To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[seano732]

Just got round two of Pfizer...I am BEAMING straight 5G yo!

[bennymac]

Just got round two of Pfizer...I am BEAMING straight 5G yo!

Congrats on the upgrade!

[ötzi]

I know zero about this news (or even if it's real news), I just heard it on the radio a minute ago, but they said a vaccine-resistant strain has been found, has anyone seen anything on this? That would be no bueno.

[old goat]

recently isolated after a colleague went + covid, had received the moderna vaccine about a month prior

Is your colleague symptomatic? As has been pointed out several times, we don't yet have evidence that either vaccine prevents asymptomatic infection.
Also, maybe one of the smart people can answer me this--the mRNA vaccines cause the body to start making spike proteins. For how long after vaccination does that go on, or is it one copy of spike protein and then the mRNA is destroyed? Could spike protein alone give a positive result on an antigen test? If a vaccinated person were infected with SARS-CoV-2 and the immune response rapidly ended the infection, could non-infectious debris from the brief infection produce a positive test result, similar to the way recovering Covid 19 patients may test positive for some time after active infection has been stopped? Do we have tests that distinguish between live virus and nonviable viral remnants?

[seano732]

I know zero about this news (or even if it's real news), I just heard it on the radio a minute ago, but they said a vaccine-resistant strain has been found, has anyone seen anything on this? That would be no bueno.

Well shit.

[ötzi]

I've hunted around some since my earlier post, it's apparently still at least partly speculation (and possibly wrong) but what the strain seems to have evolved is resistance to antibodies, not the vaccine per se. With so much of the virus around it has billions of opportunities to mutate so I guess it's not that surprising that it would do so. We need to squash this shit in a hurry to stop (or at least slow down) that evolutionary process.

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.co...cine-resistant

[Tri-Ungulate]

The concern is that vaccines will target the site that is mutated in the South African variant.

Looked at the BioRxiv preprint that warns of this variant (here) and it appears to be at amino acid 484, located in a region called the receptor binding domain, or RBD of the spike protein. The mutation is from a glutamic acid residue mutated to lysine, though nobody knows how this affects virulence. From numerous prior studies, it's pretty well established that the RBD region is one of the most common targets of "natural" immune neutralization seen in most people who are infected with SARS CoV2, and preprint describes that the South African mutation allows for escape from neutralizing antibodies and T-cell response.

The mRNA vaccines prevalent in the US (Pfizer and Moderna) basically provide a dummy spike protein as target practice for the immune system (summarized here and also discusses the RBD), and would therefore likely elicit a similar response targeting the RBD.

So TL;DR: yes, my understanding is that the South African variant is worrisome in that it might allow for escape from the current mRNA vaccines used in the USA.

Of course, Pfizer and/or Moderna could (and probably will, if the situation gets dire enough) just rejigger the mRNA target to take the variant into account, but that would require re-immunizing everyone.

Would love to hear mofro's thoughts on the matter.

[The AD]

I think this virus is going to keep the virology eggheads busy for many years.

[old goat]

I've hunted around some since my earlier post, it's apparently still at least partly speculation (and possibly wrong) but what the strain seems to have evolved is resistance to antibodies, not the vaccine per se. With so much of the virus around it has billions of opportunities to mutate so I guess it's not that surprising that it would do so. We need to squash this shit in a hurry to stop (or at least slow down) that evolutionary process.

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.co...cine-resistant

There is also a different mutation , first identified in Denmark and present in California since May, that is being identified in LA area outbreaks. I think that's different from the South African variant, judging by the articles.

I would think that if necessary to keep up with mutations the new vaccines would undergo maybe a brief Phase 1 trial to make sure they're not lethal and then be released. What testing is done on each year's new flu vaccine.
One problem with vaccine resistant strains is the potential that people would need more than one vaccine if more than one variant is widely prevalent. Which means you have to make twice as much vaccine, or more.

[Tri-Ungulate]

There is also a different mutation , first identified in Denmark and present in California since May, that is being identified in LA area outbreaks. I think that's different from the South African variant, judging by the articles.

I would think that if necessary to keep up with mutations the new vaccines would undergo maybe a brief Phase 1 trial to make sure they're not lethal and then be released. What testing is done on each year's new flu vaccine.
One problem with vaccine resistant strains is the potential that people would need more than one vaccine if more than one variant is widely prevalent. Which means you have to make twice as much vaccine, or more.

Compounding problem though is the possibility of antibody dependent enhancement (ADE), which could potentially increase the ability of a virus to enter cells and cause a worsening of disease. Dengue virus is an example. This would not be picked up in a standard Phase I trial.

Again, mofro knows the details on this.

[neufox47]

Any of you ever play plague? More and more I feel like we are in the game. Pro tip, the key to killing all the humans in Plague is to make the disease as benign as possible in the beginning, get it to infect most of the world then mutate it to make it super deadly and vaccine resistant.


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[MontuckyFried]

I know zero about this news (or even if it's real news), I just heard it on the radio a minute ago, but they said a vaccine-resistant strain has been found, has anyone seen anything on this? That would be no bueno.

Well doy. It's a type of coronavirus, as is the common cold. It was bound to mutate at warp speed. It's precisely why we can't get too cocky about a vaccine, although I'm sure due to the mRNA nature it'll be more beneficial than not. However, it's ALSO why the entire world has just gotta suck it up at some point and get on about our business. As this thing continues to mutate, the vaccine makers will be playing whack-a-mole like they do with the flu shot, until it splits into so many strains like the cold that it's pretty much impossible to deal with all but the most common variants.

[riser4]

Any of you ever play plague? More and more I feel like we are in the game. Pro tip, the key to killing all the humans in Plague is to make the disease as benign as possible in the beginning, get it to infect most of the world then mutate it to make it super deadly and vaccine resistant.


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I stopped playing it. It felt like it was a crowd sourced bio-weapons research front. Seriously.

[Art Shirk]

first shot received two days ago. significant fatigue yesterday and serious tenderness in my entire right arm. i still feel drained this morning but pain of injection site has has gone away almost entirely. definitely felt and affected me differently than any shot i can recall having. scheduled for second round on feb 3.

Happy you snagged it but aren’t you like 20 years old or something?


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[jono]

Well doy. It's a type of coronavirus, as is the common cold. It was bound to mutate at warp speed. It's precisely why we can't get too cocky about a vaccine, although I'm sure due to the mRNA nature it'll be more beneficial than not. However, it's ALSO why the entire world has just gotta suck it up at some point and get on about our business. As this thing continues to mutate, the vaccine makers will be playing whack-a-mole like they do with the flu shot, until it splits into so many strains like the cold that it's pretty much impossible to deal with all but the most common variants.

Interesting prediction. Is it still your position that the goal is to get everyone infected at some acceptable pace? Curious to know which position is the cause and which is the effect for you.

[Mr. Mike]

Happy you snagged it but aren’t you like 20 years old or something?


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Forums

I think I recall from another post he works as an EMT or something like that so first responder. I’m working on obesity and smoking so I can qualify. Unfortunately most of the population of my state beat me to it by decades.

[MultiVerse]

Coronaviruses do not mutate at warp speed. The SARS family of coronavirus has a reduced mutation rate because of its molecular proofreading system. Coronaviruses are somewhere around 3-5 times slower to evolve than the flu.

Scientists think the mutations currently under discussion evolved in an immunocompromised patient who remained infected for more than 100 days as well as in people who underwent convalescent plasma therapy. Those circumstances accelerated the process resulting in rapid evolution.

Even if the UK, Brazil, South African variants are not a problem for the current vaccines, the virus will continue to evolve under selection pressure as more and more people acquire immunity either through vaccines or naturally.

The evolutionary process is just one of the reasons why naturally acquired herd immunity was never going to work. Herd immunity has never been achieved through naturally acquired infections. It is only possible through mass immunization.

[MontuckyFried]

Interesting prediction. Is it still your position that the goal is to get everyone infected at some acceptable pace?

Yes. Truth is, I believe the vast majority of the world's population has already had at least SOME level of exposure to COVID-19 particles of varying degrees by this point. Obviously some more than others. Healthcare workers for example have had severe exposure and it's been brutal for that segment of the population, along with the elderly in assisted living, or multi-generational living in close quarters. The rest of us, the effects haven't been nearly as dramatic*. (...*for the most part)

It's been over a year since this thing kicked off. Whatever happened to "2 weeks to slow the spread"? That I understood and was totally on board. We all were. A year later and an ever-mutating coronavirus (as is their nature), yeah. I think it's nigh time we accept reality and get on with our lives. Not saying we don't exercise caution or anything. Go ahead and get yourselves vaccinated. I just refuse to live in a state of constant fear every time the talking heads at CNN try and panic us with the headline of a newly discovered COVID strain. Those guys are STILL doing the permanent on-screen death ticker. What about a life ticker? Showing us survival stats! That could give people some more hope. But nope.

I guess I've just seen the panic here too much over the course of the main COVID thread. "New mutation discovered!" "NO!" "AAAHH!!!" "SHIT!" I do find it ironic for a crowd who's had no problem hucking off cliffs, skiing balls to the wall, apres'ing at the Mangy Moose or Broken Spoke to sling some D with some new strange, and overall living incredibly risky mountain lifestyles (FKNA!) and then being utterly terrified over a virus that while yes, sucks, is not airborne ebola or anything. STD's never exactly scared this crowd away from anything.

[Kinnikinnick]

Yes. Truth is, I believe the vast majority of the world's population has already had at least SOME level of exposure to COVID-19 particles of varying degrees by this point. Obviously some more than others. Healthcare workers for example have had severe exposure and it's been brutal for that segment of the population, along with the elderly in assisted living, or multi-generational living in close quarters. The rest of us, the effects haven't been nearly as dramatic*. (...*for the most part)

It's been over a year since this thing kicked off. Whatever happened to "2 weeks to slow the spread"? That I understood and was totally on board. We all were. A year later and an ever-mutating coronavirus (as is their nature), yeah. I think it's nigh time we accept reality and get on with our lives. Not saying we don't exercise caution or anything. I just refuse to live in a state of constant fear every time the talking heads at CNN try and panic us with the headline of a newly discovered COVID strain. Those guys are STILL doing the permanent on-screen death ticker. What about a life ticker? Showing us survival stats! That could give people some more hope. But nope.

I guess I've just seen the panic here too much over the course of the main COVID thread. "New mutation discovered!" "NO!" "AAAHH!!!" "SHIT!" I do find it ironic for a crowd who's had no problem hucking off cliffs, skiing balls to the wall, apres'ing at the Mangy Moose or Broken Spoke to sling some D with some new strange, and overall living incredibly risky mountain lifestyles (FKNA!) and then being utterly terrified over a virus that while yes, sucks, is not airborne ebola or anything. STD's never exactly scared this crowd away from anything.

Your intellect is severely lacking. Wont bother explaining things to you.

Its like the rest of us are dealing with 50m 5 year olds who lack comprehension and critical thinking skills but are convinced that they should have an equal say in everything.




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[MultiVerse]

Yes. Truth is, I believe the vast majority of the world's population has already had at least SOME level of exposure to COVID-19 particles of varying degrees by this point.)

This is a popular right wing talking point that began back in April and it has been consistently proven wrong so far. At some point MontuckyFried might be right because of a self fulfilling prophecy.

Or, since we now have vaccines the question is do we have the will to stop the pandemic from becoming endemic? The answer is probably not due to misinformation. Below are the most popular COVID misinformation talking points that thrived in Parler. These 'tags' were reposted thousands of times with virtually zero pushback or difference of opinion:

#OPENAMERICANOW !!
We have the Medicines !!
We have the logistics/hospitals !!
#KidsAreSafe
#NoVaccineForMe !!
We already are at #herdimmunity
#NoMask =Healthy
#Mask =Sick, vulnerable or terrorist.
#NoContactTracingForMe
#Science
#billgatesbioterrorist
Ask #DrJudyAMikovits and about #FauciTheFraud !
#USA USA USA!
#MAGA #MAGA2020

[skaredshtles]

Well doy. It's a type of coronavirus, as is the common cold. It was bound to mutate at warp speed. It's precisely why we can't get too cocky about a vaccine, although I'm sure due to the mRNA nature it'll be more beneficial than not. However, it's ALSO why the entire world has just gotta suck it up at some point and get on about our business. As this thing continues to mutate, the vaccine makers will be playing whack-a-mole like they do with the flu shot, until it splits into so many strains like the cold that it's pretty much impossible to deal with all but the most common variants.

This is your conclusion? JHFC.

[Mofro261]

Well doy. It's a type of coronavirus, as is the common cold. It was bound to mutate at warp speed. It's precisely why we can't get too cocky about a vaccine, although I'm sure due to the mRNA nature it'll be more beneficial than not. However, it's ALSO why the entire world has just gotta suck it up at some point and get on about our business. As this thing continues to mutate, the vaccine makers will be playing whack-a-mole like they do with the flu shot, until it splits into so many strains like the cold that it's pretty much impossible to deal with all but the most common variants.

Whatever it is you do for work... you should stick to it. Despite repeated attempts to help you out by others in these threads, the science doesn't appear to be within your grasp.

[jono]

Yes.

I expected so, but thanks for confirming. It looks like the problem you're having is a misunderstanding of how mutation occurs. It's been known from very early on that this virus is itself mutation-resistant as Multiverse described, but of course resistance is not a guarantee.

So mutation potential is unknown. But what we do know is that mutation can happen during reproduction. So every infection produces about a trillion chances, so spreading the virus increases the chance of mutation in proportion to the increase in immunity as long as no mutation arises that overcomes existing immunity, which would be a complete restart: all prior immunity would be irrelevant and whatever progress toward herd immunity would be destroyed. So the math doesn't work: either this thing is mutating regularly, in which case spread increases mutations further and there can never be any benefit to spread. Or it's mutating slowly, in which case we may have time to eradicate it by preventing spread. Either way there is no benefit to spread and there is significant risk.

I think it's nigh time we accept reality and get on with our lives.

Me too. Can you live up to that goal when doing so requires learning facts that conflict with your present perspective?

I'm not afraid. There are no bad conditions, only bad gear. Even if this thing were to become 10 distinct variations with no overlap in immunity and all more contagious than measles, it would still be perfectly possible to avoid catching it through aerosols. It just requires a good mask. That's a reality that can be accepted and we can all get on with our lives.

400k dead may be less expensive than the other impacts to our society. Let's assume so. How many trillions of dollars would be the right number before you were willing to put on a good mask for a while? How much would we have to pay you personally not to collaborate with the virus?

[Danno]

I'm not a scientist nor am I an epidemiologist. I have learned that when those are the topics, I should keep quiet and listen to the experts.

If 2 purported experts sharply disagree, I use critical thinking skills to evaluate what each is saying and what their possible motivations might be. That is the only place I might interject some of my own reasoning into a scientific/epidemiological debate such as this one, and even then, only in a limited fashion.

This points seems lost on some, who, despite no qualifications whatsoever, believe that they know the answers or believe that something they saw on FoxNews was the answer.

[The AD]

Those guys are STILL doing the permanent on-screen death ticker. What about a life ticker? Showing us survival stats! That could give people some more hope. But nope.

Now this is just silly. When the next war breaks out do you want the news to report on how many soldiers haven't been killed yet? Come on, man!

I think it's nigh time we accept reality and get on with our lives.

How about we wait and see how mass vaccination affects this thing? If that fails then it's probably time to start thinking about what the next phase is.