San Juans - the Nose

[Name Redacted]

Snow pack doesn't kill people. Peoples decisions are at the root of the problem.

And those decisions have far less margin for error in the Continental snowpack found around Colorado for entire seasons. Not taking anything away from the danger of avalanches in other areas, it just gets really old here in CO when most seasons have some kind of shitty snowpack and you lose many friends because of it.

[adrenalated]

And those decisions have far less margin for error in the Continental snowpack found around Colorado for entire seasons. Not taking anything away from the danger of avalanches in other areas, it just gets really old here in CO when most seasons have some kind of shitty snowpack and you lose many friends because of it.

The statistics agree with this. Since 1950, Colorado has more avalanche fatalities than the next two states COMBINED.



You can get away with bad decisions more regularly if your snowpack is generally more stable.

[PowTron]

Personally, I have stopped skiing anything consequential in the backcountry mid-winter. There is plenty of good skiing to be had within ski area boundaries that doesn't carry significant risk of leaving my 4 kids without a father. All of the waist deep powder on earth isn't worth that.

Exactly the train of thought I have adopted the last 4 years and will continue to have moving forward.

Continued thoughts of those lost <3

[Bunion 2020]

The statistics agree with this. Since 1950, Colorado has more avalanche fatalities than the next two states COMBINED.

You can get away with bad decisions more regularly if your snowpack is generally more stable.

Continuing down the road that this discussion is trending will only lead to MMQBing and bad shit may be said at a difficult time for people who are hurting.

Hoping to "get away" with bad decisions is a symptom of flaws in the decision making process.

RE: that graph, Colorado also has the largest population of all those States and some of the easiest access to consequential avalanche terrain as well as a much longer history of people and avalanches interacting.

I would also add that it would seem that most folks who reside and recreate in CO know that you guys can have a tricky Continental snow pack and they still keep trying to apply their hopes and goals to that snow pack rather than making adjustments in their behavior.

Anyway, shitty deal all the way around.

[powdork]

The graph means absolute zilch unless just backcountry rec and it's per days skied.

[adrenalated]

Continuing down the road that this discussion is trending will only lead to MMQBing and bad shit may be said at a difficult time for people who are hurting.

Hoping to "get away" with bad decisions is a symptom of flaws in the decision making process.

RE: that graph, Colorado also has the largest population of all those States and some of the easiest access to consequential avalanche terrain as well as a much longer history of people and avalanches interacting.

I would also add that it would seem that most folks who reside and recreate in CO know that you guys can have a tricky Continental snow pack and they still keep trying to apply their hopes and goals to that snow pack rather than making adjustments in their behavior.

Anyway, shitty deal all the way around.

Agreed with all of this.

[bodywhomper]

“We” used to try to follow a rule where the general chat room was for grieving an incident and there would be a thread about the incident in the slide room for discussing/analyzing, respectfully.

Saw there’s another’s avi and missing person in east vail. Mentioning here because it may affect same community.

[Bunion 2020]

RE E Vail, Awwww fuck.

So fucking sad to hear.

[cloud cult]

The statistics agree with this. Since 1950, Colorado has more avalanche fatalities than the next two states COMBINED.



You can get away with bad decisions more regularly if your snowpack is generally more stable.

I googled North Dakota avalanche death but could only find a North Dakotan who died in Montana.

[ridinshockgun]

that graph, Colorado also has the largest population of all those States and some of the easiest access to consequential avalanche terrain

This is incorrect, at least the first part for WA and CA.

[powdork]

confirmed death in east vail

[Meadow Skipper]

“We” used to try to follow a rule where the general chat room was for grieving an incident and there would be a thread about the incident in the slide room for discussing/analyzing, respectfully.

Saw there’s another’s avi and missing person in east vail. Mentioning here because it may affect same community.

Okay, I’m going to the general forum to post about a 2/3/21 death in NorCal.

[Kinnikinnick]

As people note the tragic similarity with deep burial in terrain trap deep burial sheep creek, it makes me think that another similarity is the group size. 7 here, 6 at Sheep.




Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[I've seen black diamonds!]

Fuck.

Given the state of the snowpack, AND the conditions that we're currently living under (the stress, isolation, uncertainty, restrictions, unemployment, political insanity/hatred, etc.) we should consider that most of us are at an increased risk of dying in an avalanche this year.

Everything is harder right now. It's harder to get work done. Harder to be a husband and a father. Harder to be empathetic to people you disagree with. Harder to stay sober. Harder to give a fuck some days. I strongly suspect that we collectively have a diminished capacity to make good decisions, including decisions about where to ski and where not to ski.

It's easy (and tempting) to read these reports and think "I wouldn't make that mistake." But if I ask myself, "When have I let my guard down in avy terrain and gotten away with it" I have no trouble thinking of examples. Same if I ask, "when have my partners pointed out important details (snowpack, weather, terrain) that I overlooked?"

We are intermittently rational creatures with incomplete understandings of what drives our behavior. We are all capable of unwittingly acting against our best interests and better judgement. Especially now. Take it easy out there.

[Name Redacted]

As people note the tragic similarity with deep burial in terrain trap deep burial sheep creek, it makes me think that another similarity is the group size. 7 here, 6 at Sheep.

Not for sure, but I think this one also had at least one guide in the group, as did the Sheep Creek accident.

[I've seen black diamonds!]

As people note the tragic similarity with deep burial in terrain trap deep burial sheep creek, it makes me think that another similarity is the group size. 7 here, 6 at Sheep.

In both cases the terrain trap was (at least partially) avoidable. In the Sheep Creek case, they could have crossed the creek. In the recent accident, they could have turned left and skinned back to the ridge (and toward the hut) instead of turning right under the larger, steeper face.

[PowTron]

Fuck.

Given the state of the snowpack, AND the conditions that we're currently living under (the stress, isolation, uncertainty, restrictions, unemployment, political insanity/hatred, etc.) we should consider that most of us are at an increased risk of dying in an avalanche this year.

Everything is harder right now. It's harder to get work done. Harder to be a husband and a father. Harder to be empathetic to people you disagree with. Harder to stay sober. Harder to give a fuck some days. I strongly suspect that we collectively have a diminished capacity to make good decisions, including decisions about where to ski and where not to ski.

It's easy (and tempting) to read these reports and think "I wouldn't make that mistake." But if I ask myself, "When have I let my guard down in avy terrain and gotten away with it" I have no trouble thinking of examples. Same if I ask, "when have my partners pointed out important details (snowpack, weather, terrain) that I overlooked?"

We are intermittently rational creatures with incomplete understandings of what drives our behavior. We are all capable of unwittingly acting against our best interests and better judgement. Especially now. Take it easy out there.

Extremely well stated.

[beaterdit]

In both cases the terrain trap was (at least partially) avoidable. In the Sheep Creek case, they could have crossed the creek. In the recent accident, they could have turned left and skinned back to the ridge (and toward the hut) instead of turning right under the larger, steeper face.

Seems like if they stayed high they could have traversed without even skinning up onto the adjacent south face the road and hut are on. But I wasn't there. Don't know what their thinking was but there are obviously all kinds of dynamics at play there.

Feeling for the partners and survivors and all those that knew the deceased.

A very close friend spent a harrowing three days on this recovery. On top of the other two in December. These aren't' her first but they add up and she's been profoundly affected by these two events.

[Bunion 2020]

Some excellent observations.

I think when the report is out a lot of people will say how could the group have done XXXX.

And if they are honest with themselves they will say, "fuck that could have been me".

[stalefish3169]

Brutal. +++Vibes+++ to all affected.

[adrenalated]

Excellent posts from a bunch of you, ISBD and Bunion especially.

You can't learn anything from avalanche accidents if you don't put yourself in the victim's shoes and have some serious self-reflection about what could cause you to make the same mistakes.

A couple things to add:
-I've noticed that underestimating the potential for remote triggers from below or adjacent slopes is a common mistake for experienced parties, which is understandable, because remote triggers are really tough to predict how far away or how easily you can trigger something
-experienced parties also often underestimate the true spacing and distance needed to really move one at a time from island of safety to island of safety. I've made this mistake many times when I reflect on it. We have no idea what exactly this group was doing at the time of the accident and whether this was a factor, but it definitely was at Sheep Creek
-think about some of the human factors that could have been in play here: all the COVID stuff ISBD mentions, large group, pre-planned trip (I assume, since it was a hut trip), terrain that you stare at when having coffee each morning, etc.

RIP to all the skiers and vibes to the friends, families, survivors, and rescuers. It's been a tough week

[homemadesalsa]

Fuck.

Given the state of the snowpack, AND the conditions that we're currently living under (the stress, isolation, uncertainty, restrictions, unemployment, political insanity/hatred, etc.) we should consider that most of us are at an increased risk of dying in an avalanche this year.

Everything is harder right now. It's harder to get work done. Harder to be a husband and a father. Harder to be empathetic to people you disagree with. Harder to stay sober. Harder to give a fuck some days. I strongly suspect that we collectively have a diminished capacity to make good decisions, including decisions about where to ski and where not to ski.

It's easy (and tempting) to read these reports and think "I wouldn't make that mistake." But if I ask myself, "When have I let my guard down in avy terrain and gotten away with it" I have no trouble thinking of examples. Same if I ask, "when have my partners pointed out important details (snowpack, weather, terrain) that I overlooked?"

We are intermittently rational creatures with incomplete understandings of what drives our behavior. We are all capable of unwittingly acting against our best interests and better judgement. Especially now. Take it easy out there.

This is one of the best pieces of writing that I have seen on TGR. Thanks for your empathy. Case studies can pull out the most righteous among us. But seeing yourself making those calls in those spots takes a big heart and a huge dose of self-knowledge and human nature.

[glademaster]

And if they are honest with themselves they will say, "fuck that could have been me".

This. We all get away with far more than we will ever know. We should all (I know I do, and have been for decades) be asking ourselves before EVERY ski day, "am I comfortable with the potential of not coming home today?" That's the reality of the endeavor.

RIP and sincere condolences to all.

[snowaddict91]

This. We all get away with far more than we will ever know. We should all (I know I do, and have been for decades) be asking ourselves before EVERY ski day, "am I comfortable with the potential of not coming home today?" That's the reality of the endeavor.

RIP and sincere condolences to all.

Yup. I used to always play "this is where they fucked up, won't happen to me." But lately I've really tried to look and think "how could I have made this decision and got into this same situation?"

[Lurch]

Personally, I have stopped skiing anything consequential in the backcountry mid-winter. There is plenty of good skiing to be had within ski area boundaries that doesn't carry significant risk of leaving my 4 kids without a father. All of the waist deep powder on earth isn't worth that.

Colorado still has one of the best spring "peak bagging" seasons anywhere.

Sincere condolences to the friends and family of the victims.

Yep, I have been to two friend's funerals with young crying children that just lost their fathers. Its not worth it. Neither were from avalanches but it made me question the risks I was taking of my kids winding up with the same outcome.