2 fatalities north of Silverton - Battleship

[Bunion 2020]

[goldenboy]

Expert halo?

I know you're very familiar with the concept. Seems like there's a new strain of it rearing its head these days. A literal lifetime of good decisions causing confirmation bias, leading to questionable decisions. Conversely, a lifetime of getting lucky for sure causes the same. For most of us, it's some mixture of the two. Then there's just plain bad luck. To me the trick seems to be to approach every day as a scared amatuer. Forget the nuance of what you think you can get away with and get back to the basics. Look for reasons to not go instead of reasons to go. Then build the possibility of being 'unlucky' into your decision making process. Ski for the worst case scenario. None of this is new, just seems like many don't ski this way. Unfortunately it takes a lot off the table.

Well said. And my observation was just that- an observation. I wasn't trying to troll if Maker's comments were directed at me. It's just that all we've been hearing for months is that the bc would be flooded with dangerous newbie's fleeing Covid, but it's the expert halo that we're seeing instead. Good comments from Foggy as well. I'm trying this year to add in the post-tour "What did we do right/wrong?" recap, hopefully that might occasionally catch the days with bad decisions but good luck and lead to smarter future decisions.

[snowaddict91]

I'm trying this year to add in the post-tour "What did we do right/wrong?" recap, hopefully that might occasionally catch the days with bad decisions but good luck and lead to smarter future decisions.

That's a great idea. I've also been reflecting on the "did we do everything right" vs. "did we get lucky" scenarios lately and trying to look at it as objectively as possible.

[beaterdit]

........... I'm trying this year to add in the post-tour "What did we do right/wrong?" recap, hopefully that might occasionally catch the days with bad decisions but good luck and lead to smarter future decisions.

This is a very good practice. We do this for critical incidents, especially where lives are lost. We should be doing it for every instance where lives are on the line, regardless of the outcome.

[Tech Tonics]

You're not wrong.



Expert halo?

We're all very familiar with the concept. Seems like there's a new strain of it rearing its head these days. A literal lifetime of good decisions causing confirmation bias, leading to questionable decisions. Conversely, a lifetime of getting lucky for sure causes the same. For most of us, it's some mixture of the two. Then there's just plain bad luck. To me the trick seems to be to approach every day as a scared amatuer. Forget the nuance of what you think you can get away with and get back to the basics. Look for reasons to not go instead of reasons to go. Then build the possibility of being 'unlucky' into your decision making process. Ski for the worst case scenario. None of this is new, just seems like many don't ski this way. Unfortunately it takes a lot off the table.

Well said, Sam. Expert Halo was the first thing that came to my mind too. Almost like two-experts confirming each other’s confidence? No one knows.

In this case, from the comfort of my kitchen table, it doesn’t seem like “bad luck”. As much as I hate to judge, and armchair-quarterbacking isn’t usually helpful; in this case, this accident was avoidable.

There have widespread avalanches reported. You can scan ridge lines and see crowns. On that day there were huge plumes rolling off the peaks, tons of wind loading going on. I had toured the day before nearby (flat terrain) and felt whumpfing and fracture propagation. CAIC was saying “considerable” and specifically mentioned north facing slopes. All of the signs were there.

Terrain choice was so poor here. I personally know 3 people who have had close calls on the same slide path (one full burial). It’s a big scary path that runs. Everyone knows it runs. I can’t understand why Jeff decided to ski there. Dude, his twins are just a week or two old.

It’s fucking heartbreaking.

[adrenalated]

I'm trying this year to add in the post-tour "What did we do right/wrong?" recap, hopefully that might occasionally catch the days with bad decisions but good luck and lead to smarter future decisions.

I've gotten in the habit of doing this with most of my partners on most of my days. It's become a part of the post-ski trailhead beer routine and it's super valuable.
I will say, though, that we could probably be more explicit about it, it's generally a pretty casual conversation.

[yeahman]

^^Brutal and so sad. I've seen a few instances of skiers and climbers with newborns, or kids on the way, who made bad, almost inexplicable decisions and lost their life...and I've wondered if maybe the weight of responsibility and child rearing led them to make poor decisions impulsively, i.e. one last hurrah kind of thing. I can think of two skiers, a climber, and a wing suit flyer, who all died when they had newborns or an expecting partner, and left everybody shaking their heads at the decision making. Anyway, no judgment intended, it's just something I've wondered about. I hope his wife can find a good guy to help raise those kids.

[ASmileyFace]

Well said, Sam. Expert Halo was the first thing that came to my mind too. Almost like two-experts confirming each other’s confidence? No one knows.

In this case, from the comfort of my kitchen table, it doesn’t seem like “bad luck”. As much as I hate to judge, and armchair-quarterbacking isn’t usually helpful; in this case, this accident was avoidable.

There have widespread avalanches reported. You can scan ridge lines and see crowns. On that day there were huge plumes rolling off the peaks, tons of wind loading going on. I had toured the day before nearby (flat terrain) and felt whumpfing and fracture propagation. CAIC was saying “considerable” and specifically mentioned north facing slopes. All of the signs were there.

Terrain choice was so poor here. I personally know 3 people who have had close calls on the same slide path (one full burial). It’s a big scary path that runs. Everyone knows it runs. I can’t understand why Jeff decided to ski there. Dude, his twins are just a week or two old.

It’s fucking heartbreaking.

From the chairlift at purg to the shop I work at damn near every conversation I've had about this accident has gone exactly like you mentioned. I wish I could understand why they even considered Battleship on a day like Saturday. Every single person I've talked to, who was out Friday/Saturday/Sunday, was spooked by the snow pack. The signs of instability were everywhere and obvious. I bailed on BC plans the past two days because I'm shook and heartbroken. I just cannot understand. I'm just sick and tired of watching this community lose good people to the mountains in preventable accidents.

[Jax]

Live To Ski

[kootenayskier]

^^Brutal and so sad. I've seen a few instances of skiers and climbers with newborns, or kids on the way, who made bad, almost inexplicable decisions and lost their life...and I've wondered if maybe the weight of responsibility and child rearing led them to make poor decisions impulsively, i.e. one last hurrah kind of thing. I can think of two skiers, a climber, and a wing suit flyer, who all died when they had newborns or an expecting partner, and left everybody shaking their heads at the decision making. Anyway, no judgment intended, it's just something I've wondered about. I hope his wife can find a good guy to help raise those kids.

I can also think of a handful of incidents in my part of the World where expectant or new fathers died unnecessarily. Having serious shit going on in your mind (positive or negative) isn’t conducive to good decision making in the mountains. Some of the closest calls I’ve had we’re in the couple of years directly following an emotionally charged divorce. These are the times when we need to step up and support our friends.

[MakersTeleMark]

I don't disagree with any of that but I'm not sure what makes PowderHorse an idiot or what makes it not OK to be sorry?

Because he prescribed to the San Juan brutality. It has nothing to do with the range. Snow is snow you know? It's not brutal, it's science, and it applies equally.

[Danno]

Because he prescribed to the San Juan brutality. It has nothing to do with the range. Snow is snow you know? It's not brutal, it's science, and it applies equally.

Jesus, you're really the idiot here. Snow is snow, sure, but the San Juans are known to often have the worst snowpack in the state. It's a simple line that wasn't intend to convey some massive important thought, and everyone understood but you. That doesn't make her an idiot just because you want to be confrontational and do what? Show everyone how smart you are because snow is snow? FFS, man, show a little restraint.

[snowaddict91]

Jesus, you're really the idiot here. Snow is snow, sure, but the San Juans are known to often have the worst snowpack in the state. It's a simple line that wasn't intend to convey some massive important thought, and everyone understood but you. That doesn't make her an idiot just because you want to be confrontational and do what? Show everyone how smart you are because snow is snow? FFS, man, show a little restraint.

Yeah, um her post was not wrong, the San Juans are brutal. One of the most dangerous snowpacks in the world.

[cravenmorhead]

Regarding the tailgate debrief, it's something I've started to put into practice as well. And if we forget to do it over tailgate beers, I'll send a monday morning email along the lines of "what did we do right, what did we do wrong, did we get it right or get lucky?"

[homemadesalsa]

Regarding the tailgate debrief, it's something I've started to put into practice as well. And if we forget to do it over tailgate beers, I'll send a monday morning email along the lines of "what did we do right, what did we do wrong, did we get it right or get lucky?"

Not to derail this thread as it's a serious topic. I know about Battleship from an old story by Jerry Roberts when CDOT bombed it from a helicopter and it went big and dusted the observers on the road. Tigers on the Road: in 22.4 https://www.americanavalancheassocia...g/tar-archives

But it makes me happy to hear that folks are diving deeper in post-day debriefing. I've gone from the "did we make good decisions or get lucky?" to an easier-to-quantify "where we most exposed and how did we manage it?"

[skifishbum]

You're not wrong.



Expert halo?

We're all very familiar with the concept. Seems like there's a new strain of it rearing its head these days. A literal lifetime of good decisions causing confirmation bias, leading to questionable decisions. Conversely, a lifetime of getting lucky for sure causes the same. For most of us, it's some mixture of the two. Then there's just plain bad luck. To me the trick seems to be to approach every day as a scared amatuer. Forget the nuance of what you think you can get away with and get back to the basics. Look for reasons to not go instead of reasons to go. Then build the possibility of being 'unlucky' into your decision making process. Ski for the worst case scenario. None of this is new, just seems like many don't ski this way. Unfortunately it takes a lot off the table.

spot on solid and
vibes and condolances to those involved

[Foggy_Goggles]

Regarding the tailgate debrief, it's something I've started to put into practice as well. And if we forget to do it over tailgate beers, I'll send a monday morning email along the lines of "what did we do right, what did we do wrong, did we get it right or get lucky?"

An IFMGA friend of mine likes "when were we most at risk today". Risk is a function of consequence so it forces you to focus on what is most important.

[summit]

This is horrible. This hits a bit close to home, friend of a friend, though I hadn't met them.

That is a big consequential zone. I've skied in it.

Condolences

[Hacksaw]

Perceptual Blindness is one human factor trap, I really believe in. Here is a good definition of it.

“Perceptual Blindness, in which even smart people, (are) sure that they are paying attention and miss what is right in front of them.” Air & Space Magazine January 2017 “Apollo’s Worst Day” (about the Apollo 1 launchpad fire accident).

The Loveland Pass Sheep Creek 2014 avalanche accident and this Battleship accident are two examples Of "perceptual blindness" I think.

[SKIP IN7RO]

^Same idea.

[Foggy_Goggles]

^^^I think those two points speak to a culture in backcountry skiing that exacerbates the challenge. We speak to making decisions within our touring party and don't generally have the expectation that critique from the outside is forthcoming. It's part of the freedom that we all love about it.

We talk about the "tail gate debreif" but we don't talk about honestly exposing ourselves to the community for critique. We even go as far as to suggest like minded touring partners. It just creates an echo chamber of group think.

[summit]

I always say:

The is no power in the universe greater than that of the human mind to convince itself that what it wants to just happens to be the right thing to do.

[beaterdit]

This is horrible. This hits a bit close to home, friend of a friend, though I hadn't met them.

That is a big consequential zone. I've skied in it.

Condolences

Friends of friends for me too. This just sucks.

^^^I think those two points speak to a culture in backcountry skiing that exacerbates the challenge. We speak to making decisions within our touring party and don't generally have the expectation that critique from the outside is forthcoming. It's part of the freedom that we all love about it.

We talk about the "tail gate debreif" but we don't talk about honestly exposing ourselves to the community for critique. We even go as far as to suggest like minded touring partners. It just creates an echo chamber of group think.

I'm sure we're all guilty here, I know I am. As stated many times above, our ability to fool ourselves is nearly boundless.

Maybe a good question to ask in the tailgate debrief would be "What would others say about our decisions?", or even "What would others say about our decisions if this had gone sideways?". Yikes.

[simple]

Yuck. Fuck "others" I only want to know what my peers would think. Others might as well be my parents or some random Karen.

[muted]

Yuck. Fuck "others" I only want to know what my peers would think. Others might as well be my parents or some random Karen.

If I left my wife with two newborns, she would want me back from the dead so she could murder me for leaving her like that.