The Supply shitshow

[Buzzworthy]

Picked up a bag of Halloween candy today. Still plenty of selection this late in the game.

Was half off at Smith’s today, restocked now after some annual Milkyway and Reese’s consumption. Sounds like a majority of kids here are hitting it tonight.

Fire pit ready, joints rolled, beer is chilled.

[Harry]

Fire pit ready, joints rolled, beer is chilled.

Mind if I steal this phrase and make it the motto of my island ?


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[SumJongGuy]

Needs a hot tub too..

[Buzzworthy]

Mind if I steal this phrase and make it the motto of my island ?


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Only with an invite and a T-shirt when they’re ready

[old goat]

A lot of shortages are spot shortages and very localized IMO. Rite Aid is always out of stuff--the same stuff the Safeway a few doors down has plenty of. (But it was that way before the pandemic too.) And Rite Aid recently had something Safeway had been out of for weeks. I've had a little spurt of online ordering lately and everything has been in stock, on time, and at the usual price.

Just pray your major appliances and car keep it together for another year or two.

[riser4]

I was amused how the show The Expanse had shipping containers, even in the distant future, with some familiar brands.

[LongShortLong]

Supply chain update
Saw about a dozen cargo ships anchored in SF Bay.
My snow tire order due last Wednesday shipped from the north bay to the central valley to the east bay, still not delivered. It's never been more than 50 miles from its destination. Fedex ground.
Sure are a lot of Amazon vans around.
Grocery orders continue to fill like always (occasional missing items or substitutions.)

[Woodsy]

Interesting Article if a bit terrifying:


https://medium.com/@ryan79z28/im-a-t...d-bbe0ebac6a91


There is no financial incentive to fix the problem, actually the inverse.

[SumJongGuy]

THIS YEAR, AUTONOMOUS TRUCKS WILL TAKE TO THE ROAD WITH NO ONE ON BOARD

SkyNet to the rescue?

[Dantheman]

Interesting Article if a bit terrifying:


https://medium.com/@ryan79z28/im-a-t...d-bbe0ebac6a91


There is no financial incentive to fix the problem, actually the inverse.

Sobering. More automation will help, but there's definitely a financial incentive to maintain the shitshow.

[old goat]

Sobering. More automation will help, but there's definitely a financial incentive to maintain the shitshow.

It's what many industries and businesses are discovering--you can make more money serving fewer people for increased prices. Airlines are another example. And coming soon to a ski area near you, if it's not already their.

[LongShortLong]

Interesting Article if a bit terrifying:


https://medium.com/@ryan79z28/im-a-t...d-bbe0ebac6a91


There is no financial incentive to fix the problem, actually the inverse.

Sounds like what DeJoy is doing at the post office. Slowing delivery just creates a storage problem, and complicates the logistics.

My take is there's a substantial incentive to fix the problem. Whoever fixes it gets customers. And perhaps a premium. Why give Fedex* $10 for late packages, when TRGex delivers on time for $12.

That said, it's entirely possible there's a monopolist entity preventing change and extracting "value." Could be a current port owner has no incentive to expand capacity, and no competition from (or also owns the) neighboring ports. BNSF has a lock on most of west cost rail. The longshoreman's union has a lot of influence at all the west coast ports. My impression is warehouse and trucking firms have many owners. Did someone acquire all the logistics companies that manage scheduling?

Of course with a tight system, even a smallish player could profit by jamming it up temporarily. Lose a few days work to jam up the system for weeks or months - weeks or months of charging high rates.

I read somewhere that Port of LA unloaded 20% more containers than ever this year. 20% more freight could snarl the system without any nefarious actors.

* picking on Fedex because they have my tires w/in 50 miles for the last week.

[Danno]

It's what many industries and businesses are discovering--you can make more money serving fewer people for increased prices. Airlines are another example. And coming soon to a ski area near you, if it's not already their.

Yes, agreed, but...

My take is there's a substantial incentive to fix the problem. Whoever fixes it gets customers. And perhaps a premium. Why give Fedex* $10 for late packages, when TRGex delivers on time for $12.

This. It's what ski areas discovered in the late 90s, that charging a lot less brings in way more customers and more money. So sure, many businesses are discovering that they can make the same or more money serving fewer people, but they're just creating an opportunity for other businesses. Someone will -- sooner or later -- step in with lower prices and steal the customers (and acquire the customers who "dropped out".

[Toadman]

Yes, agreed, but...



This. It's what ski areas discovered in the late 90s, that charging a lot less brings in way more customers and more money.

Yep, and the biggest discovery by the ski industry is that skiers are willing to deal with large bottlenecks and stand in long lines for 30-45 minutes or longer. No need to invest in infrastructure. Charge more for less service is a Capitalist's wet dream. After all, they ain't building more ski resorts.

[Dantheman]

And coming soon to a ski area near you, if it's not already their.

For now Wasatch ski resorts need to keep pass prices down and demand high so that UDOT will spend billions on transportation improvements in the canyons. When it's all finally built out prices will go to the moon.

[jackstraw]

https://www.jhnewsandguide.com/jacks...6b2c7c177.html

"Add the fact that companies are ordering — and hoarding — more goods and parts than they need so they don’t run out, and you end up with an almost unquenchable demand that is magnifying the supply shortages."

I think part of this is everyone's computer system factors in lead times and those have been so stretched they're ordering more items on each order.

[geomorph]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect
Sometimes economists come up with good names for these effects.

[ötzi]

Yeah but they have to call it something else in Reno.

[jackstraw]

Yeah but they have to call it something else in Reno.

That went right over my head, but googles to the rescue. So now I can respond...WTF?

[MontuckyFried]

Copy/paste from Great Resignation thread. This was actually where I meant to post it:

This trucker perfectly describes a MAJOR part of the situation at hand:

A 20-year truck-driving veteran explains why the solution to the supply-chain crisis is in sight but greed is getting in the way
https://news.yahoo.com/20-truck-driv...ycsrp_catchall

The huge trucking firms that have cannibalized and monopolized the industry HARD over the last couple decades is still raking it in and is unwilling to pay drivers worth a damn. Looking at you, Swift! Those guys are dicks.

[SumJongGuy]

Switching costs and pains as society transitions from human drivers to these... And it's definitely coming SOON!

[riser4]

I saw that movie and it didn't end well for the humans.

[old goat]

I'll believe self-driving trucks are close when they figure out how to deal with bad weather. It doesn't make sense to build a supply chain around self driving trucks until they can operate in all kinds of weather. Even then it will likely require human drivers from depot to freeway and from freeway to depot. It would still make sense for long hauls but then you have to figure out how to fuel them.
Meanwhile we have a cheaper alternative that requires minimal human intervention--trains. Probably we need to invest more in rail infrastructure. Maybe the fed govt needs to be laying track and charging the RR's to use it.

[altacoup]

https://youtu.be/W7jSsyQKIfE

Excellent summary from 60 minutes. Situation is totally fucked. And some companies are making obscene amounts of money screwing everyone.


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[jono]

Switching costs and pains as society transitions.from human drivers to these... And it's definitely coming SOON!

That pic is classic. World changing tomorrow. Definitely.