Ukraine

[highangle]

Just trying to scare them.

He prob just sent a bunch of incompetent motherfuckers there too.

[subtle plague]

We can ski for regime change? Sweet. In.

Get some Praxis rx and buy an epic pass. Customer relations will do the Rest.

[highangle]

[Adolf Allerbush]

Russian observers say there are two primary Kremlin factions whispering in Putin's ear. The more moderate economic people responsible for keeping the economy afloat and the hardliner FSB, military, security services people. Abramovich along with most of the other Russian oligarchs are more moderate than the hardliners so the poisoning could be an attempt to undermine political rivals. Insight into how the hardliners think:

https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status...11683323113479

"either you win this operation or start the final countdown"

No bueno.

[TBS]

Russian observers say there are two primary Kremlin factions whispering in Putin's ear. The more moderate economic people responsible for keeping the economy afloat and the hardliner FSB, military, security services people. Abramovich along with most of the other Russian oligarchs are more moderate than the hardliners so the poisoning could be an attempt to undermine political rivals. Insight into how the hardliners think:

https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status...11683323113479

"either you win this operation or start the final countdown"

So who is the guy speaking? And in what context?
Sure looks like the other guys weren’t buying it.

[highangle]

So who is the guy speaking? And in what context?
Sure looks like the other guys weren’t buying it.

Yakov Kedmi, former KGB agent and current pro-Kremlin Israeli former diplomat.

He's trying to equivocate Putin with the Russian Federation.
Then he's trying to make Putin's case: 'Apres moi, le deluge' [implying that Russia can't go on without a Dark Lord to guide them].

meh. I ain't buying it either.

[MultiVerse]

Yakov Kedmi is a dead ringer for Stalin's secret police chief Lavrentiy Beria. The guy dressed in black is Putin's chief propagandist Vladimir Solovyov. The show is on the state owned national channel. I've seen other clips of the same show from before the war when they all stood with their arms crossed in the same manner, all in agreement the invasion was necessary, so who knows how much non-Russians can surmise from their demeanor.

Others say it's not uncommon for state TV to argue for a hardline or more extreme position so that when Putin makes a less extreme decision he appears more moderate by comparison. It's the Kremlin's way of moving the Overton Window.

[TBS]

Hmmm, emigrated to Israel at 22, became head of their Secret Service and a group that helped East Bloc Jews move to Israel. Then went on the Russian TV circuit

So he’s basically a talking head - like Tucker Carlson, but with better credentials.

But given limited viewpoints on Russian TV, hIs probably get traction

[ex-powderbroker]

The BBC surveys Russian newspapers of today (yesterday maybe?): https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status...209bbad4a4%2F0

if anyone slept on this, it was very good.

[MTT]

[Tri-Ungulate]

Have any of you seen any reasonable analyses re: possible action by Georgia on South Ossetia/Abkhazia and/or Moldova on Transnistria whilst Russia is occupied elsewhere, and apparently pulling troops from those regions to throw into the Ukrainian conflict? Or even regional stirrings in places like Chechnya, Belarus or even Syria? Already, an emboldened Azerbaijan looks like it's on the move in Nagorno-Karabakh.

I've been reading Kamil Galeev's threads with interest since Summit pointed to him way upthread, which hint at these possibilities, but don't address them at length.

[abraham]

NeilPHauer has been a good resource for the Caucasus in the past.


Highangle, I heard that some Ukrainians from Mariupol being resettled by Russia are getting sent to Sakhalin. Looks like the source is Ukrainian intelligence but I haven't seen additional confirmation. Still, made your name pop into my head when I heard that.

[neufox47]

Have any of you seen any reasonable analyses re: possible action by Georgia on South Ossetia/Abkhazia and/or Moldova on Transnistria whilst Russia is occupied elsewhere, and apparently pulling troops from those regions to throw into the Ukrainian conflict? Or even regional stirrings in places like Chechnya, Belarus or even Syria? Already, an emboldened Azerbaijan looks like it's on the move in Nagorno-Karabakh.

I've been reading Kamil Galeev's threads with interest since Summit pointed to him way upthread, which hint at these possibilities, but don't address them at length.

I haven’t. It’s an interesting thought experiment to really ramp up pressure on Putin though. Get some arms shipments to Georgia, Moldova and Chechnya and open up three new fronts on Russia and give those countries a chance to win their territory back / independence. That would fully qualify as cornering the bear though and I think it is likely to result in at least one mushroom cloud.

[highangle]

NeilPHauer has been a good resource for the Caucasus in the past.


Highangle, I heard that some Ukrainians from Mariupol being resettled by Russia are getting sent to Sakhalin. Looks like the source is Ukrainian intelligence but I haven't seen additional confirmation. Still, made your name pop into my head when I heard that.

It will be interesting to see if we get paid for the work we deliver this year...

[ötzi]

I don't know the backstory on that, you have customers in Russia?

[Viva]

Have any of you seen any reasonable analyses re: possible action by... Moldova on Transnistria whilst Russia is occupied elsewhere, and apparently pulling troops from those regions to throw into the Ukrainian conflict? .

The Moldovan army numbers about five thousand, and the Russians still have maybe fifteen hundred soldiers in Transnistria. That region is also problematic due to the number of ethnic, and pro-Putin, Russians there- would prove difficult to manage without strong forces. Regardless, strict neutrality is baked into the Moldovan Constitution. They won't act on this.

[riser4]

Have any of you seen any reasonable analyses re: possible action by Georgia on South Ossetia/Abkhazia and/or Moldova on Transnistria whilst Russia is occupied elsewhere, and apparently pulling troops from those regions to throw into the Ukrainian conflict? Or even regional stirrings in places like Chechnya, Belarus or even Syria? Already, an emboldened Azerbaijan looks like it's on the move in Nagorno-Karabakh.

I've been reading Kamil Galeev's threads with interest since Summit pointed to him way upthread, which hint at these possibilities, but don't address them at length.

Why does anyone want a wider war?

[ötzi]

Well people in Moldova, Georgia, Chechnya etc. could see it as an opportunity to get territory back so they might want it regardless of what anyone else wants.

This guy was right about some other stuff in this video from 2021 that Abraham posted upthread, and the guy (a Russian journalist and former MP) predicts that Moldova and Georgia will act (I forget if he mentions Chechnya):

[summit]

Yeah. For the last 16 years, we do annual gravity surveys of several production fields on and off Sakhalin, primarily to monitor drawdowns and field composition changes.
I contract to a US company owned by Shell, and do the field work in a 10-14 day push in late Jan/ early Feb.

Do you then ski Japow?

Have you ever skied Kamchakta?

[MultiVerse]

For several days Russia began pulling back from Kyiv and Chernigiv in the face of Ukrainian advances. Today Russia’s deputy defense minister says Moscow decided to “fundamentally cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernigiv” in order to “increase mutual trust for future negotiations to agree and sign a peace deal with Ukraine.”

The pullback isn't complete so likely as not it's a ploy or even an attempt to get the west to stop sending weapons and the Russians will probably dig in. Regardless it's a tactical if not strategic defeat given Russia said they were fighting Nazis.

The Kremlin’s chief negotiator also says Russia is not against Ukraine joining the European Union. Russia's position before today:

• 2013: If Ukraine signs a trade agreement with the EU we will destroy the country
• 2014-2022:Starting with a proxy war fought with Russian troops followed by a full scale invasion
• 2022: We are not against Ukraine joining the EU

[ex-powderbroker]

there was an agreement in place after grozny and they just went back in a few years. any agreement is going to have to be very robust to protect ukraine, since there already was one previously. in other news, saboteurs in belarus are fucking awesome

https://mobile.twitter.com/HannaLiub...95023029030912

[TBS]

The author of the now celebrated Ukrainian battle cry “Russian warship, go f… yourself” serviceman Roman Gribov, is awarded a medal for displaying the “strength of Ukrainian, Kozak spirit.” He was captured and then exchanged by the Russian invaders in a prisoner swap
https://mobile.twitter.com/bopanc/st...bfe6361a86%2F0

[m2711c]

[J. Barron DeJong]

Crazy that with that large of a commitment they’ve struggled against a much smaller country.

OBrien has some good threads on his Twitter feed this morning about the current situation (pulling back from Kiev), and where things may be headed.

[summit]

They haven't mobilized reserves and they haven't fully committed their air forces. Doing those these would be unpopular and costly.

Occupations are resource intensive and they are now dealing with the Ukrainian reserves starting to come online from their late mobilization.