2021 Supply

[t.odd]

I was thinking about the OEM vs aftermarket issue especially on parts, not sure what the breakdown looks like, but if everything is going to OEM new bikes, and replacement parts supply gets axed, not having people able to replace parts to stay riding becomes a big issue for the industry very quickly...but then again, they probably give very few fucks about that when they just want to move new bikes.

[gravitylover]

Read that article I linked to. It explains that the big guys are eating up all of the parts production. Trek in particular swallowed a huge amount. There was also a thing recently where some containers got dumped off a boat somewhere off the Asian coast.

[t.odd]

I read that previously, I fully understand that the big guys are buying everything out to accomplish basically what I was saying, I was more just opining on the shortsightedness of leaving existing bike owners without a supply of parts to keep them running. I get they're looking out for their interests, but as a whole the industry should be leery of that approach in further alienating people. But, the industry doesn't really give a fuck, which is also why I think so little of most of the industry.

[gravitylover]

I don't think we can blame the big OE manufacturers for swallowing up the parts production capacity, their goal isn't to crush the consumer post purchase it's to grow their businesses or at least keep them stable. I can't blame the factory owners for taking those big orders, their goal is to have a stable cash flow and that's enabled by having a stream of big orders. Unfortunately the perfect shitstorm happened and there's nothing left for us after the money spoke. I also don't think we can blame the industry for not having excess capacity as business is business and that's inefficient, reasonably well run businesses don't operate that way. Shimano was previously running at 96% efficiency which is what they're supposed to do, it would take over a year to increase that capacity and unless there was some guarantee that business would continue at this new high level it doesn't make sense for them to do that so it's small, incremental increases which don't amount to enough to satisfy both sides of the market.

There are a few companies that had the foresight to increase their orders last spring while others were running scared and cancelling, they will have product through the season. Probably not enough to make up for those that don't though. The other thing that happened is the materials shortage. I was speaking to the top exec at one of the companies I work with and they can't get some cassettes because the extruded aluminum for the carriers won't be available until June so that's when they will be able to start production. That puts those cassettes here in September at best and that's the bread and butter level for them (and me). They also got pushed back on certain bearings until September so that product won't be able to hit the shelves here in the US until next winter, it was supposed to be here last summer

I know that I'm going to go through the family fleet and see what I might need to keep it running this year and order what I think I'll need soon before it's gone.

[alpinevibes]

Not the sales mgr, that came down from the big office. I followed up and it looks like they doubled up on incoming orders so maybe that can get filled. Did you all see the article in BRAIN today about the supply issues? https://www.bicycleretailer.com/inte...5#.YEZu4ugZ6yJ

Super interesting to see this explained more in depth. What do you predict for small-medium brands who weren’t as prepared and now have a lot of cash flow tied up for inventory that won’t arrive for 6-12mo? Seems like some will get pinched in the interim and be forced to close if they have nothing left to create cash flow, while they wait on a distant resupply.

[gravitylover]

Some will depend on how their factory contracts are written and their relationships with the producers. Is it pay upon order, pay upon production start or pay upon delivery as to what cash they have available to operate in the interim. If they can keep cash flowing by pivoting to other profitable products that are accessible they will likely be ok as long as they have what's needed to cover the production of the primary product when it happens. Some lead times are out to 500+ days now, I don't know of many small companies that can wait over a year and a half for product and still be a going concern. There is still a fair amount of cheap money available so the stronger ones should be able to borrow their way through but will they want to? That's a slippery slope. The companies that panic cancelled orders are probably fucked as they got pushed to the back of the list behind the ones that didn't.

I know there is a lot of scrambling going on to figure that out. Some are investing heavily in 3D printing and cnc machines here in the US to make things happen but critical pieces that need specialized manufacturing equipment are going to hold that back. One company I work with is printing prototypes in house but once testing is done on those they're dependent on the factories to be able to source the raw materials for production. They've secured the production time but the materials are in flux so they may have to give up that time and then get pushed to the back of the line for things that can be made.

Bottom line is the bike industry is small time compared to other industries with deeper pockets. While Bosch is a huge player on the global market you've got to figure that the mobile phone and computer industries are going to swallow the semi-chip production and leave nothing for e-bike controllers and the EV industry is eating up battery production. Like I mentioned before the extruded aluminum for cassette carriers is unavailable, most likely because auto manufacturers (and similar) have bought it all. Next we will probably hear that the high strength steel alloys used in chains is unavailable so you'll have to sacrifice and buy a cheap replacement chain for your fancy schmancy 12 speed drivetrain. You'll still be riding but it might work like shit...

[t.odd]

good comments, GL...shitty time all around

[smmokan]

Here's another layer to the current complications... at what point will demand drop back down to normal levels (either due to pandemic fatigue or frustration with the backorder situation), forcing cancelled orders for components and frames by companies across the board? The way the bike industry goes, you can't plan on keeping parts or bikes in stock for very long because there's always a new model on the horizon and you don't want to get stuck with old stock/tech. It seems like the bigger companies who are "hoarding" parts might get stuck with their pants down, for lack of a better phrase.

I personally think this spring things will get crazier before they get better, but demand will start normalizing over the summer once things (hopefully) start returning to normal with wider vaccine distribution and a long hangover from the current bike industry situation. But then again, I'm not tied into the industry nearly as deep as some others here.

[SchralphMacchio]

I’m not looking at the data, but the anecdotal evidence seems to suggest it’s more likely than not that when the high water level pulls back we’re still going to be at a higher demand baseline for outdoor recreation products across the board. I’m not talking dentist level builds here, but Deore/SLX and SX/NX stuff. Just go look at your local ski resort, hiking trail, camp spots etc - and ask any JONGs you meet if they are planning on quitting the sport anytime soon?

The other thing is that production capacity didn’t increase. This is all about the challenge of the disrupted supply chain being able clear backlog, so we’re not talking about a giant bag of goods that anyone is going to be left holding when this thing crests.

[alpinevibes]

Some lead times are out to 500+ days now, I don't know of many small companies that can wait over a year and a half for product and still be a going concern. There is still a fair amount of cheap money available so the stronger ones should be able to borrow their way through but will they want to? That's a slippery slope. The companies that panic cancelled orders are probably fucked as they got pushed to the back of the list behind the ones that didn't.

For sure, and I wasn't thinking about delivery/payment terms as well. I feel like the big danger is that by the time parts become available to resupply smaller players, the demand will likely start to fall off and suddenly the supply problem inverts, like smmokan alluded to:

Here's another layer to the current complications... at what point will demand drop back down to normal levels (either due to pandemic fatigue or frustration with the backorder situation), forcing cancelled orders for components and frames by companies across the board? The way the bike industry goes, you can't plan on keeping parts or bikes in stock for very long because there's always a new model on the horizon and you don't want to get stuck with old stock/tech. It seems like the bigger companies who are "hoarding" parts might get stuck with their pants down, for lack of a better phrase.

I personally think this spring things will get crazier before they get better, but demand will start normalizing over the summer once things (hopefully) start returning to normal with wider vaccine distribution and a long hangover from the current bike industry situation. But then again, I'm not tied into the industry nearly as deep as some others here.

It will be interesting to see how the vaccine rollout/life returning to semi-normal affects peoples buying, but also if the delay in parts/supply for the industry draws out the decline, longer than normal. Strange times.

Next we will probably hear that the high strength steel alloys used in chains is unavailable so you'll have to sacrifice and buy a cheap replacement chain for your fancy schmancy 12 speed drivetrain. You'll still be riding but it might work like shit...

Ok ok, I think I'll be getting two extra SRAM chains here soon, while I can.

[jackstraw]

The other side of the coin is the overall economy. It sure is weird right now, but if we end up in a recession all of this changes.

If I was a manufacturer I certainly wouldn't be making any changes based on the current demand. Status quo for sustainability.

[gravitylover]

^ Yup.

Ok ok, I think I'll be getting two extra SRAM chains here soon, while I can.

Not soon, NOW. I heard from an insider there this morning and they are just about sold out with very little in the pipe for later. Basically what's on the shelves now is it for the year unless somebody backs out on a big order.

I have a feeling that as the supply chain fixes itself there will be inventory "found" that's sitting in containers around the world and there will be small bumps in availability as that happens. As the economy in some places like Africa and the third world continues to crater things will get moved around and we'll see some improvement but that's only for basic repair parts and dead tire sizes, not the stuff we want. Some companies were able to ramp up production like Fox but that doesn't help when the aluminum to make those forks is unavailable but they have fairly deep pockets and are diversified into other industries so are purchasing more than the average bike industry players that have blinders on to the rest of the industrial world.

[t.odd]

I checked a local retailers online shop yesterday and it said 136 pairs of metallic Code pads, this morning it was down to 40ish at one store and zero in the other....get your shit now!

[Andeh]

[chains]
Not soon, NOW. I heard from an insider there this morning and they are just about sold out with very little in the pipe for later. Basically what's on the shelves now is it for the year unless somebody backs out on a big order.

Uggh. I just put on a new XX1 chain which lasts a long time, but the one that I got most recently was super short and didn't leave me with any spare links in case of breakage. I don't really want to have a spare $90 chain, but I'm guessing if I don't, I will find a way to break it right when they're unavailable.

[dan_pdx]

, a coworker shared this: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlton...h=43b76649149c

Just underlines what everyone has been saying - apparently the slide below is from a senior exec at Specialized

[Conundrum]

Not bike industry, but aluminum related so seems to apply here. My grandpa sells aluminum cattle trailers for Wilson, one of the largest manufacturers in the US. He has a four state exclusive deal for their parts and there's only a couple dealers for entire new trailers in those four states. Last month he called me and was excited that he had of his best Jan-Feb for new trailer sales in his 60 year company history-like almost what he would do in a entire down year. March first, Wilson called him and they are capping allotments for '21 and he already reached his new allotment because of his awesome first couple months. So basically, he is now selling late '22 and '23 trailers.

He is one of their longest term independent dealers in the US. Since his last trailer order, they have increased prices 20%, rewrote the contract saying that whatever trailer is spec'd, the buyer will pay current pricing at three months prior to delivery, and they are looking at 12-18 months out on any order placed now moving forward. So, cattle trailers sold the rest of '21 won't be delivered until late '22 and the customer doesn't know how much they'll cost. Luckily, he also repairs trailers so that side of his business is going to rocking keeping high mile and wrecked trailers back on the road. Hopefully there will be a steady parts supply line.

To put that into perspective, people need to eat and it will affect food supply costs. Bikes/bike parts are little further down the list of where metal is going.

[evasive_MT]

Yeah, we’re also sinking cash into a box of parts while we can, unfortunately. People we know in the sales and distribution side of the industry started warning us late last fall. I haven’t had a broken derailleur in 30 years, but I’m sure if it happens this’ll be the year. I think I posted above I have a spare derailleur, chain, brake pads, rim, and tires. I’m starting the season with new brakes and drivetrain, including BB. And we’re locking the bikes everywhere.

I talked to a wheelbuilder I know in another state and he’s carrying 3x the inventory he usually does because he’s not expecting to be able to restock. Our local shop expects to have no inventory by some point this season and focus completely on service.

I have a friend who’s been wanting to get back into riding, and decided this is the year. Fortunately he was able to get his name on a bike anticipated in April- fingers crossed for him it shows up. Bike delivery times are usually frustrating in a normal year (though SCB tends to be better). Now he’ll sweat it showing at all.

[Dantheman]

This seems like a good summer to do more trail running than riding.

[rideit]

One fear I have for the local shops is that it is really hard to do repairs without spare parts...people are gonna have to learn to become real mechanics again!

[Andeh]

Related, I'm taking it upon myself to try and self-service bearings this year, rather than running them until they're crunchy, throwing them away, and installing new ones. I'll keep a spare set in case this plan fails, but pretty sure if I pop the seals and flush some new grease in every 3-6 months, they will last forever.

[XXX-er]

Uggh. I just put on a new XX1 chain which lasts a long time, but the one that I got most recently was super short and didn't leave me with any spare links in case of breakage. I don't really want to have a spare $90 chain, but I'm guessing if I don't, I will find a way to break it right when they're unavailable.

consumanbles you know you will use

i always have spare chains, a couple tubes of skin glue, cases of wine, even a full tank of gas

[Sandbox]

I’ve been searching the local Kijiji and just buying parts up here and there. Brakes, chains, hell even a seat as I’ve broken one of those before.

Ordered a set of magura MT7 brakes and was told 6 weeks so will see. I won’t even be selling my old brakes like I normally do, into the parts bin. If not for me then for friends who always brake stuff


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[toast2266]

Went and stocked up on wear items at the local shop today. They said chains are the current tough one - they had a few in stock, but they said that once they run out, they probably won't have any more for quite a while.

[scrublover]

After reading about all this the last couple months, but not having any industry connections, I made sure to pick up a few things. A couple chains, cassettes, sets of brake pads, grips, shift cables, and bulk housing. Two spare derailleurs, a couple chain-rings, a spare shifter, a set of brakes, and a crank that will fit 2 of 3 bikes. Good on tires/sealant/suspension service stuff/brake bleeding stuff as well. Running mostly the same stuff on all the bikes, so keeps it a bit easier. Probably ought to grab a spare BB if possible, but at least servicing the ones I've got is easy enough as long as they aren't destroyed. They all use the same type/size, so at least worst case would be able to cannibalize to keep at least one bike running.

Bought the cheapy SRAM steel direct mount rings - sure they are heavier and not fancy, but they work well and last much longer than the alu rings.

[VTskibum]

Thx for the heads up stocked up as well, X01 cassette, XX1 chain (gx unavailable seems like), pads for mtb and CX bike.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk