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  1. #9301
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    Montucky is still around - he is reading these posts.

    Meanwhile Florida and Texas are getting their asses kicked. Posts about “well this state is worse by this metric!” or “I don’t see it happening around me” are to be expected from idiots.

  2. #9302
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    Quote Originally Posted by The AD View Post
    I'm sure this has been addressed somewhere in this thread, but would it be possible to modify the current vaccines to provide better protection from the delta variant?
    While none of the vaccines can be made to be specific for the mutation that makes Delta unique and contributes to the increase in transmissability, we know the existing vaccines afford significant protection already. So to the extent that the current vaccines can perform better, the answer is likely yes. For example, several groups are exploring how changing the interval between first and second dose effects the level of antibodies and T cells created. For Pfizer, changing from the 21-42 interval between shots currently used here in the states to 72 days looks like it could help.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/dela...e-study-2021-7

    The trade off of course is that you have more people walking around single-dose protection for an additional 30 days.

  3. #9303
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    Quote Originally Posted by huckbucket View Post
    While none of the vaccines can be made to be specific for the mutation that makes Delta unique and contributes to the increase in transmissability, we know the existing vaccines afford significant protection already. So to the extent that the current vaccines can perform better, the answer is likely yes. For example, several groups are exploring how changing the interval between first and second dose effects the level of antibodies and T cells created. For Pfizer, changing from the 21-42 interval between shots currently used here in the states to 72 days looks like it could help.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/dela...e-study-2021-7

    The trade off of course is that you have more people walking around single-dose protection for an additional 30 days.
    What happens when we do a 3 week second shot, followed by a third shot 10 weeks later?

  4. #9304
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    Quote Originally Posted by funkendrenchman View Post
    Always worth keeping an eye on Israel.

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021...t-defeat-delta
    Pretty grim article with good reason.

    An excerpt below:

    "What is clear is that “breakthrough” cases are not the rare events the term implies. As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. “There are so many breakthrough infections that they dominate and most of the hospitalized patients are actually vaccinated,” says Uri Shalit, a bioinformatician at the Israel Institute of Technology (Technion) who has consulted on COVID-19 for the government. “One of the big stories from Israel [is]: ‘Vaccines work, but not well enough.’”

  5. #9305
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongShortLong View Post
    What happens when we do a 3 week second shot, followed by a third shot 10 weeks later?
    That hasn't been studied afaik. Three dose regimens aren't new and are standard for Hep B and optional for HPV. They are however, usually spaced out a little further than 10 weeks presumably to avoid overlap with the innate response and provide extended time for establishing B and T populations. For example, the HPV 3-dose schedule is 0, 1–2 and then 6 months. Similarly, Hep B is 0, 1 to 2 months, and 4 to 6 months.

    I'm not an immunologist, so others will likely have a more informed view.

    Also consider the drop in adherence between a 2-dose and 3-dose regimen. Bigger picture issue for managing population-wide spread.

  6. #9306
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    Quote Originally Posted by bobz View Post
    ^^ Florida being very, very far from mid-pack has been beaten to death. And yes, montucky joined with his comrade Ron in pretending Florida was doing fine; funny how all these guys come up with the same falsehoods at around the same time.

    Texas isn't in as bad shape as Florida, but still, really not doing so great. As of right now (NYT site that everybody already has a link to):
    - #10 in current case rate;
    - #8 in hospitalizations per population;
    - #6 in current death rate;
    - I'll leave out the raw number rankings even though they're worse, because Texas is such a big state so of course the raw numbers are high;
    - All-time numbers: Indeed, these are mid-pack, but rising.
    The tourist element is strong too. Everyone cramming post vaccine / pre school year vacations in.

    Just got back from Hawaii and the place was 100% full with about 30% indoor mask compliance from tourists even though there is an indoor mask mandate.
    Click image for larger version. 

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    I get on an elevator with 6 people and maybe 1 have a mask on. Annoying.

    TSA line to get out of Maui was 2hrs long and wife tracked 1 mile on her Fitbit.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...vid-cases.html



    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  7. #9307
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    Quote Originally Posted by bodywhomper View Post
    I know a GC for a big company where most staff are vaxed, but the GCs assistant happily describes themselves as not vaxed. The GC is considering a change to the type of decisions that were previously delegated to the assistant.
    Seems a bit extreme. Build a stack of litmus tests and you'll have no employees, or friends. We're all humans with differing experiences and beliefs. Except in the case where the assistant might be deciding Covid policy. And even then how's changing their Covid policy any different than any other policy the GC may adjust. Surely the assistant is good at every other task, and a valuable team member. Possibly more valuable now, as you now know they are willing to raise controversial topics.

  8. #9308
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    Quote Originally Posted by Asspen View Post
    Pretty grim article with good reason.

    An excerpt below:

    "What is clear is that “breakthrough” cases are not the rare events the term implies. As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. “There are so many breakthrough infections that they dominate and most of the hospitalized patients are actually vaccinated,” says Uri Shalit, a bioinformatician at the Israel Institute of Technology (Technion) who has consulted on COVID-19 for the government. “One of the big stories from Israel [is]: ‘Vaccines work, but not well enough.’”
    .... "He says it’s also critical to vaccinate those who still haven’t received their first or second doses, and to return to the masking and social distancing Israel thought it had left behind—but has begun to reinstate.

  9. #9309
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  10. #9310
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    Quote Originally Posted by Asspen View Post
    Pretty grim article with good reason.

    An excerpt below:

    "What is clear is that “breakthrough” cases are not the rare events the term implies. As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. “There are so many breakthrough infections that they dominate and most of the hospitalized patients are actually vaccinated,” says Uri Shalit, a bioinformatician at the Israel Institute of Technology (Technion) who has consulted on COVID-19 for the government. “One of the big stories from Israel [is]: ‘Vaccines work, but not well enough.’”
    Ok, doomer.

    They're working great in Ontario. Difference here is most had to wait 4 weeks between doses, and many of us mixed brands (because who cares about what brand your vaccine is, anyway?). If only we could get the rest of the 'wait and see' dolts done, and then the kids we'd be (somewhat) smooth sailing. Did you get your vaccine yet?

    Today's (17th August 2021) cases by Vaccines��

    Vaccine Effectiveness: 84.66%



    None Partial Full Unknown
    Cases 203 49 79 17
    Hospitalization 61 7 14 -
    ICU 49 5 3 -


    Cases per 100K
    Cases per 100K with no vaccine 8.15
    Cases per 100K with partial vaccine 4.22
    Cases per 100K with Full vaccine 1.25
    Overall per 100K: 3.55


    7-day Average:

    Date Cases Hosp. ICU
    1 Dose 2 Dose 1 Dose 2 Dose 1 Dose 2 Dose
    As of Aug 17 -50.9% -86.5% -58.1% -97.5% -62.0% -92.7%
    ^ I cannot get the formatting correct ffs. But at any rate, data doesn't lie.

  11. #9311
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    Teeny tiny bit of hope? (With a turd lining)

    https://www.latimes.com/california/s...hallenge-looms
    Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident

  12. #9312
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    Sorry if already posted. WY military will likely impose mandates.

    https://buckrail.com/wyoming-militar...ccine-mandate/
    Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident

  13. #9313
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    Quote Originally Posted by paulster2626 View Post
    Ok, doomer.

    They're working great in Ontario. Difference here is most had to wait 4 weeks between doses, and many of us mixed brands (because who cares about what brand your vaccine is, anyway?). If only we could get the rest of the 'wait and see' dolts done, and then the kids we'd be (somewhat) smooth sailing. Did you get your vaccine yet?



    ^ I cannot get the formatting correct ffs. But at any rate, data doesn't lie.
    Funny, our leading expert in the USA disagrees with your statement above.

    https://fortune.com/2021/08/12/covid...o-is-eligible/

    “It is preferable you go with the same brand,” Fauci said. “You will be hearing instructions about that from the FDA [and] through the CDC."

  14. #9314
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    Quote Originally Posted by Asspen View Post
    Funny, our leading expert in the USA disagrees with your statement above.

    https://fortune.com/2021/08/12/covid...o-is-eligible/

    “It is preferable you go with the same brand,” Fauci said. “You will be hearing instructions about that from the FDA [and] through the CDC."
    I'm not sure the why for this recco except that Fauci has been pretty focused on "if the studies tested this way (Pfizerx2 gets Pfizer booster), then we have data for this way, and we should do it this way because we already shoot from the hip more than we want." It is the same reason we stuck to the dose spacing from the Phase III trials while some other countries decided to make up a new plan that varied from the study protocol based on a visit from the good idea fairy. Well, in this case, it seems that was a good decision for UK and Canada. Many of us felt "this is EUA approved based on the study data with a strict protocol, so let's not just change the process so that the safety and efficacy data may not match what we are actually doing." Well, new data, new plan, hooray!

    I haven't been able to watch the 8/13 ACIP meeting recording, probably will have discussion...
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  15. #9315
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    Quote Originally Posted by The AD View Post
    I'm sure this has been addressed somewhere in this thread, but would it be possible to modify the current vaccines to provide better protection from the delta variant?
    Absolutely possible, akin to how the Flu vax can change change each year to try and be more specific to the dominant circulating strains. Even easier with mRNA as it's just a few base pairs of change in the mRNA backbone. But, we are also moving the bar from "protection against severe disease and hospitalization" to "prevention of infection and reduction of transmission" in the population at whole.

    The former mobilizes different arms of immunity (innate signaling, t cell, mem b cell, and new burst of antibodies) that respond more rapidly due to immune memory in a second exposure. The current vaccines are still doing this, and like several vax's they tend to work better in a larger % of the vaccinees when using 3 dose regimens v. 2 or 1 dose vaccines.

    Prevention of Infection needs high quantities of circulating and mucosal neutralizing antibody that will bind virus and prevent it from getting inside a cell to replicate. Delta complicates the latter in 2 ways:

    It has drifted in it's Spike enough lower the % of the antibodies that were able to neutralize the first wave strain that remain able to bind and neutralize Delta and also lowers the % of previously infected or vaccinated people that have enough remaining neutralizing Abs to block a Delta infection. These circulating Nab levels decline over time as well, so a booster with a "Delta" variant could address this part.

    More insidious, it has sped up it's entry process into a cell significantly, both with changes in it's affinity for Ace2 and by having the majority of it's Spike proteins pre-primed by enhanced furin cleavage due to the P681R mutation. This means there is less time for antibodies to find and bind the virus in a way that blocks entry, and therefore chances of obtaining prevention of infection are reduced. Herd immunity goes from a hopeful 60-70% population coverage to ~90%.

    Given the really low Ct values with Delta and ~2 days earlier than the reference strain (d4v d6), the inference is not only faster entry into a cell but also faster replication, and also increased virus shedding. This could mean it takes less Delta to initiate an infection. This could also mean that Delta is worse because higher average initial exposures means it is harder for the to limit replication leading to disease progression. Or both are possible. So far limited data suggests Delta may be more likely to cause sickness vs remaining asymptomatic following exposure, but not more likely to cause severe disease/hospitalization death. To an extent that this may be due with infection demographics being younger for Delta and higher % of vaccine uptake in the 65+.

    From my personal science-y perspective, I sort of anticipated mutation that would be towards escape from neutralization and host attempts to clear the virus, but that vaccine immunity would still persist, and boosters would likely be needed at some interval of drift. I mentioned the initial furin cleavage site was still suboptimal, but it's surprising the extent the virus has been able to mutate in some strains to supress innate immune signaling, or to alter it's kinetics to speed up it's growth and transmission rates.
    Move upside and let the man go through...

  16. #9316
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    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    Sorry if already posted. WY military will likely impose mandates.

    https://buckrail.com/wyoming-militar...ccine-mandate/
    Wyoming military department is a disturbing phrase.

  17. #9317
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    Quote Originally Posted by Summit View Post
    I'm not sure the why for this recco except that Fauci has been pretty focused on "if the studies tested this way (Pfizerx2 gets Pfizer booster), then we have data for this way, and we should do it this way because we already shoot from the hip more than we want." It is the same reason we stuck to the dose spacing from the Phase III trials while some other countries decided to make up a new plan that varied from the study protocol based on a visit from the good idea fairy. Well, in this case, it seems that was a good decision for UK and Canada. Many of us felt "this is EUA approved based on the study data with a strict protocol, so let's not just change the process so that the safety and efficacy data may not match what we are actually doing." Well, new data, new plan, hooray!

    I haven't been able to watch the 8/13 ACIP meeting recording, probably will have discussion...
    It seems like if Fauci recommended doing what Canada has done with mix and matching vaccines that the antivaxxers would latch onto it as being untested and therefore a reason for not vaccinating.
    Damn shame, throwing away a perfectly good white boy like that

  18. #9318
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    Quote Originally Posted by paulster2626 View Post
    Ok, doomer.

    They're working great in Ontario. Difference here is most had to wait 4 weeks between doses, and many of us mixed brands (because who cares about what brand your vaccine is, anyway?). If only we could get the rest of the 'wait and see' dolts done, and then the kids we'd be (somewhat) smooth sailing.
    Even though the antivaxx crowd is having field day with Israel, the vaccines are doing a really good job—just not as spectacular as before—in Israel too. Comparing infection and disease rates (per 100k) and not just raw counts to compare unvaccinated and vaccinated groups shows high efficacy protecting against severe disease, even for Delta, and even in Israel.

    Israel data as of August 15, 2021 broken out by age group:

    Attachment 382640


    Antivaxxers' are going to antivaxx. It seems pandemic intervention skeptics however should be praising the vaccines from rooftops and arguing for universal vaccination so we can get back to normal.
    Last edited by MultiVerse; 08-17-2021 at 02:24 PM.

  19. #9319
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    So what vaccine did everyone in Israel get?

  20. #9320
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mofro261 View Post
    Absolutely possible, akin to how the Flu vax can change change each year to try and be more specific to the dominant circulating strains. Even easier with mRNA as it's just a few base pairs of change in the mRNA backbone. But, we are also moving the bar from "protection against severe disease and hospitalization" to "prevention of infection and reduction of transmission" in the population at whole.
    Interesting stuff. Once again Mofro brings the knowledge!

  21. #9321
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    Quote Originally Posted by splat View Post
    So what vaccine did everyone in Israel get?
    Pfizer.

    One of the reasons why Israeli numbers are causing so much alarm is because nearly all older people are vaccinated (>90% of residents >50yr) while the vast majority of unvaccinated are younger people. So if the calculations use averages in the denominator instead of vaccination rates by age groups then the numbers appear worse when vaccination rates are high.

  22. #9322
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    Quote Originally Posted by splat View Post
    So what vaccine did everyone in Israel get?
    Easy. You already got that one, man.


    I mean, I'm just guessing you did. But it does seem like a safe guess.

  23. #9323
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Wyoming military department is a disturbing phrase.
    Did they buy an aircraft carrier a while back, or was that just a bill?

  24. #9324
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    Quote Originally Posted by The AD View Post
    Interesting stuff. Once again Mofro brings the knowledge!
    IKR? Between mofro and mtuhockeyTBI, we have expertise up in here.

  25. #9325
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    When you see something that is not right, not just, not fair, you have a moral obligation to say something. To do something." Rep. John Lewis


    Kindness is a bridge between all people

    Dunkin’ Donuts Worker Dances With Customer Who Has Autism

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