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Thread: 2021 Supply
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01-14-2021, 11:20 AM #51Registered User
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Most of the companies I rep have said that unless shops already have orders in they won't be receiving much, if any, product this year. Other than one they've given up on anything too big/heavy/expensive to ship by air because there aren't any slots on boats open until 3/22. While it's frustrating for you guys it pretty much eliminates my ability as a rep to earn an income for the next 10-15 months. My income got cut in half for 2020 as inventories dwindled in June, this is going to kill us.
I was hoping not to have to sell a bunch of stuff I have, bikes, gear, etc. because I figured I'd need them to keep the family riding this year but I might have to to keep us afloat.
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01-14-2021, 12:31 PM #52Registered User
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Shop buddy told me they ordered BIG so if everything they ordered actualy does deliver they will have ordered too much product
Lee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know
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01-14-2021, 01:33 PM #53Registered User
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...and within an hour after I posted I got the email from my biggest income producer that they will be completely sold out by the end of April and we shouldn't expect any commission checks after May. They don't expect to be able to go back into production until some time in 2022. 20 minutes later another emailed that the shipment that's on the water now will be the last for at least 10 months.
I'm fucked.
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01-14-2021, 01:48 PM #54"If we can't bring the mountain to the party, let's bring the PARTY to the MOUNTAIN!"
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01-14-2021, 02:37 PM #55
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01-14-2021, 02:43 PM #56Registered User
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01-14-2021, 02:45 PM #57Registered User
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yeah the container shipping bidness is in crisis so are the airlines which I imagine includes air freight,
for some reason the industry ^^ news websites put this stuff in my computer
shop bro told me where they are used to expecting 1/3rd of their total order at a time from a mfger, this year they expect one shipment onlyLee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know
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01-14-2021, 02:47 PM #58
Sorry, GL, hope you can ride this out.
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01-14-2021, 04:12 PM #59
Most reps are independent contractors, right so not much gov/PPP type help? Is the OIA or any other bike/trade group proposing support or assistance as this thing starts to rear its head?
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01-14-2021, 04:29 PM #60Registered User
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Most of the guys I know are independent and no, we don't qualify for shit. Most of us are also older and have already found it hard to get a "good" job anymore because of it which is why we're doing what we're doing for ourselves. I spoke to one guy this afternoon and he also took a 50% haircut over the last 6 months or so when his top brand sold out of bikes. He makes more than I do but he's expecting to make about half of last year in '21 so, ouch... Sounds like it's finally time to open a mobile shop and get my hands dirty again. Go fix bikes in the driveways of people that are working and don't want to deal with the inevitable delays at bike shops once the sun comes out again. Heck, I already have the insurance, tools and ability.
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01-15-2021, 08:45 AM #61
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01-15-2021, 01:48 PM #62
GL with whatever you do, GL.
It’s a rough time.
The difficulty with mobile repair right now (obviously) is parts availability in order to do those repairs...Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident
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01-15-2021, 02:52 PM #63Registered User
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2021 Supply
Just ordered a Works 1.5 degree headset thanks to this thread to revitalize my 2017 Trance. No new bikes in my foreseeable future.
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01-15-2021, 03:04 PM #64
Mobile suspension biz would be dope.
Sent from my iPhone using TGR ForumsHowever many are in a shit ton.
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01-15-2021, 03:21 PM #65Registered User
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shops were hair straightback long lead times to get repairs so yeah if you can do repairs cheaper/faster you can make some coin and don't forget to pay tax on the money
Lee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know
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01-15-2021, 03:51 PM #66Registered User
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^^ Pay tax on the CC and online trackable payments, pocket most of the cash.
Rideit - yeah parts... Good thing I have a few inside lines on where things are too bad they're not as strong as necessary this year
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01-15-2021, 05:51 PM #67Registered User
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what cash ?
Lee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know
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01-15-2021, 07:20 PM #68Registered User
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01-16-2021, 09:42 AM #69
Was texting with an industry friend and asked him how the supply chain situation was for them:
"It's beyond crazy. We made a brake order in early November and we won't see the order until May. Raw materials are almost nonexistent."
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01-16-2021, 10:00 AM #70
Based on what I'm seeing, the smaller bike companies are getting creative and offering alternative build options in order to get bikes out the door. For example, GG is now offering Magura brakes instead of the standard SRAM/Shimano stuff if you want to get your bike anytime soon. I had Code R's spec'ed on a bike, and they replaced them with MT7 Pros. I'll take it.
They've also had to swap some other things out in the drivetrain and even the available decal colors for the bike (which I don't understand, but whatever)... but I'm guessing that's something the smaller, more nimble companies can do that the big dogs can't.
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01-16-2021, 10:07 AM #71Registered User
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The good news is I can sell my 12 y o 150k mile 4Runner for way higher than blue book. The bad news it can’t even cover a used bike cost thanks to all the same supply constraints. Looks like I’ll have to stick with my 10 y o HT 29’er build.
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01-16-2021, 10:33 AM #72
I think PinkBike product releases are funny.
“Here’s a review of pants you’ll never get to see!” Yay
Sent from my iPhone using TGR ForumsHowever many are in a shit ton.
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01-18-2021, 10:10 AM #73Registered User
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I run the day to day of a small road/gravel bike brand - it's a mess. We've got frames, and we've got frames in production...but parts are another story. I've been ordering in advance and watching lead times get bumped, I'm certain my orders have been bumped for bigger orders from bigger brands. We're changing our spec'd parts packages entirely just based on what we can get - I don't see a Shimano GRX groupset coming in my loading bay door for months when it used to be the workhorse of our lineup.
Biggest issue I can see is lack of accuracy or transparency in lead times - the big suppliers simply can't seem to do it and so the panic ordering continues all around. I don't really see how all these orders will be followed through on from the buying end.
Anyways, if you don't need a bike right now, I bet you'll find a really rad one that's barely been ridden at a big discount in 2022/2023. If you do need a bike, consider a smaller brand that might be able to work something out sooner or a frame only and reuse some current parts.
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01-18-2021, 11:59 AM #74
That anecdote makes it sound like there’s about to be a flood of new frames at barn burner prices for those willing to flip parts over.
Sent from my iPhone using TGR ForumsHowever many are in a shit ton.
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01-18-2021, 01:16 PM #75Registered User
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I think it's more likely we see big brand complete bikes at mega deals on Craigslist once people realize they don't actually ride them.
Manufacturers probably won't be wheeling and dealing too much - especially those of us who don't use model years. We've definitely seen an uptick in rolling chassis sales or frame + parts though.
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