To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[MultiVerse]

Few things are as boring as rehashing the mask debate yet again but for all the talk of inconclusive studies and reports showing little mask efficacy there are also plenty of “real-world” studies showing a confirmed benefit from masks:

• An investigation of a high-exposure event, in which 2 symptomatically ill hair stylists interacted for an average of 15 minutes with each of 139 clients during an 8-day period, found that none of the 67 clients who subsequently consented to an interview and testing developed infection. The stylists and all clients universally wore masks in the salon as required by local ordinance and company policy at the time.
• In a study of 124 Beijing households with > 1 laboratory-confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 infection, mask use by the index patient and family contacts before the index patient developed symptoms reduced secondary transmission within the households by 79%.
• A retrospective case-control study from Thailand documented that, among more than 1,000 persons interviewed as part of contact tracing investigations, those who reported having always worn a mask during high-risk exposures experienced a greater than 70% reduced risk of acquiring infection compared with persons who did not wear masks under these circumstances.
• A study of an outbreak aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt, an environment notable for congregate living quarters and close working environments, found that use of face coverings on-board was associated with a 70% reduced risk.
• Investigations involving infected passengers aboard flights longer than 10 hours strongly suggest that masking prevented in-flight transmissions, as demonstrated by the absence of infection developing in other passengers and crew in the 14 days following exposure.

Additional analysis of data from 200 countries that included the U.S. also demonstrated reductions in mortality. Another 10-site study showed reductions in hospitalization growth rates following mask mandate implementation. A separate series of cross-sectional surveys in the U.S. suggested that a 10% increase in self-reported mask wearing tripled the likelihood of stopping community transmission. An economic analysis using U.S. data found that, given these effects, increasing universal masking by 15% could prevent the need for lockdowns and reduce associated losses of up to $1 trillion or about 5% of gross domestic product.

Updated May 7, 2021 : https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...sars-cov2.html

[ron johnson]

I understand that you believe the vaccines are without sufficient long-term safety data and that they haven't been fully evaluated. But when the vast majority of healthcare professionals, virologists, immunologists, and medical experts recommend vaccination (and have they themselves been opted for vaccination), a critically thinking individual would step back and consider the possibility that their conclusions were incorrect.

I don't believe that the vaccines are without long term safety data. It's a simple fact. You're preferred professionals, virologists, immunologists, and medical experts are the one's that believe they are safe long term. It is undeniable that any scientific professional that questions the mainstream narrative on vaccines is take a huge career risk. And there are people in these fields that question the mainstream narrative. Robert Malone is one of the creators of mRNA vaccines and he regrets taking it.

For the record, I think some people should take the vaccine. I just don't think it makes sense for me. I firmly believe there is a cutoff point where the risk isn't worth the reward. We can argue where the cutoff point is, but to pretend it doesn't exist is disingenuous. For instance, the UK thinks kids under 18 shouldn't take it: https://apnews.com/article/europe-he...6ed14bd3cc12a5

I understand that you find masks to be an uncomfortable nuisance (I live in TX, by the way, so unless you're from Makhachkala or Yevpatoria, you can take your bitching and go fuck yourself) with no demonstrable benefit other than social compliance. Many things in life fall into this category (dress shoes, shaving/wearing a beard, neck ties, and (according to what I've been told) innumerable feminine customs); where is your indignation for these irritations? Regardless, I'm glad to learn your refusal to mask and insistence on shitting all over scores of pages of this previously-beneficial thread stems entirely from the fact that wearing a mask is slightly less than pleasant.

Maybe because these things are voluntary??

Ironically, if we had 100% mask compliance (followed by 100% vaccine compliance) no infant would be deprived a diversity of human interaction for over a year, let alone 2+. I also don't know what would happen if they were? But masks were recommended for two years during the 1918 Flu Pandemic, it seems those kids turned out pretty alright. Hell, they even got a cool nickname.

Get real. We had 90%+ mask compliance in this country for a year. It did nothing. The vaccinated are still spreading COVID. Iceland currently has the highest amount of cases of the entire pandemic despite the majority of its adult population being vaccinated and nearly 100% of people over 50. COVID is here forever.

[summit]

I'd go a step further and say that the eye-catching "similar viral loads" vaxed/unvaxed is a genuine nothing--a totally predictable example of selection bias, and an intentional one.

Obviously people who test positive should be expected to have a very similar viral load (at that moment) whether they were vaccinated or not. Because the test itself is just a qualitative version of the quantitative test that checks viral load. Give two tests that measure the same thing and get the same result: not shocking.

I'm guessing the crux many people missed is that, statistically, a PCR is effectively a viral load test: give enough people the test and while their individual loads will vary, those who have enough to test positive will have a similar average regardless of most other factors (as long as you don't also pre-select by hospitalization or something that creates a bias toward convalescence etc.) There's a failure to understand the stats, much like OG's point about type II errors, but in this case the stats people should have been consulted before the press release.

Pretest probility is driven by severity of illness. Symptomatic patients are more likely to get tested and more likely to have a higher viral load.

Aggregate PCR Ct data are not part of the public dataset to use as a proxy.

[summit]

FAn investigation of a high-exposure event, in which 2 symptomatically ill hair stylists interacted for an average of 15 minutes with each of 139 clients during an 8-day period, found that none of the 67 clients who subsequently consented to an interview and testing developed infection. The stylists and all clients universally wore masks in the salon as required by local ordinance and company policy at the time.

There was insufficient and nonrandomized (naturally) contact tracing limiting the conclusions. Unofficially there were some symptomatic people who refused testing. This happened in Missouri which is why #1 it happened #2 there was subpar workup and lack of cooperation. And still, it was cautiously encouraging data.

[ron johnson]

Based solely on his posts, there appears to be agreement mtu isn’t the brightest light on the tree, but that’s no crime. He seems earnest enough and I think he reproduces some the common confusions out there in the real world.

Hard to get a read on RJ. He recently posted that ‘idiots’ who wear masks driving a car alone somehow are ‘in’ the group here of people who recognize the value of the vaccine. Apparently he didn’t remember the simple explanation several times in these threads that when people were running multiple errands, and had a comfortable mask, it was easier to leave it on.

Public forums are messy. I’m fine with that. Just hope the mags here with actual medical backgrounds continue to post useful stuff.

Comfortable mask is an oxymoron. When I'm in that situation I let it hang from one ear. Either way, even if there is a defensible reason to wear a mask solo in a car, do you deny that there are nutjobs out there wearing them because it makes them feel safe?

[Adolf Allerbush]

Roughly 1/2 of adult Americans are obese. You can wish away that this isn't our population demographics, but this is the challenge we are presented with.

Exactly. Plus, what Buster said.

I was talking to a friend over the weekend that works for a naturopathy company who's owner thinks that we just need to let the disease run it's course, meaning there should be no mitigation measures because this is just what happens every hundred or so years to thin out the herd. Mr. Gyptian, RJ, and others seem to agree with this point of view.

Unfortunately, that portion of society is a lost cause IMO. No amount of scientific information will convince them that something they read online that confirms their bias is wrong.

[Toadman]

Talked to my co-worker this morning, whose wife has COVID. She is very healthy, physically active, primarily vegetarian, or at least plant based and focused diet. Doesn't really drink alcohol. She got the COVID and ended up in the hospital. Also contracted pneumonia while she was there. Looks like she is at home now, so not sure if they gave her monoclonal antibodies or what.

But, I guess you take your chances with the COVID if you are anti-vaxxer. I suppose we really need the COVID variants to become more infectious and deadlier for the anti-vax crowd to reconsider. Or, at least die off and reduce the surplus population.

[summit]

Does someone with a better memory that me remember a post in this thread for a positivity vs incidence paper that gave a conversion factor for true incidence? I remember thinking I didn't want to play with that magic math when it was posted... but now my local positivity is so high that I am nowhere near trusting my local incidence numbers.

[Buster Highmen]

It's true there's no long term data on the covid vax.
But there is long term data on covid itself.

I'll take hope over despair.
And minor discomfort over viscious, viscous avariciousness.

[MultiVerse]

Iceland currently has the highest amount of cases of the entire pandemic despite the majority of its adult population being vaccinated and nearly 100% of people over 50. COVID is here forever.

For some reason many people are drawing the wrong conclusion from the fact delta is more infectious. The above is an argument for vaccines, not against vaccines because vaccinated people are:

1) Much less likely to be infected in the first place
2) Much less likely to be hospitalized
3) Much less likely to die

[ron johnson]

ahhh good ole Gov Death Sentence

Despite having the oldest population in the US and the most relaxed restrictions, Florida is middle of the pack in deaths per capita.

[Ted Striker]

Roughly 1/2 of adult Americans are obtuse. You can wish away that this isn't our population demographics, but this is the challenge we are presented with.

FIFY

And that estimate might be on the low side.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Thing is, and this is where our CDC loses credibility, this was a perfect time to reeducate and or inform the public on what healthy living is, but they didn't say shit.

78% of the COVID hospitalizations in the US were obese folk. This virus isn't hospitalizing the healthy.

Just very suprised that there was zero national conversation about trying to live a health(ier) lifestyle.

Now the conversation is "losing the COVID 15" lol we are doomed.

78% were OVER WEIGHT and obese. 50.8% were obese and 42% of the US population is obese so this isn’t surprising. You’re not going to stop the pandemic by encouraging obese people to start living healthy.

It’s always a good idea to promote healthy living but that’s a different argument and you know that.


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[ron johnson]

For some reason many people are drawing the wrong conclusion from the fact delta is more infectious. The above is an argument for vaccines, not against vaccines because vaccinated people are:

1) Much less likely to be infected in the first place
2) Much less likely to be hospitalized
3) Much less likely to die

Thanks, but my point was that COVID is here forever. Doesn't matter if you vaccinate 100%.

[ron johnson]

Also, you guys sound like right-wingers with your patriotism schtick.

[The AD]

I can understand why people would prefer not to wear a mask, but I still find it extremely strange how some people actually seem offended that some people prefer to wear masks even if not required.

[uglymoney]

Roughly 1/2 of adult Americans are obese. You can wish away that this isn't our population demographics, but this is the challenge we are presented with.

Edit MU beat me to this obvious point.

Yep. If you count overweight the number is just shy of the 78% of US population over 20. Not nearly the smoking gun it seems to be at first glance. At the stronger end of indicator possibilities taking the 42.5% number of every adult over 20 the obese aren't even 2x as likely to be hospitalized compared to unvaccinated 25x or so.

Also I'm not math guy so I'll let the smart people here correct me if need be. TIA.

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[KQ]

A comment posted to out County Health FB page re: the vax:

When doctor Fauci said during an interview that the vaccine will kill 20% of the vaccinated population, I decided I’d take my chances with a virus that has a 99.98% survival rate. Keep your vaccine to yourself.


I Googled and found this which maybe where this poster got her idea:

Video suggests Dr. Anthony Fauci said vaccines don’t protect against COVID-19.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

I wouldn’t say being in the top six for COVID deaths per 100k is middle of the pack. Disingenuous and misleading Komrade


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[MultiVerse]

Doesn't matter if you vaccinate 100%.

To date, Iceland has had only 1 Covid-19 related death since their vaccination campaign took off. That's with only 71% of the population fully vaccinated (not the claimed 100%) so clearly it does matter.

[ron johnson]

I wouldn’t say being in the top six for COVID deaths per 100k is middle of the pack. Disingenuous and misleading Komrade


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Don't know what you are looking at.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...s-us-by-state/

[skaredshtles]

A comment posted to out County Health FB page re: the vax:

When doctor Fauci said during an interview that the vaccine will kill 20% of the vaccinated population, I decided I’d take my chances with a virus that has a 99.98% survival rate. Keep your vaccine to yourself.


I Googled and found this which maybe where this poster got her idea:

Video suggests Dr. Anthony Fauci said vaccines don’t protect against COVID-19.

Good god people are dumb.

[CarlMega]

^and that's 2017/2018. It's only gotten worse 4 years later. This is the landscape in which the problem exists - like it or not.

Basically, once you run the gauntlet of "not fat" then 'no comorbidities" then "not too old" then "no other risk factors" you whittle it down to there being like 2 US adults in this persona of 'healthy" ppl. And one of them is probably a hard working recent immigrant.

Tongue in cheek, I know but what a joke that narrative is. The reality is US adult "healthy" is like < 10% and the rest of the 90% are overweight or will have some underlying risk or condition that makes them not quite as safe or comfortable as their well cushioned bottoms.

[ron johnson]

To date, Iceland has had only 1 Covid-19 related death since their vaccination campaign took off. That's with only 71% of the population fully vaccinated (not the claimed 100%) so clearly it does matter.

I claimed nearly 100% of the people over 50.

Does your point about 1 death somehow invalidate my claim that COVID is here forever? Iceland is talking about COVID protocols for 15 years: https://english.alarabiya.net/corona...k-for-15-years

[KQ]

I wouldn’t say being in the top six for COVID deaths per 100k is middle of the pack. Disingenuous and misleading Komrade


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What I found was:

CA - 63k (164 per 100)
NY - 53k (279 per 100)
TX - 51k (179 per 100)
FL - 38k (180 per 100)

Total COVID-19 Deaths