The Supply shitshow

[old goat]

Drop shipping should be a capital offense. Parasites.

The problem is--it doesn't require any capital. (Sorry, dad joke).

[LongShortLong]

So I got kicked out of the Unthreadworthy Questions Thread... Thread post supply shortage over there.

My question was about grocery shelves. As near as I can tell, we're still stocked like usual here, but I do pickup orders and don't go inside. Some of you said you were seeing empty shelves, and some were not. Carry on, or perhaps the topic is dead until the next perpetual premature prepper pandemic panic.

[abraham]

So I got kicked out of the Unthreadworthy Questions Thread... Thread post supply shortage over there.

My question was about grocery shelves. As near as I can tell, we're still stocked like usual here, but I do pickup orders and don't go inside. Some of you said you were seeing empty shelves, and some were not. Carry on, or perhaps the topic is dead until the next perpetual premature prepper pandemic panic.

I'm not paying a ton of attention but I've seen subtle things like one item on more than one shelf, or spread out with more units visible than usual. So it doesn't look like the shelf is empty but there isn't much stock behind the front row. And I have seen some surprising shelves bare, but again I'm not paying enough attention to know if that's a short term waiting for delivery issue or something bigger.


In electronics I'm still seeing surprising shortages. Some simple connectors that used to be commodity parts are hard to find for smaller orders like 1000 pieces. The usual distributors have none.

Ars posted this article yesterday https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2021...blems-pile-up/

“The shortages are going to continue indefinitely,” Brandon Kulik, head of Deloitte’s semiconductor industry practice, told Ars. “Maybe that doesn’t mean 10 years, but certainly we’re not talking about quarters. We’re talking about years.”

It is becoming clear that snarls in the semiconductor supply chain are weighing on economic growth. Yesterday, both GM and Ford said that missing chips led to slashed profits for the third quarter, and Apple is rumored to be cutting this year’s production targets for its iPhone lineup, the company’s cash cow. Chip woes have become so widespread that a division of Wells Fargo thinks the pressures will curtail US GDP growth by 0.7 percent.

I've heard from more than one source about some metal supply businesses saying they can't quote on fairly standard material because they don't have it, don't know when they'll get it, and don't know if they'll get a full size order when they do.

[ötzi]

Outboard motors are one example I know a little about, Yamaha has told a guy I know (he sells outboards as part of his business) that they expect it will take them six years to straighten out their product flow problems. Suzuki won't even make a guess as to how long it will take them or even if they'll ever get there. People are buying boats that don't have power in hopes that motors will magically show up, I think some of them are going to be waiting a very long time.

[shroom]

i’m glad i dont manage inventory anymore

imagine if the US gov actually implemented rationing in any way today?

i think the boomers on their 5th boat in 30 yrs would fare worse than the homeless millennials hoping for a room in a 100 y/o beater house

america loves the increased competition, we spend most of efforts creating that rather than solutions. this is wet dream capitalism

[old goat]

A large proportion of the world's chips are made in Taiwan. That is very scary.

[SumJongGuy]

Printer cartridges for the two HP machines we have seem to have gotten scarce. I don't print much these days but there is a high school senior in house that has to print out homework and permission forms..

[MakersTeleMark]

Printer cartridges for the two HP machines we have seem to have gotten scarce. I don't print much these days but there is a high school senior in house that has to print out homework and permission forms..

A laser jet over ink jet and knock offs from eBay work great if you don't need to print color. I think I've used 2 cartridges in 3 years. Best printer move I ever made.

[Truckee Joe]

All communist societies have to implement rationing, this is going to take a long time to fix.

I was at Home Depot this weekend they didn't have some simple 3/4 copper fittings I needed for a water heater project. Went to the other side of town to other Home Depot and the same thing there. At least they had them at Western but they were not open on Sunday so had to wait an extra day to get the hot water working.


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[ötzi]

Yeah, like that Chinese rationing I'm always hearing about.

[old goat]

All communist societies have to implement rationing, this is going to take a long time to fix.

I was at Home Depot this weekend they didn't have some simple 3/4 copper fittings I needed for a water heater project. Went to the other side of town to other Home Depot and the same thing there. At least they had them at Western but they were not open on Sunday so had to wait an extra day to get the hot water working.


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Why not Ferguson in Truckee, they're closed on weekends too but you can get a sandwich from Full Belly while you're there.

[neufox47]

All communist societies have to implement rationing, this is going to take a long time to fix.

I was at Home Depot this weekend they didn't have some simple 3/4 copper fittings I needed for a water heater project. Went to the other side of town to other Home Depot and the same thing there. At least they had them at Western but they were not open on Sunday so had to wait an extra day to get the hot water working.


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Yea because these companies are all government controlled. JFC do you snack on lead paint chips?

[SumJongGuy]

A laser jet over ink jet and knock offs from eBay work great if you don't need to print color. I think I've used 2 cartridges in 3 years. Best printer move I ever made.

Thanks, I've wondered about that option. Does the laser jet need special paper? I'm running refills but they definitely don't play nice with the printer. One won't recognize the 2nd newly refilled color cartridge so I'm already printing black only there. I'll try a laser jet before buying any more new cartridges for that one..

[Beaver]

I ue food coloring to refill my ink jet color cartridges. No noticeable difference from original.

[JohnF]

Yeah, like that Chinese rationing I'm always hearing about.

By definition, China is more fascist than communist.

[concretejungle]

The supply shitshow has highlighted how crappy the websites of many retailers are (and how others handle inventory better). I was looking for a printer recently, and of course they are in short supply. You can read reviews for all sorts of models, but good luck finding any of those models in stock. Anyhow, in searching at the usual suspects for office equipment -- Office Depot, Staples, Best Buy -- it is astonishing how bad their websites are at telling you what actually is in stock and available, either in store or to be shipped.

my experience is it isn’t the website, it’s the company doesn’t actually know what’s in stock. This can be a software issue, a process issue, a training issue, or usually all 3. It’s seems now some retailers aim at a deliberate miss on inventory transparency, perhaps to mute customer expectations (your website said you had 6 in stock. What do you mean you don’t have 6? “Sorry man, the stoned moron at the distribution center keyed the tag for 6 but we only got one, and I’m too undertrained to fix it”)

As someone who has worked in DC's both big and small I have some insight into inventory problems. It will always be blamed on the warehouse. Also, when goods arrive and the time it takes them to leave is grossly underestimated by everyone not in the warehouse.

At bigger DC's I could usually adjust inventory when I noticed the issue on my RF scanning gun or just backorder it and talk to someone who could fix it later. Usually I'd have to do a quick count of similar styles, sizes, etc. to see where the error occurred. The last place I worked the owner (micro-managing but generally a nice guy) was the only person who could do adjustments. I would bring him the adjustments (normally not large amounts) and he just wouldn't do them. Meanwhile anything we were low on was usually the stuff we sold the most of and they'd keep selling while he did nothing. They'd just sit there because he didn't want to do them for whatever reason. I can't even count the inventory issues that were created by our inventory management system or the sales reps.

[ötzi]

By definition, China is more fascist than communist.

The Sage of Syracuse weighs in.

[dunfree]

By definition, China is more fascist than communist.

uh, no.

edit: this clearly “smart” utterly wrong take that they are fascist not communist will be the downfall of the us. Seriously, read what they write and do.

[old goat]

By definition, China is more fascist than communist.

I agree. A highly nationalistic dictatorship that suppresses ethnic minorities (Uighurs, Tibetans), where the means of production are privately owned by coordinate closely with the govt to fulfill national objectives.
For it to be socialist the means of production--collective farms, factories--would be govt owned, and to be communist the govt would have to vanish and everything would be owned by the people collectively.

[Mazderati]

Outboard motors are one example I know a little about, Yamaha has told a guy I know (he sells outboards as part of his business) that they expect it will take them six years to straighten out their product flow problems. Suzuki won't even make a guess as to how long it will take them or even if they'll ever get there. People are buying boats that don't have power in hopes that motors will magically show up, I think some of them are going to be waiting a very long time.

From a recent Brunswick earnings call:

"It's important to note that all indications are that retail declines are being driven by product availability and are not a result of declining consumer demand. U.S. lead generation, dealer sentiment and other leading indicators all remain very positive. For example, all of our 2022 model year and 80% of our 2022 calendar year production slots are already sold out. And we continue to see a significant percentage of boats leaving our manufacturing facilities already retail sold."


Also saw a headline where they expect normality to return in 2023. Seems early to me.

[Buzzworthy]

Just posting for #420. It’s Saturday. I’m high.

[m2711c]

so close.

[Toadman]

Picked up a bag of Halloween candy today. Still plenty of selection this late in the game. Didn't scope out the TP aisle though.

[Hott Butt Mud]

A large proportion of the world's chips are made in Taiwan. That is very scary.

Oh for sure. Wait until China invades and scoops up all the chip production. Few are actually self-aware about just how much our society revolves on these friggin chips nowadays.

CEO of Cisco said a week or so ago that he expects the chip shortage problem to go on until Spring 2023. He said that it takes 2-3 years to build up production for these in the USA. It's just not easy to make them and takes a lot of expertise.

[liv2ski]

Picked up a bag of Halloween candy today. Still plenty of selection this late in the game. Didn't scope out the TP aisle though.

Good to know. We were going to skip the kids this year thinking the front yard was going to be demoed but it is mostly in (is safe) so I better get some candy. Costco was really low on TP yesterday, so don't delay getting some or you may be up shit creek without a paddle or a roll of paper