2021 Supply

[Greenstateofmind]

Forecasting anything right now is a pretty worthless endeavor.... because no one even knows what's going to happen next month with this damn pandemic.

Within the last two weeks, I heard from one shop that things are looking up. Another shop shrugged and said maybe 2025 for a frame only? Those are the extremes, I've also heard everything in between

[Ktow01]

I ordered a yeti sb130 Tlr T2 build with the X01 drivetrain almost a year ago. Just heard from the bike shop this week that there is still no eta on that bike, but they are offering me a sb130 T1 kit with shimano XT that will ship from yeti within a week. The shop is willing to put a fox factory 160mm fork off of a demo bike that has <10 hours on it. At this point I’ll take it. New bike day for me in the near future, finally.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[gravitylover]

I'm taking 2023 orders now for one of the companies I rep and another has cut the potential number of sku's to order for 2022 in half. Can you imagine paying over $30k for a container of bike racks from Taiwan to the US? Yeah that's what it costs now

[Falcon3]

I should buy a (shipping) boat…..

[Canada1]

I'm taking 2023 orders now for one of the companies I rep and another has cut the potential number of sku's to order for 2022 in half. Can you imagine paying over $30k for a container of bike racks from Taiwan to the US? Yeah that's what it costs now

It’ Almost like it might be cost effective to build things in America again?

[XXX-er]

I was just thinking that ^^

except all the expertise is now in SE asia

[Dantheman]

Commencal just announced a revamped kids bike lineup, big press release on Pinkbike. Estimated availability 3rd quarter 2022.

[gravitylover]

40 foot container of bike racks from Taiwan is now over $42k. BOOM

So about bringing that production capacity back here - There are apparently a lot of auto parts manufacturers that are about to have no purpose as e-cars take over and many of those are metal fabrication facilities. It seems to me that we are about to have excess capacity rather than no opportunities and that an enterprising person that knows something about these industries could broker some deals to help small companies transition to making consumer products.

It turns out that if you want to build bikes now you can spec them with lower end components and less popular parts names and have decent availability. I picked up a low price e-bike company last week and they currently have thousands of bikes in stock, just had containers land that are (slowly) making their way to the warehouse and have another round of bikes in production now for packing and shipping before the end of November for early spring arrival. Plenty of parts, batteries, computer chips, etc. because none of the parts are fancy schmancy latest and greatest.

[smmokan]

40 foot container of bike racks from Taiwan is now over $42k. BOOM

Heard a similar quote from another bike company last week... a container full of frames used to be $2500, now it's $25k. Out of curiosity, anyone know how many frames fit into a shipping container?

[toast2266]

Heard a similar quote from another bike company last week... a container full of frames used to be $2500, now it's $25k. Out of curiosity, anyone know how many frames fit into a shipping container?

I did the math, because it's rainy and I'm bored.

Standard 40' shipping container would fit about 400 standard sized frame boxes (42" x 24" x 10"). Now, obviously there'd be a way to package those frames more tightly if you didn't put them in frame boxes, so I'd bet you could get 700-ish frames in there. Maybe more.

So assuming 700 frames, that's about $36 / frame (at $25k for a shipping container) vs. $3.60 / frame at prior rates.

[SumJongGuy]

Today I decided to start adding more chicken breasts back in to the dinner at home menu. NY Strip and Ribeyes are getting too expensive to eat every night..

[XXX-er]

I did the math, because it's rainy and I'm bored.

Standard 40' shipping container would fit about 400 standard sized frame boxes (42" x 24" x 10"). Now, obviously there'd be a way to package those frames more tightly if you didn't put them in frame boxes, so I'd bet you could get 700-ish frames in there. Maybe more.

So assuming 700 frames, that's about $36 / frame (at $25k for a shipping container) vs. $3.60 / frame at prior rates.

then you could sell all them ^^ damaged bikes at a big discount

I seen a 1/2 hr santa cruz vid where the ceo was saying they couldnt get stuff and the first thing he mentioned was boxes to put the bikes in due to shortages of cardboard

[alpinevibes]

Bump - the fun continues.

My buddie's Spur, ordered March 2020: has had it's ETA pushed out for the 5th time, from November 2021 most recently to a March 2022 ETA.

[Beaver]

Holeeee fuck, I just looked up some Maxxis Minion 27.5x3.8 tires on HLC. The expected ETA on them is October 2023.

[smmokan]

Every time I see this thread bumped up to the top of the Bike Forum, I'm afraid to click on it.

[SKIP IN7RO]

Holeeee fuck, I just looked up some Maxxis Minion 27.5x3.8 tires on HLC. The expected ETA on them is October 2023.

https://www.amazon.com/Maxxis-Minion.../dp/B01M7T3HR6

[Sandbox]

Every time I see this thread bumped up to the top of the Bike Forum, I'm afraid to click on it.

Haha I have the same feeling. There is a small part of me that hopes it’s something “ I found all of these parts in stock at X” but I know…. That’s probably not reality


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[Eluder]

I did the math, because it's rainy and I'm bored.

Standard 40' shipping container would fit about 400 standard sized frame boxes (42" x 24" x 10"). Now, obviously there'd be a way to package those frames more tightly if you didn't put them in frame boxes, so I'd bet you could get 700-ish frames in there. Maybe more.

So assuming 700 frames, that's about $36 / frame (at $25k for a shipping container) vs. $3.60 / frame at prior rates.

I can tell you your numbers are off.. 36 isn’t too far off but 3.60 never happens.

[toast2266]

I’m can tell you your numbers are off..

I can't imagine how. My methodology is air tight.


(But what's the actual answer?)

[XXX-er]

are you vaxed or did you do research on that too ?

[toast2266]

are you vaxed or did you do research on that too ?

As soon as I need to inject myself with a shipping container, I'll take my research a little more seriously.

[stuckathuntermtn]

https://www.amazon.com/Maxxis-Minion.../dp/B01M7T3HR6

Dual compound? Madness.


Is Sun Race getting any 11 speed cassettes in? Thinking about xmas presents for the lady. She needs a wider range cassette and I'm pretty sure she just has an 11-42. And those Shimanos have weird gear steps. Unless she still has her 30t ring somewhere. Then I guess I can find one of those 11-50 or 51s. Those seem to be around. Will Sram stuff work with that?

[gravitylover]

Try looking for S Ride, SunRace is spotty availability at most distributors right now.

[XtrPickels]

I'm taking 2023 orders now for one of the companies I rep and another has cut the potential number of sku's to order for 2022 in half. Can you imagine paying over $30k for a container of bike racks from Taiwan to the US? Yeah that's what it costs now

I'll confirm from the manufacturer's side that shipping has increased a tremendous amount.

[XtrPickels]

I should buy a (shipping) boat…..

Bottlenecks everywhere:
1. Shipping ports are backed up...
2. There are no chassis to put the containers on once offloaded...
3. There are no drivers to move the chassis...