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Thread: The inflation thread
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05-09-2021, 06:00 PM #101
The summer of discontent.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news...id=mailsignout
How does a homeless person get a stimulus check?"We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch
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05-09-2021, 06:07 PM #102
$12/hr = $3/hr with child care, transportation and a red Bull. $20 net is quite an incentive.
I was working at HD Lumber @ $14/hr when the new CEO switched policy from a living starting wage to minimum wage for new hires. One afternoon the store manager comes over and tells me that the new kid won't be coming in for his 4 hour part time shift. I'll be solo. I say "You know, you can hire people for $7/hr but you can't make those people come to work for it. Do the math. $28 minus $4 for taxes, $8 for gas and $5 for the candy machine. He trades 7 hours of his day with his girl friend for $11."A few people feel the rain. Most people just get wet.
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05-09-2021, 06:22 PM #103
Same place he gets his SS check I'd guess. Then uses it to eat, feed his kids or buy a bottle. The inflation in the article seemed supply and demand issues cause by the way the pandemic screwed over the whole capitalist consumer world. Rather than too much spending money in circulation.
A few people feel the rain. Most people just get wet.
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05-09-2021, 06:29 PM #104I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.
"Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"
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05-09-2021, 06:57 PM #105
The inflation thread
It’s not just a class war, it’s a technology war. Computers have put more people out of work than anything else. Kept wages down. But productivity has risen.
It will only get worse, skills, or no skills.
Some arguement for Yangs basic income in the future, or we’re going to be living in some kind of sci fi world with that haves living in artificial worlds and the have nots living on the dumpster that is left of this planet.
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05-09-2021, 07:03 PM #106
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05-09-2021, 07:36 PM #107
it’s like going to war
what are you convincing the stupid people they are dying for? the median is dumb but not blind
there is no gold in the bozeman hills at $15-20/hr; you’re trying to get people to build their own ticket out of town with a smile
i managed specialty warehouse labor in the 35 most dense markets in the us/uk not long ago and there is nothing but turnover in the inflationary markets we’ve created. most those unfortunate kids paid for a degree too. fucked then fucked
all that’s left is to gamble on assets as the yo-yo goes up and down. there’s no work involved there
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05-09-2021, 08:58 PM #108
oooof Shroom, that was a depressing read. Life has never been easy is the fact of the matter. People are not here to help each other out for the most part. If you have found your way into a good career, count your blessings as there is another person that is fucked. Ya, and it never gets any easier. O and inflation? Look at lumber and the Pizza thread. $45 for a large veggie? Fuck me.
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05-10-2021, 06:40 AM #109
As long as some folks are willing to pay 45 bucks for a pizza, there will be 45 dollar Pizzas.
Re-title that thread, how much are you willing to pay for a Pizza and see the results.I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.
"Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"
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05-10-2021, 07:51 AM #110
^ Heh, research shows people form inflation expectations from their own personal grocery (or pizza) bundles, and do not include items they don't purchase:
We show that consumers rely on the prices changes of goods in their personal grocery bundles when forming expectations about aggregate inflation. Our analysis uses novel representative micro data that uniquely match individual expectations, detailed information about consumption bundles, and item-level prices. The data also reveal that the weights consumers assign to price changes depend on the frequency of purchase, rather than expenditure share, and that positive price changes loom larger than similar-sized negative price changes. Prices of goods offered in the same store but not purchased (any more) do not affect inflation expectations, nor do other dimensions such as the volatility of price changes.
The same appears to be true even for members of the Fed Open Market Committee with their own personal forecasts:
We present novel evidence showing that personal lifetime experiences significantly affect the inflation forecasts, voting behavior, tone of speeches, and federal funds target rate decisions of FOMC members. Our findings suggest that heterogeneous inflation experiences generate heterogeneity in the desired policies and the macroeconomic outlook of FOMC members. Personal experiences exert this influence even though FOMC members are highly educated individuals and receive extensive decision-support from professional staff.
https://eml.berkeley.edu/~ulrike/Papers/paper_DMOW.pdf
https://eml.berkeley.edu/~ulrike/Papers/FOMC_48.pdf
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05-10-2021, 08:30 AM #111Registered User
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Both steel and lumber temporarily shut down in March 2020 due to the 'rona and what they thought would be a depression moving forward. Dont mind that both industries were demmed essential.
A year later they underestimated supply, and now the consumer gets boned. I dont get it.
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05-10-2021, 08:32 AM #112
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05-10-2021, 08:36 AM #113
People react as human nature would predict. Who could have guessed?
A few people feel the rain. Most people just get wet.
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05-10-2021, 08:36 AM #114
Forecasting future demand for allocating future production funding is already hard, harder still during a pandemic. To most people “inflation” just means “the retail price of food or gasoline” so today we have this ransonware pipeline thing which will do more to form opinions than boring macroeconomics.
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05-10-2021, 08:40 AM #115
If you need new tires because you have a job and don't WFH, you might want to buy those tires sooner rather than later.
https://www.moderntiredealer.com/art...s-tire-dealers
With 67 stores in Missouri, Illinois, Arkansas and Kentucky, Plaza Tire Service Inc. is watching tire prices go up on both domestic and imported tires. President Mark Rhodes says prices on imports have risen 5% to 10% since the start of the year, while domestic-produced tire prices have gone up, or are in the process of going up this spring, by 6% to 8%.
Plaza Tire is passing along those increases to its retail customers, as well as its wholesale customers.
Stacked on top of that, Rhodes says, are freight surcharges on imports.
“Some of them doubled or tripled,” says Rhodes, noting he’s billed for surcharges ranging from $1,500 to $2,500 for a container load of tires since the beginning of the year. And even with those extra fees, shipments are taking longer to arrive due to backups in ports and heightened demand for containers.
Last year, containers arrived within 90 or 100 days, he says. In 2021, shipments are pushed out to 150 or 180 days. He expects those problems to linger."We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch
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05-10-2021, 09:26 AM #116
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05-11-2021, 06:07 PM #117
https://www.reuters.com/business/ark...source=twitter
Fears of inflation have weighed heavily on growth stocks since the start of the year and helped bolster value stocks, which tend to benefit from rising commodities and higher interest rates. The Russell 1000 Value index is up 16.3% for the year, while the Russell 1000 Growth is up 3.9% over the same time.
"The scramble is more today than what we've seen in any other cycle," Wood said, predicting that "we will have a very serious correction in commodity prices" once the global economy fully reopens.
Deflation, rather than inflation, will likely be the dominant theme in global markets in the years ahead due to technological innovation, Wood said. Yields for the benchmark 10-year Treasury will likely stay within a range between 1.5% and 3%, she said, while oil prices are unlikely to go above $70 per barrel.
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05-11-2021, 06:18 PM #118
Inflation, deflation--someone is bound to be right and claim they're a genius.
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05-11-2021, 07:31 PM #119
CPI data comes out tomorrow. Something to keep in mind is prices fell a lot last spring due to the pandemic. So in spite of whatever price increases show up in the data, the previous levels were roughly the same as they were for summer 2019.
In that sense the growth rate doesn't tell us much because we're still below trend. That doesn't mean inflation won't get out of hand in the future. But for now the overall price level remains below what it would have been had the pandemic not happened.
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05-12-2021, 10:15 AM #120Banned
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Annnd its ugly.
Like Jimmy Carter ugly.
MoM inflation at .8 or .9%
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/12/cons...pril-2021.html
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05-12-2021, 01:26 PM #121
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05-12-2021, 03:09 PM #122
Is it time to start hoarding gas? I better go buy some five gallon jerry cans and get 'em filled up!
"We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch
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05-12-2021, 03:15 PM #123Banned
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05-12-2021, 04:30 PM #124
Today's spike was driven primarily by used autos and secondarily by utilities. Gas prices actually helped in April.
Buddy from KY says they have every inch of available parking space full of trucks waiting on microchips. No idea if that's a real thing. Anyway, good times. Interesting to see how this all shakes out.
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05-12-2021, 06:30 PM #125Registered User
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Bought a truck camper today. The way this is going I'll get all my money back if I need to move it in a year or 2.
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