To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[SumJongGuy]

On the front page of Seattle news website.


Ugh. Tragic and also newsworthy. Not good for the fence sitters.

https://komonews.com/news/local/king...ohnson-vaccine



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Know what else causes fatal blood clots in women? Birth control pills..

If you have a clotting disorder, find another method/vaccine..
https://www.webmd.com/sex/birth-cont...lood-clot-risk

[jono]

Regarding the "gate"--the study doesn't claim that the viral load between randomly selected vaccinated and unvaccinated people is the same. It claims that in people who test positive the viral load is the same whether the person is vaccinated or not. In the context of the study that is an appropriate question to ask. The authors do not claim that random vaccinated and unvaccinated people are equally like to transmit the virus, only that infected people are. As far as the variability--that is hardly noise. The study shows what it claims to show--that there is no significant difference in the viral loads between vaccinated and unvaccinated people. In both groups the load may be high, intermediate, or low. The message from this one study is that if you are vaccinated and test positive, whether you are symptomatic or not you are potentially infectious and need to isolate.

The most significant confounding factor in the study is the reason asymptomatic people sought testing--exposure to infected person, required for job or travel, some other reason. However, while the reason would influence the chance of testing positive it wouldn't be expected to significantly alter viral load in those who do test positive.

Yes, the results support assuming you're contagious if you test positive (or, at a minimum, do not provide evidence that it is safe not to). But it's going to be cited (as was the Mass study) to support the idea that vaccination doesn't reduce viral load. When in reality the vaccine did reduce viral load by enough to keep some uncounted number of people out of the study entirely. Tracking that in some way would be far more useful right now.

Trading out the qualitative test for a quantitative test or random surveillance would give different results, as they have in other studies. Even just following up after a day or two and checking average loads later on would give something useful--like, how soon can vaccinated people get back into society after a positive test?

[old goat]

Pretty much every conceivable study about covid will be taken the wrong way by somebody. Nothing you can do about that.
Doing a prospective study with followup of infected people to see how long they stay infected would certainly be useful, and much harder and more expensive to do.

[jono]

Pretty much every conceivable study about covid will be taken the wrong way by somebody. Nothing you can do about that.
Doing a prospective study with followup of infected people to see how long they stay infected would certainly be useful, and much harder and more expensive to do.

Do you think it would be a lot more expensive to just follow up with those who test positive two days later? This study shows a result that should be pretty predictable, it seems like, so I'm having trouble understanding why it's being repeated without any way to gather new data.

[AK47bp]

Know what else causes fatal blood clots in women? Birth control pills..

If you have a clotting disorder, find another method/vaccine..
https://www.webmd.com/sex/birth-cont...lood-clot-risk

Not sure what this has to do with anything.

Or is this “whataboutism”?

Where you aware if this women had a previously diagnosed clotting disorder?

Dumb comment.


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[altasnob]

Per Seattle Times she was 37 with no pre-existing conditions. She was also strongly anti-vax and only got vaccinated because she was a home parent at school. First known vaccine induced death in WA. I assume she picked J & J because that seems to be the popular choice of anti-vaxers afraid of the mRNA vaccine.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...-complication/

[jono]

I assume she picked J & J because that seems to be the popular choice of anti-vaxers afraid of the mRNA vaccine.

This. Today's comment for the day "I'd get the J&J if that was the one that got full approval, but I don't understand this DNA mRNA stuff."

[PNWbrit]

Not good for the fence sitters.

Washington has administered at least one dose to 5,151,881 people,

Pretty good odds.

[Salvelinusconfluentus]

Not sure what this has to do with anything.

Or is this “whataboutism”?

Where you aware if this women had a previously diagnosed clotting disorder?

Dumb comment.


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No its not. Blood clots are a well known risk for women who take birth control pills especially as they enter mid to late 30s. Smoking also increases the risk.

Quick Google tells me 1 in 3000 women taking birth control get blood clots each year.

Next Google says 7 in a million get blood clots after the johnson and johnson vax.

Also some people just get blood clots for no known reason.

Super tragic that this lady died, it may or may not have been caused by the vaccine but really shouldn't have a huge bearing on the choice to vax as the risk is extremely low.

[dan_pdx]

No its not. Blood clots are a well known risk for women who take birth control pills especially as they enter mid to late 30s. Smoking also increases the risk.

Quick Google tells me 1 in 3000 women taking birth control get blood clots each year.

Next Google says 7 in a million get blood clots after the johnson and johnson vax.

Also some people just get blood clots for no known reason.

Super tragic that this lady died, it may or may not have been caused by the vaccine but really shouldn't have a huge bearing on the choice to vax as the risk is extremely low.

True - back of envelope math suggests Covid is something like 1000x more likely to be fatal than J&J.

[SumJongGuy]

Not sure what this has to do with anything.

Or is this “whataboutism”?

Where you aware if this women had a previously diagnosed clotting disorder?

Dumb comment.


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See Mountain Girl's comment. Blood clot death is a read herring, pardon the pun.. Lots of things can cause clotting.. Some known, some unknown.. Pick your poison.. I'd avoid JnJ if I knew I had clotting issues. It's been reported before, like 6 months ago..

[AK47bp]

See Mountain Girl's comment. Blood clot death is a read herring, pardon the pun.. Lots of things can cause clotting.. Some known, some unknown.. Pick your poison.. I'd avoid JnJ if I knew I had clotting issues. It's been reported before, like 6 months ago..

I get all that.

Your comments suggest this woman knew she had some kind of blood clotting issues and it’s her fault she still chose J&J and died of clotting.

Or are you suggesting she died from a random blood clot in some kind or terrible coincidence?

We don’t know any of that information.





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[SumJongGuy]

I get all that.

Or are you suggesting she died from a random blood clot in some kind or terrible coincidence?

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That. As for clotting disorders. My wife has one. We intentionally avoided JnJ for her. I was about to get it myself though when it got halted for .... clotting risk... Just another reason we need universal healthcare. Everybody gets to go to the doctor regularly and way more folks would know if they are diabetic, hypertensive,.. or have a clotting disorder..

[bodywhomper]

Back to vaccine types and methods of administration. Nasal would be good given cuz the main (only?) method of infection, right? And that result in more antibodies hanging out in the circulatory area of the nasal area for longer? Is that known to occur? Is it similar with the nasal flu vax?

I’ve heard Slavitt talk about the oral vax concept for months and possibly the best method for administration.

What about anal? I think there’s a school board candidate in TX who’d prefer that method. Probably some everywhere.

What if the oral is mixed with some sort of fun drug? maybe more takers?

With polio, the oral versus injection vax are very different and offer different levels of immunity, if I remember correctly.

[Kinnikinnick]

Someone died in Washington state!!!! FROM the vaccine!!!!!! 6 months in thats like 2 a year!

Hell there’s only been 7900 deaths from covid in WA!!! It’ll only be another 7900/2 = 3950 more years until the level of deaths are the same!!


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[AK47bp]

You guys get so emotional.

The point of the article I posted was that it was front page news in Seattle and it may persuade some fence sitters to not get the vaccine.

Anyone with half a brain knows there’s a greater chance of getting killed by lightning than from a vaccine so let’s not belabor that point.

Mmmkay


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[Adolf Allerbush]

You guys get so emotional.

The point of the article I posted was that it was front page news in Seattle and it may persuade some fence sitters to not get the vaccine.

Anyone with half a brain knows there’s a greater chance of getting killed by lightning than from a vaccine so let’s not belabor that point.

Mmmkay


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That's what I took from it. It's human nature...and if you're not very thoughtful you're going to look at that and think "oh shit! someone died, i'm not getting vaccinated!"

[altasnob]

The story is on front page of Seattle Times, Oregonian, CNN right now. I think the media is doing an excellent job of handling stories like this. It is news, so they have to report it. But in the story they emphasize how rare it is for someone to die of thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS). As of Sept. 22, more than 14.8 million doses J&J and only 47 confirmed cases of TTS. There have been two confirmed cases of TTS with Moderna as well. Oregonian has her photo. Jesuit and OSU grad. AK is right, that the idiots will grab a hold of this, unfortunately.

[Mofro261]

You guys get so emotional.


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Right in my hood actually, this was making the gossip rounds over the last 2 weeks per the Mrs.

Her kids are at the local parochial K-8 that mine went to back when they were K-8, which has a vax requirement to volunteer in the classroom. She was antivax as are her parents, and went for JJ because? It's still pretty tragic leaving a 3 and 5 yro behind. Believe I heard her husband vaxxed up and will be doing the volunteering now.

[Mazderati]

Here is the ASH commentary on TTS. I was familiar with thromboses and thrombocytopenia but not TTS. Which seems like a contradiction in itself.

https://www.hematology.org/covid-19/...rombocytopenia

[old goat]

Do you think it would be a lot more expensive to just follow up with those who test positive two days later? This study shows a result that should be pretty predictable, it seems like, so I'm having trouble understanding why it's being repeated without any way to gather new data.

The study we're talking about is a retrospective database study--IOW free. You get a resident or two to go through the database and set up a spread sheet, the university salaried statistician crunches the numbers when they get around to it (competition for the statistician's time is significant), one of said residents writes it up. Following up would mean a much more involved process with the institutional review board to get the study approved, contacting every positive on the day their test is reported and getting their informed consent to be retested however many days after the original positive test, which isn't routinely done. Much more manpower intensive--you probably need to hire a full time person to run the study and you'd have to pay for the extra tests. That doesn't mean it shouldn't be done, but in general database/chart review types of studies do give some useful information for essentially no cost, no fuss, no bother, so more of them tend to be done.

Per Seattle Times she was 37 with no pre-existing conditions. She was also strongly anti-vax and only got vaccinated because she was a home parent at school. First known vaccine induced death in WA. I assume she picked J & J because that seems to be the popular choice of anti-vaxers afraid of the mRNA vaccine.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...-complication/

So the media have reported 100% of J and J blood clot deaths in WA, and a (much much) smaller percent of Covid deaths. It does give a skewed perspective, doesn't it. But man bites dog makes the papers.

[Bunion 2020]

Sorry. Been working all day, 5 pages later.

"The Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine continues to be 90 percent effective in protecting against hospitalization and death from covid-19 up to six months after the second dose, even in the face of the widespread delta variant, a major study has found. "

Yeah I saw the 47% drop in infection protection.

I am of the opinion that we will end up learning to live with Covid and not dying or becoming seriously ill is my benchmark.

In the past 2 weeks I have been face to face with folks who later tested positive for C-19. The exposures were outdoors and from a 5+' distance. I plan to boost when the time comes and that is still a way out.

[jerlane]

Had my booster last Friday. Mildly sore arm over the weekend. About the same as shot #1. 6G reception is coming in strong, though.

[skiJ]

( old goat ) -

I believe you are overestimating the amount of work that is going into some of these database studies -

the reports I read over the weekend regarding Possible adverse cardiac events, trying to associate possible myocarditis involved no follow-up.
they were Only statistical assessment of datapoint collection -

the Only One single case of myocarditis reported was in a male, grouped ages 12 -39 -


we've got one doing a postDoc. PhD in Epidemiology ( in the midwest ) right now, and

her work to-date in the PhD program has involved literature review and data reassessment
( there was field work in the previous eight years and the previous 25years ( Thank you, 4H. And the universities... ) )


my point ? Some of this 'science' is Very loose.

Much of this data is entered electronically, and
If you have access to the database, it is just a matter of entering the parameters to be tagged, and then running the data through the computer to generate the statistics !

and you know all of this - and were just reminiscing for the days when data collection was done 'by-hand'
( I remember those days... ) --


I can see two 'reasons' why someone might choose J&J - especially if they were opposed to covid vaccination -

J&J is a 'viral vector' product ; it is not a mRNA product ; And

it was a single-dose vaccination.

in every case, it is tragic for her Family, and it is premature for me to see anything that would dismiss or minimize that loss.

( in 2021, I cannot imagine losing a parent as a five year old or a three year old ( to a vaccination reaction ) -

Awful. )


respectfully. tj

[The SnowShow]

From everything I've read and heard, they're thinking right around Halloween. I think the chance of your kid being fully vaccinated by Thanksgiving is a stretch, but one shot, most likely.

I thought I heard it would only be one shot? Did I misunderstand and it’s two shots, each lower dose than the adult?