To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[teletech]

The kid vax is tricky. The trial for it was tiny and the duration of it was shorter by 2/3 then a normal trial. There is studies out there that 40% of kids already had covid and were asymptomatic. I don’t know if that’s true or not. But in my small family sample my 5yr old was positive and asymptomatic and my 7 yr old was negative. Both us vaccinated parents got it, my wife is still sounding like shit. I still can’t smell after almost 3 weeks. 1 in 500,000 chances of dying for a kid under 12.
My kids won’t be getting it anytime soon, based on our recent case. But it’s a parents job to do what they think is best for their children.

[PNWbrit]

The kid vax is tricky. The trial for it was tiny and the duration of it was shorter by 2/3 then a normal trial. There is studies out there that 40% of kids already had covid and were asymptomatic. I don’t know if that’s true or not. But in my small family sample my 5yr old was positive and asymptomatic and my 7 yr old was negative. Both us vaccinated parents got it, my wife is still sounding like shit. I still can’t smell after almost 3 weeks. 1 in 500,000 chances of dying for a kid under 12.
My kids won’t be getting it anytime soon, based on our recent case. But it’s a parents job to do what they think is best for their children.

"There is studies"

?

[mtuhockey33]

"There is studies"

?

*Federal Scientists estimate - per this article: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/03/cdc-...accinated.html

“Federal scientists estimated that as many as 40% of children ages 5 to 11 have already been infected with Covid”

[teletech]

The trial was under 5000 kids with a 1/3rd being placebo over a 2 month period. That’s the study

[PNWbrit]

*Federal Scientists estimate - per this article: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/03/cdc-...accinated.html

“Federal scientists estimated that as many as 40% of children ages 5 to 11 have already been infected with Covid”

Woosh...

[Flyoverland Captive]

[bennymac]

I’m triple vaxxed. I have been and will be exposed to covid+ people. I think we all will. So knowing that fact I wanted to know what else I could do to minimize chances of symptomatic infection/bad covid. I’m not obese. I sleep a lot. I exercise daily. I’m not stressed. I eat healthy foods and avoid junk.

That’s where this vitamin D post stemmed from. That literally says in the last paragraph to get vaccinated.

I 100% understand and appreciate people questioning the precision of the numbers and in turn possibly the strength of the conclusion. But to be all like “my antivax neighbor talks about vitamin D what a joke” makes you the other side of the same coin don’t you think?

[TG]

Woosh...

dunning kruger personified
the morons don’t have the awareness to know that they are morons

[skiJ]

I would like to review the study that claims "1 in 500,000 chances ... in kids under 12."

Thank you. tj

[teletech]

I was just doing the numbers 29,000,000 kids 5-12. 66 died 1 in 439 ,000 last year(skidogs #). 95 kids 5-12 yrs old have died In the whole pandemic so 1 in 305,000 chance whole pandemic

[funkendrenchman]

I was just doing the numbers 29,000,000 kids 5-12. 66 died 1 in 439 ,000 last year(skidogs #). 95 kids 5-12 yrs old have died In the whole pandemic so 1 in 305,000 chance whole pandemic

Your math is wrong. You can’t use total number of kids as the denominator.

[bodywhomper]

And British data is that 7-8% of those kids that are infected will (or have) develop long covid…. That’s over 2M.

[jono]

I was just doing the numbers 29,000,000 kids 5-12. 66 died 1 in 439 ,000 last year(skidogs #). 95 kids 5-12 yrs old have died In the whole pandemic so 1 in 305,000 chance whole pandemic

Thanks for showing your work. How many years (or "whole pandemics," whichever seems more relevant) should kids live? Or is a significant fraction of the eventual pandemic behind us in your best guess?

The Israeli study mentioned earlier has been discussed at length, as mentioned. Among other problems, they selected as the vaccinated group people who were vaccinated first: the highest risk group based on age, occupation, etc. Feel free to search for the full discussion.

Re: kids, eradication offers the youngest people the greatest benefit, since they hope to get older and live through all other age groups. Including 15-17, when myocarditis is a real risk for boys. If you're worried about side effects, look for mounting evidence that the earliest first shot/longest interval is best.

Here's a long term effect that used to be pretty rare (hopefully kids get a nice long time to find out if it shows up or not, like all long term issues):

"Pulmonary fibrosis is a lung disease that occurs when lung tissue becomes damaged and scarred. This thickened, stiff tissue makes it more difficult for your lungs to work properly. As pulmonary fibrosis worsens, you become progressively more short of breath.

The scarring associated with pulmonary fibrosis can be caused by a multitude of factors. But in most cases, doctors can't pinpoint what's causing the problem. When a cause can't be found, the condition is termed idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

The lung damage caused by pulmonary fibrosis can't be repaired, but medications and therapies can sometimes help ease symptoms and improve quality of life. For some people, a lung transplant might be appropriate."

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-...s/syc-20353690

[goldenboy]

Pulmonary Fibrosis isn't that rare-it kills as many people as breast cancer. There is no cure and average life expectancy is 5 years once diagnosed. I wouldn't wish it on anyone, it killed my dad.

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[skiJ]

oh.
I understood what you were stating Very differently
( I thought you were saying 1 in 500,000 would die from vaccination (! !!!) )

agree with the comment above that 'the statistics' are more complicated than simple Math, And
will intuitively claim, with vaccination, the number drops ( see modeling above comparing modeling without vaccination )

and
thanks for your candid response. tj

[wooley12]

So just how does a human transmit Covid to a deer?

[Flyoverland Captive]

Sex. Ever been to Wisconsin?

[AK47bp]

So just how does a human transmit Covid to a deer?

Bend over and I’ll show ya


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[jono]

Pulmonary Fibrosis isn't that rare-it kills as many people as breast cancer. There is no cure and average life expectancy is 5 years once diagnosed. I wouldn't wish it on anyone, it killed my dad.

Sorry, man. I lost an aunt to it a few years back and I couldn't agree more, it's nasty. Lung cancer to go with it is all too common, too. I had no idea it was killing more than breast cancer. I remember lots of speculation about the causes for idiopathic at the time but it all sounded to me like lung tissue is just easily scarred.

These days I hear the anti-vax bug is running in that family because of course it is. At this rate maybe the next generation will be growing new lungs on pigs or something.

[goldenboy]

I had no idea it was killing more than breast cancer.

Yeah, it's weird, pulmonary fibrosis kills a lot of people, and it's underdiagnosed, but it gets a tiny fraction of the research funding and zero pink license plates. Maybe because it generally hits older people.

Anyway, given my experience with IPF, it's one of the reasons I'd prefer not to get Covid and worry that a lot of people will have trouble later in life even if Covid didn't make them that sick. But Covid is new, so we won't know that for years/decades.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Even asymptotic Covid cases have “glass lung” on X-ray exam sometimes. We’ve diagnosed patients as Covid positive early on with X-ray exam in the ED that presented for other reasons. I’ve mentioned this before.


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[old goat]

The Israeli study mentioned earlier has been discussed at length, as mentioned. Among other problems, they selected as the vaccinated group people who were vaccinated first: the highest risk group based on age, occupation, etc. Feel free to search for the full discussion.

The non-vaccinated group was age matched.
Presumably the difference in breakthrough/recurrent cases between vaxed and previously infected would be less in lower risk age groups. The important takeaway from the article should be that previous infection is protective, with the caveats I mentioned earlier. But of course the comparison between vaxed and previously infected is what the authors emphasize and what gets the attention, because politics.

[jono]

The non-vaccinated group was age matched.
Presumably the difference in breakthrough/recurrent cases between vaxed and previously infected would be less in lower risk age groups. The important takeaway from the article should be that previous infection is protective, with the caveats I mentioned earlier. But of course the comparison between vaxed and previously infected is what the authors emphasize and what gets the attention, because politics.

Yeah, obviously the point should be something like how many doses to give the previously infected and when. But getting the numbers right is important for that, too. Age matching is one thing, but if you age match people with different jobs (particularly if the only young people you can use on the vaccine arm are high risk, because no other young people were eligible in Jan/Feb) you get a bias. As has been mentioned before, there is also going to be bias introduced by survivorship in the previously infected group, which can be very significant if a lot of the most immune deficient died before joining one arm and became breakthrough cases in the other--we are talking about small enough numbers that the CFR has a big impact, after all. Compounding that is the question of what to do with previously infected who got the vax: they weren't randomly assigned to a group, so their choices become cause for speculation. It's been noted that Israel has had waves in specific sub-cultures at different times, at least one of which was early exposure to delta in a well-vaxed group. So there are confounders to trying to get a broadly applicable comparison, but obviously there's still evidence there that should be considered.

I don't see a way to turn this question over to a PCT, so more retrospectives is all we'll ever see on it. They'll be spotty and inconsistent. Which is nice because then people can keep cherry-picking in the hope that either everyone wakes up and gets vaxed or the government finally respects the individual right to incubate live virus as a proof against vaccine requirements. It's a brave new world.

[jono]

No one who isn't already planning on getting their kid vaccinated is convinced by the CDC/FDA just putting out a statement saying "it's safe, get the vaccine". A tiny bit of effort to convince people that the risks are equal to or lower than other risks they take with their kids health would go a long ways.

I've had this same debate with management at one of my clients. Basically, whether there is any hope that the unconvinced will ever change their minds and whether it's worth any effort at all to offer them information. The persistent belief is that it's hopeless, and I think that comes from the same fallacy that tells some people not to worry about anything with a 98% survival rate: if only a small fraction can be helped it's easier to round it off to 0% or 100% and stick your head back in the sand.

In any other scenario there would be high level messaging ("it's safe and effective"), followed by progressively more detailed information both to provide proof of where that assessment came from and to give details that might be pertinent in unusual circumstances. Good messaging should provide a road map so people who want to go into the weeds can decide how deep to go. And these days it also needs to include de-bunking of misinformation, unfortunately. The fact that little to no effort is being put into that is itself used as evidence against reality.

Anyway, yeah, there should be a lot more effort put into convincing fence-sitters rather than writing them off with the hard core nuts (especially since writing off small fractions of large populations is the exact mistake those nuts are making).

[SumJongGuy]

Moderna #3 in arm. + previous infection late December. No waiting at Sam's Club this morning..