To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[GoldMember]

How fucked?

A Biological Fukushima...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2BT30P

[seano732]

They are in a spiking uptrend in their epi curve and their ICU status looks like this:

Attachment 370727

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56424611

If you've read how bat it has been in South Africa, which had it worse than Italy last year, it's just frightening and depressing especially when I think about those bedside providers who will work themselves to death while having to offer lesser care to their patients and deny care to other patients because there isn't capacity.

3 people are dying every minute of COVID in Brazil but they are nowhere near the top of the death curve. It will get much worse before it gets better. That scenario is exactly what COVID restrictions were meant to prevent, overwhelming the health system and the 2nd and 3rd order effects that result (eg interfering with care of non-COVID patients, avoidance of care, economic disruption and costs, pain, misery, disability, death, fear, and tragedy.

Yesterday I made a huge argument against upping some COVID mitigation restrictions based on the ability of regional healthcare capacity in an environment where most of the most vulnerable are vaccinated.

In Brazil, they could go back to a severe "lockdown" restrictions, and it wouldn't be enough to stop it from getting worse vs now, but they could prevent it from being as bad as will end up being without further restrictions.

A Biological Fukushima...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2BT30P

Well that's not fucking good......

[Ted Striker]

Seattle Times: COVID herd immunity? Parts of Washington state appear in no mood to join this herd

...start driving east from Seattle for a few hours, you can find vaccine easily and readily available

[Mofro261]

Seattle Times: COVID herd immunity? Parts of Washington state appear in no mood to join this herd

...start driving east from Seattle for a few hours, you can find vaccine easily and readily available

Availibility driven by decline of the vaccine acceptance with the strongest correlation being who you voted for is a little depressing.

[GoldMember]

Seattle Times: COVID herd immunity? Parts of Washington state appear in no mood to join this herd

...start driving east from Seattle for a few hours, you can find vaccine easily and readily available

Hmmm....reached the limit of free articles for the Seattle Times, couldn't read it.

[The AD]

The Brazil thing reminds of something I've been seeing more and more of lately, namely people saying the whole "ICU beds are full" thing isn't really as important as they're making it out to be, because only a portion of those ICU beds are occupied by people with COVID. Personally I don't see what difference that makes. The beds are all taken. That's what matters.

[Mofro261]

Let's try it this way. The following are all facts:

- I'm not anti-vax. I've never voted for Trump. My wife is pregnant. Her doctor said she could get the Janssen vaccine. We wear masks, socially distance, wash hands.
- None of the current vaccines have full FDA approval.
- None of the vaccines have completed phase 3 trials.
- They were invented last year and rushed to market, there are no long term studies on the vaccines.
- Last week, the Emergent lab making the Janssen vaccine had to dump 15,000,000 doses because they screwed up ingredients, in a lab that is not approved by the FDA.
- Emergent has been cited repeatedly by the Food and Drug Administration for problems such as poorly trained employees, cracked vials and mold in facilities.
- As of right now, CDC's website reports 554,420 deaths in USA from Covid-19 and 30,596,830 confirmed cases (excluding my family of 3 and who knows how many others). 1.81% of confirmed covid cases have died.
- In my 30-39 age bracket in the US, there have been 5,683 deaths, 1.06% of covid deaths nationwide have been in my demographic. Of confirmed cases, someone 30-39 years old has died 0.00018% of the time.

I intend to get vaccinated at some point. That point may be tomorrow, or it may be in a month or 6. Besides media-induced panic (which is all ran and controlled by high risk baby boomers, who should get vaxxed asap), I believe I don't need to rush this decision.

First off, there is no FDA "Light" vs. "Full Approval". There is EUA approval that doesn't end UNTIL the Emergency declaration is lifted, and then there is traditional appoval for non-emergency use. Meaning, none of the vaccines approved under EUA will convert to NON-EUA approval because of more or further completed data analysis, the phase I/II And III trials reached end points for safety and efficacy prior to being granted EUA. It is just a fact that they will need to seek a traditonal 510K approval with re-submission of the same data, to continue there use in the absence of a declared emergency which for COVID-19 we have no defined end yet on the horizon. What I'm saying is if you are waiting for "full" FDA approval, then be prepared to wait a really long fucking time.

Next- the JJ vaccine. Is not RNA.

Nope, it's a double stranded DNA replication incompetent adenovirus with the Sars2 Spike gene inserted into it, which needs to get to the nucleus where that DNA is transcribed into RNA which then gets transported back to the cytoplasm for generation of the SCoV2 Spike protein. So if long term complication mean "does this genetic material inegrate into my chromosomes" the chance of that happening for RNA are zero and for DNA lets just leave it at, potentially more than zero.

Regardless, both platforms have been explored by vaccinologists in animals and in some cases people for diseases like TB, malaria, HIV, and then Ebola, Zika, etc since the early 2000's. None has made it into the vaccine stream as yet under non-EUA, but outside of Pneumococcal and HPV there haven't been any/many other new vaccines approved in the time frame with standard FDA approval.

[Benny Profane]

Brazil is really fucked, because it looks like Bolsonaro (an even nastier Tump without any of the charm) is prepping for a military coup in the middle of this.

[chaka]

Hmmm....reached the limit of free articles for the Seattle Times, couldn't read it.

Ever since early February, when some software volunteers debuted a website to help the public find COVID-19 vaccine appointments, they’ve had a unique window into the ebb and flow of what one engineer there dubbed “the spice.”

Who wants the vaccines, and who doesn’t? Where in the state are the shots snapped right up, and where are they left wanting?

They noticed one major trend right from the start.

“Once you start driving east from Seattle, for a few hours, you can find vaccine easily and readily available,” says Jessica Chong, a University of Washington assistant professor of genetics who is volunteering as a data scientist for the WA COVID Vaccine Finder, at covidwa.com.

This regional disparity in vaccine thirst was a curiosity at first, but now has become cause for concern.

“Tri-Citians slower than others to get the COVID vaccine,” the Herald newspaper reported this week. Thousands of vaccine appointments are available there, and most days the mass vaccination site at the Benton County fairgrounds hasn’t been able to fill all its slots.

“There seems to have been some reluctancy in a lot of citizens to be vaccinated,” the Pasco mayor said in that story.

State data spells it out. The 10 counties with the lowest vaccination rates have all seen 22% or fewer of their residents get the first shot so far — with nine of those 10 being red counties east of the Cascades.

That compares to 31% of the entire state starting the vaccination shots. One county — Jefferson, home of Port Townsend, on Puget Sound — has crossed over the 50% vaccinated threshold. King County sits slightly above the state average at 34%, according to state data as of April 3.

Why does this matter? Because public health officials say to reach herd immunity, to the point that life could return to a semblance of normal, 70% to 80% of state residents need to be immune. Unless you live in Jefferson County or the San Juan Islands (where 47% have gotten at least one shot), we are a looong way from reaching the herd goal.

In Eastern Washington in particular, segments of society appear to be in no mood to be a part of any herd.

“Government can kiss my ass,” posted the Franklin County Republican Central Committee, on the topic of getting vaccinated. This was on the official Facebook page of the county’s GOP organization! Franklin is in the Tri-Cities area; it’s probably not coincidental that it has the third worst vaccination rate in the state, at 18.7% (lower are Garfield County, at 18.5%, and Stevens County north of Spokane, at 17.3%).

Chelan County, in Central Washington, has a 39.5% vaccination rate, defying the general east-west trend.

Chong, the covidwa.com data scientist, said there are many reasons counties could have varied vaccination rates, such as age demographics, language barriers and driving distance to vaccination sites. But with appointments going unused in more rural counties, it can’t be vaccine scarcity anymore.

“This has been studied, though,” she added. “The No. 1 correlating factor for whether you’ll get the vaccine is whether you voted for Trump.”

Recent polls have indeed shown that nearly half of Republican men don’t intend to get the vaccine (GOP-voting women were more open to it). That could be simply resistance to a government program, or it could be part of a sentiment among many Republicans that the coronavirus was exaggerated, or even hyped to bring down former President Donald Trump.

A new survey for the Economist found that among these “vaccine rejecters,” more continue to trust Trump for sound medical advice than trust the CDC or Dr. Anthony Fauci. Trump did get vaccinated himself in January, but a majority of GOP voters told pollsters they hadn’t heard about that (nearly twice as many had heard the news about the Dr. Seuss books being pulled).

Vaccine skepticism is also one of those issues where the far right sometimes meets the far left, over on the back side. So getting all the way to 80% could be a stretch for any part of Washington state, red or blue.

“Without vaccine hesitancy, we’d be in really good shape,” Carl Bergstrom, a UW evolutionary biologist, said in a commentary the other day on herd immunity. “With vaccine hesitancy, it could be close here in the U.S. I’m hoping that much of the hesitancy we see is really more like … vaccine deliberation.”

Hope so, too. It’s perfectly understandable that people would be leery, or in “wait and see” mode. The data cited above suggests something else may be going on, though — something familiar and cultural that’s plagued us with the coronavirus from the start. Which is that America may just be too tribal and rebellious to get to where 80% of us ever agree to do anything.

It was nearly a year ago — and about 500,000 national deaths ago — that Clint Didier, Franklin County commissioner and local GOP chairman, suggested we go for herd immunity the old-fashioned way. “We can take care of this virus by letting the people catch it,” he said.

Even with a medicine now available, it seems like in some quarters that’s still the plan.

Danny Westneat: dwestneat@seattletimes.com; Danny Westneat takes an opinionated look at the Puget Sound region's news, people and politics.

[DJSapp]

A few thoughts on those that are vax hesitant:

1. Back in January, wasn't the number 50% of folks were hesitant? Now it's 25%, only 4 months later? Keep vaccinating the willing, time and more peer pressure will keep the numbers rising.

2. Once vaccines are widespread and readily available, what will happen to those holding out when the Feds say they're not going to reimburse hospitals for covid treatment anymore, and hospitals start billing patients? Oh, now all those folks that are hesitant to get a shot will come running because their fallback plan of getting hospitalized and getting stuck with a massive bill are now very, very, real. Or maybe all these anti-science, anti-vax folks might just win a Darwin award group prize.

3. I really, really struggle to understand how people can rationalize their life choices. Beer, whiskey, tobacco, weed, coke, mushrooms, acid? Sure stranger, I'll take a double and party down. A vaccine that only went through a phase III trial with 50,000 participants and is now rolling in millions of other people? Hard no, my body is a temple and can't have that until it's proven safe. Fuck you, shitbird.

[XXX-er]

I read that artical or one like it ^^ find a place that voted overwhelmingly trump and there will be unused vax

570k to 337k dead, but with the strong vax program I wonder when Brazil will take over from the USA being the country most affected by covid ?

[wooley12]

Hmmm....reached the limit of free articles for the Seattle Times, couldn't read it.

The article said to me that in the areas of the state with giant Trump 2020 signs that the people's brain chemistry has been so deeply altered by years of daily lies, fear and hate propaganda that it is actually physically painful for some to wear a mask or vax. I know them and that is what I've seen personally in my encounters. So now what do we do? I'm still wearing my "Das Dicke Ende Kommt Noch" mask. "The worst is yet to come".

[Harry]

Being vaccinated is such an emotional relief. I am now 1.5 weeks out from Pfizer #2 and I am feeling really good mentally. This past year was brutal. Quit my job as unofficial mayor because I was tired of breaking up fistfights over mask, my Mom went off the deep end, I had to move from my ultra-pimp ski palace back to flatland USA. Covid really messed up my life’s plans.

I’m still wearing a mask, washing my hands, social distancing. But goddamn what a relief to have both shots in me. Today is a nice spring day, I had to drive Mom down to Eau Claire for a medical procedure, I’m sitting in a park next to the university, birds are chirping, skateboarders are zipping around, some students are playing hacky sack on the lawn, a lower middle class milf with 3 crib midgets is wearing yoga pants. Feels soooo good to be alive. Emotionally I have not felt this good in a long, long time.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[Danno]

"crib midgets", lol

[John_B]

"crib midgets", lol

That one is getting added to my vocabulary.

[riser4]

Brazil is really fucked, because it looks like Bolsonaro (an even nastier Tump without any of the charm) is prepping for a military coup in the middle of this.

I have colleagues in Brazil and they don't talk about it so I don't ask.

[summit]

The Brazil thing reminds of something I've been seeing more and more of lately, namely people saying the whole "ICU beds are full" thing isn't really as important as they're making it out to be, because only a portion of those ICU beds are occupied by people with COVID. Personally I don't see what difference that makes. The beds are all taken. That's what matters.

THere's a lot of fuckery with ICU bed numbers. I could put all the variable out there but lets say the actual number of beds that can be occupied with adequate care given to patients is lower than the reported total number of beds primarily due to staffing and "surge beds."

[Lostintime]

My observations from my part of Vt. Far right conservatives anti-mask, but willing to get vaccine. Far left progressives, willing to mask, don't trust vaccine. Young people, anti-mask feel like they are protected and if they get it, it won't be bad. Most in the middle, right and left, are willing to mask and get vaccinated. On the other hand, the only appointment I could find within two weeks when I signed up were in Franklin Co, a republican leaning county.
Got the J&J yesterday in St Albans, no side effects whatsoever. Didn't know what vaccine I had signed up for and feel like I jumped the line by getting a single dose vaccine. Made me wonder if the state was distributing the single dose vaccine in areas where they thought people might not return for second shots, particularly if they had side effects to shot 1.

[RootSkier]

Made me wonder if the state was distributing the single dose vaccine in areas where they thought people might not return for second shots, particularly if they had side effects to shot 1.

I think lots of places are holding J&J for this population, which includes homeless, undocumented, etc. And it makes perfect sense.

[riser4]

I live in Franklin Cty. I've had Pfizer shot number 1. Can't wait until shot number 2. I am very left and pro vaxx. So left vs right is about as useful as BMI for judging an individual. I score -10, -8 on the political compass. I don't know if we have enough info about your assessment regarding J&J. Where did you get your shot?

[funkendrenchman]

Let's try it this way. The following are all facts:

- I'm not anti-vax. I've never voted for Trump. My wife is pregnant. Her doctor said she could get the Janssen vaccine. We wear masks, socially distance, wash hands.
- None of the current vaccines have full FDA approval.
- None of the vaccines have completed phase 3 trials.
- They were invented last year and rushed to market, there are no long term studies on the vaccines.
- Last week, the Emergent lab making the Janssen vaccine had to dump 15,000,000 doses because they screwed up ingredients, in a lab that is not approved by the FDA.
- Emergent has been cited repeatedly by the Food and Drug Administration for problems such as poorly trained employees, cracked vials and mold in facilities.
- As of right now, CDC's website reports 554,420 deaths in USA from Covid-19 and 30,596,830 confirmed cases (excluding my family of 3 and who knows how many others). 1.81% of confirmed covid cases have died.
- In my 30-39 age bracket in the US, there have been 5,683 deaths, 1.06% of covid deaths nationwide have been in my demographic. Of confirmed cases, someone 30-39 years old has died 0.00018% of the time.

I intend to get vaccinated at some point. That point may be tomorrow, or it may be in a month or 6. Besides media-induced panic (which is all ran and controlled by high risk baby boomers, who should get vaxxed asap), I believe I don't need to rush this decision.

You're thinking about it too much.

[GoldMember]

Thanks Chaka. Pretty much says what I expected. I would only point out that those folks in E WA who aren't getting the vax aren't doing it because of Trump (although he contributed mightily) but Trump happened because of them. The overall distrust of government and the fear of government interference in their lives wasn't initially caused by Trump. Trump happened because of them. Trump just gave them a vocal validation for their fear.

[Lostintime]

I live in Franklin Cty. I've had Pfizer shot number 1. Can't wait until shot number 2. I am very left and pro vaxx. So left vs right is about as useful as BMI for judging an individual. I score -10, -8 on the political compass. I don't know if we have enough info about your assessment regarding J&J. Where did you get your shot?

Percy Collins sportsplex St Albans. I agree with your assessment of Vermonters, they don't follow the rules of the political trends as much as the rest of the country when it comes to covid. My anecdotal sample group is made up of maybe 200 people. The couple of libertarians I know are anti everything. Just my observations FWIW. The anti-maskers seem to be people who have read studies posted here, but read the findings as they see fit. One example, the study comparing N95 masks vs cloth masks in a clinical environment. No where does that study say cloth masks are useless, just that they are not to be used in a clinical envronment. Big difference.

[riser4]

Didn't know the complex had switch ed to J&J. I think some of that may be due to supply an that's what they got now. My wife got Pfizer there in January as part of medical field workers (LCMHC with clients that had legit reasons for not doing telehealth so I am glad she got it). My Pfizer jab was at a temp location downtown Saint Albans. The hospital haas taken over part of a floor in the new CCV building for their vaccine clinic.

[Lostintime]

I think most people here in VT, are willing to do just about anything to crush this and move on with some normalcy, although I think there will never be the old normal. One positive note, I think we'll see a decline in workers going to work sick.