Wildfire 2021

[Meadow Skipper]

Yes, but are we restoring the forests to 1930? Why? The data tells us we are headed for massive changes to ecosystems just based on temp. and precipitation changes.

For example: Does it even make sense to restore a low elevation pine forest or should we just log it and let it convert to brush?

Paradise is a great example of misplaced priorities I think. Sure, maybe the FS having done more land management upwind would have given them more time, but the fire probably could have started via any ignition source at the city limit and burned unchecked through the city because it appears there was very little effort put towards WUI common sense mitigation, no time to suppress and 50 mph winds.

Also see: Ashland last year, McKenzie River drainage, Santiam River Drainage, etc.


There needs to be a dramatic rethink about what we can actually do. “Restoring” the forests is going to take decades and decades and billions (trillions?) of dollars. Hell, we have been working on it for decades and decades. It’s like fighting the ocean at this point, the tide is coming in and we need to fall back and retrench until we can make meaningful changes on the landscape.

What IS happening is that big landscape management actions are occurring via huge fires burning under poor prescriptions resulting in fire behavior and effects we don’t like.

That was a downer to even write, but I am deeply pessimistic about our ability to change the landscape on the timescale required to mitigate the fires we are seeing and that even if we did modify the landscape as we wish that we would still see similar results.

I take comfort in understanding that the earth will outlive us.

[old goat]

Was Taylor OR really in the WUI? I have friends up there that live in the WUI and were fine.

Where in the suburbs does the WUI (interface, not intermix) end and the non-WUI suburbs begin?

Santa Rosa for one. (Tubbs fire).

[splat]

Janesville evac'd and Dixie fire headed for Susanville, where the AQI has been well over 300 for weeks.

[bodywhomper]

Santa Rosa for one. (Tubbs fire).

Yep. Embers, fire in landscaped tree crowns and landscape brush, wooden fences, lack of defensible space between suburban homes, etc. but that Kmart, surrounded by parking lot, burned down/melted.

San Bernardino (Old Fire), too: part of the university and adjacent subdivision.

I worked in Paradise before and after the fire. Living in the foothills myself and sometimes working in the world of wildfires, you could tell that they’d have a problem if a wildfire came through. Knowing a little bit about the local politics, there was no good solution based on government intervention. I’m still surprised by the random homes that seemed untouched (including their wooden fences and landscaped parcels). At least one of the cemeteries in town was untouched, but surrounded by devastation. The water treatment plant was also nearly untouched. It lost a few landscaped trees and the adjacent forested area. The employees stayed and defended the plant because they were unable to leave due to existing traffic bottlenecks.

[Meadow Skipper]

Janesville evac'd and Dixie fire headed for Susanville, where the AQI has been well over 300 for weeks.

Insane.

https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/08/10...preading-east/

[old goat]

calm winds today--not great for the air down here but I hope it helped the firefighters.
we might get some thundershowers this week--maybe good, maybe bad

[Meadow Skipper]

Logistics gone to shit.

https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/08/10...-as-the-fires/

Warnings sent out this week by the National Multi-Agency Coordinating Group at the National Interagency Fire Center advised wildland firefighters across the Western United States that logistics problems are developing in several areas, including supplying firefighters with communications, food, and water.
[…]
A memo sent by the MAC Group recognizes how inadequate communications will force personnel to conduct a risk assessment and mitigate the situation by choosing alternative strategies or tactics and assigning human repeaters.

Water and food

The MAC Group reported that during the first three days on a fire personnel should not count on being supplied with food or water. Yes, water.

“Due to the current national fire situation including ongoing high demand for caterers, shower units, and bottled water etc., [Incident Management Team] members and fire suppression resources should travel and arrive at the incident self-sufficient for three days, including food and water,” the August 9 memo from the MAC Group warned.

[splat]

Oh, that is some major suck.
Once again, the fukking paperwork for contracts on fires is so fukking out of control, people are just walking away. The eventual manifestation of these shortages is something I talked about here in the last year. PPPPPP.

[snapt]

We were told last season to be able to be self sufficient on food and water for no less than 3 days minimum.

[altasnob]

Interesting article on fire danger in NE, SE, and Midwest. 1 in 3 homes nationwide are now in the wildland urban interface.

https://apps.npr.org/us-wildfires-im...limate-change/

Map showing average years between fires, pre-European development (darker the red, shorter the time period between fires)

[old goat]

Logistics gone to shit.

https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/08/10...-as-the-fires/

Let them eat cake.

[Conundrum]

I feel somewhat bad posting this while people are losing homes...there is a new fire just west of the Boundary Creek Middle Fork Salmon boat ramp shutting down all launches there and requiring a fly in to Indian now. Boundary is a place near and dear to me.

https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/7795/

[gnarbro365]

From the Tamarack fire…


Schneider Springs billowing today…

[TBS]

We were told last season to be able to be self sufficient on food and water for no less than 3 days minimum.

So how do you supply yourselves? I have visions of 200 firefighters descending on some small town Safeway like locusts. I’ve seen the deli case cleaned out when like 25 firefighters show up at our little grocery, and that was just for something to hold them over till they got to camp.

And transport has to be an issue. Rent a box truck(s)?

[bodywhomper]

This one was walking distance from my house, maybe 15 minutes by bike: https://yubanet.com/regional-fires/purdon2108/

Engines were unable to access at first because of all the river lovers fleeing on the 1-1.5 lane road.

There have been a lot of starts in my area in the last few days.

[bodywhomper]

From the Tamarack fire…

Bummer. A friend of yours?

[Yonder_River]

From the Tamarack fire…


Schneider Springs billowing today…

Dang, saw that mushroom earlier today and was wondering what it was from.

[old_newguy]

So how do you supply yourselves? I have visions of 200 firefighters descending on some small town Safeway like locusts. I’ve seen the deli case cleaned out when like 25 firefighters show up at our little grocery, and that was just for something to hold them over till they got to camp.

And transport has to be an issue. Rent a box truck(s)?

Cases of MREs is the easy way. For eating, not the other end. Water in 5 gallon containers.

We would occasionally get paracargo resupply which was awesome because the jumpers would usually throw in steaks for the first night.

Local units often had standing contracts with local restaurants for bagged meals (sandwich, chips, fruit, cookies, etc). Just have someone from the office run it to the fire.

It’s really not that complicated to be self sufficient for 3 shifts. It’s just abnormal.

My understanding is that crews were running more Alaska self sufficient style last year with cooler, camp kitchen setups and a dedicated crew member to manage all of that. Hit the grocery with a preset meal plan list and fill the coolers.

MS can probably opine on how that all works in AK.

Local units have caches with cases and cases of MREs, water containers, etc. I think this is just NIFC telling emerging incidents that are setting up fire camps that they aren’t going to get their cushy catering, showers, toilets, etc on the usual timeline.

Honestly fire camp was always a gigantic pain in the ass compared to doing it yourself. Nothing like standing in line behind 100 other people for cafeteria food instead of eating a nice meal in a picturesque spot with no commute to camp.

[telehacker]

Everyone thought 2020 was rough. Then 2021 can around and said HOLD MY BEER. Everyone going on assignment needs 72 hrs of water and food. Normal ops is 48 hrs if you do IA. Please don't forget the yurt folks who don't fight fires, they put out our paper fires. And we need them to.... This year is mind bending. Great basin got rain but many are still hiding their resources,,,,Because maybe it just might happen on the home front. My time in Montana as team divs was wild. My chunk of dirt went from river to ridge for about 2800 to 3000 vert. Had 0 crews and 9 folks but i was the youngest as the Divs and 45 old. I am scared for the folks in Cali, ORegon and Wash. SLow down and think about what you are asking your people to do. LOTS of the folks have never seen fire behavior like this, let alone set good trigger times to evac homes, slow equipment, fire fighters and curious non producers (CNPs).

Things have changed in the fire world. But I don't think the rest of the world (CNPs) has realized.

Fuel loading, fire season length, record breaking heat, lack of moisture, seasonal work force is going back to school this week in idaho, and I can keep typing.

Pray for snow my friends

[Iowagriz]

Southern Montana fire. Pic is from @BLMFire instagram account. 87000 acres in a day. Yes, that area is a lot of grassland, but still treed forest in spots.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[old goat]

Meanwhile Siberia's fires are bigger than all the rest of the fires in the world.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...ussia-climate/

[old_newguy]

@telehacker

I’m probably a little biased about the ease of self supporting logistics having spent my career on crews where that was our bread and butter.

Hadn’t thought about the militia or office type staff.

I don’t know, 3 days MRE for an engine crew is like 3 cases? Doesn’t seem like the end of the world unless their is a shortage. Water seems like a challenge as carting around that much water on a truck is a PIA.

Good luck.

[splat]

I've got a bad feeling about the Hollywood hills this year. A fire going through Laurel canyon would make the Oakland hills fire look like a picnic.

Having lived in Topanga and Laurel Canyons, that thought is pretty fucking horrifying.

[gnarbro365]

Bummer. A friend of yours?

Few blocks away from a friend’s. Closed on the house two days before the evac. Props to the crews that saved Markleeville and all the others that work their asses off doing the same all season long.

[donutlynx]

Potential serial arsonist around the Dixie Fire. Nice job by investigators and LE.

https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/08/11...he-dixie-fire/

Edit: I see this is old news. Good!