Ukraine

[subtle plague]

“Onward To Odessa!!!”

Uh? You know that Ukraine has never lost Odessa? I don't quite understand that joke....

[alpinevibes]

Uh? You know that Ukraine has never lost Odessa? I don't quite understand that joke....

I think it's just a bit of sarcasm referencing Russia's early assumptions and bluster that they'd wipe through the South and easily take Odessa (their prize) in the early stages of the invasion.

[subtle plague]

It was early.... I may have to readjust my sarcasm Meter.

[J. Barron DeJong]

https://twitter.com/eliothiggins/sta...hXJZxdoJ1kjCAA

[MultiVerse]

Uh? You know that Ukraine has never lost Odessa? I don't quite understand that joke....

Donetsk Don’t Tell?


Srsly tho, the backstory is from a post last August presenting a former CIA analyst named Andrew Bustamante who made an easily verifiable prediction or bet: He argued it's a mathematical certainty Putin will take the South of Ukraine including Odessa all the way to the border of Moldova before winter. At that time myself and others had already made the opposite bet predicting Ukraine would take Kherson before winter.

So after ötzi suggested putting a note in the calendar to check Bustamente's prediction on December 1st, a brief debate ensued about whether before winter meant before December 21st or before meteorologically winter. The sarcasm stems from the fact it's now apparent Russia will never occupy Odessa, let alone before winter 22'.

[ex-powderbroker]

"why would ukraine do this"

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...e_from_todays/

[Meconium]

Poland just hit?

[summit]

Russian guidance at its best.

2 dead.

NATO will protest. Russia will say oops and pay a small recompense.

[dunfree]

and Poland will send more arms to Ukraine

[MultiVerse]

Because Russia launched ~100 missiles targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine today, it could be Ukrainian air defense missiles gone astray or the remnants of interdicted Russian rockets that inadvertently landed in Poland. Moldova for example lost power because of Russian strikes against Ukraine's power grid.

[4matic]

Would an attack by NATO or Poland to destroy the launch source be justified

[summit]

Would an attack by NATO or Poland to destroy the launch source be justified

They accidently struck Poland with 2 missiles... we could accidently ship 20 ATACMS to Ukraine... I like that solution better

[J. Barron DeJong]

Because Russia launched ~100 missiles targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine today, it could be Ukrainian air defense missiles gone astray or the remnants of interdicted Russian rockets that inadvertently landed in Poland. Moldova for example lost power because of Russian strikes against Ukraine's power grid.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/15...hXJZxdoJ1kjCAA

also



https://twitter.com/shashj/status/15...hXJZxdoJ1kjCAA

[summit]

This is 40 miles from the nearest target and not in a direction UKR would shoot a long range SAM. It was probably not a UKR SAM.

This crater would be a big crater for a SAM, but about right for a cruise missile.
https://twitter.com/RepublikaTV/stat...99493132038144
Missing also is the fragmentation impact patterns characteristic of a SAM warhead (think 20,000 fragments) which are made to kill fragile things like planes and missiles. The impact area damage looks like simple high explosive blast/overpressure from a cruise missile

For comparison, this is the fragmentation damage to MA17, the Boeing 777 that the Russians shot down with a SAM over Ukraine murdering 298 civilians in 2014.

[MultiVerse]

Yeah it could be first impressions were right all along, errant Russian missiles targeting Ukrainian electrical infrastructure near the Polish border a la earlier Moldova power outages, or even some combination since most reports say two missiles fell on Polish soil.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Was it just incredibly bad luck that it hit that truck?

[summit]

^probably

NATO forces could have shot down the Russian missiles entering Polish air space....

[Buster Highmen]

Poland hit

(edit)
should have read upthread...

[rideit]

It would be a shame if the Russian power grids somehow went down.
(Cough\hack/cough)

You think anyone could pull that off?

[LongShortLong]

This is 40 miles from the nearest target and not in a direction UKR would shoot a long range SAM. It was probably not a UKR SAM.

This crater would be a big crater for a SAM, but about right for a cruise missile.
https://twitter.com/RepublikaTV/stat...99493132038144
Missing also is the fragmentation impact patterns characteristic of a SAM warhead (think 20,000 fragments) which are made to kill fragile things like planes and missiles. The impact area damage looks like simple high explosive blast/overpressure from a cruise missile

For comparison, this is the fragmentation damage to MA17, the Boeing 777 that the Russians shot down with a SAM over Ukraine murdering 298 civilians in 2014.

This hints at the story.

People need to wake up that Russia is a bad actor, has been a bad actor, and will continue to be a bad actor. It's long past time for consequences. Russia chose to fight this war. Russia chose to fire the missiles. Doesn't matter what anyone else did or didn't do. Doesn't matter who is or isn't in NATO. It's Russia's fault. Russia is a warmonger and threat to peace.

[twat]

This is 40 miles from the nearest target and not in a direction UKR would shoot a long range SAM. It was probably not a UKR SAM.

This crater would be a big crater for a SAM, but about right for a cruise missile.
https://twitter.com/RepublikaTV/stat...99493132038144
Missing also is the fragmentation impact patterns characteristic of a SAM warhead (think 20,000 fragments) which are made to kill fragile things like planes and missiles. The impact area damage looks like simple high explosive blast/overpressure from a cruise missile

For comparison, this is the fragmentation damage to MA17, the Boeing 777 that the Russians shot down with a SAM over Ukraine murdering 298 civilians in 2014.

Lots of scientists died on that plane.

[SumJongGuy]

Surprised Ruskies haven't claimed false flags on the Poland oops..

[ötzi]

What's NATO's treaty responsibility if a member nation goes to war because of an attack if the initial attack was possibly an accident? Like say in this example if Poland was to officially join team Ukraine

[ex-powderbroker]

What's NATO's treaty responsibility if a member nation goes to war because of an attack if the initial attack was possibly an accident? Like say in this example if Poland was to officially join team Ukraine

If a NATO member goes to war, other parties of the treaty don't have to. If Poland says Russia attacked them, then I guess everyone would have to go?

[J. Barron DeJong]

If a NATO member goes to war, other parties of the treaty don't have to. If Poland says Russia attacked them, then I guess everyone would have to go?

But also:



https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/...05-vWUV4xtjwaw