The Great Resignation ‘21

[fastfred]

Because you make margin on subs? If you don’t want to pay all the overhead, go be the sub of a sub. You’ll only get profit on your own work though. But you know that.

my point is why do some people get to skate around labor laws and other people follow them?

[Bushwacka]

We think alike on this topic yet the FED and markets have made a joke of my beliefs and logic forever. When will we be finally vindicated?

October 25th Spooky Monday.

[skiJ]

Why can’t we grow the debt forever? Why don’t we want to? I mean, eventually the US of A will probably end. I don’t predict that happening tomorrow or next week or next decade, and forestalling that as long as we can avoid deflation (which is a far bigger concern than inflation at present) then I don’t know what forces would not allow us to continue to issue debt.

And a burst bubble means something collapses. What is going to collapse? The service economy? Maybe…but I doubt it. The digital economy? I don’t understand it well enough to make a prediction there. Crypto? Probably….but that just shifts elsewhere.

" I don’t know what forces would not allow us to continue to issue debt. "

partisan politics. ( or a social revolution )


I'm sorry - I am not interested in a debate for which the foundation is, 'Why can't we grow debt forever? '
I agreed with you characterization that it may not be a gaseous 'bubble', but rather a viscous balloon ;
efforts to minimize the significance of Debt are lost on me. that's Just me.
Whatever works for you, go with it --

creating Debt for future generations is not the way things are done in my Family, and I marvel at the expense we incur as a society so people don't have to stop at a stop light ( 'spaghetti junctions' in cities of 50,000 )


I believe we need to be careful what we wish for.

with due respect. tj

[Conundrum]

my point is why do some people get to skate around labor laws and other people follow them?

Because our legislators are bought and sold but we know that too. And some employers know they can make more even if they get caught. See first point. Lastly, when have you ever turned in a competitor or sub you know is skirting taxes and insurance costs by illegally bending employer/1099 laws? No one has the sack in the building industry because they know they’ll lose their own sub relationships. And if you do things by the books, you’re not in the running to win bids on Richie Rich’s ski chalet.

Or, most people are greedy in one way or another.

[Mustonen]

You think that the Fed can increase the amount of currency in circulation 35% and there won't be repercussions? I mean, it saved us from having to face a massive recession in the middle of a global pandemic, but somebody is going to have to pay the piper at some point.

Define “in circulation.” Those who needed to spend it spent it, but lots of that is just sitting there, not doing anything. Elon Musk’s bank account goes from $100B to $150B. What do you suppose that means for the masses? Bitcoin went through the roof. Netflix stock has doubled. What does that have to do with the price of bread?

[SumJongGuy]

We can't even work together to fight the pandemic. We have totally effective tools FREELY available to us to deploy and adopt that will get everyone back to work and everything logistically moving again. Yet a significant portion of society is good with burning it all down rather than agreeing with who they see as adversaries.

How can a society this splintered work together to save what's left of our crumbling infrastructure and reduce the debt hemorrhaging? At some point we need the wealthiest to contribute big towards those goals. They've brainwashed a large cult to be completely opposed things that benefit everyone instead of just them selves via the "socialism" boogie man.

Without everyone being on board.. we all go down in flames eventually..

[hatchgreenchile]

Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize-winning economist and Times Opinion columnist, has described the trend as “the revolt of the American worker.”

Heh - just adding that lessons 7-9 are applicable to this thread now, especially on our national debt (TL/DR - DEBT: GDP is what you need to pay attention to)
https://www.masterclass.com/classes/...cs-and-society

[Mustonen]

" I don’t know what forces would not allow us to continue to issue debt. "

partisan politics. ( or a social revolution )


I'm sorry - I am not interested in a debate for which the foundation is, 'Why can't we grow debt forever? '
I agreed with you characterization that it may not be a gaseous 'bubble', but rather a viscous balloon ;
efforts to minimize the significance of Debt are lost on me. that's Just me.
Whatever works for you, go with it --

creating Debt for future generations is not the way things are done in my Family, and I marvel at the expense we incur as a society so people don't have to stop at a stop light ( 'spaghetti junctions' in cities of 50,000 )


I believe we need to be careful what we wish for.

with due respect. tj

To be clear, I’m not advocating for anything, but I’m not sure I buy into the idea of impending doom either; at least not the doom being described. I’m also not saying it’s all roses, I’m just saying that what we’re looking at here literally has no parallels and can’t be prognosticated using history or parables or old sayings.

Also, and with due respect, the economics of a country issuing debt and a family taking on debt are so wildly different that it’s probably not useful to even make the analogy except in some very narrow circumstances.

[Timberridge]

Without everyone being on board.. we all go down in flames eventually..

According to Lord Tytler, a Scottish Historian, the average age of the world's democracies is around 200 years. After two hundred years, the nations collapse due to various economic policies.

[rideit]

I’m interested in the “college dropout crisis”, this is the first that I have heard of it being a noteworthy trend. But I imagine college during ‘20 with Covid was fucked up and lame.

[fastfred]

Because our legislators are bought and sold but we know that too. And some employers know they can make more even if they get caught. See first point. Lastly, when have you ever turned in a competitor or sub you know is skirting taxes and insurance costs by illegally bending employer/1099 laws? No one has the sack in the building industry because they know they’ll lose their own sub relationships. And if you do things by the books, you’re not in the running to win bids on Richie Rich’s ski chalet.

Or, most people are greedy in one way or another.

I have never turned anyone in and don't really want to get into that game, I only make snide comments to people who are carrying asbestos contaminated drywall to the hoa dumpster, got to do it this summer its always funny, people have turned me in over the years for stuff though it's pretty lame

there is always the rumor stories about so and so who ended up getting audited and lost everything
I've been audited, it's a pain in the ass, thats about it, the state of co is pretty serious about auditing small businesses for the employee subcontractor situation, it's a numbers game since my employee wage total is super high it doesn't trigger anything with the state

the insurance companies have a their hand up your ass more than the gov't these days but since the anti gov't rant is cool and most people don't deal with insuring a business they don't get it

[yeahman]

But I imagine college during ‘20 with Covid was fucked up and lame.

But still expensive af.

I have read that women are far outpacing men in getting college educations, and that trend is accelerating.

[SumJongGuy]

More than people wanting to be paid well, the supply bottlenecks are starting to REALLY impact the bottom line of large multinational firms. It's even more than just store shelves being empty during the busiest shopping season of the year, a season where many retail firms do 80% of their entire annual business. A lot of these firms have changed from a retail hardware business model to a recurring revenue services and software model. That fails miserably when the clients who paid for the service can't get it because the parts to deliver that warranty work aren't available. Buckle up.. that's going to crash some big players if it's not resolved pretty quickly..


Also, I'm wondering how the next year or two of company wide PC refreshes will go with no chips to build PCs...

[old_newguy]

We can't even work together to fight the pandemic. We have totally effective tools FREELY available to us to deploy and adopt that will get everyone back to work and everything logistically moving again. Yet a significant portion of society is good with burning it all down rather than agreeing with who they see as adversaries.

How can a society this splintered work together to save what's left of our crumbling infrastructure and reduce the debt hemorrhaging? At some point we need the wealthiest to contribute big towards those goals. They've brainwashed a large cult to be completely opposed things that benefit everyone instead of just them selves via the "socialism" boogie man.

Without everyone being on board.. we all go down in flames eventually..

The wealthy are only interested in transferring that national debt number into their own pocket.

They are only interested in using the line “reducing the debt” to suit their political goals. Otherwise they would flex their considerably influence with politicians and do something about it.

It’s everything we are talking about in this thread:

It turns out you can only suppress real wages, treat low wage workers as “essential” while simultaneously shitting on them, close schools, allow childcare options to wither, inflate the real estate market out of reach of normal people, not invest in basic infrastructure, cut taxes on wealthy people, make healthcare something only certain people can access while also making it financially ruinous to get sick, throw cash around Willy nilly to people who will abuse the PPP program, etc etc.


Profit over people, growth at all costs, greed, crap politics, legal bribery of politicians under the guise of “speech”, it’s all going to come home to roost. I just hope it looks less like a civil war or the French Revolution and more like unionization, people voting and changes to laws.

[dunfree]

You think that the Fed can increase the amount of currency in circulation 35% and there won't be repercussions? I mean, it saved us from having to face a massive recession in the middle of a global pandemic, but somebody is going to have to pay the piper at some point.

Ah yes, the tgr slumlords getting all in on hard money once they’ve got theirs.

[old_newguy]

To be clear, I’m not advocating for anything, but I’m not sure I buy into the idea of impending doom either; at least not the doom being described. I’m also not saying it’s all roses, I’m just saying that what we’re looking at here literally has no parallels and can’t be prognosticated using history or parables or old sayings.

Also, and with due respect, the economics of a country issuing debt and a family taking on debt are so wildly different that it’s probably not useful to even make the analogy except in some very narrow circumstances.

Well, at a minimum, if we are going to compare the national budget and debt to a family budget we need to acknowledge that mom and dad voluntarily took a pay cut for “reasons” while also dropping a pile of cash off at the rich guys house on the corner every week.

No wonder they are living on credit.

[SumJongGuy]

The wealthy are only interested in transferring that national debt number into their own pocket.

They are only interested in using the line “reducing the debt” to suit their political goals. Otherwise they would flex their considerably influence with politicians and do something about it.

It’s everything we are talking about in this thread:

It turns out you can only suppress real wages, treat low wage workers as “essential” while simultaneously shitting on them, close schools, allow childcare options to wither, inflate the real estate market out of reach of normal people, not invest in basic infrastructure, cut taxes on wealthy people, make healthcare something only certain people can access while also making it financially ruinous to get sick, throw cash around Willy nilly to people who will abuse the PPP program, etc etc.


Profit over people, growth at all costs, greed, crap politics, legal bribery of politicians under the guise of “speech”, it’s all going to come home to roost. I just hope it looks less like a civil war or the French Revolution and more like unionization, people voting and changes to laws.

Yep this.. all so they can have warehouses full of million dollar cars and now even their own space ships.. Let them eat cake LOL..

[sirbumpsalot]

According to Lord Tytler, a Scottish Historian, the average age of the world's democracies is around 200 years. After two hundred years, the nations collapse due to various economic policies.

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.”

[dunfree]

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.”

Do you wear Velcro shoes now?

[bagtagley]

The Black Plague gave power to the lowly laborer and ultimately led to the end of feudalism. That probably had more to do with the high death toll, but there are some interesting parallels between that pandemic and this one.

[skiJ]

To be clear, I’m not advocating for anything, but I’m not sure I buy into the idea of impending doom either; at least not the doom being described. I’m also not saying it’s all roses, I’m just saying that what we’re looking at here literally has no parallels and can’t be prognosticated using history or parables or old sayings.

Also, and with due respect, the economics of a country issuing debt and a family taking on debt are so wildly different that it’s probably not useful to even make the analogy except in some very narrow circumstances.

( Reserved. pm sent. tj )

gentle men...

Please Be careful what you project here.

My issues are two : 1. response to covid; and 2. generational Debt ( in response to a comment about ' bringing on Financial collapse ' on the order of magnitude that led to the Great Depression. )

you financial guys can wax poetic about the National economy and GDP and make claims about there being 'literally no parallels' and no relevant history ( 'can't be prognosticated with history' ) and it is that ...


( My horse manure) .


though there is a difference of scale, and a difference in available Science-and-technology, as a species and a Country, there are plenty of parallels to the Influenza epidemic of 1918 ;

financially, the call up-thread was, 'bring on Financial collapse ( that led to the Great Depression ) ' .
Maybe that can't happen today. but too much of the world is chaotic for me to have confidence that it cannot (happen).

Just ten years ago, I saw friends lose careers they had worked hard at for more than a decade - decent, hardworking people. two lost more than their careers...
it was called a Recession. ...


generational Debt is a matter of values - it is not a matter of 'Economics' --
I am probably misusing the term. I am taking about Debt that one generation leaves for descendants.


IF you want to have a genuine "discussion" , I am reluctantly willing to try to participate; however,
if we are just here for entertainment, and are going to ( deliberately. Maybe Not ) misrepresent what other people are saying, I respectfully Decline.


thanks. skiJ

[fastfred]

Yep this.. all so they can have warehouses full of million dollar cars and now even their own space ships.. Let them eat cake LOL..

the whole space ship flying to outer space and then claiming to care about the environment talk about excess and waste we have reached the pinnacle

[skaredshtles]

<snip>
Also, and with due respect, the economics of a country issuing debt and a family taking on debt are so wildly different that it’s probably not useful to even make the analogy except in some very narrow circumstances.

This. When people start spouting this horseshit, I simply tune them out... because there's no point in even discussing a comparison this dumb.

[::: :::]

I just hope it looks [snip] more like unionization, people voting and changes to laws.

Stepping waaaay back...

There is a fundamental problem with our form of government: it is incapable of understanding the complexity of the current state of the country.

Senators & Congresspeople are unable to understand the various industries, trades & infrastructures (financial, physical, cultural, research, natural resource, educational, etc) in any substantive way because the fields are so varied, specialized and vast. To come to grips with understanding & guiding all these forces in society is overwhelming to a tiny staff tasked with doing that. It has become absurd and naive. In a way, we have outgrown our form of management.

It isn't just voting in a "businessman" or a "progressive" or a "former military" candidate...the people who go with good intentions are overwhelmed.

Even if we can disconnect the lobbyists from the pipeline of researching/writing/influencing legislation, we still have the problem that the government is ill-prepared to consider the multivariable issues in any substantive way independent of that lobby crutch. Some sort of shift in our management expectations has to happen, but that is a seismic change in and of itself.

Add to this the idealist expectation that we "just change it," as if it won't involve a complete reconstruction of our understanding of government. Idealized "progress" isn't possible the way we do things now. It's just talking & banging our heads against the same rock.

Incremental shifting of values will slowly tip the bow of this insanely large ship towards a different horizon, but much too slowly to make substantive changes in our daily lives...

[TahoeJ]

It seems to me that the people who suffer much from being made poor people by a massive financial collapse is rich people.

Umm... so actually, huge financial collapses, generally speaking, are how the wealthy become ultra wealthy. For example, from 2009 - 2012 or so, people with capital scooped up all the real estate they could get their hands on and made a killing. Now they've unloaded it and are just waiting for the next cycle.