To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[altasnob]

Shut the fuck up with your misinformation bullshit you fucking trolling cunt

Oh, I see you don't agree with Rhodes Scholar Oxford/Harvard MD Dr. Murray?

At the population level, for the first time in our models, we’re finding that the population effect of enhanced mask-wearing is quite small, about a 10% reduction in cumulative infection from Omicron from now forward. It’s still there, but in the grand scheme of things, it’s relatively small.

[SumJongGuy]

10% is light years beyond statistically significant... 10% of 300 million people is pretty fucking huge. Put your fucking mask back on and shut the fuck up.. I mean what % of the total population of drivers and passengers do seat belts save from severe injury? If it's less than 10% we should ditch them right?

[oldnew_guy]

10% is light years beyond statistically significant... 10% of 300 million people is pretty fucking huge. Put your fucking mask back on and shut the fuck up.. I mean what % of the total population of drivers and passengers do seat belts save from severe injury? If it's less than 10% we should ditch them right?

Reality: Most people who have spent the last two years doing what they are told and are vaccinated and will apparently get the equivalent of a cold from omicron are done sacrificing so unvaccinated people can stay out of the ICU. And the unvaccinated generally don’t give a shit anyways.

If you want to protect yourself with a mask going forward, go for it. Probably wise considering the last round of relaxing masking we got omicron halfway through.

(I understand the counter of people who can’t be vaccinated, kids, etc. and I’m not justifying these backwards looking studies that omit facts they don’t like.)

[John_B]

Altasnob has evidently never heard the phrase "all models are wrong, some models are useful"

[altasnob]

California, the place famous for COVID restrictions so tough that they drove Joe Rogan and Elon Musk to Texas, is lifting their statewide mask law on February 15.

Even if you don't believe the models, just look at the numbers today. Every state is well past their Omicron peak and falling fast. A handful of states, like NY and DC area, are already at pre-Omicron infection levels. In a week, all states will be there. The numbers are not falling solely due to masks, social distancing, or vaccinations. They are falling primarily because 50% of the population just got infected and the virus has run out of people to infect.

Have you been to restaurants, bars, gyms, or concerts? The mask laws in those environments are just silly. I was at concert in rule following Seattle the other night. Either people don't wear a mask at all, they wear them around their chin, or they nurse their drink all night so they don't have to wear a mask, but can still claim they are following the rules. If people want to voluntarily wear a mask, fine. But mask rules are a thing of the past.

[Danno]

Altasnob has evidently never heard the phrase "all models are wrong, some models are useful"

Heh, I'm quite familiar with that one.

[SumJongGuy]

Reality: Most people who have spent the last two years doing what they are told and are vaccinated and will apparently get the equivalent of a cold from omicron are done sacrificing so unvaccinated people can stay out of the ICU. And the unvaccinated generally don’t give a shit anyways.

If you want to protect yourself with a mask going forward, go for it. Probably wise considering the last round of relaxing masking we got omicron halfway through.

(I understand the counter of people who can’t be vaccinated, kids, etc. and I’m not justifying these backwards looking studies that omit facts they don’t like.)

Nope sorry, but until the EDs and ICUs are back to NORMAL business, because currently if I'm in a car wreck I could get sent to another hospital 100 miles away because all these are full of covidiotss, we're still screwed. If they're screwed we're screwed. Mask mandates should stay in place until the healthcare system is able to handle the total volume of everything and not barely able to keep up the way things are..

[oldnew_guy]

Nope sorry, but until the EDs and ICUs are back to NORMAL business, because currently if I'm in a car wreck I could get sent to another hospital 100 miles away because all these are full of covidiots. Mask mandates should stay in place until the healthcare system is able to handle the total volume of everything and not barely able to keep up the way things are..

Look, I don’t disagree necessarily, but the hospital projections are obviously driving lifting of the mask mandates. Oregon has been relatively conservative, so I’m assuming they know what they are doing.

I think you are also engaging in a common fantasy I see across many facets of society: things are going back to normal, IE - 2019. Guess what, it isn’t. We are going to have CoVID with us, WFH isn’t going away, etc, etc. People need to adjust. Systems will need to adjust.

I’ll probably wear a protective masks for awhile longer as I’m still hoping to get the kids across the finish line for their vaccinations.

[Adolf Allerbush]

Look, I don’t disagree necessarily, but the hospital projections are obviously driving lifting of the mask mandates. Oregon has been relatively conservative, so I’m assuming they know what they are doing.

I think you are also engaging in a common fantasy I see across many facets of society: things are going back to normal, IE - 2019. Guess what, it isn’t. We are going to have CoVID with us, WFH isn’t going away, etc, etc. People need to adjust. Systems will need to adjust.

I’ll probably wear a protective masks for awhile longer as I’m still hoping to get the kids across the finish line for their vaccinations.

I tend to agree, but I hope the part bolded doesn't pan out this way. Cities are struggling, especially cities like Portland and other west coast cities, where homeless encampments have filled the void where once there were daily commuters to work. Maybe it doesn't get back 100% to pre-pandemic ever in this regard, but something closer to what it was is my hope.

[oldnew_guy]

I tend to agree, but I hope the part bolded doesn't pan out this way. Cities are struggling, especially cities like Portland and other west coast cities, where homeless encampments have filled the void where once there were daily commuters to work. Maybe it doesn't get back 100% to pre-pandemic ever in this regard, but something closer to what it was is my hope.

I personally don’t know any office dwellers that aren’t going to a hybrid WFH schedule at a minimum.

I don’t think this is the place for the PDX homeless situation conversation, but that issue is more of a political will problem than a CoVID problem, IMO.

[Adolf Allerbush]

I personally don’t know any office dwellers that aren’t going to a hybrid WFH schedule at a minimum.

I don’t think this is the place for the PDX homeless situation conversation, but that issue is more of a political will problem than a CoVID problem, IMO.

Understood and definitely not trying to make this into a political discussion. Agreed on the hybrid WFH situation.

[SumJongGuy]

Look, I don’t disagree necessarily, but the hospital projections are obviously driving lifting of the mask mandates. Oregon has been relatively conservative, so I’m assuming they know what they are doing.

I think you are also engaging in a common fantasy I see across many facets of society: things are going back to normal, IE - 2019. Guess what, it isn’t. We are going to have CoVID with us, WFH isn’t going away, etc, etc. People need to adjust. Systems will need to adjust.

I’ll probably wear a protective masks for awhile longer as I’m still hoping to get the kids across the finish line for their vaccinations.

IF.. and that's a big IF the healthcare systems do settle down as Omicron wanes.. Yes, relaxing the mask rules makes sense. But, as long as there are more COVID patients than regular flu patients clogging up ICU beds and vents I doubt we have the healthcare system stamp of approval you claim.

It's political more than health and welfare based.. Many people just want to give up and take their chances. Not cool for those who are high risk though..

[altasnob]

IF.. and that's a big IF the healthcare systems do settle down as Omicron wanes..

Glancing at the state' graphs, hospitalizations have peaked and are going down in all states. Again, the states where Omicron hit first are nearly back to pre-Omicron numbers. I don't understand why people still think hospitals are going to be crammed in, like, two weeks down the road? There is nothing wrong with setting policy today for something you fully expect to occur in two weeks.

[old goat]

California is dropping the statewide mask mandate. Some counties will still have them. I've got a good supply of N95s and KF94s. Should come in handy this spring on visits to Sacramento during allergy season and this summer and fall during smoke season. So don't make fun of me when you see me wearing a mask outdoors. (I've also upped my furnace filter game--last summer we were running the furnace fan to filter the indoor air.)

[grskier]

Reality: Most people who have spent the last two years doing what they are told and are vaccinated and will apparently get the equivalent of a cold from omicron are done sacrificing so unvaccinated people can stay out of the ICU. And the unvaccinated generally don’t give a shit anyways.

If you want to protect yourself with a mask going forward, go for it. Probably wise considering the last round of relaxing masking we got omicron halfway through.

(I understand the counter of people who can’t be vaccinated, kids, etc. and I’m not justifying these backwards looking studies that omit facts they don’t like.)

That's pretty singular thinking.
There are other layers to the onion, like hospital capacity (even the omicron 'cold' had people in the hospital), etc.

That all said, I'm freaking over it.

[supermodel159]

Shut the fuck up with your misinformation bullshit you fucking trolling cunt

When the science hits....TRIGGERED!

This thread is amazing.

[supermodel159]

California is dropping the statewide mask mandate. Some counties will still have them. I've got a good supply of N95s and KF94s. Should come in handy this spring on visits to Sacramento during allergy season and this summer and fall during smoke season. So don't make fun of me when you see me wearing a mask outdoors. (I've also upped my furnace filter game--last summer we were running the furnace fan to filter the indoor air.)

N95's are great for fire season.

[oldnew_guy]

That's pretty singular thinking.
There are other layers to the onion, like hospital capacity (even the omicron 'cold' had people in the hospital), etc.

That all said, I'm freaking over it.

I’m just commenting on what I’m seeing. People are over it and that’s how they are acting. Protect yourself with protective behavior and equipment if it’s a priority for you. I am.

State I am in has clearly been managing hospitalization with their measures, which they are relaxing. Apparently they think it is prudent after 2 years of conservative approaches. I tend to agree with them.

[uglymoney]

I’m just commenting on what I’m seeing. People are over it and that’s how they are acting. Protect yourself with protective behavior and equipment if it’s a priority for you. I am.

State I am in has clearly been managing hospitalization with their measures, which they are relaxing. Apparently they think it is prudent after 2 years of conservative approaches. I tend to agree with them.

I'm over it.

People have had time to get vaccinated.

My bag of fucks is empty and like a lot of people Omicron didn't touch me luckily but exposure is a definite.

My wife had the Omicron and skated that shit like most people with the vax. We went to the first indoor restaurant in two fucking years. No I did not wear a mask walking in because that is ridiculous.

Tell me why I should worry about it right now? Nobody else around here has given a shit for months.

I wear a mask if indoors where people are required or where people have to be there and are wearing a mask to protect themselves like at a meeting for a ski race this weekend. I got their back with my stockpile of N95's and slipped into it for the 10% of people wearing masks.

Going to enjoy ourselves till the next variant makes that unwise.

Also, to the fuckheads on Twitter who think I should have worn a mask and was putting everybody at risk gutting my covid deer outside...go fuck yourselves....er nevermind. I'm clean out of fucks to give. Forgot.

[The AD]

I’m just commenting on what I’m seeing. People are over it and that’s how they are acting.

Probably depends on where you are. I haven't noticed anyone acting any different recently where I live.

[uglymoney]

I think there has been a huge disconnect between the coasts and the midwest for months. You can see it in our incredibly high death rate here in Iowa.

Sad. But that is the reality.

I feel really good about what we accomplished. My wife gets super sick with any little respiratory virus. We managed to keep her away from it until after she was triple dosed with 100 mcg Modernas and we had access to home testing and fast pcr testing and monoclonals injected into her and after the virus seemingly muted itself into a less deadly strain.

But for now I'm sorta done.



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[altasnob]

AD, you live in a small bubble. Go north or south and you will see a major difference. I shop mainly at Metropolean market in Tacoma (Seattle chain, as yuppy as any in the state) and it's 100% mask wearing. But go to Hilltop Safeway, which serves a more diverse lower income clientele and masks are nearly non-existent, despite a law requiring it. The concert I went to last weekend where mask compliance was horrendous was a Greatful Dead cover band at Nectar in Freemont (heart of Seattle).

It just depends on where you hang out in each particular city.

[Mofro261]

Full text for Rhodes Scholar Oxford/Harvard MD Dr. Murray's opinion on mask usage.

WHY SHOULD WE STILL WEAR MASKS?

Throughout our analyses, we have found mask-wearing reduces the risk of transmission by about 50%, and that still holds true. At the individual level, you have a reduced risk of both transmitting and being infected of about 50%, and this probably varies by the type of mask that you wear. At the population level, for the first time in our models, we’re finding that the population effect of enhanced mask-wearing is quite small, about a 10% reduction in cumulative infection from Omicron from now forward. It’s still there, but in the grand scheme of things, it’s relatively small.

The reason why these are both true statements – the 50% reduction with a mask and 10% at a population level – is that the risk of transmission of Omicron among so many people in a community is so great that even a 50% reduction doesn’t really do anything at a population level. Think about it like this: on a given day, if you’re going to be exposed to Omicron six times, you may be exposed only three times if you’re wearing a mask, but you’re still going to get infected. That’s sort of how the logic plays out in our modeling – it’s about the speed and intensity of Omicron. We still strongly believe that the act of wearing a mask reduces the risk of infection on a 1:1 basis.

Do you disagree with Rhodes Scholar Oxford/Harvard MD Dr. Murray's actual opinion for continued mask usage?

[wooley12]

I see more unmasked at the QFC in NB than 6 months ago. 2-3 each time I go as opposed the occasional unmasked shopper. No one at NAPA has worn mask since the beginning. God damn we are such children. I recall trying to teach them that "wishing won't make it so." Everyone can agree we wish it was over but only half of us know it is not. Unless the new accepted norm has moved from 40k to 200k people dying per year from the "Flu". Is it still the Novel Carona?

[altasnob]

Do you disagree with Rhodes Scholar Oxford/Harvard MD Dr. Murray's actual opinion for continued mask usage?

I've posted Dr. Murray's comment on this issue and linked to where people can read it, unabridged. I haven't tried to hide anything he is saying.

He says mask wearing reduces the risk of infection. I never argued about that. The question is, is it still worth it if the reduction is statistically minimal? How many lives does mask wearing save from here going forward? If it's just a few thousand in the entire country, and limited to unvaccinated and those with comorbidities, do we still make the entire country continue to wear masks to save those people? Governments around the world are increasingly saying, no.