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  1. #426
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    Quote Originally Posted by rod9301 View Post
    Buying when stocks are below fair value is not timing the market.

    Buying stocks when they are expensive will not provide good returns.



    Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk
    In theory--ie an efficient market with rational actors--stocks are always at or very close to their true vaue--whatever that is. And for the most part it's true, although from time to time irrationality takes over--see Bitcoin. The wisdom of crowds. So knowing that a stock is truly undervalued implies some private source of information and buying before everyone else figures it out. Which is illegal, unless you're in Congress. Which is why fund managers, supposedly experts in the field unlike you and I, cannot consistenly do better than index funds over time.

  2. #427
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    Quote Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong View Post
    How is that not timing the market? Whatís your definition of timing the market if itís not that?

    Of course buying something that undervalued and selling something overvalued is a good strategy. The problem is that basically no one can achieve that consistently in practice.
    Well, here's my definition.
    Timing the market means trying to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. Which, in my mind is unknowable.

    On the other hand, you know when a stock is below fair value, however you define this, and when is so far above fair value that future returns will be low.

    This means that when a stock is above fair value it may go up a lot higher, but it doesn't matter, you're not trying to maximize profits, your trying to make a reasonable profit.

    Graham described this very well in his book, written 100 years ago.

    Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

  3. #428
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    Rod is absolutely right, timing the market is a very different thing than timing a particular stock. And there absolutely are people who make money doing this. Doing it on an individual level is also not the same as doing it on an institutional level.
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
    "I'd eat a bag of Dicks and wash it down with a Coke any day." - iceman

  4. #429
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    Rod is absolutely right, timing the market is a very different thing than timing a particular stock. And there absolutely are people who make money doing this. Doing it on an individual level is also not the same as doing it on an institutional level.
    Yes, sorry, didnít realize we were talking about undervalued stocks vs market as a whole.

    Iíd suggest that there is a shit tonne of research over the past century showing how fraught that endeavor is as well. Vanguard exists for a reason.

    Remember that for every purchase youíre making because you think itís undervalued, thereís someone on the other side happy to get rid of it at that price.

    If you enjoy the gambling aspect of it, and you have the funds to play with, then sure pick some sticks if thatís your thing. But I wouldnít recommend doing it money youíre relying on for retirement if for an emergency fund.

  5. #430
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    And yet.

    For fiscal conservatives

    Bonds aint so hot this year

    It’s a valid question. Where to invest in an inflationary rising interest rate market.

  6. #431
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    Quote Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong View Post
    Yes, sorry, didnít realize we were talking about undervalued stocks vs market as a whole.

    Iíd suggest that there is a shit tonne of research over the past century showing how fraught that endeavor is as well. Vanguard exists for a reason.

    Remember that for every purchase youíre making because you think itís undervalued, thereís someone on the other side happy to get rid of it at that price.

    If you enjoy the gambling aspect of it, and you have the funds to play with, then sure pick some sticks if thatís your thing. But I wouldnít recommend doing it money youíre relying on for retirement if for an emergency fund.
    Just for clarity, Iím not suggesting investing Ďconservativelyí. If youíre a long way from retirement you should have most of your money invested in stocks. You can whether the volatility and stocks would be expected perform better over the long term.

    Iím just saying most people shouldnít be picking and choosing which stocks to buy, and when to buy them.

  7. #432
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    Jesus. Apologies for typos and quoting myself. Apparently Iíve got a turkey hangover.

  8. #433
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    My hangover is pumpkin pie and wine.
    The turkey, as always, was too dry.

    Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

  9. #434
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
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    Behind the Zion Curtain
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    I started investing in stocks in April of 2020. Putting every penny I come across into my account, I currently have $90,846 of my own money into my account. My account sits at $107,715, I took out 15k in August 2021 to buy fishing/camping property. That pencils out to a 35.08% increase, in roughly 2 1/2 years. I put in money as I get it so gains are not linear.

    I’m pretty confident I can beat the market picking individual stocks and trying to time it, while also using those individual stocks to juice returns with options. I currently have 10.8k cash in my account, nothing I’m watching looks particularly cheap right now.

    I have a few dogs I’ve picked but I still have the faith long term in most of them and am still buying as they go down. I’m not any kind of financial savant and think anyone that pays attention could beat the market.

    I still maintain putting money in midstreams at 6-9% yields, you probably won’t achieve much share growth but that DRIP will start to accumulate. It isn’t an exciting short possibility, nor growth phenomenon, but that shit will keep growing.

    Or, if you want set and forget it, put it in funds.

  10. #435
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    Oct 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by BobMc View Post
    I started investing in stocks in April of 2020. Putting every penny I come across into my account, I currently have $90,846 of my own money into my account. My account sits at $107,715, I took out 15k in August 2021 to buy fishing/camping property. That pencils out to a 35.08% increase, in roughly 2 1/2 years. I put in money as I get it so gains are not linear.

    I’m pretty confident I can beat the market picking individual stocks and trying to time it, while also using those individual stocks to juice returns with options. I currently have 10.8k cash in my account, nothing I’m watching looks particularly cheap right now.

    I have a few dogs I’ve picked but I still have the faith long term in most of them and am still buying as they go down. I’m not any kind of financial savant and think anyone that pays attention could beat the market.

    I still maintain putting money in midstreams at 6-9% yields, you probably won’t achieve much share growth but that DRIP will start to accumulate. It isn’t an exciting short possibility, nor growth phenomenon, but that shit will keep growing.

    Or, if you want set and forget it, put it in funds.
    ďI mean, yeah, the stock market pretty much always goes upĒ- Warren Buffet.

  11. #436
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    Quote Originally Posted by rod9301 View Post
    My hangover is pumpkin pie and wine.
    The turkey, as always, was too dry.

    Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk
    Shit, this isnít Ben Shapiro is it?!

    Click image for larger version. 

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  12. #437
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    Barron's on how to Put Your Cash to Work: 3 Strategies For Making the Most of High Yields.

    https://archive.ph/Zk2Uf
    ďThe best argument in favour of a 90% tax rate on the rich is a five-minute chat with the average rich person.Ē

    - Winston Churchill, paraphrased.

  13. #438
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nobody Famous View Post
    Barron's on how to Put Your Cash to Work: 3 Strategies For Making the Most of High Yields.

    https://archive.ph/Zk2Uf
    I have no recollection of writing thatÖ

  14. #439
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    Feb 2008
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    Three Bs
    watch out for snakes

  15. #440
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    Jul 2005
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nobody Famous View Post
    Barron's on how to Put Your Cash to Work: 3 Strategies For Making the Most of High Yields.

    https://archive.ph/Zk2Uf
    Opened a savings account with CIT for my EF after reading this, thank you

  16. #441
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    Not sure where to put this but if anybody knows the answer they're probably lurking in this thread.

    Self-employed sole proprietor looking to open a solo-401k that supports mega backdoor Roth. I don't have time to DIY this year, so looking for a TPA. Any self-proclaimed experts doing this that can recommend a TPA?
    Last edited by North; 12-18-2022 at 10:42 PM.

  17. #442
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    Quote Originally Posted by boltonoutlaw View Post
    Opened a savings account with CIT for my EF after reading this, thank you
    A write up from the WSJ similar to the Barron's article, paywell free:

    Six Ways to Protect Your Money in 2023: https://archive.vn/KPrbg
    ďThe best argument in favour of a 90% tax rate on the rich is a five-minute chat with the average rich person.Ē

    - Winston Churchill, paraphrased.

  18. #443
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    Dec 2012
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    I can still smell Poutine.
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    Quote Originally Posted by LsaissLai View Post
    For me, stocks and cryptocurrency are casino game.
    The house always wins.

  19. #444
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    $2 to the MegaJilluons thread, best return on investment around.

  20. #445
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    Dec 2010
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    I have a condo i bought a few years back at 4.25%. Have since married, made a kid, and bought a house on the other side of town. I now rent the condo for a $200 profit each month (enough to keep up with assessments and maintenance). As a family we are in a good place with finances (no debt other than mortgages, large emergency fund, live well below our means etc).

    I have a chunk of cash just hanging out right now. Too afraid to put it into the market currently (i have a maxed 401k and a YOLO etrade account), so im thinking of just paying down the principal on the condo mortgage. I wouldnt totally pay it off, but it would halve the principal at this point. Think that is a good idea, or should i just keep the powder dry for now? I would like to have cash-on-hand in the next 5-10 years to buy and develop property on my own (something closely related to my day job) so that is a consideration too.

  21. #446
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    Quote Originally Posted by californiagrown View Post
    I have a condo i bought a few years back at 4.25%. Have since married, made a kid, and bought a house on the other side of town. I now rent the condo for a $200 profit each month (enough to keep up with assessments and maintenance). As a family we are in a good place with finances (no debt other than mortgages, large emergency fund, live well below our means etc).

    I have a chunk of cash just hanging out right now. Too afraid to put it into the market currently (i have a maxed 401k and a YOLO etrade account), so im thinking of just paying down the principal on the condo mortgage. I wouldnt totally pay it off, but it would halve the principal at this point. Think that is a good idea, or should i just keep the powder dry for now? I would like to have cash-on-hand in the next 5-10 years to buy and develop property on my own (something closely related to my day job) so that is a consideration too.
    It would depend on how risk averse you and your wife are. Similar situation financially, though I don't have the condo. Wife does not want any mortgage even though we refinanced in 2020 to a 15yr at 1.875%. She keeps putting extra money to principle every month.

    If I were you, I'd keep it dry for a while. I think we're going to see some bargains on assets coming this year and those in position to move quickly will benefit greatly. The return on the condo principal is OK, but the prices here in Seattle area (you're North Bend, right) are declining. I'd hold on to potentially get some distressed assets.

  22. #447
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    Jan 2004
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    If the condo is already cash flow positive and the principal owed is already less than itís worth then let the renter pay it down. Put the money elsewhere. Me, Iíve been buying stocks for the last two months. Or pay the condo off, get a home equity line against it at half the interest rate and move on to the next thing. All depends on what you want to accomplish.

  23. #448
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    Quote Originally Posted by phatty View Post
    It would depend on how risk averse you and your wife are. Similar situation financially, though I don't have the condo. Wife does not want any mortgage even though we refinanced in 2020 to a 15yr at 1.875%. She keeps putting extra money to principle every month.
    I mean - at this point, you should be able to fairly easily get more than 1.875% on other investment vehicles, so paying the 15y note early doesn't seem to make a lot of sense.

  24. #449
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    In order to properly convert this thread to a polyasshat thread to more fully enrage the liberal left frequenting here...... (insert latest democratic blunder of your choice).

  25. #450
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    Sep 2006
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    Chickens. Invest in chickens.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

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