22 Blue - Looking ahead to the New (aka Fuck Summer (aka Tahoe Thread))

[k2skier112]

I appreciated the irony of somebody from the PNW asking if "22" referred to a Hwy, given that this is the Tahoe (i.e. California) thread and there is a Hwy 22 which is located in Oregon (i.e. PNW)...
(Fwiw, the other Hwy 22 traverses Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey; again, not Tahoe)

That was actually a typo, I meant road, not Hwy, I know there's no CA 22, near Tahoe. Thx
FYI there's is a CA hwy 22 in LA

[gnarbro365]

The season doesn't start until 2022.

So this is the ‘22-‘23 thread?

No wonder it hasn’t snowed since October…you guys wrote off the whole ‘21-‘22 season before it even began.

Or maybe it’ll start snowing in January 2022?

Harsh toke either way.

[NakedShorts]

If we could only call an actual audible. No signs of blowing this AM. I guess we are just waiting for Mo Nature to get back to us. Funny how October was better than November for the white stuff.

[powdork]

foo foo 22 BLUE - Inside Slider by next TUE

[dookeyXXX]

"Any chance for significant snowfall is still in the fantasy range..."

https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe

[powdork]

yeah the inside sliders rarely mean significant precip for us, but usually do mean colder temps and the gfs has places getting 6-7". Typically that would be the Rose area with a slider and combined with snowmaking could open them for sure

[k2skier112]

So this is the ‘22-‘23 thread?

No wonder it hasn’t snowed since October…you guys wrote off the whole ‘21-‘22 season before it even began.

Or maybe it’ll start snowing in January 2022?

Harsh toke either way.

That's what threw me off. It's the 21/22 season.
We're all getting edgy with lack of snow

[lepistoir]

Mon/Tue: dry, blustery, and cold. Only consolation is snowmaking.
Thu/Fri: Splitter. We get squat. Ridge rebuilds.
Prove me wrong!!!

[thefortrees]

I’m coming down that way dec 7/8 timeframe and looks like I’ll be bringing the mountain bike…

[dookeyXXX]

I skied locally today.
Milking the October leftovers.
North facing was frozen C&H pure cane sugar at 3:30 pm.
Managed to snag 13 turns on an obstalom (obstacle slalom) slope (hat tip to Powdork for the term; I originally deemed it a "slabstacle").
Came face to face with a bear while I was scoping out some other potential lines. We stared each other down and then he turned tail and sauntered away.
Not sure if I would have gotten corn had I gone earlier in the day...

[fomofo]

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/...d-16660437.php

[gimpy]

Backyard was totally locked up today even with the inversion keeping higher elevation temps way above freezing overnight. They haven’t been able to blow any new snow all week……sigh

[powdork]

meanwhile, future freeheeling from the past out blue lakes road and huckleberry canyon

[NakedShorts]

People who attach linear progressions to natural phenomena need to be re-educated

[Wobby]

People who attach linear progressions to natural phenomena need to be re-educated

Just wondering why linear isn't appropriate for rough baseline understanding/to check out trend?

[davjr96]

Just wondering why linear isn't appropriate for rough baseline understanding/to check out trend?

Just to be clear, not going to argue with the content of that article, just the info graphic.

Things are rarely linear. To start things off, first of all that chart has no real data points or numbers. You could just as easily draw the line going up and I bet it would look correct to a majority of readers.

70 years isn't really that big of a time frame in the grand scheme of things. You can make a chart say whatever you want with your time period. Say we started the chart at 1988 and ended at 2000. Clearly the snowpack level is generally increasing! Let's say it did not snow at all in the 40s, or snowed a massive amount. That would have a great affect on whether or not the line showed an increase or a decrease. At the same time, a few good years in the 2020s would make it look level.

Lastly in statistics there is a thing called an "Correlation Coefficient". https://www.dummies.com/education/ma...coefficient-r/
I bet you its not that high for the graph in question, but once again there isn't even any data to tell.

The graph was clearly chosen to prove the articles point and not to have hard scientific data. If I submitted that in a high school science paper I would have failed. I bet the actual study has much more hard data including r values and real charts.

[NakedShorts]

Just wondering why linear isn't appropriate for rough baseline understanding/to check out trend?

Checking the TREND is fine - Assuming it will go on forever is WRONG.

[Mokomahonah]

Soon the snow will be falling up

Sent from my 5007Z using Tapatalk

[frorider]

Agree with davjr.

I’m 99% confident that one could show these data within the decade of the 1970s are statistically equal (avg, avg plus 2 std deviations, etc) to the decade of 2010s; but comparing those two decades as ‘equal’ would then be a less exciting headline.

[dookeyXXX]

I just got back from skiing Lower Tamarack.
It was brisk up there.
Trying to figure out where all the December corn is, cuz the EF slope was borderline boiler plate at 1:30.
Also, the jib kids and snow play Jack nuggets need to learn some etiquette. The entire lower face looked like a herd of elephants had been waltzing all over the place. I had a hard time finding a clean line and my exit back to the lot rattled my fillings.
Is it really that hard to just set one boot-pack rather than tromp all over what could have been some fun lines?

[old goat]

If you guys are going to critique the graphic you need to go to the source, not the Chron article. Before you say that the graph isn't valid because there are no statistics, why don't you read the original article and check out the statistics yourselves? You might also look at the methods in the original paper to see why they started when they did, and not earlier.
(The article is paywalled unless you have access through an institution. )

[Blaster]

(The article is paywalled unless you have access through an institution. )

Fuck the paywalls, use Sci Hub. https://sci-hubtw.hkvisa.net/

[old goat]

Fuck the paywalls, use Sci Hub. https://sci-hubtw.hkvisa.net/

Fuck Sci Hub. Don't support intellectual property theft--in Kazahkstan, China, the US, anywhere.

[lepistoir]

Fuck Sci Hub. Don't support intellectual property theft--in Kazahkstan, China, the US, anywhere.

Fuck IP. Vaccines need to be made everywhere possible at full speed right now.

[thefrush]

meanwhile, future freeheeling from the past out blue lakes road and huckleberry canyon

Watched this last night. The straight line in the shadow to the mach looney tele turn in the light was fucking rad. Along with everything else that was also, fucking rad.