Ukraine

[LongShortLong]

^^^ the EU should guarantee their safety and that they will be housed outside of Ukraine if they surrender. Put them up in quasi luxurious accommodations (by POW standards) and broadcast that as far as possible.


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I'd like to see a serious attempt at this. I can come up with many reasons why it wouldn't work, but it's still an excellent PR move.

[Toadman]

^^^ the EU should guarantee their safety and that they will be housed outside of Ukraine if they surrender. Put them up in quasi luxurious accommodations (by POW standards) and broadcast that as far as possible.


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After the slaughter of UA POW's by the Russians, I think the level of Russian paranoia of the same fate befalling them might make them very hesitant to surrender. Or maybe those chickenshit Russian murderers would fold like a bunch of whiny cry babies.

[MultiVerse]

Always better to admit mistakes and change course than it is to stay stubbornly attached to them:

- As a strategic and environmental imperative 75% of Germans now want to continue the operations of Germany's remaining nuclear power plants. And 41% want to build new nuclear power plants because of the energy crisis.

- Henry Kissinger, a person who typically lacks self-criticism in spite of many past mistakes, no longer thinks Russia's unprovoked invasion is the fault of Western countries. He says due to Russia's genocidal behavior in Ukraine, “now I consider, one way or the other, formally or not, Ukraine has to be treated in the aftermath of this as a member of NATO.”

[jono]

Always better to admit mistakes and change course than it is to stay stubbornly attached to them:

- As a strategic and environmental imperative 75% of Germans now want to continue the operations of Germany's remaining nuclear power plants. And 41% want to build new nuclear power plants because of the energy crisis.

- Henry Kissinger, a person who typically lacks self-criticism in spite of many past mistakes, no longer thinks Russia's unprovoked invasion is the fault of Western countries. He says due to Russia's genocidal behavior in Ukraine, “now I consider, one way or the other, formally or not, Ukraine has to be treated in the aftermath of this as a member of NATO.”

Climate change denial really has been one of Pootin's most successful campaigns. He got a lot of help, but it's bizarre how a country that so blatantly abuses its status as a gas station to bully the neighbors and disrespect the property lines was able to pull off something so obvious for so long.

[jono]

^^^ the EU should guarantee their safety and that they will be housed outside of Ukraine if they surrender. Put them up in quasi luxurious accommodations (by POW standards) and broadcast that as far as possible.


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I don't know if that has quite the same effect as if the Ukrainians hand them the phone, but either way, 25k calls to mom seems like a good plan. Hopefully soon.

[PB]

Always better to admit mistakes and change course than it is to stay stubbornly attached to them:

- As a strategic and environmental imperative 75% of Germans now want to continue the operations of Germany's remaining nuclear power plants. And 41% want to build new nuclear power plants because of the energy crisis.

- Henry Kissinger, a person who typically lacks self-criticism in spite of many past mistakes, no longer thinks Russia's unprovoked invasion is the fault of Western countries. He says due to Russia's genocidal behavior in Ukraine, “now I consider, one way or the other, formally or not, Ukraine has to be treated in the aftermath of this as a member of NATO.”

Henry's 99 years old; he yells at galaxies.

[This End Up]

The guy interviewed in the video below offers some sobering perspective on Ukraine:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5HDD6e7mn4

[MultiVerse]

I don't think Andrew Bustamante says anything that hasn't been covered in this thread. I like that he makes an easily verifiable prediction or bet: He says it's a mathematical certainty Putin will take the South of Ukraine including Odessa all the way to the border of Moldova before winter.

I think he's wrong because given the way Ukrainians are fighting the outcome of the war is a policy choice of the West. The West will continue to support Ukraine. He thinks the same thing, that the outcome is a policy choice, except he believes the West and Europe in particular will abandon Ukraine as Winter approaches.

He also gets a lot of details wrong about Western aid and Western interests.

[ötzi]

We should put a note in the calendar to check Bustamente's prediction on December 1.

[neufox47]

Even if Europe stops sending military aid, the US has provided more than all of Europe. Europe would have to stop allowing aid to travel through its borders as well as stopping its own aid. I see no way the US stops sending aid to UA nor should we.

https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/2...ne-by-country/



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[LongShortLong]

Once again, Lex seems to be signal boosting anti-establishment Q-adjacent nutters. I'm sorry I clicked this link.

[MultiVerse]

Yeah, his analysis was pedestrian and boilerplate. Much more focused on self-promotion by presenting worldview than any real expertise.

In other news, the Russian backed propaganda group Grey Zone (they made a few appearances in this thread when the Mariupol theater was bombed) posted images on Telegram promoting a story about Russia's Wagner mercenaries, including pics taken at a regional headquarters in occupied Ukraine showing an address. The Ukrainian army then used HIMARS to take out the Wagner group HQ.

[riser4]

Yeah, his analysis was pedestrian and boilerplate. Much more focused on self-promotion by presenting worldview than any real expertise.

In other news, the Russian backed propaganda group Grey Zone (they made a few appearances in this thread when the Mariupol theater was bombed) posted images on Telegram promoting a story about Russia's Wagner mercenaries, including pics taken at a regional headquarters in occupied Ukraine showing an address. The Ukrainian army then used HIMARS to take out the Wagner group HQ.

Well done. Bravo.

[dunfree]

100 miles of coastline and a city of a million people in three months for an attacking army that’s barely advanced in two months seems far from a certainty.

[Tri-Ungulate]

Hey, Bustamante has math on his side.

And wouldn't it December 21st, not the 1st ötzi?

[Toadman]

Hey, Bustamante has math on his side.

And wouldn't it December 21st, not the 1st ötzi?

Have to wonder what math equation Bustamante is using. In terms of land taken, yes, they are winning the land grab math. But the cost of taking that land looks to be pretty steep in terms of man and machine. I guess we shall see how the variables in Bustamante's equation change.

[ötzi]

And wouldn't it December 21st, not the 1st ötzi?

I knew somebody was gonna call me on that but it's fukkin' cold there so I decided to speak meteorologically.

[MultiVerse]

He says by fall, before winter, so meteorologically makes sense. He's a certain kind of cooky cutter prognosticator:

February: Russia will not invade, the West should negotiate
March: Russia will soon win, the West should negotiate
April: Russia will be humiliated, the West should negotiate
May: The West will stop sending aid, …
June: Russia is winning, …
July: The West is escalating ,…
August: Russia will take the south by autumn and the West will have to negotiate

[jono]

The tankies like Pootin's hope for two-party talks. Two-party talks between Russia and "the West" inherently invalidate Ukrainian sovereignty so Russia wins.

From Czechoslovakia to Afghanistan, two-party talks are always about sacrificing someone who's not at the table. North Korea loves the idea--as long as it's not with South Korea.

[abraham]

He says by fall, before winter, so meteorologically makes sense. He's a certain kind of cooky cutter prognosticator:

February: Russia will not invade, the West should negotiate
March: Russia will soon win, the West should negotiate
April: Russia will be humiliated, the West should negotiate
May: The West will stop sending aid, …
June: Russia is winning, …
July: The West is escalating ,…
August: Russia will take the south by autumn and the West will have to negotiate

I thought Ukraine will fall to russia in 3 days? Just 3 more days this time, not like the last time. I promise.

The tankies like Pootin's hope for two-party talks. Two-party talks between Russia and "the West" inherently invalidate Ukrainian sovereignty so Russia wins.

From Czechoslovakia to Afghanistan, two-party talks are always about sacrificing someone who's not at the table. North Korea loves the idea--as long as it's not with South Korea.

North and South korea is a good example. You don't have to read many sentences into Ukraine's constitution to understand their position. The Minsk agreements had to work around it and, well, you can see how that went.

Also, fuck tankies. No need to listen to dipshits. Especially fascistic ones.

[ex-powderbroker]

It seems like Ukraine should stop talking about the elite ops in Crimea unless they're out and want Russia wasting time chasing ghosts. Otherwise maybe this an excuse for military leadership to start burnishing their political credentials?

In other news, the USA is trying to declare Russian diamonds as from a conflict zone, which will make them harder to sell. Good.

[summit]

Meanwhile our best buddy Turkey announces they are buying more Russian S400 SAMs

[riser4]

Can we seize the straights and tell Turkey to go fuck itself? Kidding, not kidding.

[dunfree]

It seems like Ukraine should stop talking about the elite ops in Crimea unless they're out and want Russia wasting time chasing ghosts. Otherwise maybe this an excuse for military leadership to start burnishing their political credentials?

One of the attacks in crimea today was reportedly a drone dropping munitions. It would take lots of resources/substantial change in behavior for Russia to counter that, and forcing that might be an aim of Ukraine.

[ex-powderbroker]

even if it’s an old order, wouldn’t it set them up for more defense industry sanctions? erdogan is a prick trying to have this both ways.