Results 17,551 to 17,575 of 23206
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12-01-2021, 11:40 AM #17551
Trevor Bedford addresses this question on his twitter. Rt relies on both transmissibility and immune escape. In other words, just because Omicron is spreading fast does not mean it is more transmissible than Delta, but could be a combination of transmissibility and getting around immunity. Also says estimates of current fitness advantage of Omicron are likely to get lower in the coming days as bias from preferential sequencing eases as more surveillance samples are sequenced. He ultimately does not think it is likely that Omicron is as transmissible as Delta and is more likely to fall near Gamma (because Omicron lacks some of the mutations that make Delta so transmissible). Not necessarily good news because he thinks Omicron's immune escape is driving the spread. Shown here in a graph:
I like this graph he shared which points to where we need the vaccines to go:
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12-01-2021, 11:43 AM #17552
Yesterday there was a family of fatties at the local public indoor market. Everyone was morbidly obese and unmasked. Dad was especially interesting, embroidered skinny jeans with his flabby muffin top spilling over the waistband. American flag hat and backpack. He was also carrying a 10” Bowie knife on his belt and you could tell mom and dad were spoiling for a fight.
I’m not thrilled about the irony of masking in indoor places with people eating unmasked a few feet away but rules are rules and we’re all in this together.
People talked about masking as virtue signaling last year, now it’s swung the other way. People unmasked when the vast majority are masked because of mandates. Virtual signaling that you’re a patriotic freedom lover and don’t care about others health.
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12-01-2021, 11:44 AM #17553
Yes, I'm well aware of these concepts, but I still have having trouble believing the immune escape and R0 combination required to generate the SA data. I think it is a sampling issue. Otherwise, as I said, Measles would be jealous (and we might be proper fuct unless virulence took a dive).
As to the vaccine target map, which is based on uptake, well, kinda. That's just one thing to look at. You also have to consider population risk factors and uptake in target populations. For variant prevention you also have to consider the efficacy of the vaccines deployed to some extent.
However, for variant prevention, this map is arguably as or more important than the total vaccine uptake map, but it is very politically incorrect to discuss in the open.
(I *heart* OWID)Originally Posted by blurred
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12-01-2021, 11:44 AM #17554?
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12-01-2021, 11:47 AM #17555
politically incorrect for whom? The Christian churches that were anti-condom for years?
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12-01-2021, 11:50 AM #17556
For many many power structures and narrative orchestrators, we need not pretend HIV prevalence is unifactorial. But sure, you do a religious demographic overlay map and you will piss off the Catholic power structures although South Africa and Botswana are mostly Protestant. My message is that it is a hard subject to discuss while being critical to the consideration of new variants. The immunocompromised are viral mutation factories.
Originally Posted by blurred
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12-01-2021, 11:58 AM #17557
This is above my pay grade, but on this specific issue he says, "Note that these estimates of current fitness advantage of Omicron are very likely to get lower in the coming days as bias from preferential sequencing eases as more surveillance samples are sequenced." "I'd hope for modeling work using this S dropout data to better quantify relative fitness of Omicron vs Delta in the following days."
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1464353251147481089
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12-01-2021, 12:03 PM #17558
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12-01-2021, 12:06 PM #17559
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12-01-2021, 12:24 PM #17560
My buddy in Greece told me they are mandating vaccines for 60yr olds and older. 100€ fine per month they aren’t vaccinated.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...pm-2021-11-30/
What happens for those who refuse and also don’t pay the fine?
Jail? I’m all about vaccine mandates but once you start rounding up and imprisoning the unvaccinated it sorts of crosses a line (in my opinion)
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12-01-2021, 12:29 PM #17561
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12-01-2021, 12:32 PM #17562
Did the article say that the unvaccinated seniors would be jailed? Maybe they will just forfeit 100 euros of their pension. Maybe if they don’t pay the fine they’ll be denied care. I guess we’ll find out.
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12-01-2021, 12:33 PM #17563
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12-01-2021, 12:35 PM #17564
It didn’t say. I’m speculating.
Greece is a financial mess. 100€ is a lot of money over there for the average Greek.
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12-01-2021, 12:45 PM #17565
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12-01-2021, 12:53 PM #17566
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12-01-2021, 01:19 PM #17567
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12-01-2021, 01:23 PM #17568
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12-01-2021, 01:26 PM #17569
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12-01-2021, 01:30 PM #17570
How are the numbers out of SA factoring in for you? I'm similarly hopeful that there are some sampling issues at work there, probably including an anomoly at the low point, but wouldn't measles be jealous of a jump from 312 to 8561 in nine days? Getting down to 312 cases as omicron was starting off (just when SA was basking in their recent victory) might make getting to 90% omicron unusually easy. One way or another, this seems like (partly, at least) an example of LSL's oft-repeated case for heterogeneity in spread.
https://sacoronavirus.co.za/category/daily-cases/
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12-01-2021, 01:36 PM #17571
I have a reasonable picture of US surveillance.
I am not going to pretend I understand SA surveillance. Heterogeneity in spread may also be coupled with profound multifactorial heterogeneity in surveillance.
1st Omicron case in California.Originally Posted by blurred
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12-01-2021, 01:39 PM #17572
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12-01-2021, 01:58 PM #17573
I’m in the post-jab waiting area; Pfizer. Hoping for the best, but the next 24 hours might mildly suck.
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12-01-2021, 01:59 PM #17574
You’ll be fine
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12-01-2021, 02:05 PM #17575
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