Ukraine

[ex-powderbroker]

If a Turkish ship goes down from a Russian torpedo, then they have Nato to deal with.

[highangle]

So according to ukraine defence sources the German Iris T Missile defence has an accuracy of 100%.
Everything that came into it's radius has been shot down.

They probably need a few more and each shot is 500k euros I've heard, but still....

Made in Germany. Everyone laughs about German overengeneering.....until it counts.

"We can sell you ah...2 more over these next 10 years. See how awesome we are in the midst of an unprecedented energy crisis!" -- Sluggo Scholz

[summit]

Unless Turkey is running close escort of convoys, which is expensive but doable, then Russia should be able to sink merchants without hitting Turks.... but even still it would be an escalation to hit internationally flagged vessels in international waters. On the one hand, it would certainly rapidly stop any attempts at commerce... on the other hand Germany doing that kinda shit helped bring the US into increasingly partisan roles in both World Wars prior to full involvement.

Handing UKR a significant antisub capability is not something we can do so easily as handing them artillery, missiles, and tanks.

NATO can, however, fly a bunch of P-8 and ASW helo sorties to locate, track, and harass Russia Kilos as well as vector Turkish ships over the subs. just as soon as the E-3/E-8/MQ-4C sees the Kilo leave port. Turkey may have some ASW UAVs and USVs which they have been working on.

I still think we oughta refurbish S-3Bs for small theater and carrier operations and never should have retired them.

[highangle]

If a Turkish ship goes down from a Russian torpedo, then they have Nato to deal with.

lol They'll probably have NATO to deal with as soon as they open their torpedo tube doors....

[PB]

So ..... am I reading this right?!?? Putin has to rely on Iran for any weapons that are remotely sophisticated? Go Iranian ladies!!!!!

[summit]

Russia backed down on the grain deal. Whether it was flagging the merchantmen as Turkish or some tough behind the scenes talk, dunno.

[Toadman]

Russia backed down on the grain deal. Whether it was flagging the merchantmen as Turkish or some tough behind the scenes talk, dunno.

Turkish navy is about 10 times the Russian Black Sea fleet. Plus that whole Bosporus Strait thingy at the entrance/exit to the sea controlled by Turkey. I'm guessing that Erdogan just told Putin via a Russian ambassador to Turkey that the Turks are going to escort some grain ships, and not to mess around with the convoys or find out the hard way and end up with a Russian Navy 20 times smaller than the Turkish Navy.

I bet Erdogan likes to stick a finger in Putin's eye every now and again just to remind him, that Turkey isn't some backwater 3rd rate ex-Soviet Republic that Russia can push around.

[Percy Rideout]

I bet Erdogan likes to stick a finger in Putin's eye every now and again just to remind him, that Turkey isn't some backwater 3rd rate ex-Soviet Republic that Russia can push around.

Switch Turkey with Russia. This is what Poots does from time to time to the Neoliberal world order.

[summit]

I bet Erdogan likes to stick a finger in Putin's eye every now and again just to remind him, that Turkey isn't some backwater 3rd rate ex-Soviet Republic that Russia can push around.

It doesn't matter that Turkey has more minor surface combatants. Russian could end the entire Turkish Navy in a day or two. That is one thing Russia can do: sink warships when their location is known and their defenses are minimal. But doing so would be Article 5 in all caps, so Russia never would. Russia could accidently sink a Turkish ship without risking their own fleet, but it would be a long time before Russia was able to ever sail the straits again... probably not until they compensated Turkey bigly.

About 7 years ago a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian Su-24 on the Syrian border because the Russians were bombing the Turkish proxies in Syria.

But he then bought the Russian S-500 system and got kicked out of the F-35 program over it.

Erdogan only cares about Erdogan and he is happy to both play Putin against the rest of NATO and play NATO against Putin.

He's not "our asshole" he's just an asshole.

[subtle plague]

Switch Turkey with Russia. This is what Poots does from time to time to the Neoliberal world order.

But will he save you and Benny from hillary, Soros and the child porn pizza new World order? That remains to be seen.

[ex-powderbroker]

The Mariupol Plan

[Toadman]

It doesn't matter that Turkey has more minor surface combatants. Russian could end the entire Turkish Navy in a day or two. That is one thing Russia can do: sink warships when their location is known and their defenses are minimal. But doing so would be Article 5 in all caps, so Russia never would. Russia could accidently sink a Turkish ship without risking their own fleet, but it would be a long time before Russia was able to ever sail the straits again... probably not until they compensated Turkey bigly.

About 7 years ago a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian Su-24 on the Syrian border because the Russians were bombing the Turkish proxies in Syria.

But he then bought the Russian S-500 system and got kicked out of the F-35 program over it.

Erdogan only cares about Erdogan and he is happy to both play Putin against the rest of NATO and play NATO against Putin.

He's not "our asshole" he's just an asshole.

A day or two? Just like that 3 day Special Military Ops in Ukraine? IDTS. Russia has bit off more than it can chew. They went from backing out of the grain shipment deal, to suspending participation, to being back on board in 24 hours. Russian navy would get it's ass handed to it. That's why Putin back peddled so hard. (And, yes, probably because Turkey would demand Article 5 be invoked if Russia did attack Turkish interests.) That and Erdo probably promised to allow weapons shipments from NK to flow through the straits. (Probably some cash in a Swiss bank vault too.)

[Tri-Ungulate]

The Mariupol Plan

+1, excellent read.

[highangle]

A day or two? Just like that 3 day Special Military Ops in Ukraine? IDTS. Russia has bit off more than it can chew. They went from backing out of the grain shipment deal, to suspending participation, to being back on board in 24 hours. Russian navy would get it's ass handed to it. That's why Putin back peddled so hard. (And, yes, probably because Turkey would demand Article 5 be invoked if Russia did attack Turkish interests.) That and Erdo probably promised to allow weapons shipments from NK to flow through the straits. (Probably some cash in a Swiss bank vault too.)

Bro why would they bother with that when Russia and NK share a border?

[neufox47]

UK MOD says:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...tm_name=iossmf


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[MultiVerse]

In spite of all the problems Russia is having with equipment and mobilization, it has been a success in terms of achieving their goal of stopping Ukrainian advances.

Out of 300K called up 90K were immediately sent to Ukraine, probably another 90K managed to slip away which leaves another 140K or so in training. So in spite of the Russian junk show, there are now an additional ~90K Russian troops or cannon fodder in defensive positions that Ukraine has to engage with.

Russian causalities are horrific, of course, but mobilization worked and that's why Putin still believes he can come away with a win of sorts.

[subtle plague]

Russian causalities are horrific, of course, but mobilizations worked and that's why Putin still believes he can come away with a win of sorts.

I think the correlations are much worse.

[Cisco Kid]

Winter slows the war at the front down to a crawl. Partisan attacks in occupied territory should increase. Continued aid to Ukraine is key. Politics will say which way the war will go. Putin is a hero the much of the GOP base.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...gainst-russian

[MultiVerse]

Yeah it's weird, hard-right feelings in America about the Russian invasion amount to "Putin hates trans people so he must be OK"

[skaredshtles]

Yeah it's weird, hard-right feelings in America about the Russian invasion amount to "Putin hates trans people so he must be OK"

There are a lot of morans in this country.

[highangle]

Yeah it's weird, hard-right feelings in America about the Russian invasion amount to "Putin hates trans people so he must be OK"

When one considers that most hard righters are hard right because they lack the sort of morality that makes Putin so obviously bad to most everyone else...it's not at all weird.

[MultiVerse]

The irony is they admire Putin for his 'strength' but Erdogan made Putin his b*tch:

1. Putin says no more Ukrainian grain ships
2. Erdogan says Turkish navy will make sure he's wrong. 20 ships immediately sail from Odessa
3. Putin backs down says he's only suspending grain deal, begs Erdogan to guarantee safety of Russian fleet
4. Putin agrees to rejoin grain deal
5. Morans praise Putin's stratergy for tweeking the Neoliberal world order

[highangle]

The irony is they admire Putin for his 'strength' but Erdogan made Putin his b*tch:

1. Putin says no more Ukrainian grain ships
2. Erdogan says Turkish navy will make sure he's wrong. 20 ships immediately sail from Odessa
3. Putin backs down says he's only suspending grain deal, begs Erdogan to guarantee safety of Russian fleet
4. Putin agrees to rejoin grain deal
5. Morans praise Putin's stratergy for tweeking the Neoliberal world order

You're just witnessing some of the effects of the worldwide Duganist propaganda and financing war Putin has been waging for decades. There are Rand Pauls and Tom Cottons and Gerhard Schroeders and fucking Brexits and fucking Orbans and Obradors and Bolsonaros and fucking Donald Trumps throughout "the West"...PootyPoot's 5th Column efforts were so successful that it's no wonder his hubris got the better of him...

[Toadman]

Bro why would they bother with that when Russia and NK share a border?

Not sure. Maybe they can get more on a ship than trucking these heavy artillery shells to Russia, and then trying to get them from the NK/Russia border to the front lines. Maybe it's a 2 for 1 deal and stop off in Iran and load up on Iranian weaponry too.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/a...s-white-house/

[LongShortLong]

I read a study several years ago comparing tariff reductions to cost reductions in international cargo shipping. One of the factoids was that sea shipping between any two ports cost roughly the same as 100 miles of land shipping, ignoring tariffs. Numbers may differ for DPRK/RU, ofc, but the point is ships are efficient cargo movers.

I haven't seen it mentioned any where, but it's also possible Russia has a shortage of locomotives. Ukraine likes to target logistics and may have destroyed a bunch of choochoos. I mean, if I were Ukrainian, I'd be working on missile guidance that recognizes train tracks and targets any heat signature on the track. Ukrainians have had 8 years to think about this, I bet at least one has solved this problem.