Ukraine

[dunfree]

It's truly amazing how many artillery and missiles and bombs Russia has expended on Ukraine. There must be multiple factories working 24/7 3 shifts/day mfg. artillery rounds, small arms ammo, bombs and missiles. Seems like it will be a very long and uphill battle for Ukraine to absorb that kind of punishment and be able to dish it out too.

a field pockmarked with shells is failure, not success

storming trenches after inaccurate artillery barrages is ww1 shit

[highangle]

Switchblade 300 in Uke hands: https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...e_us_provided/

[neufox47]

Switchblade 300 in Uke hands: https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...e_us_provided/

I’d like to see some M270 MLRS in Ukrainian hands.

[LongShortLong]

Kissinger's probably like most old men who can't remember recent events. So he has no picture of today's Putin.


Don't forget Putin's doings in Belarus

[The Reverend Floater]

EU is debating wether to stop importing Russian oil and gas

Seeing that Russian oil and gas revenues are already at 50 other of the total planned for 2022, this is an incredible stupid move.

It will send Europe's costs higher, and increase Russia's revenues.

Other sanctions probably work.

But i wonder how much longer European population will put up with the higher cost of heating. The natural gas prices are 3 times higher there then in the us.
And the US is sending LNG to Europe, increasing the heating cost to American consumers. Natural gas prices are a lot higher than a year ago. I hope this will not cause voters to shift republican this fall.

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Bots gonna bot.

[CarlMega]

Kyiv Independent response to calls for appeasement:

https://kyivindependent.com/opinion/...itorial-board/

I'd say they nailed it.

[rod9301]

Bots gonna bot.

Was my post too complicated for you to reply to some of the issues?



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[frorider]

It’s foolish to lump ‘Russian oil and gas’ into one discussion bucket, or treat the EU homogeneously. https://carnegieendowment.org/eurasiainsight/87160

[rod9301]

It’s foolish to lump ‘Russian oil and gas’ into one discussion bucket, or treat the EU homogeneously. https://carnegieendowment.org/eurasiainsight/87160

Interesting article, but what's your point?

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[jono]

Interesting article, but what's your point?

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Here's a point: if you think buying more from bad actors is the way to get them to change and that buying less makes them poorer then maybe communism was never really the problem in the first place.

Could we at least start from something concrete and accurate, like basic economics? What possible benefit do you see to buying more Russian oil and gas?

We should be raising the gas tax, selling from the SPR and drilling for quick oil--while someone convinces those poor Germans to put the reactor back online and for the love of St. Javelin, put some long range rockets where they can reach the Russian artillery.

But what's the quisling alternative? Buy high, sell low, always negotiate from a position of weakness?

[J. Barron DeJong]

Here's a point: if you think buying more from bad actors is the way to get them to change and that buying less makes them poorer then maybe communism was never really the problem in the first place.

Could we at least start from something concrete and accurate, like basic economics? What possible benefit do you see to buying more Russian oil and gas?

We should be raising the gas tax, selling from the SPR and drilling for quick oil--while someone convinces those poor Germans to put the reactor back online and for the love of St. Javelin, put some long range rockets where they can reach the Russian artillery.

But what's the quisling alternative? Buy high, sell low, always negotiate from a position of weakness?

Sorry, but I’ve got bad news regarding those missiles you’re requesting:



https://twitter.com/darthputinkgb/st...uB9aeKMcpk4oAw

[jono]

Never again--to us. Other people aren't us.

TBF, those aren't the missiles I'm looking for. I think we should be sending HIMARS.

[LongShortLong]

A sensible oil and gas proposal I saw said Russia's consumers should pay about what it costs to pump and deliver. That is, Russia makes about nothing on sales. The delta to market price should be held in an escrow account until Russia ends its war and settles its obligations. Anything remaining in the account goes to Russia. Causes the least short-term market disruption, gives Russia some incentive to continue exporting, and prevents Russia from benefiting from exporting until after the war is resolved.

It's probably upthread a few dozen pages. It included the idea that since the oil trade depends on western nations for insurance, shipping, and just about everything, even third-party exports (to say India) are forced into the scheme.

[rod9301]

Here's a point: if you think buying more from bad actors is the way to get them to change and that buying less makes them poorer then maybe communism was never really the problem in the first place.

Could we at least start from something concrete and accurate, like basic economics? What possible benefit do you see to buying more Russian oil and gas?

We should be raising the gas tax, selling from the SPR and drilling for quick oil--while someone convinces those poor Germans to put the reactor back online and for the love of St. Javelin, put some long range rockets where they can reach the Russian artillery.

But what's the quisling alternative? Buy high, sell low, always negotiate from a position of weakness?

You're right, no benefit from buying Russian oil.

But Russia supplies a lot of oil and it is impossible for all other countries to make up for the lost oil production.

So from a practical standpoint, if eu doesn't buy Russian oil but instead buys it from Saudi Arabia, whoever bought it before from the Saudis, now has to buy it from Russia.

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[Cono Este]

Now we’re sending mlrs rocket launchers.

I think it’s safe to say, with advanced weapons platforms like this, that are miles behind enemy lines, that we’re sending advisors with them.

I’d imagine any soldier with a working knowledge of Ukrainian or Russian language is now in the involuntary employment of the CIA


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[Toadman]

Now we’re sending mlrs rocket launchers.

I think it’s safe to say, with advanced weapons platforms like this, that are miles behind enemy lines, that we’re sending advisors with them.

I’d imagine any soldier with a working knowledge of Ukrainian or Russian language is now in the involuntary employment of the CIA


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Wouldn't be at all surprised if there are a bunch of spooks running around in UA.

[jono]

There are Americans blogging on the ground. I'm sure CIA can go where they need to. Dubious that CIA has many personnel that are better trained on MLRS than Ukrainian soldiers.

[MultiVerse]

Yeah, while we shouldn't be surprised to learn American intelligence is on the ground in Ukraine I don't think it's for the reason suggested above. The fact is pound for pound Ukrainian infantry and artillery soldiers are probably the best in the world right now and if anything we're learning as much from them as they are from us.

It will depend on the number sent but with a 70km GPS guided range US HIMARS & MLRS will make current Russian tactics a lot more difficult.

[Toadman]

No kidding!

There are Americans blogging on the ground. I'm sure CIA can go where they need to. Dubious that CIA has many personnel that are better trained on MLRS than Ukrainian soldiers.

Okay, MLRS is working, time for a snack!

https://twitter.com/bhginee/status/1...OMRAFeYiYWJ8FA

[jono]

You're right, no benefit from buying Russian oil.

But Russia supplies a lot of oil and it is impossible for all other countries to make up for the lost oil production.

So from a practical standpoint, if eu doesn't buy Russian oil but instead buys it from Saudi Arabia, whoever bought it before from the Saudis, now has to buy it from Russia.

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This is exactly why we should be focusing on cutting demand. We're 2 years out from being paid to take oil off their hands when demand fell far enough. We need to stop being ok with buying $6 gas and start being ok NOT buying it.

The Saudis are giving soft help to the Russians by keeping production down in the hope that a crisis in the US will go well for the guy they just "loaned" $2B. If that works for them, what's the next move? MBS is about done cementing power and we're teaching him how to treat us. I don't care how cynically pro-Trump you are, MBS is likely to outlast a generation of American politicians and no one is going to be glad they made a deal with that devil.

So there are no good options, only less bad. Cutting demand is easily the least bad. Gas tax now.

[Cono Este]

There are Americans blogging on the ground. I'm sure CIA can go where they need to. Dubious that CIA has many personnel that are better trained on MLRS than Ukrainian soldiers.

I disagree

According to this, 6 weeks of training. Simulators live fire etc. And even then youre certainly placed with experienced crew.

No fucking way they can operate these things with zero experience, shitty English, and a week or two of training in Poland.

https://www.nationalguard.com/13m-mu...tem-crewmember


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[jono]

I disagree

According to this, 6 weeks of training. Simulators live fire etc. And even then youre certainly placed with experienced crew.

No fucking way they can operate these things with zero experience, shitty English, and a week or two of training in Poland.

https://www.nationalguard.com/13m-mu...tem-crewmember


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"Some of the skills you’ll learn are:

Calculating target locations manually and electronically
Handling ammunition
Operating gun, missile and rocket systems
Artillery tactics and battle strategy


HELPFUL SKILLS

Interest in cannon and rocket operations
Physical and mental fitness to perform under pressure
Ability to multitask
Capability to work as a team member
2-6 years killing orcs"

Ok, I added the last one. But come on, you think there's "no way" for an experienced soldier to learn a new piece of equipment in 2 weeks? You need to get out of St Louis.

[summit]

Ukraine must retake Izium, Mariupol, and Kherson

They also need to find a way to restore shipping traffic so that their grain harvest can supply the world, but that will probably be impossible without NATO going to the brink with some kind of "open sea lanes" commitment that could quickly evolve into sinking a Russian submarine or shooting down a Russian strike bomber. What's more, it likely would require Turkish allowances for NATO warships while still blocking the Russians.

AsCMs might keep the Russian surface fleet in port, but a Kilo SSK can leave Sevastapol submerged, patrol, attack, lay mines, and never surface until returning to port.

[jono]

Ukraine must retake Izium, Mariupol, and Kherson

They also need to find a way to restore shipping traffic so that their grain harvest can supply the world, but that will probably be impossible without NATO going to the brink with some kind of "open sea lanes" commitment that could quickly evolve into sinking a Russian submarine or shooting down a Russian strike bomber. What's more, it likely would require Turkish allowances for NATO warships while still blocking the Russians.

AsCMs might keep the Russian surface fleet in port, but a Kilo SSK can leave Sevastapol submerged, patrol, attack, lay mines, and never surface until returning to port.

My understanding is that Turkey can block entry to belligerents during a conflict. That seems to leave a gaping hole for non-belligerent escort ships. But what port would they go to? Particularly if they wind up having to act. Presumably Turkish ports would be open to NATO vessels, but what then?

[Cono Este]

"Some of the skills you’ll learn are:

Calculating target locations manually and electronically
Handling ammunition
Operating gun, missile and rocket systems
Artillery tactics and battle strategy


HELPFUL SKILLS

Interest in cannon and rocket operations
Physical and mental fitness to perform under pressure
Ability to multitask
Capability to work as a team member
2-6 years killing orcs"

Ok, I added the last one. But come on, you think there's "no way" for an experienced soldier to learn a new piece of equipment in 2 weeks? You need to get out of St Louis.

No man, I don’t. All those systems and manuals are in English. Artillery field guns are one thing, but the computer systems used for targeting etc are complex.

Imagine you and I showing up at FT Still and after a week driving away and using that thing precisely? No way. And we speak English.

Summit??


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