Ukraine

[highangle]

So those guys who went over to help the Ukrainian? 20 killed in a Russian airstrike today.

Da, in Glorious Headquarters Russjan Black Sea Fleet lol

[TBS]

So those guys who went over to help the Ukrainian? 20 killed in a Russian airstrike today.

Link? I can’t find anything on this

[beer30]

Article is in German newspaper, it’s www.Merkur.de, it’s kind of a shitty newspaper but is written simply enough I can read it (ie USA Today) also says outside of Russian sources it hasn’t been confirmed.

[LongShortLong]

And Russia will collapse long before the US has to provide even $100 billion. Remember, Russia’s pre-invasion GDP was only $1.5T and military spending about $65billion.

History suggests they will not collapse. Ok depends what you mean by collapse. Military expulsion from Ukraine, maybe. Suffer economically, certainly. Cease to exist as a large autocratic country in Eurasia, unlikely. That said, I've seen plenty of theory that the economic suffering may lead to internal division. I put the internal division theory in the same general category as "the {invaded county} will welcome their liberators" (could be true, like in Ukraine usually isn't).

Those Yale lectures suggest that economic destruction makes democracy less likely (the prof suggests per capita GDP of $14k tends to be necessary*). Russia also suffers the oil curse (single economic sector meaning whoever controls it controls the country). Russia looks like the likely Russian future. I think Putin has a pretty firm grip. When he exits, any successor is most likely a Russian nationalist similar to Putin. I think democratic Russia should be the long run end goal. Russian democracy in the short run is only likely following occupation, and I put occupation in the not happening category.

* keeping in mind that political science is not a hard science.

And I'm just a dentist, way out of my lane.

[dunfree]

Article is in German newspaper, it’s www.Merkur.de, it’s kind of a shitty newspaper but is written simply enough I can read it (ie USA Today) also says outside of Russian sources it hasn’t been confirmed.

Russian sources have proven very accurate this conflict so far.

[jono]

Russian sources have proven very accurate this conflict so far.

Well touché and all, but let's be realistic here: if anyone is going to know who they killed with an air strike, shouldn't it be the Russians?

[TBS]

@LSL- when I say “collapse” I mean incapable to continuing the fight in Ukraine, which will likely being about internal economic turmoil and regime change. IMV, it’s just a matter of time, so long as the US continues to arm the Ukrainians

@Dunfree - I did see where the Russians claimed they rolled up an Islamist cell in Crimea, implying that was the source of recent explosions…

[dunfree]

Well touché and all, but let's be realistic here: if anyone is going to know who they killed with an air strike, shouldn't it be the Russians?

They know they killed Nazis, isn’t the question whether they were 75 year old female nazis in wheelchairs, 6 month old nazis with pacifiers, or 25 year old foreign born combatant nazis? Not that Russia cares, they believe in “no mercy for the Ukrainian population”

[jono]

Yeah, that's going to cause a bit of confusion. Guess I'll wait for other sources. Were these the guys?

[dunfree]

Devious Ukrainians poisoning Russian soldiers with expired poorly stored Russian rations that never left Russia
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2...4130/index.amp

[summit]

I guess it depends what you mean by Russia and USA staying out of each others wars. If you only define it as overt direct conflict, then sure, but that is a silly definition of "staying out." There has been tons of ears deep involvement in proxy wars, and I'd call that the opposite of "staying out."

In addition, both sides have repeatedly engaged in nearly everything short of overt conflict right up to Russian soldiers and pilots shooting down US warplanes and civilian airliners (often while flying actual Russian marked planes), both sides subs ramming each other, attack aircraft buzzing ships, US planes bombing Russian troops, US artillery pasting Russian mercs, and various Russian assassination plots.

As far as direct overt confrontation, we came right up to it several times, whether you look at the Cuban Missile Crisis, Berlin crisis, Suez crisis, Able Archer 83, Kosovo, and various other to-the-brink incidents.

[abraham]

There was that time a bunch of russians got pasted in Syria after the Russian military said they weren't actually Russians.

The artillery barrage was so intense that the American commandos dived into foxholes for protection, emerging covered in flying dirt and debris to fire back at a column of tanks advancing under the heavy shelling. It was the opening salvo in a nearly four-hour assault in February by around 500 pro-Syrian government forces — including Russian mercenaries — that threatened to inflame already-simmering tensions between Washington and Moscow.

In the end, 200 to 300 of the attacking fighters were killed. The others retreated under merciless airstrikes from the United States, returning later to retrieve their battlefield dead. None of the Americans at the small outpost in eastern Syria — about 40 by the end of the firefight — were harmed.

The details of the Feb. 7 firefight were gleaned from interviews and documents newly obtained by The New York Times. They provide the Pentagon’s first public on-the-ground accounting of one of the single bloodiest battles the American military has faced in Syria since deploying to fight the Islamic State.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/w...ies-syria.html

[PB]

They know they killed Nazis, isn’t the question whether they were 75 year old female nazis in wheelchairs, 6 month old nazis with pacifiers, or 25 year old foreign born combatant nazis? Not that Russia cares, they believe in “no mercy for the Ukrainian population”

... you forgot midget Nazi porno stars.

[jono]

Meanwhile in Moscow instant karma meets "no-mercy:"

https://mobile.twitter.com/OlgaNYC12...CxpZKIk6orAAAA

[LongShortLong]

I guess it depends what you mean by Russia and USA staying out of each others wars. If you only define it as overt direct conflict, then sure, but that is a silly definition of "staying out." There has been tons of ears deep involvement in proxy wars, and I'd call that the opposite of "staying out."

In addition, both sides have repeatedly engaged in nearly everything short of overt conflict right up to Russian soldiers and pilots shooting down US warplanes and civilian airliners (often while flying actual Russian marked planes), both sides subs ramming each other, attack aircraft buzzing ships, US planes bombing Russian troops, US artillery pasting Russian mercs, and various Russian assassination plots.

As far as direct overt confrontation, we came right up to it several times, whether you look at the Cuban Missile Crisis, Berlin crisis, Suez crisis, Able Archer 83, Kosovo, and various other to-the-brink incidents.

That's what I mean by full contact diplomacy. Some people think it's dirty or sneaky - IMO it's necessary to regularly greet one another. I assume the CIA is busy doing CIA things like always, and the Pentagon is doing Pentagon things. Neighborhood watch international.

Sending blue helmets (troops) to Ukraine would be different. Russia's not going to agree, so it would be an illegal military operation. That doesn't mean it can't be done, it just goes against tradition and the international political mood, and likely won't be done.

[jono]

That's what I mean by full contact diplomacy. Some people think it's dirty or sneaky - IMO it's necessary to regularly greet one another. I assume the CIA is busy doing CIA things like always, and the Pentagon is doing Pentagon things. Neighborhood watch international.

Sending blue helmets (troops) to Ukraine would be different. Russia's not going to agree, so it would be an illegal military operation. That doesn't mean it can't be done, it just goes against tradition and the international political mood, and likely won't be done.

Mig Alley was not a large scale example, but if you want to read about a medium scale running engagement that stayed secret for a long time this guy lived an interesting tale:

https://militaryhistorynow.com/2022/...ever-happened/

[Cono Este]

I realize most of you tools like being another cog in the wheel of propaganda, which is the true definition of traitor. But foreign fighters are returning from Ukraine and reporting something quite different than you internet board generals are. Fucking idiots.

Another willybeatscancer video with an Aussie foreign fighter. Says there are sending foreign fighters in and holding ukranians back. Shitty medical where you have to bribe nurses etc.

https://youtu.be/oTD_c57EWck

[MultiVerse]

He doesn't have a point because he's arguing against his own strawman. Everyone here knows Russia indiscriminately shells everything within range including civilian infrastructure with WWI/WWII levels of artillery. Given a front line nearly as long as the length of Europe and fighting a massive invasion against a much larger aggressor nation — the fact that chaos ensued during the early weeks and months of the war is no surprise to anyone except for Cono, apparently.

The main conclusion of the foreign fighter in the interview (he says he wants to go back to Ukraine and rejoin the fight) is the same as the one in this thread: the West should send more aid.

[highangle]

MOSCOW — The daughter of an influential Russian political theorist often referred to as “Putin’s brain” was killed in a car bombing on the outskirts of Moscow, authorities said Sunday.
The Moscow branch of the Russian Investigative Committee said preliminary information indicated 29-year-old TV commentator Daria Dugina was killed by an explosive planted in the SUV she was driving Saturday night.
There was no immediate claim of responsibility. But the bloodshed gave rise to suspicions that the intended target was her father, Alexander Dugin, a nationalist philosopher and writer.

Dugin is a prominent proponent of the “Russian world” concept, a spiritual and political ideology that emphasizes traditional values, restoration of Russia’s power and the unity of all ethnic Russians throughout the world. He is also a vehement supporter of Russia’s sending of troops into Ukraine.

...

https://www.adn.com/nation-world/202...ey-putin-ally/





https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Founda...of_Geopolitics

[schuss]

Not to mention: of course you put foreign volunteers in action. It's not a daycare and they aren't future leaders of Ukraine. Welcome to war from a realist perspective.

[jono]

MOSCOW — The daughter of an influential Russian political theorist often referred to as “Putin’s brain” was killed in a car bombing on the outskirts of Moscow, authorities said Sunday.
The Moscow branch of the Russian Investigative Committee said preliminary information indicated 29-year-old TV commentator Daria Dugina was killed by an explosive planted in the SUV she was driving Saturday night.
There was no immediate claim of responsibility. But the bloodshed gave rise to suspicions that the intended target was her father, Alexander Dugin, a nationalist philosopher and writer.

Dugin is a prominent proponent of the “Russian world” concept, a spiritual and political ideology that emphasizes traditional values, restoration of Russia’s power and the unity of all ethnic Russians throughout the world. He is also a vehement supporter of Russia’s sending of troops into Ukraine.

...

https://www.adn.com/nation-world/202...ey-putin-ally/





https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Founda...of_Geopolitics

[Dugin drift]

It's interesting that western analysis regularly refers to Dugin as having a "spiritual" or "mystic" component while he seems to ignore any such thing. Not saying the analysis is wrong, but it may just be that we explain his obvious delusions as "spiritual" because he expresses them with such ardent faith-like certainty when it might also be attributable to the strength of his commitment to "truth" that doesn't need to be factual if he believes it.

An example from his recent propoganda:

"The Russian and
Eurasian.
They do not contradict each other, there is no need to choose between them. But they are different nonetheless.

The first means a rapid and dramatic strengthening of Russia's sovereignty, ensuring that it can only rely on its own forces if necessary. And we are not talking about a limited conception of sovereignty, which is already recognised - albeit nominally - by every independent state, but about sovereignty on an integral scale, encompassing

civilization,
culture,
education,
science,
economics,
finance,
values,
identity,
the political system.
and above all ideology.
So far, apart from political and military sovereignty, all the other spheres we have are partially Western or fully Western, and there is no ideology. Consequently, the construction of a truly sovereign Russia, a fully sovereign Russia, requires a profound transformation of all these spheres, their liberation from the liberal globalist paradigms deeply embedded in our society and establishment during the first and second phases of post-Soviet history.

This will require an institutionalisation of Putin's course, not just loyalty to him personally. This would entail the establishment of a new ideology, a kind of 'Putinism' in which the basic principles of integral sovereignty would be enshrined, and then other political and administrative mechanisms would also have to be incorporated into them.

Russia is inevitably moving into an ideological phase. We cannot hold our own against the West without our own ideology."

Note his list does not mention religion, faith or spirituality at all. Is that inherently included as "culture?" Is his audience atheist "elites?" Many ways to interpret that.

That he plans to bring science into alignment with Putinism is pretty telling, though.

[MultiVerse]

Not to mention: of course you put foreign volunteers in action. It's not a daycare and they aren't future leaders of Ukraine. Welcome to war from a realist perspective.

....and the foreign fighter's point is there were capable commanders as well as incapable commanders, battlefield medical care wasn't up to Western standards, and the war in Ukraine isn't a low intensity insurgency but instead a full fledged artillery war being fought without integrated intelligence and air superiority: "You can't outrun artillery." It's not the kind of fight most modern Western armies prepare for anymore.

Contrary to Cono's strawman, a lot of this thread is about disabusing Putin supporters of their illusions. People like Leroy arguing Ukraine only needed small arms to fight the Russian army, while others argued the Russians weren't using their best heavy weapons, weren't really trying to take over the country. Not to mention people like Benny & Rod arguing Russia was treating Ukraine with kid gloves ⁠— no indiscriminate bombardment, no systematic Russian war crimes, no genocide ⁠— and if Russia really wanted to they could destroy the entire country.

[Cono Este]

He doesn't have a point because he's arguing against his own strawman. Everyone here knows Russia indiscriminately shells everything within range including civilian infrastructure with WWI/WWII levels of artillery. Given a front line nearly as long as the length of Europe and fighting a massive invasion against a much larger aggressor nation — the fact that chaos ensued during the early weeks and months of the war is no surprise to anyone except for Cono, apparently.

The main conclusion of the foreign fighter in the interview (he says he wants to go back to Ukraine and rejoin the fight) is the same as the one in this thread: the West should send more aid.

Thank you for actually listening to the interview.

I do realize what Ukraine is up against, but lies are fucking lies. And before kids go over there, they need to hear the truth. As you said, it’s a warfare none of our vets have ever seen.

You guys have had zero tolerance for anything expect treating them like the 51st state it’s ridiculous. A smart person would distance themselves just a little bit in case down the road we start digging up mass graves or something, or a US made stinger end up downing an airliner 5 yrs from now. In the last interview I posted the guy said weapons were missing and in this interview they said they were being issued crap.

You guys can thank me later.

[MultiVerse]

In case you haven't been paying attention Ukraine has been digging up mass graves of civilians tortured, murdered, and desecrated by Russian troops. After they were found out, the Russians now use mobile incinerators to cover up not only their own war crimes but also to hide their own troop losses. This is the evil you think Ukraine should have surrendered to in the beginning.

[Cono Este]

FFS, this kind of debate is part of a functioning democracy. The article generally paints a ‘his warnings probably might not have made any difference, since the invasion possibility was already out there’ and ‘his administration did a lot of good things but here are things that could have been done better’ vibe.

I look fwd to the same healthy debates in Russian media about Putin

Of course hindsight is 20/20. But considering how badly the Russian Army has performed, one might argue that if Zelensky had been less worried about the economy, (even blowing off US warnings Until 2 days before the invasion) that maybe they could have stopped Russia sooner.

The man is not Baby Jesus! His country is being destroyed and the buck stops with him.