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  1. #6876
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
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    On Vacation for the Duration
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    14,175
    Washington State recommends masks for all when indoors. 100 people at the Kroger today. Me and about 5 others had asks on.

  2. #6877
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Missoula
    Posts
    232
    Quote Originally Posted by k2skier112 View Post
    You're a fucking moronic partisan hack
    Never been called that before. There are things on that list from both the right and the left and the purpose was to demonstrate that both sides like to restrict freedom and think their restrictions are the "correct" ones. Which ones triggered you so much to call me that? Was it the gun one? Maybe education? As least I assume we agree that anybody should be able to get an abortion, smoke weed, and buy booze on any day of the week. BTW I've voted D in every election since I could vote.

  3. #6878
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    EWA
    Posts
    20,573
    Quote Originally Posted by wooley12 View Post
    Washington State recommends masks for all when indoors. 100 people at the Kroger today. Me and about 5 others had asks on.
    Last week I was one of a handful wearing a mask at the grocery store. When I went to the grocery store on Tuesday I was seeing a lot more masks.

    As of yesterday we have 257 cases with 12 in the hospital here in W2
    When you see something that is not right, not just, not fair, you have a moral obligation to say something. To do something." Rep. John Lewis


    Kindness is a bridge between all people

    Dunkin’ Donuts Worker Dances With Customer Who Has Autism

  4. #6879
    Join Date
    Aug 2019
    Posts
    1,083
    Quote Originally Posted by The AD View Post
    What are we supposed to take away from this chart? If mask use is "almost nonexistent" in both of these countries, how are we supposed to glean anything from comparing the two countries? Maybe you need to throw in a country with high mask usage if you want to show mask usage is ineffective. Flu rates vary from year to year. You're going to need a whole lot better data than this to in any way prove that masks haven't help reduce the flu.
    What are you talking about? The claim is that flu is down because people are wearing masks. I present two countries that aren't wearing masks and have flu down to zero.

    We aren't comparing the two countries. We are comparing them to the rest of the world.

    I'd love to see the mental gymnastics required to try to argue that masks weren't the reason flu is down to nothing in Sweden and Norway, but masks are the reason flu is down everywhere else.

  5. #6880
    Join Date
    Aug 2019
    Posts
    1,083
    Quote Originally Posted by ml242 View Post
    It looks an awful lot like the average flu season chart given by the CDC:

    Folks, it appears ml242 misread a graph. Nothing he ever posts here going forward has any value.

    (graph is from June 2019-April 2021. There is zero flu for the entirety of 20/21 flu season.)

  6. #6881
    Join Date
    Aug 2019
    Posts
    1,083
    Quote Originally Posted by RoooR View Post
    You guys aren't going to be able to prove anything with flu season with a bunch of directional charts. You'd need a multivariate regression and even then it's gonna be tough. Was it masks? Was it lock-downs? Was it people not wanting to go out? Was it a less virulent strain of the flu? Was it people washing their hands more? Was it people with the flu being more reluctant to goto the hospital due to COVID fears?

    2017-2018 was the worst flu season I've seen since I've been in health insurance. and even at it's peak the Inpatient hospital admissions were about 25% what COVID peaked at.
    2018-2019 was normal. About 40% the level of 2017-2018.
    2019-2020 started normal then dropped to about 40% of normal in March (see above)
    2020-2021 About 50% of normal. (see above)

    For a 65+ person admitted with the Flu the average hospital stay is about 5.25 days. For COVID it's over 9.
    Proving something is hard, disproving... not so hard.

  7. #6882
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    6,281
    It's very unusual to find someone so thoroughly committed to misunderstanding math in all of its various forms. His innumeracy is rivaled only by his commitment. Once I knew him only as the author of the stupidest post in the history of TGR. But as my awe grows I begin to hope Alpinezone never steals him from us. He's a rare stone.

  8. #6883
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    7,229
    Family says conservative radio host has changed his tune on vaccines after he was hospitalized with Covid-19

    -For months, conservative Nashville, Tennessee-based radio host Phil Valentine has repeatedly made posts on multiple social media platforms telling his fans that if they weren't at risk for Covid-19, they shouldn't get the vaccine.

    That message changed on July 23.

    “ Phil contracted the Covid virus a little over a week ago and has since been hospitalized and is in very serious condition, suffering from Covid Pneumonia and the attendant side effects," the family statement reads, which emphasizes that Valentine has never been an anti-vaxxer. "(Phil) regrets not being more vehemently 'Pro-Vaccine' and looks forward to being able to more vigorously advocate that position as soon as he is back on the air, which we all hope will be soon."

    He also argued that he wasn't an "anti-vaxxer," he was just a "logical thinker."

    Valentine repeatedly made similar vaccine misinformation posts and shared misleading information about Covid-19 on social media. He even told followers they didn't need to get the vaccine.

    One woman posted that her sister had encouraged her to get vaccinated but her "gut told her not to" because she'd already had the virus.

    "Don't listen to your sister," Valentine responded. "If you've had (Covid-19) you have natural immunity."

    He told another follower that "only those in danger of dying from (Covid-19) should've gotten vaccinated."

    ——

    Sounds a lot like the “logical thinkers” in here.

  9. #6884
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    In a van... down by the river
    Posts
    8,594
    Quote Originally Posted by bennymac View Post
    <snip>

    He also argued that he wasn't an "anti-vaxxer," he was just a "logical thinker."
    Wait. So *logic* got him where he ended up?


  10. #6885
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Posts
    12,259
    yup, i misread it. it’s really odd that i can find flu statistics for every previous year but not last for norway and sweden. anyway RIP, credibility, i barely knew you. although i’d still take a chart with a source for zero flu cases. sounds…. unpossible .
    They got a name for the winners in the world

    http://procatinator.com/?cat=80

  11. #6886
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    7,229
    Ron Johnson is actually a woman! You just got to study it out.


  12. #6887
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    truckee
    Posts
    18,812
    Went to two grocery stores today. Neither requires masking. They're across the street from each other. In one--the discount place--most customers and all the staff were wearing masks. In the overpriced one no one was.
    My DIL is doing an ER rotation in Truckee. They're seeing a lot of covid cases in unvaxed tourists. Is it time to go back to hating tourists? (How about if we only allow vaxed tourists who commit to working 1 shift at a restaurant.)

  13. #6888
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    PNW
    Posts
    6,154
    Quote Originally Posted by RoooR View Post
    Never been called that before. There are things on that list from both the right and the left and the purpose was to demonstrate that both sides like to restrict freedom and think their restrictions are the "correct" ones. Which ones triggered you so much to call me that? Was it the gun one? Maybe education? As least I assume we agree that anybody should be able to get an abortion, smoke weed, and buy booze on any day of the week. BTW I've voted D in every election since I could vote.
    Your definitions of freedom were like quoting the Bill of Rights (dripping with sarcasm)...you deflect and pivoted so hard, a typical R move

    I enjoy a drink as much as anyone, but that being at the top of your list for freedom, jfc

  14. #6889
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Squaw valley
    Posts
    3,562
    Quote Originally Posted by RoooR View Post
    You guys aren't going to be able to prove anything with flu season with a bunch of directional charts. You'd need a multivariate regression and even then it's gonna be tough. Was it masks? Was it lock-downs? Was it people not wanting to go out? Was it a less virulent strain of the flu? Was it people washing their hands more? Was it people with the flu being more reluctant to goto the hospital due to COVID fears?

    2017-2018 was the worst flu season I've seen since I've been in health insurance. and even at it's peak the Inpatient hospital admissions were about 25% what COVID peaked at.
    2018-2019 was normal. About 40% the level of 2017-2018.
    2019-2020 started normal then dropped to about 40% of normal in March (see above)
    2020-2021 About 50% of normal. (see above)

    For a 65+ person admitted with the Flu the average hospital stay is about 5.25 days. For COVID it's over 9.
    No, you don't need statistical analysis to see if masks work, which would be next to impossible to prove.

    You need a solid understanding of physics.

    Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk

  15. #6890
    Join Date
    Aug 2019
    Posts
    1,083
    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    It's very unusual to find someone so thoroughly committed to misunderstanding math in all of its various forms. His innumeracy is rivaled only by his commitment. Once I knew him only as the author of the stupidest post in the history of TGR. But as my awe grows I begin to hope Alpinezone never steals him from us. He's a rare stone.
    Here we go again... once an argument is lost it's time to resort to baseless claims and name calling. Got an example of my misunderstanding of math? I already know the answer - otherwise you would have used it when I challenged the forum to find a post of mine that wasn't valid and no one could (outside the one technicality that wasn't in the spirit of the challenge).

  16. #6891
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    6,281
    I posted it. You found it. You whined and cried but it's still there and you can go look. The password is Yes.

  17. #6892
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    6,281
    Quote Originally Posted by rod9301 View Post
    No, you don't need statistical analysis to see if masks work, which would be next to impossible to prove.

    You need a solid understanding of physics.
    This x1000. Statistics are the weakest form of math. We use them when we can't build a model any other way because we don't understand the phenomenon well enough.

  18. #6893
    Join Date
    Aug 2019
    Posts
    1,083
    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    I posted it. You found it. You whined and cried but it's still there and you can go look. The password is Yes.
    So no examples of my misunderstanding of math then?

    Still no one has been able to find a post of mine that wasn't valid on the subject of COVID. jono thinks he got me because I missed responding to a post after saying I had responded to everyone. That's the best he's got!

  19. #6894
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    truckee
    Posts
    18,812
    In medicine, statistics, as flawed as it is, is the bedrock when it comes to deciding if a treatment works or doesn't work. That doesn't mean it's the be all and end all. A treatment may be statistically shown to increase cancer survival--but if the increased survival is 3 months and the treatment has horrendous side effects and costs $100,000 maybe not such a good idea. Statistical significance does not equal clinical significance.

    Lots of docs will tell you that their gut feeling or their experience tells them that useless treatment x will work for their patient. They are almost always wrong. (Maybe always when it comes to surgeons.)

    The generally accepted standard is a 5% or less chance that the benefit of treatment was due to chance and not the treatment. Which would mean 5% of studies are potentially wrong. (In practice most beneficial treatments have a much smaller chance of being due to chance; 5% is the highest acceptable number.) While we don't want to approve worthless treatments we don't want to throw out good ones. (Type 2 error.)

    Before you write off statistics, remember that the universe runs on probability.

  20. #6895
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Squaw valley
    Posts
    3,562
    I'm not writing of statistics, studied them for my nuclear physics degree, and actually enjoy them.

    I'm just objecting to a meta study that uses a number of poorly constructed studies to see if masks work or not

    If you use garbage data, the meta study will be worthless.

    On the other hand, physics will tell you how much benefit a mask will give either the wearer or the people around him.

    It seems that the anti mask people are using it as religion, and want to prove that masks don't work.

    Not clear why, masks are not that hard to use.

    Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk

  21. #6896
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    6,910
    “Let the children breathe!” :P

    Got our first dose of wildfire smoke this afternoon at home…. <!covid cough!>

  22. #6897
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    23,545
    Ron Johnson thinks he can demonstrate that Babe Ruth is the greatest baseball player of all time by only showing us Babe Ruth's stats.

  23. #6898
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    6,281
    Quote Originally Posted by old goat View Post
    In medicine, statistics, as flawed as it is, is the bedrock when it comes to deciding if a treatment works or doesn't work. That doesn't mean it's the be all and end all. A treatment may be statistically shown to increase cancer survival--but if the increased survival is 3 months and the treatment has horrendous side effects and costs $100,000 maybe not such a good idea. Statistical significance does not equal clinical significance.

    Lots of docs will tell you that their gut feeling or their experience tells them that useless treatment x will work for their patient. They are almost always wrong. (Maybe always when it comes to surgeons.)

    The generally accepted standard is a 5% or less chance that the benefit of treatment was due to chance and not the treatment. Which would mean 5% of studies are potentially wrong. (In practice most beneficial treatments have a much smaller chance of being due to chance; 5% is the highest acceptable number.) While we don't want to approve worthless treatments we don't want to throw out good ones. (Type 2 error.)

    Before you write off statistics, remember that the.universe runs on probability.
    The lowest form of math is still math, so certainly not writing it off. It's the best tool every time we don't have something better. But it's a good idea to keep in mind that there is sometimes something better--often, if physics can be used. We don't understand medicine well enough to use anything else and it's not the only thing like that. But when we can build a model that's predictive within an acceptable margin of error it can also be useful for designing better things--stealth fighters and masks, for example.

  24. #6899
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    truckee
    Posts
    18,812
    Quote Originally Posted by rod9301 View Post
    I'm not writing of statistics, studied them for my nuclear physics degree, and actually enjoy them.

    I'm just objecting to a meta study that uses a number of poorly constructed studies to see if masks work or not

    If you use garbage data, the meta study will be worthless.

    On the other hand, physics will tell you how much benefit a mask will give either the wearer or the people around him.

    It seems that the anti mask people are using it as religion, and want to prove that masks don't work.

    Not clear why, masks are not that hard to use.

    Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk
    Yeah, I was responding to Jono. Who already knows everything I said. Agree with you about metanalysis. Only as good as the individual studies, but if the original studies are well done but underpowered metanalysis can certainly bring out a valid conclusion that was hidden in the original papers.

    The reason I want to see clinical studies and not rely on the physics is, as Jono says, we don't understand medicine or the human body or viruses well enough to reliably predict outcomes based on physics or biochemistry. (Most of the covid vaccines haven't worked or haven't worked well.)

  25. #6900
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    6,281
    ^ Violent agreement, yes.



    I think I'm still smarting a little from the 6 microns = droplet fiasco. It's been a weird year.

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