To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[Benny Profane]

You have gone completely fucking nuts. NOBODY (except for maybe some pharmaceutical executives) want this to continue for one more day.

Nope. Just like Silicon Valley is The Revenge of the Nerds, this event is and will be the revenge of the introverts and hypochondriacs. I mean, my god, with Trump gone, the media needs all this fear for clicks and eyes, and they are all over it 24/7. Look at this thread. For fucks sake, just get poked and live, but, so many are so obsessed about it all. Enough already. Pandemics happen, and then they die. But, yeah, a lot of people like life over the past few years. The WFH crowd? Fuck yeah. They don't want back to the cube. Older, retired people? What's the difference to them? Shit, if I can have the local road biking from Spring 2020, fuck, paradise.

[Benny Profane]

Did you eat a lot of paint chips as a child?

Well, didn't smoke a warehouse full of weed as a young adult.

[old goat]

As Summit pointed out, testing is hard. There is a reason Public Heath specialists are specialists. It is their job to try to figure out the best protocols for just such situations as C-19. They are trying to balance the spread of disease and it's impact on the public, hence "Public Health". It would be easy just to lock everything down, hence no spread, but massive public affect, vs. do nothing at all, and have massive health effects without affecting the function of society, at least until everybody is dead.

Rather then politicians, and TGR Monday morning quarterbacking, we need to let the PH people do their job and follow their recommendations. Oversight is certainly necessary and appropriate, but unfortunately too many politicians, and now wrong headed right wingers want to control such recommendations and they are fucking everything up.

We, as the public, should not be deciding, or debating which test to use when, because very few people understand the complexity of testing. Those of us in the medical field are constantly trying to figure out the best testing, the best interpretation of a variety of tests, and what the fuck it even all means. Even with massive amounts of training, constant CE, years of experience it is still fucking hard. A plumber reading a few social media posts sure as fuck can't figure it out.

disclaimer: I have nothing against plumbers

It's not just politicians, right wngers, maggots, and plumbers. About every third person with MD after their name is blogging about it and most are happy to disagree with the FDA, CDC, the Covid advisory panels, and other appointed experts. Doubtless some of the naysayers will turn out to be right, most won't, and there's no way to tell which is which until after the fact. The CDC etc gets a lot of grief for its messaging but the skeptics aren't helping the messaging. When the commander says take the hill you take the hill. Hopefully the commander isn't Pickett. If it is at least you can rest easy in your grave knowing that history judged him and Lee harshly.

[riser4]

Well, didn't smoke a warehouse full of weed as a young adult.

Well played.

[Benny Profane]

Did a lot of acid, though.

[bad dancer]

My Landlord who is a Dr told me that he's not getting the 3rd boost. Somethng about the 3rd-4th wave is the strongest and it will just die our pretty fast and we will all be ok.
I did a quick google. Yup he's a Dr alright. Dr of Acupuncture. So he got that going for him.......

[Garbowski]

Still have not seen a good source on the percentage of Omicron hospitalizations/deaths for vaccinated vs unvaccinated people. Just curious if it is any different than before. Seems like a ton more breakthrough infections, but also a lot more infections overall.

[old goat]

Still have not seen a good source on the percentage of Omicron hospitalizations/deaths for vaccinated vs unvaccinated people. Just curious if it is any different than before. Seems like a ton more breakthrough infections, but also a lot more infections overall.

I expect those stats will be a few weeks in coming, or in being somewhat accurate, and may well overestimate the risk of hospitalization for both groups, since a lot of cases will be diagnosed by home test and never be reported to the virus counters unless they result in a visit to the doctor or hospital.

[schwerty]

Summit - thank you for what you do!

[Benny Profane]

Lookee here.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/30/w...n-decline.html



South Africa says that it has passed its fourth wave of cases, and counts few added deaths.

The South African government said Thursday that data from its health department suggested that the country had passed its Omicron peak without a major spike in deaths, offering cautious hope to other countries grappling with the variant.

“The speed with which the Omicron-driven fourth wave rose, peaked and then declined has been staggering,” said Fareed Abdullah of the South African Medical Research Council. “Peak in four weeks and precipitous decline in another two. This Omicron wave is over in the city of Tshwane. It was a flash flood more than a wave.” The rise in deaths over the period was small, and in the last week, officials said, “marginal.”

Some scientists were quick to forecast the same pattern elsewhere.

“We’ll be in for a tough January, as cases will keep going up and peak, and then fall fast,” said Ali Mokdad, a University of Washington epidemiologist who is a former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention scientist. While cases will still overwhelm hospitals, he said, he expects that the proportion of hospitalized cases will be lower than in earlier waves.

[uglymoney]

Doubtless some of the naysayers will turn out to be right, most won't, and there's no way to tell which is which until after the fact. The CDC etc gets a lot of grief for its messaging but the skeptics aren't helping the messaging.

Agreed.

I see these folk being critical but then not actually offer up a succinct alternative message...because that is the hard part.

Yes, the CDC has been knocked off of its pedestal as has the rest of our country. But their messaging has become an easy kicking horse for peoples frustration with the whole clusterfuck. Not really productive.

[SumJongGuy]

Lookee here.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/30/w...n-decline.html



South Africa says that it has passed its fourth wave of cases, and counts few added deaths.

The South African government said Thursday that data from its health department suggested that the country had passed its Omicron peak without a major spike in deaths, offering cautious hope to other countries grappling with the variant.

Humm, that would be very good news if it transfers to other locations..

% of population fully vaccinated South Africa 26.6%

If it's not laying waste to 74% unvaxxed maybe it won't be as bad as Delta. But, if it's still filling up ERs and ICUs more people will be dying from heart attacks car wrecks, etc due to not getting the proper care they'd get without the COVID patients taking up all the resources.

[old goat]

If it's not laying waste to 74% unvaxxed maybe it won't be as bad as Delta. But, if it's still filling up ERs and ICUs more people will be dying from heart attacks car wrecks, etc due to not getting the proper care they'd get without the COVID patients taking up all the resources.

Presumably a fair number of people who don't otherwise need er care will show up to get a prescription for covid pills to keep them from getting sick.

[Thaleia]

Also worth noting, re: South Africa - it's currently summer there..

[skiskiskiskiski]

Presumably a fair number of people who don't otherwise need er care will show up to get a prescription for covid pills to keep them from getting sick.

This could be avoided by having other places well publicized and staffed that are easier than the ER. Ohh wait. Capitalism.

[XXX-er]

Omicron seems to be less of a killer so all the anti vaxxers will be sayin " see I told ya I didnt need a vax "

otoh Omicron is so virulent more people get infected so what will that do for the long haulers & the Death totals ??

speaking of which the worldometer DT is up to 845K, so that # seemed to climb pretty fast since passing 800K

[summit]

Still have not seen a good source on the percentage of Omicron hospitalizations/deaths for vaccinated vs unvaccinated people. Just curious if it is any different than before. Seems like a ton more breakthrough infections, but also a lot more infections overall.

CO is >91% Omicron as of 2 weeks ago and reports the current proportions in the hospital. It's still 80% unvaccinated as it has been for months.

Yes there are breakthrough infections, but the vaccinated are still well protected against severe illness (hospitalizations).

[summit]

If it's not laying waste to 74% unvaxxed maybe it won't be as bad as Delta. But, if it's still filling up ERs and ICUs more people will be dying from heart attacks car wrecks, etc due to not getting the proper care they'd get without the COVID patients taking up all the resources.

The 74% unvaccinated in SA have almost all already been previously infected by the previous three waves of Wuhan-1, Beta, and Delta. So there are many reinfections, but like vaccine breakthroughs, they have good protection against severe disease. The population risk factors for South Africa are much different as well.

It may well be so that Omicron is 40% (give or take 10%) less likely to cause hospitalization, but the case rate offsets this in terms of impacts on hospital capacity and the second/third order effects.

[skiJ]

not sure where you are getting the worldmeter DT at 845K -
to me that means world-wide deaths, which I read at 5.4million.


ugh.

thanks in-advance for clarification.

skiJ

[The AD]

otoh Omicron is so virulent more people get infected so what will that do for the long haulers & the Death totals ??

Please check the definition of "virulent." Omicron isn't particularly virulent and that's a good thing. Recent studies have suggested it doesn't affect the lungs as much as other Covid-19 strains, so hopefully that's good news in terms of both long-haulers and deaths.

[funkendrenchman]

Crazy if this is true. I saw a similar story from Hong Kong.

A traveler isolated for Covid-19 at a quarantine facility in New Zealand managed to infect three others across a hallway, researchers reported Thursday.

Closed-circuit camera footage, genetic testing and careful contact tracing show that the only conceivable way the virus could have passed from one room to another was in air that leaked out when both doors were briefly opened, the researchers said.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/30/healt...ion/index.html

[SumJongGuy]

Crazy if this is true. I saw a similar story from Hong Kong.

A traveler isolated for Covid-19 at a quarantine facility in New Zealand managed to infect three others across a hallway, researchers reported Thursday.

Closed-circuit camera footage, genetic testing and careful contact tracing show that the only conceivable way the virus could have passed from one room to another was in air that leaked out when both doors were briefly opened, the researchers said.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/30/healt...ion/index.html

They won't shut much down beyond maybe sports. They'll say that with vaccine protection against severe illness, masks are enough. Might see bars shut down, maybe dine in food again. Everything where folks can and should wear masks will stay open.

[wooley12]

Crazy if this is true. I saw a similar story from Hong Kong.

A traveler isolated for Covid-19 at a quarantine facility in New Zealand managed to infect three others across a hallway, researchers reported Thursday.

Closed-circuit camera footage, genetic testing and careful contact tracing show that the only conceivable way the virus could have passed from one room to another was in air that leaked out when both doors were briefly opened, the researchers said.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/30/healt...ion/index.html

I'm glad I read the part you didn't quote.

[funkendrenchman]

I'm glad I read the part you didn't quote.

Which part was your favorite?

[wooley12]

"Vax works."