To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[ill-advised strategy]

Wife’s bff is career natl guard. Apparently 2 of her unit have recently died of the rona and they’re all still super aggro antivax, storm the capital, freedom q-anon blahblahblah

[MTT]

Wife’s bff is career natl guard. Apparently 2 of her unit have recently died of the rona and they’re all still super aggro antivax, storm the capital, freedom q-anon blahblahblah

Cop for a day job?

[riser4]

Wife’s bff is career natl guard. Apparently 2 of her unit have recently died of the rona and they’re all still super aggro antivax, storm the capital, freedom q-anon blahblahblah

Holy. Fucking. Shit. Please let me wake up from this nightmare. I want it to be over.

[LongShortLong]

Everytime there is an uptick in new cases in my area there are lots of comments of “someone must have brought this in from elsewhere”.

The desire to blame it on outsiders is on a hair trigger for a lot of vocal people. They continually fail to comment on the fact that even if that were true the virus is spreading through locals due to lack of adherence to measures meant to prevent its spread.

So much easier for them to blame someone foreign than to look at their own failings and recognize their own roles in this situation.

Kinda like Texas and Florida when their “everything is great!” arguments fall flat - step 2 is to then say “well ok we are not great - but we are not great because of immigrants”

I've been thinking about that. It's mostly , but I surprised myself and found some truth to it.
If there were a place with otherwise low Covid suffering from filthy visitors, those filthy visitors would probably produce only a small additional case burden. Probably...

Here goes. Say my area (Us-metro, where we are all better than average) has an effective R of 0.5. Every week we have half as many cases. If there were no visitors/immigrants/workers/snowboarders, Covid would die out to zero pretty fast. Our population is say 1 million.

Another area outside our holier than thou region, Them-town, they worship Covid and maintain 100 daily cases per 100k (Florida for example). They send us 10,000 unique filthy visitors every day, who each mingle and despite our precautions transmit disease to one of us. We hate them, it's us against them.

So, every day we get about 10 new cases (100/100k * 10,000 visitors), 70 per week. Further, they gave us 70 imported cases last week, that produced about 35 native cases (from R = 0.5), and about 17.5 native cases from two week old imports, ... etc. This adds up to about 140 cases, or 20 per day. Because of them, we suffer an additional 2 cases per 100k per day. Damn them!

When I look at the US Covid map, I don't see a single state like Us-metro. R appears to be well above 0.5 everywhere. Every single state has more than 10 daily cases per 100k.
.

Taking NYC as a real example. Population 8M. 66M annual visitors / 365 is about 200k/day (pre-pandemic). If all those visitors came from Florida, using the same assumptions as above, NYC might suffer an additional 5 daily cases per 100k.

But, but, but... If we assume NYC's R is 0.9, then cases would still be dropping to 0, just not as fast as when R is 0.5. Now, the multiplier on imported cases becomes 10 instead of 2. Then, imported cases plus the cases traced prior weeks' imports could account for all 25/100k of NYC's cases. Note that R = 0.9 is good enough to hold any gains from a prior lockdown, and slowly reduce cases. It is not enough against imported cases in this scenario. This scenario has a bunch of assumptions. Actual travel is somewhat lower. Most origin case rates are lower. Though a visitor might infect more than 1 of us. The real world doesn't map cleanly to a model.

Huh... Maybe in some regions it is disproportionately "their" fault.

[Skidog]

Wife’s bff is career natl guard. Apparently 2 of her unit have recently died of the rona and they’re all still super aggro antivax, storm the capital, freedom q-anon blahblahblah

Well, let me ask this. How do you feel about the fact that possibly the majority of the "boots on the ground" military feels this way? They defend your freedom daily, yet you dislike their personal choices. Should we determine political, or personal feelings when taking in new recruits?

I don't get the hesitancy either..it's there though in places you may have never imagined. Good friends, coworkers, first responders, nurses, doctors, and on and on...I'm not a person to cut anyone off for what I believe is still a choice..I can think it's stupid personally, doesn't mean it's always wrong.

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[ill-advised strategy]

Cop for a day job?

I don’t totally understand her job, but her regular Army background and Afghanistan deployment was with a Military Police unit, and now, to the best of my understanding, she’s some kind of administrator or HR or something office-y full-time for the natl guard.

[Kinnikinnick]

.

[ill-advised strategy]

Well, let me ask this. How do you feel about the fact that possibly the majority of the "boots on the ground" military feels this way? They defend your freedom daily, yet you dislike their personal choices. Should we determine political, or personal feelings when taking in new recruits?

I don't get the hesitancy either..it's there though in places you may have never imagined. Good friends, coworkers, first responders, nurses, doctors, and on and on...I'm not a person to cut anyone off for what I believe is still a choice..I can think it's stupid personally, doesn't mean it's always wrong.

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Um, it makes me nervous.

What makes me the most nervous is that an effective military stays out of politics, but if our friend’s assessments are accurate, politics are becoming forefront in that culture.

[ill-advised strategy]

Test


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FAIL!

[Kinnikinnick]

Simple math problem. Can you pass?

Choose one:

A) get covid and .68% chance of death.
B) get vaccinated and 0.00082% chance of dying from vaccine.

https://covid-101.org/science/whats-...-get-covid-19/

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34055843/



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[Kinnikinnick]

FAIL!

It succeeded


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[SumJongGuy]

Yeah this is about right. First lockdowns with covid classic unexpectedly gave us elimination. Everyone was surprised and happy, because the aim was suppression (flatten the curve was big here too). NZ did the same thing. We all talked about covid-zero and went outside and lived almost normally.

Lockdowns now are about slowing the spread of Delta until we hit 70%, then 80%+ vaccinated of 16+. 12-15 in the mix now too. Meanwhile lockdown pushes the reff down so the caseload doubles roughly every 11ish days rather than every 2-3. That way hospitals can hopefully handle the surge until most everyone's double jabbed.

All along the lockdowns were to slow the flow of cases to the hospitals so they can hopefully keep up. Pre vaccines and good masks available for everyone it was more crucial for everyone to stay home full time. With those two tools now available to all we SHOULD be good. Except 30 percent of US adults are behaving like toddlers, including some military and law enforcement.. TODDLERS! Did you see them mocking that student talking about their dead grandparent at the school board meeting ?? Grown assed adults acting like petulant children.. That's all this is..

Um, it makes me nervous.

What makes me the most nervous is that an effective military stays out of politics, but if our friend’s assessments are accurate, politics are becoming forefront in that culture.

I was honestly wondering what side they would take when finally responding Jan 6th. Another test coming up later this month. With The Capital barricaded off, I'm betting they make a run at The White House this time. Let's hope the military proves loyal to the current administration and Constitution again if they do..

[Skidog]

Um, it makes me nervous.

What makes me the most nervous is that an effective military stays out of politics, but if our friend’s assessments are accurate, politics are becoming forefront in that culture.

Thanks for an answer that didn't head towards anger.

I agree it's scary, but I find myself asking, why does nearly 50% of the population feel this way? I can't blame one man, this anger existed way before that. I can't blame stupid, because I know people that are otherwise very smart not getting vaxxed...what the fuck happened?

What a shitshow.

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[skaredshtles]

Should we determine political, or personal feelings when taking in new recruits?

You know... if these political and "personal feelings" involve insurrection, you're goddam right we should not allow them to be in military service.

[Skidog]

I was honestly wondering what side they would take when finally responding Jan 6th. Another test coming up later this month. With The Capital barricaded off, I'm betting they make a run at The White House this time. Let's hope the military proves loyal to the current administration and Constitution again if they do..

This is another thing I ponder. The us military isn't supposed to be active on US soil, especially towards its own people. How many of these "dissenters" wouldn't flip to the "rebellion"? How many that stayed could actually shoot another American? Civil war had relatives against relatives, I hope it never comes to that.


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[old goat]

Well, let me ask this. How do you feel about the fact that possibly the majority of the "boots on the ground" military feels this way? They defend your freedom daily, yet you dislike their personal choices. Should we determine political, or personal feelings when taking in new recruits?

I don't get the hesitancy either..it's there though in places you may have never imagined. Good friends, coworkers, first responders, nurses, doctors, and on and on...I'm not a person to cut anyone off for what I believe is still a choice..I can think it's stupid personally, doesn't mean it's always wrong.

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Personal choice? Getting a tattoo is a personal choice. Getting a vaccine to control a pandemic is not. After all these pages and you still don't get the idea that your freedom, your rights do not allow you to harm you fellow man. Not harming your fellow man is the bare minimum requirement for living in a free society. Besides which when you sign up for the military you agree to do what you're told. And if a soldier is sick in bed with Covid they are not defending my freedom.

Before the CIC mandated vaccines one member of my kid's Special Ops Surgical Team (AF) wasn't vaccinated. The others convinced him on the basis that since they were expected to go everywhere and do everything as a team, if one wasn't vaccinated they all would find themselves restricted any time there was a vaccine requirement to do something or be somewhere--a completely hypothetical situation at the time but it worked.

[twat]

With the info from TRG. i am 3 to 7days ahead of the austrian media or politicians.
I constantly laugh about them and how slow they area compared to this thread.

[ill-advised strategy]

I’m left with a familiar ambient unease that reminds me of being a guero in Taos and a gentile in Utah. Like, it’s mostly no big deal, and 99.99% ok, but sometimes there’s an exceptional situation that reveals an underlying local zeitgeist where I was The Unwelcome Other… And again, that’s all well and good until some shit hits the fan and suddenly you’re in the former Yugoslavia on the losing side of the ethnic cleansing.

That’s the sensation I get when I’m forced to reckon with the supposition that the vast majority of police and military are generally repulsed by my politics...as this past couple years of election/pandemic/civil unrest has revealed. I have a feeling of potential for disaster. So yeah, tidbits about the virulence of the antivax/racism/militia sympathies in law enforcement and the military give me a layer of nervousness I find difficult to shake off.

[ex-powderbroker]

Thanks for an answer that didn't head towards anger.

I agree it's scary, but I find myself asking, why does nearly 50% of the population feel this way? I can't blame one man, this anger existed way before that. I can't blame stupid, because I know people that are otherwise very smart not getting vaxxed...what the fuck happened?

What a shitshow.

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do you mean that fifty percent oppose the mandate or that we are fifty percent vax hesitant? obviously the latter is incorrect if we are 60ish percent vaccinated and i haven’t seen anything on the former.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Well, let me ask this. How do you feel about the fact that possibly the majority of the "boots on the ground" military feels this way? They defend your freedom daily, yet you dislike their personal choices. Should we determine political, or personal feelings when taking in new recruits?

I don't get the hesitancy either..it's there though in places you may have never imagined. Good friends, coworkers, first responders, nurses, doctors, and on and on...I'm not a person to cut anyone off for what I believe is still a choice..I can think it's stupid personally, doesn't mean it's always wrong.

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It’s not a choice in the military. You sign a contract and swear an oath. You’re basically government property. I had to get the anthrax vaccine before it had eua. Kids are fucking soft


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[ill-advised strategy]

Better branding on that one though

[muted reborn]

Who will be the first metal band to call themselves COVID 19?

[riser4]

Better branding on that one though

Only one of the big four worth listening to.

[ill-advised strategy]

Who will be the first metal band to call themselves COVID 19?

Um
Logic says…
Covid 19.

[Skidog]

do you mean that fifty percent oppose the mandate or that we are fifty percent vax hesitant? obviously the latter is incorrect if we are 60ish percent vaccinated and i haven’t seen anything on the former.

No 50% lean with the anti vax sentiment. I'm sptiballing. Many will take the vax to keep their jobs. That likely doesn't change their feelings. I could be way off base, just seems that way.

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