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  1. #276
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    People who can't handle self checkout should not be allowed to drive.
    Well heres the thing, if you have booze many stores dont allow you to use it, so thats an issue.
    I ski 135 degree chutes switch to the road.

  2. #277
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bushwacka View Post
    I mean the US government can kick the can down the road for a pretty long time. There is no denying that.

    still a bubble is a bubble.
    What do you suppose any of that means, anyways? Bubble of what? Bursting to what? Whats the road? Whats the kick?

    Not entirely directed at you, but this kind of stuff sounds like shit you heard your parents talk about at the dinner table and are repeating with a sober tone to your schoolyard buds.
    focus.

  3. #278
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mustonen View Post

    Not entirely directed at you, but this kind of stuff sounds like shit you read on Reddit and are repeating with a sober tone to your TGR buds.
    FIFY

  4. #279
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mustonen View Post
    What do you suppose any of that means, anyways? Bubble of what? Bursting to what? Whats the road? Whats the kick?

    Not entirely directed at you, but this kind of stuff sounds like shit you heard your parents talk about at the dinner table and are repeating with a sober tone to your schoolyard buds.
    stock market is over bought. Even Buffet thinks so.

    The US government can keep interest rates low and keep extending the debt ceiling for ever....well maybe no forever.

  5. #280
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    Click image for larger version. 

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    www.apriliaforum.com

    "If the road You followed brought you to this,of what use was the road"?

    "I have no idea what I am talking about but would be happy to share my biased opinions as fact on the matter. "
    Ottime

  6. #281
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    Not an economist, but it sure feels to me like there is a covid 'bubble' -
    give everyone 2400. (or more) ; there is a news story today of the businessperson who used the 'covid relief' money his business received to buy a lake house and a fleet of vehicles ;

    the bill for the vaccination and testing programs gets added to the Debt, the last time I looked it was reported at 28T ( twenty-eight Trillion ).

    feels like a bubble to me. skiJ


    ( ^^^ see two previous posts. )

  7. #282
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    It seems to me that the people who suffer much from being made poor people by a massive financial collapse is rich people. I've already been poor and know how to survive just fine and even be somewhat happy as a poor person. Financial collapse worse than 1929?? Bring it!
    Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!

  8. #283
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    Forum Cross Pollinator

  9. #284
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    If you are gonna talk about the national debt, you should really put it in context to GDP or at least something. Throwing out hudge numbers is misleading. There's no frame of reference. But yeah, shit is cray.

    Check these out:

    https://www.usdebtclock.org

    https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

  10. #285
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    Quote Originally Posted by skiJ View Post
    Not an economist, but it sure feels to me like there is a covid 'bubble' -
    give everyone 2400. (or more) ; there is a news story today of the businessperson who used the 'covid relief' money his business received to buy a lake house and a fleet of vehicles ;

    the bill for the vaccination and testing programs gets added to the Debt, the last time I looked it was reported at 28T ( twenty-eight Trillion ).

    feels like a bubble to me. skiJ


    ( ^^^ see two previous posts. )
    duh

    have you seen my van?

  11. #286
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    Quote Originally Posted by altasnob View Post
    How many mags have long term care insurance? How many think it is a wise thing to purchase? .
    I think it would be a wise thing to purchase, and I got a bunch of quotes a few months ago. It seemed prohibitively expensive so we didn't get it.

  12. #287
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    Quote Originally Posted by TahoeJ View Post
    Well here’s the thing, if you have booze many stores don’t allow you to use it, so that’s an issue.
    that’s a state law thing. California protected union clerk jobs in the name of “protecting children”.

    long ago Fred meyer self checks had a programming error - for about a week. When you scanned booze it prompted for an Id check, the clerk would come over, check Id, enter their code, etc. the error was everything you scanned while it was prompting to check Id wouldn’t be added to your bill, but would check ok with their anti theft scale.

  13. #288
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    Quote Originally Posted by fastfred View Post
    the greatest generation: work this job for forty years buy a nice modest home cars and you will be taken care of

    boomer: born into the biggest economic growth ever get handed everything on silver platter talk about how you pulled yourself up by your boot straps and hate on the gov't

    gen x: whatever

    millennials: don't worry I'm going to fuck you over before you fuck me over I'm not stupid

    the millennials will eventually change things for the better the current debt that the boomers are forcing us into so they can continue to live their good life is beyond ridiculous some one needs to put an end to it

    many people don't care about working because they are betting that things will fall apart and fall quickly in the next couple years
    just got a report on the building industry and costs it's pretty sobering
    Might be the most coherent and on point fastfred post Ive ever read.


    Sent from my iPad using TGR Forums

  14. #289
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    Quote Originally Posted by SumJongGuy View Post
    It seems to me that the people who suffer much from being made poor people by a massive financial collapse is rich people. I've already been poor and know how to survive just fine and even be somewhat happy as a poor person. Financial collapse worse than 1929?? Bring it!
    I believe the phrase,
    ' be careful what you wish for... '
    applies.


    skiJ

  15. #290
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    Quote Originally Posted by skiJ View Post
    Not an economist, but it sure feels to me like there is a covid 'bubble' -
    give everyone 2400. (or more) ; there is a news story today of the businessperson who used the 'covid relief' money his business received to buy a lake house and a fleet of vehicles ;

    the bill for the vaccination and testing programs gets added to the Debt, the last time I looked it was reported at 28T ( twenty-eight Trillion ).

    feels like a bubble to me. skiJ


    ( ^^^ see two previous posts. )
    Bubble of what though? Im not saying this all isnt going to unwind, even messily, but bubbles pop because theres nothing under there. This feels more like its just gonna ooze all over in unpredictable ways.
    focus.

  16. #291
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    Quote Originally Posted by altacoup View Post
    Might be the most coherent and on point fastfred post I’ve ever read.


    Sent from my iPad using TGR Forums
    This must have been pre-blunt, but hard agree. As far as bubbling - it feels like there will be a long deflation of goods prices as companies try to hold onto the increases they've been able to get in cars, GPU's and other stuff.

  17. #292
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    Quote Originally Posted by schuss View Post
    This must have been pre-blunt, but hard agree. As far as bubbling - it feels like there will be a long deflation of goods prices as companies try to hold onto the increases they've been able to get in cars, GPU's and other stuff.
    So you are predicting deflation? interesting... Is this in the near-term?

  18. #293
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mustonen View Post
    What do you suppose any of that means, anyways? Bubble of what? Bursting to what? Whats the road? Whats the kick?

    Not entirely directed at you, but this kind of stuff sounds like shit you heard your parents talk about at the dinner table and are repeating with a sober tone to your schoolyard buds.
    M -

    I think you need to answer your own questions --

    to me, USofA still hasn't recovered from the "Recession" of 2009/2010 - We just keep growing the Debt. and that does not last forever ;

    we use comfortable terms like 'bubble' and 'jab' ( apparently English slang ) and 'vaxx' Because it makes things feel more understandable -
    Some of it is (understandable), and a lot of it is not.

    the 'bubble' may be fluid-filled, and messy, as you claim.
    two posts up-thread express anticipation for the next 'financial failure' and attempt to minimize the risk of Debt.
    the Crash of 1929 led to the Great Depression; no one born after 1940 knows what that was like ( a decade of unemployment and homelessness that took WWII to essentially end ).
    I don't know what that was like, but my parents did.

    We can rationalize about Debt, and to me, that's exactly what it is, rationalizing.

    I believe 'the road' is the future, and
    ' the kick' is deferred debt.
    another thread refers to free vaccine. it's not free --

    I believe 'the bubble' is a balloon filled with debt and (social toxin) - But that's Just me.

    I have friends who were wiped-out in 2009. the businesses they worked for or with ( several were 'independent contractors', working for businesses that are Gone ).
    suburban Detroit felt like a ghost town to me...
    many recovered; some did not.

    A great depression is not working from home for a lot less -
    it's Unemployment and homelessness.

    I believe 'We' need to be careful what we wish for.


    respectfully. skiJ

  19. #294
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    Quote Originally Posted by schuss View Post
    @Asspen -
    Data - more equipment have sensors that can be evented/sucked out for intelligence. Think stuff like soil temp/moisture etc. If you can leverage stuff effectively, you'll be able to build an edge over competition in many domains.
    Cost basis - modern serverless cloud stuff costs only compute/storage on top of labor, so rather than paying 5-10k for server+hosting+Colo, it's like 35-100 bucks a month (scaled with volume) or less to run pretty significant workloads. In one case one of our guys built a fully featured website for a charity that's just in storage and costs 12 bucks a year to host. If you're running and staffing your own data center you're likely paying for unused capacity during most times and scaling requires capital investment and time vs a line of code. Modern cloud stuff is fucking magic if you do infra as code.

    So this put together you can get better Insights and efficiencies through sensors and analysis while paying much less for the processing and general overhead.
    I love this place. Thank you for attending to the thread drift with a well though out response.

    Now, onto the "bubble"

    We are seeing some of these technocrats and tech companies as modern day railroad robber barons. Facebook and Amazon knowingly gutted local newsrooms around the country and gobbled up the local ad dollars as media consumption changed in the past decade.

    Do they get broken up by gov't? A lot of people are opining that the latest facebook "whistleblower" is just a ruse by Zuck and Co. to force their hand with more active censorship on the platform, and not break up that sweet sweet monopoly they have going.

    Look at how history treats our other whistleblowers. (Jail, exile, public flogging with every intimate detail of their pasts exposed). None of this happened to this woman. This lady gets primetime interviews and speaks infront of congress within a week? Rest assured if Zuck considered her a threat we would see some of the above at play.
    Skiing in the rockies is like 70's porn

    Lots of bush

    Some wood

    No faceshots...

    -Mtnlion

  20. #295
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    Why cant we grow the debt forever? Why dont we want to? I mean, eventually the US of A will probably end. I dont predict that happening tomorrow or next week or next decade, and forestalling that as long as we can avoid deflation (which is a far bigger concern than inflation at present) then I dont know what forces would not allow us to continue to issue debt.

    And a burst bubble means something collapses. What is going to collapse? The service economy? Maybebut I doubt it. The digital economy? I dont understand it well enough to make a prediction there. Crypto? Probably.but that just shifts elsewhere.
    focus.

  21. #296
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    You think that the Fed can increase the amount of currency in circulation 35% and there won't be repercussions? I mean, it saved us from having to face a massive recession in the middle of a global pandemic, but somebody is going to have to pay the piper at some point.

  22. #297
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    Quote Originally Posted by Name Redacted View Post
    If you are gonna talk about the national debt, you should really put it in context to GDP or at least something. Throwing out hudge numbers is misleading. There's no frame of reference. But yeah, shit is cray.

    Check these out:

    https://www.usdebtclock.org

    https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html
    Holy shit, so the unfunded liability of SS has increased from $13.2 trillion in 2018 to $21.5 trillion today. Wonder when thats gunna come crashing down.

  23. #298
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    Quote Originally Posted by skiJ View Post
    M -


    I have friends who were wiped-out in 2009. the businesses they worked for or with ( several were 'independent contractors', working for businesses that are Gone ).
    suburban Detroit felt like a ghost town to me...
    many recovered; some did not.


    respectfully. skiJ
    this
    pretty much all of mountain town construction is a sub of a sub of a sub or the 1099 employee
    the reason why is cause business owners want as much money in their pockets as possible with as little overhead as possible
    second third and fourth homeowners don't want to pay the true costs so it's allowed

    now big business is rewriting the laws so they can hire subcontractors instead of employees and profit cause its such a great system

    I was pissed as hell when the flu hit the fan and suddenly all the 1099 employees were allowed to access benefits as if they were an employee
    fuck that I pay UE and payroll taxes and every bit of insurance every day and they all got a pass? wtf

  24. #299
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    Quote Originally Posted by fastfred View Post
    this
    pretty much all of mountain town construction is a sub of a sub of a sub or the 1099 employee
    the reason why is cause business owners want as much money in their pockets as possible with as little overhead as possible
    second third and fourth homeowners don't want to pay the true costs so it's allowed

    now big business is rewriting the laws so they can hire subcontractors instead of employees and profit cause its such a great system

    I was pissed as hell when the flu hit the fan and suddenly all the 1099 employees were allowed to access benefits as if they were an employee
    fuck that I pay UE and payroll taxes and every bit of insurance every day and they all got a pass? wtf
    Because you make margin on subs? If you dont want to pay all the overhead, go be the sub of a sub. Youll only get profit on your own work though. But you know that.

  25. #300
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    NYT email this morning addresses the worker shortage.

    Good morning. How can so many Americans afford not to work? And will it last?

    I can be choosy

    A shortage of bus drivers has forced school districts to combine routes. A lack of servers has caused restaurantsto reduce hours. And you may have noticed that the checkout lines at supermarkets, drugstores and other retailers have grown.

    The labor shortage of 2021 is both conspicuous and perplexing. How is it, after all, that several million people who were working before the pandemic are now getting by without a paycheck?

    There is no single answer, but a crucial part of the explanation is that Americans are flush with cash.

    (Mondays newsletterdetailed how the cash glut is also causing rising inflation and supply-chain problems like backed-up ports.)

    Thanks to pandemic stimulus programs during both the Trump and Biden administrations, many families have received multiple checks from the federal government over the past 18 months. Those stimulus programs also increased the size of unemployment benefits. Over the same period, home values and stock prices have risen, too.

    As a result, many households have more of a financial cushion than they used to. If anything, the recent increases in savings have been larger at the bottom of the economic spectrum than at the top:

    With this cushion, some workers especially those in service industries disrupted by Covid-19 have decided that they did not like their old jobs enough to return. Others have simplyquit their jobs.

    A low-wage economy

    That should not be entirely surprising. The American economy of the past few decades has not been very kind to workers.

    Since the 1980s, incomes for the poor, the working class and much of the middle class have grown slowly,failing to keep upwith either economic growth or the incomes of the affluent. Other quality-of-life measures are also flashing red. Life expectancy has grown more slowly in the U.S. than in dozens of other countries. Drug use, alcohol use, chronic pain and suicide have risen among the working class, while marriage and self-reported satisfaction have declined (as these charts show).

    Many, many people are realizing that the way things were prepandemic were not sustainable and not benefiting them, Rachel Eager, 25, who previously worked at an after-school program in New York, told my colleague Ben Casselman.

    Eager is now looking for a new job, but she is not in a rush. My financial situation is OK, and I think that is 99 percent of the reason that I can be choosy about my job prospects, she said. So far, she has not been willing to take another job with low pay, no benefits and little flexibility.

    Her attitude is telling. The U.S. does not have a pure labor shortage so much as it has a shortage of workerswilling to accept the working conditionsthat todays economy often demands.

    Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize-winning economist and Times Opinion columnist, has described the trend asthe revolt of the American worker.Betsey Stevenson, a University of Michigan professor, calls itthe take this job and shove it economy.

    There are also labor shortages in someother countries, probably related to their own large pandemic stimulus programs. But the situation seems to be most intense in the U.S.

    A turning point?

    The big uncertainty is what happens next.

    One possibility is that we have entered a new era of tight labor markets. With more Americans choosing not to work including aging baby boomers companies would then need to increase pay and improve working conditions to attract employees. Some are already doing so, Ben Casselmannotes: Hourly wages in the leisure-and-hospitality sector, for example, have surged this year.

    In this scenario, the pandemic would represent a turning point. Almost a half-century of a low-wage economy would end, and incomes would grow more rapidly, as they did from the 1940s until the early 70s.

    But I find it hard to believe this is the most likely scenario.

    For one thing, the financial cushion of most households still is not large. The median cash savings of the bottom quarter of households (ranked by earnings) has risen by 70 percent over the past two years but its still only about $1,000, Fiona Greig of the JPMorgan Chase Institute points out. And the pandemic stimulus programs have mostly ended.

    Eventually, more Americans will feel the need to go back to work. When they do, they will find a job market where employers hold a decided power advantage, because of the decline of labor unions and an increase in corporate concentration.The college dropout crisis, leaving many workers struggling to keep up with technological changes, plays a role, too.

    President Biden and many other Democrats favor a set of policies intended to put workers on more even footing with their employers. The agenda includes paid family leave, expanded child tax credits, subsidized child care,a crackdown on anti-union activitiesanda more aggressive approach to corporate consolidation.

    But it is unclear how many of those ideas will become law. Congressional Republicans haveexpressed concernsabout some of these same trends but oppose most policy responses. Congressional Democrats have razor-thin margins in Congress and dont yet agree about what laws to pass.

    In the meantime, Ben says, the labor market is in a standoff: Workers are holding out until their savings disappear. Businesses are holding out until their customers disappear.

    You can readhis story about the job shortage. It also describes some of the causes of the shortage other than the cash glut, like Covid fears and a dearth of day-care options.

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