To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[bodywhomper]

Sure, not extrapolated but if combinatorics are your thing then you could use this study in your grant proposal to study other variations. FWIW, outside the U.S. lots of mixing and matching of vaccines happened so perhaps the results are a positive sign even if not specifically applicable.

It also begs the question if a booster shot should be something other than the initial jab(s).

Combinatorics. There’s gotta be a better name for that… gotta include “flipping” at the end of the phrase. But I’m lost. Anybody?

[Yonder_River]

The virologist did say that immunity increases more and more with each exposure. But again, the unvaccinated will be the ones that suffer. (Unless you crash your bike badly in an anti vax community and need a hospital bed).

Those were my main takeaways.

Pretty interesting.





sent from Utah.

Seattle area hospitals are about all full and all the e.r. directors have agreed they'll be no transfers, everyone is on their own. Doesn't matter what community it's in when you have an 80% rate in the city but a much lower rate in the sticks. They all come in and clog up the hospitals anyways. Self entitled fucks.

[Skidog]

Step it up. Mask outdoors for virtue signalling. Don't go indoors. N95 indoors when you can't avoid indoors.

To be fair I am kinda a "half ass masker" I wear a buff.

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[MagnificentUnicorn]

To be fair I am kinda a "half ass masker" I wear a buff.

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So it really is virtue signaling. Get a real mask.


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[Skidog]

So it really is virtue signaling. Get a real mask.


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Seems to have worked for well over a year for me. I think I will stick with it for now.

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[MagnificentUnicorn]

Seems to have worked for well over a year for me. I think I will stick with it for now.

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If you’re worried about protecting yourself and others, which it seems you are, get some real masks. Use one a day and toss.


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[ill-advised strategy]

Locally, the hillbilly county in my area with all the new cases: Delta county.


It’s like rain on your wedding day, or something

[Mofro261]

Combinatorics. There’s gotta be a better name for that… gotta include “flipping” at the end of the phrase. But I’m lost. Anybody?

The term you are looking for: Heterologous Prime/Boost.

[Conundrum]

It appears there are a bunch of soft mother fuckers in ‘Merica who still haven’t learned freedoms require responsibilities.

[jono]

It appears there are a bunch of soft mother fuckers in ‘Merica who still haven’t learned freedoms require responsibilities.

Ahnold's link to one of your neighbors:

https://www.idahostatesman.com/opini...247735425.html

[seano732]

Found RJs educational background…..




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[Adolf Allerbush]

I agree. Totally sincere.

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Right, if what Danno says is correct he's sincerely spreading misinformation/disinformation to push an antivax narrative during a raging pandemic. Sounds like several years ago he used to post some normal shit...now it's just misinformation/disinformation. Is that worthy of being banned? I guess it depends on if the mods think he's convincing people, in this case, to not get vaccinated.

[Ted Striker]

Isn't he just the troll alias of a (possibility former) regular poster? Not that I care

[Adolf Allerbush]

Isn't he just the troll alias of a (possibility former) regular poster? Not that I care

Perhaps, but if so isn't that banworthy? I thought there was a move a few years ago to put an end to multiple aliases?

[ron johnson]

loll, they're not calculating the rate for the "same time period for vaccination reinfections vs natural immunity infections" That's the point. They're incorrectly dividing a small slice of something by the totality of something else.

From the article: "Health Ministry data on the wave of COVID outbreaks which began this May show that Israelis with immunity from natural infection were far less likely to become infected again in comparison to Israelis who only had immunity via vaccination."

To do this you would divide known reinfections over said time period by total known COVID infections to find the reinfection %. To find the vaccine infection % you would divide known vaccine infections over said time period by total vaccinations. This is exactly what they did.

For some unclear reason you think it's appropriate to compare 2 months of vaccine infection data to 10 months of natural reinfection data.

In contrast, when they calculate vaccination reinfections they divide by the greatest common factor. Just look at their literal equations, as in literally how they describe them, there are no units of time in the equations:

instances of natural reinfection / total Israelis known to have recovered from the virus = % natural reinfections

instances of vax reinfection / total Israelis vaccinated = % vax reinfections

Because the equations compare 'totals' and not numbers over a span of time, 'instances of natural reinfection' should be the the total or about 900, and not 72.

Seriously, how is this not obvious?

They ARE comparing a span of time, not totals. The infection data they present is for the recent wave starting in May. Why would there be units of time in the equations when the data they give for infections is already from a certain time period?

"More than 7,700 new cases of the virus have been detected during the most recent wave starting in May, but just 72 of the confirmed cases were reported in people who were known to have been infected previously – that is, less than 1% of the new cases. Roughly 40% of new cases – or more than 3,000 patients – involved people who had been infected despite being vaccinated."

[MultiVerse]

Right, the calculations are correct for the % vax reinfections. That's not the problem.

It's not a problem because new breakthrough cases detected during the most recent wave roughly coincides with the vaccine rollout puts the vaxx infections denominator in the right ballpark.

The problems is with the denominator for the natural reinfections because things have changed since the pandemic began. Many of the people with natural reinfections also got vaccinated. Some of the natural reinfections in previous waves would have been infected during the delta wave instead, and so on. There's also the same problem as your table, which your article mentions, i.e. conflating numbers for specific areas with national averages.

A lot of these issues would cancel out and provide a gross back of the envelope estimate if they simply used the numbers since the pandemic began. Just think about it, why would the natural reinfection rate of 0.1% fall several orders of magnitude over a two month span unless somebody screwed up the math? It's an obvious error.

[ron johnson]

Right, if what Danno says is correct he's sincerely spreading misinformation/disinformation to push an antivax narrative during a raging pandemic. Sounds like several years ago he used to post some normal shit...now it's just misinformation/disinformation. Is that worthy of being banned? I guess it depends on if the mods think he's convincing people, in this case, to not get vaccinated.

#1. Danno made some milque-toast claim with no evidence.

#2. I'm not anti-vax. I just don't think everyone should take it.

#3. If you want to change people's minds you do it with evidence and reason, not censorship.

[wooley12]

Fuck off

[ron johnson]

Right, the calculations are correct for the % vax reinfections. That's not the problem.

The problem is number for % natural reinfections.

How? Why do you insist on using the data from 10 months instead of the 2 month period in question?

[Ted Striker]

Perhaps, but if so isn't that banworthy? I thought there was a move a few years ago to put an end to multiple aliases?

I'm all for aliases when they're funny. Or at least clever. RJ is just tedious.

I don't actually know what his deal is, because I stopped reading his posts back when he was just a climate denier. I just have a faint recollection that someone like Damian or steep or whomever started rj as a troll, and then made it their main voice when their former account attracted too much shit, or was banned.

[MultiVerse]

How? Why do you insist on using the data from 10 months instead of the 2 month period in question?

I'm not insisting on anything. Your source is using data since the pandemic began, not me. If they were in fact using data over the same time period in both the numerator and the denominator then their numbers would be more accurate.

As it stands, their numbers are off by several orders of magnitude.

[jono]

From the article: "Health Ministry data on the wave of COVID outbreaks which began this May show that Israelis with immunity from natural infection were far less likely to become infected again in comparison to Israelis who only had immunity via vaccination."

To do this you would divide known reinfections over said time period by total known COVID infections to find the reinfection %. To find the vaccine infection % you would divide known vaccine infections over said time period by total vaccinations. This is exactly what they did.

Wrong. How many of those who have recovered also got vaccinated? You want to compare those who only got vaccinated with those who got infected without ever looking at how many of the first group were both infected and vaccinated. You're mixing reinfections with breakthrough+reinfections and the denominator for reinfections alone is unknowable from the data presented. That's fatally flawed and it's intentionally misleading to equate "previously infected" to mean only infected and never vaccinated when there's obviously a large number of people in that previously infected group who were also vaccinated.

It's well known that the best immunity comes from adding vaccination to prior infection (helps that prior infection pre-selects for survivors). All this hand waving probably reinforces that fact--but only probably. Because they don't cite the relevant data. Either they don't have it or, like yourself, they don't know how to use it so they just left it out.

I bet you don't even own 26" wheels anymore. No principles at all.

[CarlMega]

Found RJs educational background…..




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Maybe one positive of the pandemic is that Facebook is going to be irrevocably and permanently branded as a cesspool of shit information for gullible losers. It already lost the young people as a place for grandmas but once you are the equivalent to the Edisel with a reputation as good a Pinto/Gremlin and about as cool as an Pontiac Aztek - I think your future is set.

[basinbeater]

Eh went back and deleted all of his posts prior to June 2020. He posted stoke years ago, and then disappeared for a while, and resurfaced as the global warming misinformation doubt casting troll. Since the pandemic, all of his posts are in the troll thread, or in the pandemic threads, again, spreading disinformation and casting doubt. I vote ban hammer. It is not the same person it once was.

sent from Utah.

[TBS]

For every post from one of the trolls and antivaxers there are at least 3 from people arguing with them. It is within our power to moderate the forum ourselves.

^^^ Let’s all really try our best to soak this one in ^^^

This needs reiteration.
Don’t feed the trolls and they will ban themselves