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Thread: The inflation thread
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11-10-2021, 12:17 PM #176
Hot seat: the cost of fucking milk
Decisions Decisions
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11-10-2021, 01:14 PM #177
I don't think most anybody is making 20-30% more, but they are certainly spending 20-30% less, maybe more, if they haven't bought a house or car. I mean, just the upper middle class TGR demo, which missed spending a ton last year on ski travel, or, just travel alone. That will settle back to a mean.
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11-10-2021, 05:59 PM #178
Spot on Benny. Huge blip in upper middle and up making bank and spending nil (supply) with a huge dip in stuff on the shelves = inflation. Rapids to gently navigate. Raising interest rates are bad for you and me. But good for capitalists. IMO.
A few people feel the rain. Most people just get wet.
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11-10-2021, 06:17 PM #179
I don't even think rates will really rise. Easy money isn't causing this, and hard money won't fix it. The capitalists and the Chinese Communist Party will work this out, because this is how money is made today. The whole problem for the capitalists would be to succumb to higher wages for the essential workers everyone was tying a yellow ribbon around just a year ago, because those wages will be sticky. Gotta keep the credit machine rolling. Can't let anybody die comfortably.
I'll take guaranteed 5% on my money, or at least half of it, full faith and backing. I don't need much. That's what I mean by demographics. The boomers were just starting to buy all sorts of shit in the 70s. Now we don't need anything, and half the Boomers have no money to spend, anyway. Old people don't buy shit. Same in Japan, Europe, and soon to come, China.
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11-10-2021, 06:32 PM #180
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11-10-2021, 07:10 PM #181
That's what the plastic brings.
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11-10-2021, 07:13 PM #182
What surprises me is that inflation or not people I know--not a poor demographic--keep doing remodels and buying big ticket items. We need to replace some rotted windows that won't close. We'll just keep bailing for now.
Meanwhile guy comes to the door, neat, fancy brochure, soliciting contracting work. I'm trying to shoo the guy off when my wife drives up and gets his info. I try to convince her that door to door contractors are scam artists and even if they weren't anyone who needs to be soliciting business right now you don't want to hire.
I had a half off code but anything on Smith I would have any interest in was unavailable. (My AF kid got the code because tactical. Before the AF sent him to the desert they gave him a nice Arcteryx jacket. And a whole bunch of other neat stuff--GPS, a little stove--all of which stayed here. Hope he doesn't go for a walk some night and get lost.)
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11-11-2021, 05:51 AM #183
All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone.
https://ritholtz.com/2021/11/time-peak-inflation/
Also: https://ritholtz.com/2021/11/productivity-wage-gains/
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11-11-2021, 06:59 AM #184
We’re number one!
Ugh. Guess I won’t be looking to upgrade the house anytime soon.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...7-9-price-hikeI still call it The Jake.
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11-11-2021, 07:05 AM #185Banned
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11-11-2021, 09:43 AM #186"We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch
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11-11-2021, 09:54 AM #187
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11-11-2021, 10:07 AM #188
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11-11-2021, 10:10 AM #189"We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch
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11-11-2021, 02:19 PM #190
+1
I also think a wholistic viewpoint takes into consideration that we did a ton of inflationary things from a monetary policy perspective. The fed pushed huge amounts of money into equities and bonds at the same time we were paying people more on unemployment than they made in their jobs.
I won't fault the little guy for following the incentive structure and staying on unemployment as long as was possible, just like I won't fault anyone who takes as much of a pay bump as they can at the moment.
I do think it is absolute bullshit that we keep bailing out shitty airlines and other poorly run companies.
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11-14-2021, 01:02 PM #191
This thread has comic relief.
Lol
How could we possibly have runaway inflation?. . .
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11-14-2021, 01:05 PM #192
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11-14-2021, 01:40 PM #193
Preach! Everyone seems to forget that we turned our economy off for an extended period of time in order to avoid a massive financial shitstorm. Well, we dodged that iceberg. Anyone who thinks there would not have been some consequences to that move is fucking delusional and this would have happened if it was Biden and the Ds or Trump and the Rs.
I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.
"Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"
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11-14-2021, 02:33 PM #194
Some of the wage inflation is being short a couple million workers cause the legal immigration spigot got turned off.
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11-14-2021, 02:40 PM #195
Yep. Saw a company go from 100% hourly immigrant workers to 100% citizens with double the pay and benefits. And raised it's prices to generate the same profit.
A few people feel the rain. Most people just get wet.
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11-14-2021, 02:56 PM #196
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11-14-2021, 04:00 PM #197Registered User
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NYT-
"More than 4.4 million workers quit their jobs voluntarily in September, the Labor Department said Friday. That was up from 4.3 million in August and was the most in the two decades the government has been keeping track. Nearly a million quit their jobs in the leisure and hospitality industry alone, reflecting the steep competition for workers there as businesses recover from last year’s pandemic-induced shutdowns."
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11-14-2021, 04:16 PM #198I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.
"Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"
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11-15-2021, 07:45 AM #199
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11-15-2021, 08:04 AM #200
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