well.

    It's difficult to see long term recovery without removing Putinism. I see only low probabilities of removing Putinism. One outcome is a Korea style DMZ. Still no peace there, but long term recovery for one combatant, and stability for both. If this is the path, I sure hope that DMZ is in Russia. That said, I'm no fan of a future Kim Jong Putin. One nuclear armed isolated dictator is too many already.

    Ultimately, the Russian leader is forced to mostly follow the desires of the Russian people. With the current nature of media control there, Russian leaders will continue on the imperial Russia theme. This is a problem in many other dictatorships as well. When the Russian diaspora cannot convince their families of simple truths, what does anyone else do, and how can Russia change?

    I see ideas about economic strains causing a blame game, resulting in regional fragmentation of Russia. That seems low probability.

    In short, I see only low probability of any path to a just conclusion.



    That would help
    Working with Europe to make sure Ukraine wins this war and leaves Russia weakened would also weaken China since their energy ally may become more aligned with Europe should Putin get removed from office.
    Damn shame, throwing away a perfectly good white boy like that

  11. #5811
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongShortLong View Post
    I sure don't know. There's also the question of possible outcomes. If Russia is severely weakened, closing out its foreign occupations becomes possible. There would remain the difficulty of internal Russian change, as you point out. Currently, there's some hopeful signs that Ukraine can win its war, but no guarantee, and the signs may be illusory. IMO, Europe should maximally support Ukraine, and the other western allies as well.

    It's difficult to see long term recovery without removing Putinism. I see only low probabilities of removing Putinism. One outcome is a Korea style DMZ. Still no peace there, but long term recovery for one combatant, and stability for both. If this is the path, I sure hope that DMZ is in Russia. That said, I'm no fan of a future Kim Jong Putin. One nuclear armed isolated dictator is too many already.

    Ultimately, the Russian leader is forced to mostly follow the desires of the Russian people. With the current nature of media control there, Russian leaders will continue on the imperial Russia theme. This is a problem in many other dictatorships as well. When the Russian diaspora cannot convince their families of simple truths, what does anyone else do, and how can Russia change?

    I see ideas about economic strains causing a blame game, resulting in regional fragmentation of Russia. That seems low probability.

    In short, I see only low probability of any path to a just conclusion.



    That would help
    Germany after WW2 gives me a touch of hope, but I think the fact that Hitler offed himself made that transition possible. Don’t see Putin taking himself out; certainly not if the war isn’t on his literal doorstep.

    It’s well above my pay grade. Hopefully some smart people are coming up with possible plans.

  12. #5812
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    Benny, whatabout you whatabout up your fucking whatabout, and take your whatabout to whatever whatabout covid thread whatabout?

  13. #5813
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    Why do you still live in this country, benny?



    shirley there must be a better country out there where you’re already a local?

  14. #5814
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    Benny would enjoy the ideological purity of Somalia.
    Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident

  15. #5815
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    Quote Originally Posted by m2711c View Post
    Why do you still live in this country, benny?



    shirley there must be a better country out there where you’re already a local?
    Free porn and excellent craft beer.

  16. #5816
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Really? Ever hear of Hitler?

    I'm sorry. You're the expert here. You know more than me. Carry on.
    Hitler? Isn’t he the guy that took over the entirety of Europe, a lot of the Soviet Union and a large part of North Africa? I know it didn’t end well but seems a bit more successful than Putin.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  17. #5817
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Really? Ever hear of Hitler?

    I'm sorry. You're the expert here. You know more than me. Carry on.
    Ok, outtake from Dumb & Dumber... as one of the most epic failures in modern history Putin's war with Ukraine is a second order effect of the Third Reich. The more the Kremlin says Ukraine is Nazified, the more Hitler-like Putin becomes. The Russian army's Z symbol is interchangeable with the swastika.

  18. #5818
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    Ok, grandpa who smells like overcooked Hormel and Dinty Moore... just as Lenin's tomb is a communist plot, just as you're a tool of murderous autocrats posing as a man of the people, Putin & Assad remaining in power does not make them any less monstrous.

  19. #5819
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Assad is still very much in control of his country. Who woulda thunk? As my Mom always said, don't count your chicks until they hatched, or something like that.
    I'm gonna guess she said "apparatchiks" not "chicks".

  20. #5820
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    How much does it hurt NATO and help Putin that Germany won't/can't commit to the energy boycott?
    Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!

  21. #5821
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Hormel and Dinty Moore...wha? I think that says more about you than me.
    Your mom told me she wished she had given birth to a can opener because at least then it would be useful.

  22. #5822
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Hormel and Dinty Moore...wha? I think that says more about you than me.

    But, anyhoo, you seem to want to slay monsters to feel better, so, hint: Dick Cheney lives in Wilson. Do a hike, do the deed.

    Many monsters have died natural deaths in history. Get used to it.
    Actually, I can’t recall Dick visiting JH in at least five years, (if not 10) he can’t handle the altitude.
    Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident

  23. #5823
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    Click image for larger version. 

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    Ahh, glad that’s all cleared up then. Sincerest apologies for the genocide accusations.

  24. #5824
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    Quote Originally Posted by SumJongGuy View Post
    How much does it hurt NATO and help Putin that Germany won't/can't commit to the energy boycott?
    Hard to say. Trashing the German economy would not help. Germany has committed (or proposed) substantial cuts, getting to zero over a few years. How much effect could they have if they cut immediately? There'd be a short-term effect on Russia as energy went unsold. Most of it likely finds a new market. That could have long-term effects that are detrimental to NATO, say if Russia builds a pipeline to another country (not sure the practicalities of long pipelines). Losing cheap energy could destroy (make uneconomic) dependent industries in Germany.

  25. #5825
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongShortLong View Post
    Hard to say. Trashing the German economy would not help. Germany has committed (or proposed) substantial cuts, getting to zero over a few years. How much effect could they have if they cut immediately? There'd be a short-term effect on Russia as energy went unsold. Most of it likely finds a new market. That could have long-term effects that are detrimental to NATO, say if Russia builds a pipeline to another country (not sure the practicalities of long pipelines). Losing cheap energy could destroy (make uneconomic) dependent industries in Germany.

    Micronukes

    EVs

    ???

    Profit!!

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