Ukraine

[jono]

Aaaaaand Elon backtracks; "just kidding!"

I don't know whether to hope this hoax worked or not--I have a feeling the embarrassment of having fallen for it should be worth at least 1 billion. Debunked months ago, but WTH, right?

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1581027630819979264

[jono]

OTOH, Ukraine did just say they were going to find a way to keep the terminals operating, implying they'd find a way around Starlink? Maybe the Pentagon offered them some other satellites if Elon wasn't going to play nice? For a minute it kinda felt like he forgot who invented the internet--and why.

From: https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/10/...links-working/

Which closes with this argument for escalation to off-ramp:

Hans Petter Midttun: Two days ago, the EU Parliamentary Assembly adopted the resolution “Further escalation in the Russian Federation’s aggression against Ukraine”.

“Eight months have elapsed since the Russian Federation launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine. This brutal and inhumane aggression is provoking immense suffering, destruction and displacement, to a level unseen in Europe since the Second World War. This aggression must be unequivocally condemned as a crime in itself, as a violation of international law and as a major threat to international peace and security. In the past few weeks, the Russian Federation has taken political, military and rhetorical steps which indicate a further escalation of the aggression.

Given the unprecedented gravity of the Russian Federation’s aggression as a threat to international peace and security, the rules-based international order, international law and the most basic values which are the foundation of the Council of Europe, the Assembly appeals to the Heads of State and Government of Council of Europe member States to gather in the fourth Summit in the history of the Organisation and put the issue of accountability of the Russian Federation, as well as support to Ukraine, high on the agenda of the Summit.”

IMF is only the last of many that have highlighted the increasing costs and far-reaching consequences of the Russian aggressive foreign policy.

On 6 May I wrote “We – Ukraine and the international community – do not have the time for Ukraine to build the military capacities needed to end the war on its – and therefore, our – terms. It does not make sense to sit “idle” waiting for the tsunami of consequences to increase in scale to a point where it will cause political, economic and geopolitical chain reactions that will be impossible to predict and difficult to control”.

This is one of the reasons I have relentlessly argued in favour of humanitarian intervention in Ukraine.

Firstly, it is a question of integrity. If the world’s biggest military alliance, based on common values of democracy, human rights and the rule of law, will not defend the basis for our security and stability, who will?

Secondly, because it was in line with NATO’s strategic concepts from 2010, and the logic is more relevant than ever: a just and lasting peaceful order in Europe is put at risk by Russian aggressions in the periphery of the Alliance.

Thirdly, a potential Russian victory would undermine European security and stability even more than its present hybrid war against Ukraine, NATO and the EU.

Fourthly, because we must start taking Russia seriously and acting upon its threats and actions, Russia defined NATO as a threat already in 2014. It claims that the West is waging an information war, economic war, war of proxy and total war against Russia. The sanctions are seen as an act of aggression. Having waged a hybrid war against the West itself for years, it delivered an ultimatum to both the US and the Alliance in December 2021. To continue to refer to the war as just a war between Russia and Ukraine undermines our credibility. It is already a broader confrontation between Russia and NATO. Even the EU has acknowledged the threat. This argument is becoming increasingly relevant as gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea are sabotaged and the threat against gas pipelines in the North Sea increases.

Fifthly, because the West is running out of weapons it can supply Ukraine which it can use with no or limited training. We must soon start providing it with both the weapons as well as the personnel needed to operate them efficiently.

Last but not least, humanitarian intervention is needed to avoid the “tsunami of ripple effects” of the war and its major global consequences. This includes increased costs of living, food and energy insecurity, increased famine, recession, and more. This increases the likelihood of social unrest, increased extremism, riots, and the fall of governments. The political landscape in the USA and Europe will – as in the 1930s – most likely be changed by political forces seeking to exploit the voters’ frustration.

It also includes the potential fallout of a war being fought between Ukraine’s 15 nuclear power plants. Multiple incidents over artillery and missile impacts in the near vicinity of several NPPs serve as testimonies to the tremendous risk the European continent is exposed to. The longer the war lasts, the higher the risk of another (but bigger) Chornobyl catastrophe.

Nadia Calvino, Spain’s economy minister, said that the call for an end to the war was stronger than at IMF and World Bank meetings in April as the conflict causes food and energy insecurity, rising prices and financial stability risks.

“It is very clear for just on a human level, practical level, objective level — Stop the war. Stop the war,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. This is the most straightforward way to get the world economy in better shape. Stop the war.”

It’s abundantly clear that Russia is not going to stop the war before defeat is imminent. Ukraine is fighting for its existence and cannot stop the war before Russia is defeated. The only ones who can respond to the IMF call to “Stop the war” are NATO or a coalition of the willing based on its key members.

Ironically, it could create the “off-ramp” Putin needs to withdraw: Facing the world’s strongest military alliance – and recognising the military defeats it has already suffered in Ukraine, the costs of the so-called “special military operation” and the risks to the foundation of the Russian Federation – President Putin can demonstrate “statesmanship” to avoid the “war escalating into a broader confrontation”. The direct involvement of NATO can give him a way out. A defeat by Ukraine will be unacceptable and impossible to “sell” to the domestic audience.

IMF is in essence joining the calls for humanitarian intervention. Close the sky. Break the maritime embargo. Forward deploy Land Forces to Ukraine.

The West must re-establish the initiative. It is time to escalate to de-escalate and end the war.

[MultiVerse]

According to my Navy buddy, the comms advantage via Starlink was absolutely critical in the early stages of the war.

It's not a comms advantage per se because Ukraine didn't have sophisticated electronic warfare capabilities to jam Russian communications. In fact the opposite was true. Starlink was an effective countermeasure for Russia's electronic warfare advantage. So instead Starlink allows for a kind of comms parity.

The Ukrainian military advantage over Russia comes from the way they organized and trained to act as quasi-autonomous dispersed infantry. During the Kharkiv offensive, for example, Starlink stopped working once they started retaking Russian occupied territory because it was geofenced and yet they still managed a major successful offensive.

[jono]

It's not a comms advantage per se because Ukraine didn't have sophisticated electronic warfare capabilities jam to Russian communications. In fact the opposite was true. So instead Starlink allowed for a kind of comms parity.

The Ukrainian military advantage over Russia comes from the way they organized and trained to act as quasi autonomous dispersed infantry.

Comms parity with Bafang 2-way radios? Wide tolerance on "parity" there.

[The Reverend Floater]

It's not a comms advantage per se because Ukraine didn't have sophisticated electronic warfare capabilities to jam Russian communications. In fact the opposite was true. So instead Starlink allowed for a kind of comms parity.

The Ukrainian military advantage over Russia comes from the way they organized and trained to act as quasi autonomous dispersed infantry.

I think his point was that the Ukrainians did not suffer from large scale comms challenges. The Russians had disastrous communications challenges and the Ukes made them pay accordingly. That's an advantage.

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk

[MultiVerse]

Comms parity with Bafang 2-way radios? Wide tolerance on "parity" there.

I think his point was that the Ukrainians did not suffer from large scale comms challenges. The Russians had disastrous communications challenges and the Ukes made them pay accordingly. That's an advantage.

What I mean is Russia has an electronic warfare (EW) advantage. Ukraine did and does in fact routinely experience comms challenges due to Russian electronic warfare. Russia often successfully jams Ukraine's signals. Ukraine now admits Russian jamming efforts during the battle for Kyiv were more successful than they let on at the time. It's one of the reasons why we no longer see TB2 Bayraktar missile strikes, because they can't get close enough anymore. In spite of all the successful Ukrainian drone strikes, many disappear into a Russian EW black hole.

[The Reverend Floater]

What I mean is Russia has an electronic warfare (EW) advantage. Ukraine did and does in fact routinely experience comms challenges due to Russian electronic warfare. Russia often successfully jams Ukraine's signals. Ukraine now admits Russian jamming efforts during the battle for Kyiv were more successful than they let on at the time. It's one of the reasons why we no longer see TB2 Bayraktar missile strikes, because they can't get close enough anymore. In spite all the successful Ukrainian drone strikes, many disappear into a Russian EW black hole.

Sure but Russian leadership also broadcasted their location via apple watches.

[highangle]

[MultiVerse]

Sure but Russian leadership also broadcasted their location via apple watches.

Oh for sure, both sides are learning on the job so to speak. Both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers tell stories about people turning on their phones for just a moment only to experience artillery rounds raining down moments later.

[The Reverend Floater]

That's a great cut.

[cspringsposer]

What I mean is Russia has an electronic warfare (EW) advantage. Ukraine did and does in fact routinely experience comms challenges due to Russian electronic warfare. Russia often successfully jams Ukraine's signals. Ukraine now admits Russian jamming efforts during the battle for Kyiv were more successful than they let on at the time. It's one of the reasons why we no longer see TB2 Bayraktar missile strikes, because they can't get close enough anymore. In spite of all the successful Ukrainian drone strikes, many disappear into a Russian EW black hole.

On paper, Russia had an electromagnetic warfare advantage, but like many other aspects of their operations, they have been unable to secure the spectrum for themselves or to defeat Ukrainian electromagnetic ops. Without question we (US military) have played a significant role in this area of the conflict.

[MultiVerse]

I agree Russian capabilities haven't held up to prewar expectations. And the US has since sent electronic jamming gear to Ukraine. But U.S. & Ukrainian briefing summaries describe the loss rate for drones due to Russian EW at somewhere between every 3-and-6 flights which means Russian equipment works.

So like most things it's not just a question or even mostly a question of tech but a matter of skill and motivation for the people making use of it. In other words, if everything were somehow reversed, if the Russians only had Starlink at the outset and the Ukrainians had all the Russian electronic resources at their disposal I think the outcome would have been the same.

[dunfree]

On paper, Russia had an electromagnetic warfare advantage, but like many other aspects of their operations, they have been unable to secure the spectrum for themselves or to defeat Ukrainian electromagnetic ops. Without question we (US military) have played a significant role in this area of the conflict.

isn’t the paper problem for Russia talent and training? If they weren’t a shitty genocidal regime they would care. Ukraine & Finland and others can use their weapons well but Russia is shot because Russia is shit

edit to add: Russia is still crowdfunding Chinese walk-in talkies for pilots. Prewar nobody cared to look at how much “good” stuff Russia had, they just seemed to assume it was there and widely spread

[LongShortLong]

OTOH, Ukraine did just say they were going to find a way to keep the terminals operating, implying they'd find a way around Starlink? Maybe the Pentagon offered them some other satellites if Elon wasn't going to play nice? For a minute it kinda felt like he forgot who invented the internet--and why.

From: https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/10/...links-working/

Which closes with this argument for escalation to off-ramp:

Good to see the Europeans are serious.

As for using alternate satellites with Starlink terminals, I'm going to guess that's roughly impossible. Starlink probably has more satellites than everyone else combined. There's just no other space based system with that kind of bandwidth. And the terminals probably don't work with any of the other satellites. Ukraine is probably implying they'll make a deal with Starlink. Maybe they'll throw in a few history books for Elon's library.

[This End Up]

Aaaaaand Elon backtracks; "just kidding!"

Hopefully he got fat stacks of CIA cash

[riser4]

Hopefully he got fat stacks of CIA cash

Fuck that fucker. I hope he got an offer he couldn't refuse.

[highangle]

Fuck that fucker. I hope he got an offer he couldn't refuse.

Pretty sure he got at least 3...

[jono]

Good to see the Europeans are serious.

As for using alternate satellites with Starlink terminals, I'm going to guess that's roughly impossible. Starlink probably has more satellites than everyone else combined. There's just no other space based system with that kind of bandwidth. And the terminals probably don't work with any of the other satellites. Ukraine is probably implying they'll make a deal with Starlink. Maybe they'll throw in a few history books for Elon's library.

I would think so, too, and particularly I expect them to be designed to be captive, but the Ukrainians are pretty inventive lately and the outages (and occasionally even Russian strikes) have given them some time to work on the problem. No need to worry about warranty coverage or any bells and whistles, just make it work (and in Crimea). There are no absolute limits. And the Defense Production Act should give the Pentagon all the leverage they needed--even without breaking out US/EU antitrust laws, which certainly should have come out already.

Meanwhile, even a bad solution that dings his monopoly is very unattractive to Musk, who was risking all of Starlink's European (and many American) customers, at minimum. It's not like he's been attracting the vatniks over the last 8 months. He's just been down that road with Tesla: switching sides didn't get him more customers.

Truly, the only surprise here is that he's been this monumentally stupid, but that Chinese Tesla factory is a hell of a lever on him.

[SumJongGuy]

Russia is using rape and sexual violence as part of its “military strategy” in Ukraine, a UN envoy said this week.

The claim follows data released by a panel of UN experts recently that verified “more than a hundred cases” of rape or sexual assault incidents reported in Ukraine since February.

“When you hear women testify about Russian soldiers equipped with Viagra, it’s clearly a military strategy,” Pramila Patten, UN Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict, said in an interview with AFP on Thursday

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/15/europ...hnk/index.html

[highangle]

[Hood26]

Russian firearms training isn’t going so well. A pair of former Soviet Republic citizen volunteers for fighting in Ukraine, but shoot 11 at the training range instead.

[LongShortLong]

Meanwhile, even a bad solution that dings his monopoly is very unattractive to Musk, who was risking all of Starlink's European (and many American) customers, at minimum. It's not like he's been attracting the vatniks over the last 8 months. He's just been down that road with Tesla: switching sides didn't get him more customers.

Truly, the only surprise here is that he's been this monumentally stupid, but that Chinese Tesla factory is a hell of a lever on him.

Hard to know what he's smoking.

In the lever category, could be he's looking specifically at the Starlink business. AIUI, Starlink works best at far northern latitudes. (It also works in far southern latitudes, but due to the layout of continents, there is no suitable land or customers). That's why it rolled out initially in Canada. Being in LEO, Starlink has horizons, meaning that satellites serving one region are available in the adjacent region. Ukraine doesn't compete with bandwidth to Canada. Or Russia.

So, there's a potential customer base in Russia. Serving those customers has low marginal cost - the expensive satellites are already in orbit, and have unused capacity over Russia. There's one problem selling Starlink service in Russia though - sanctions.

Hence Musk's interest in ending the war. Being a tech guy, he may be unaware of history and geopolitics, and not even see it as appeasement. Being an ass, he runs his mouth rather than educating himself. Or, since he leans libertarian, any expert he consults likely believes "might makes right" so maybe appeasement is justice.

[abraham]

According to my Navy buddy, the comms advantage via Starlink was absolutely critical in the early stages of the war.

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk

I thought this was a good article describing the Ukrainian steps taken in the earliest phases of the war. So far I haven't seen too many looking back, but that may be because things are happening constantly and there's a firehose of information.

Someday I hope there is a good reporting of what happened in Bakhmut for the last 4 months. It seems to be a rock that managed to stop Russia's forward progress. Everyday almost there are reports of attempt incursions there but it hasn't fallen. I saw a video of the trenches there recently and it looks like something out of a WW1 photo, with shredded trees denuded of all leaves and branches.

[dunfree]

Russian firearms training isn’t going so well. A pair of former Soviet Republic citizen volunteers for fighting in Ukraine, but shoot 11 at the training range instead.

some reports claim this was because the commanding officer told them they were fighting a holy war and called allah a coward, later the two troopers (Tajiks is one claim) opened fire.

tge strength of the unwoke military

[TBS]

Reports that the Orcs are sending convicts to the front line. Then conscripts occupy the second line, with orders to shoot retreating convicts. Regulars are lined up behind the conscripts with orders to shoot retreating convicts or conscripts.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...432603648?s=12

And Wagner troops are lined up behind them, guarding the washing machines…