To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[oldnew_guy]

Well, 70% of American parents are raising special snowflakes then.

.

This is definitely the most accurate thing you have posted in days.

[altasnob]

This is definitely the most accurate thing you have posted in days.

So you too are one of these people with their heads in the sand who refuses to believe over 40% of the US will have had COVID in 2 weeks? I'm repeating this claim because I am trying to bait you all to try to explain how I am wrong about that. So far, crickets.

[uglymoney]

Every study out there indicates the combination of vaccination + booster + infection produces the most robust immune response. Preferably in that order. So while getting tested for antibodies might satisfy one's curiosity or provide a bit of mental relief to parents who are afraid of the vaccine, it is kind of pointless if you are looking to maximize your protection for the almost zero risk the vaccine presents to kids.

It will be interesting to see which way they go with the emergency authorization approval of these 2-5 doses. I don't have a guess. I wish my almost 12 yo daughter could have opted for the larger dose instead of the same microdose 6 yo's get.

I know for my daughter, who we think had Omicron and passed it on to my wife who was fastracked for a fast PCR test at the University of Iowa and then immediately given monoclonal antibodies when it was postive (but interestingly I was never symptomatic or positive on the home tests and ineligible at the time for a PCR because they were slammed and I had no symptoms), but unfortunately we couldn't get the pcr test for the girl before the symptoms quickly resolved and she was negative on the at home tests we did, we will still get her the 30 mcg adult booster dose on top of the two 10 mcg kids doses she received because she is still 11 for a couple more months. If it is a omicron specific booster that would be better yet.

Ymmv. The 30% figure for 5-11 yo boggles my mind.

This ended up being a skate for us, not a slog. Thank you science and technology.

Edit to add. My cousins wife died from the Delta variant and my parents were attending a funeral for her while the wife was getting over her Omicron covids rather quickly. Both had conditions which qualified them for monoclonal antibodies. The vaccinated one went skiing after quarantine and testing negative, the unvaccinated one is gone. She was 51, in earlier posts I said she was in her 40's, so that is a correction.

[oldnew_guy]

So you too are one of these people with their heads in the sand who refuses to believe over 40% of the US will have had COVID in 2 weeks? I'm repeating this claim because I am trying to bait you all to try to explain how I am wrong about that. So far, crickets.

Ah yes, a lawyer trying to get me to prove a negative. Ok.

The answer is that I don’t give a shit because you haven’t shown me it’s relevance to my kids getting vaccinated.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Ah yes, a lawyer trying to get me to prove a negative. Ok.

The answer is that I don’t give a shit because you haven’t shown me it’s relevance to my kids getting vaccinated.

Wow, altaslob just admitted that he’s trolling. I didn’t put him on ignore but don’t care what he posts, none of it is original and it’s just a giant wheel of circular argument. There’s also the matter of him admitting that he’s trolling and that’s what I’ve suspected for a long time


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[altasnob]

It's not trolling. The true number of COVID infections in the US is an incredibly important detail. And one that I believe mainstream media is ignoring, as is a lot of our government. I'd honestly love to hear from someone smart who thinks Trevor Beford is wrong and why.

[jono]

Nobody cares. If you want to stir some controversy you should read through Mofro's post of the recent reinfection rates reported out of the UK in January. Two thirds of positives in a large surveillance study being reinfection seems like an amazingly high rate. As if previous infection didn't mean a thing for omicron and the prior infected were relying on that exclusively. I'm sure some people still will, but I'm totally unsurprised that you're not getting bites on that line.

[skaredshtles]

Too costly. Involves drawing and analyzing blood. As far as I know, if you want your blood analyzed for antibodies you have to pay out of pocket for that.

You can get it analyzed for free if you give blood. Win-win.

[altasnob]

Nobody cares.

Nobody cares? Nobody cares that Omicron has infected more people dramatically faster than any virus Earth has ever seen (well, at least that we know about)?

I read Mofro's BC Omicron study. As I understood the take away from that study is that prior infection of Delta, Alpha, ect., did not prevent Omicron infection, regardless of vaccination status. Also, I believe in that study who was previously infected, and who was not, was based being confirmed positive for COVID. So in reality, a lot of people who told the study they never had COVID actually did have COVID.

[riser4]

You can get it analyzed for free if you give blood. Win-win.

I'm signed up to donate Friday after work.

[altasnob]

You can get it analyzed for free if you give blood. Win-win.

Good to know. Not really helpful for those under 18 though.

[The AD]

And that 40% number is an underestimate. The true number is likely much, much, higher.

I'd honestly love to hear from someone smart who thinks Trevor Beford is wrong and why.

Wait, didn't the 40% number come from Trevor Bedford? If you think the actual number is "much, much higer" then it seems like you're the one saying that Trevor Bedford is wrong.

[riser4]

Good to know. Not really helpful for those under 18 though.

Is this like some kind of tic? Fuck off.

[uglymoney]

With all these unvaccinated people having tested positive, or having past infections they know about, or didn't know about, unvaccinated people still make up the majority of hospitalizations, even though they are a minority, prior infection or not. That group, who was more likely to have had an infection, and thus natural immunity, is still clogging the pipes.

So natural infection induced immunity/protection is a thing of course. But it is super clear that it sucks compared to immunization or hybrid immunity.

[altasnob]

Wait, didn't the 40% number come from Trevor Bedford? If you think the actual number is "much, much higer" then it seems like you're the one saying that Trevor Bedford is wrong.

To be specific, Trevor Bedford said between 36-46%. I have been using 40% to error on the underside. And that 36-46% is infected by Omicron. To find the true number of ALL COVID infections you have to add Delta, Alpha, ect. to this. I haven't seen Bedford make any claim to total infected for the entire pandemic, but 50% of America seems to be like an underestimate.

[seano732]

Well, you hate to see it: “ Army begins discharging soldiers who refuse Covid 19 vaccines”.
https://www.axios.com/army-discharge...59827b9e8.html

[The AD]

To be specific, Trevor Bedford said between 36-46%. I have been using 40% to error on the underside. And that 36-46% is infected by Omicron. To find the true number of ALL COVID infections you have to add Delta, Alpha, ect. to this.

Of course the question is how much protection going forward is having had Covid a year ago going to give someone?

[subtle plague]

Mebbe his career as a fry cook ain't panning out the way he'd hoped.

Heh. Panning.

[altasnob]

Of course the question is how much protection going forward is having had Covid a year ago going to give someone?

True. A person who had COVID a year ago may not be protected of anything today. So I guess what we really should care about today is how many people have been infected with Omicron, and how many people still have immunity from an infection prior to Omicron. The US had 56 million COVID infections on January 1, prior to the Omicron wave. We know 56 million is not the true number, and that the true number is much higher. Now lets play it safe and assume most of those with COVID infections PRIOR to the Omicron wave have no immunity to Omicron (unless vaccinated). But even playing it safe, it's still a bunch of people with robust natural immunity that you should add to the Omicron infected group. How many, I can't comment because Trevor Bedford hasn't done a post on this. But I think it's safe to say by mid-February, 50% of America will have developed immunity through natural infection. That's regardless of vaccination status.

This is why you are starting to see leaders around the world say fuck it. Will people still be dying of COVID come, say, May? Yes, because there still will be a small group who are unvacinated who somehow managed to not get infected by this Omicron wave, and have no previous natural infection immunity. But it should be a small enough number that our hospital system can handle it.

[The AD]

I know it's premature because the middle of February is still a couple weeks off, but nowhere near 50% of people I speak to regularly have had Covid yet (I suppose with the caveat "that they know of"). I realize this is purely anecdotal evidence, but I'm just having a hard time swallowing that half the country will have had Covid by that time.

[altasnob]

If we're going to discuss anecdotal evidence, just look at TGR and how many people in the last couple of weeks have spouted up to say they had COVID. A dramatic increase compared to previously during the pandemic. I've had a bunch in my circle recently with confirmed infections, all fully vaccinated, all taking the necessary precautions. The US peaked on Jan 17, and Washington peaked a day or so ago, so we are now on the decline.

To date, over 23% of the US has had confirmed COVID cases. Bedford uses 1 out of 4 or 1 out of 5 ratios to find the true numbers. We don't even have to use that to get to 50%.

[bodywhomper]

What is the real significance of “already had covid” for the sake of this discussion?

[The AD]

What is the real significance of “already had covid” for the sake of this discussion?

The idea being that we're getting to the point where a very large percentage of the population will have some degree of protection against Covid due to a combination of being naturally infected or through vaccines.

[LongShortLong]

Looking at ourworldindata, US has 72 million confirmed infections to date. Using Trevor's 5x number makes 360 million infections. Do you see a problem? There's only 330 million of us. So let's toss that 5x number.

I think alta's trying to argue the pandemic is over, and I don't see it. The omicron surge is about over, maybe we got a 25% population boost to immunity. Meanwhile, there seems to be a half-life to infection protection of 6-8 months (warning, I didn't do the math). So, if you think we were at say 50% protection overall in December, the +25% we just got will be waned away by summer (half of 50+25 leaves 30 or 40%). People are loosening up on protection, giving covid a further boost. If we don't get a summer wave, we'll almost certainly have a winter wave, and we may get both.

I think people want it to be over, and politicians want it to be over, and motivated reasoning clouds their thinking.

[bodywhomper]

I don’t buy it either. Maybe turn down some of the recommendations and mandates soon, depending on prevalence and hospitalization #s.

There seems to be a high prevalence of reinfection with omicron which apparently partially varies based on severity of previous infection, the variant of previous infection, timing of previous infection, and the current variant of exposure.

There are 3 variants of omicron circulating. I saw the preprint of household transmission in Denmark of omicron ba1 and ba2 that looked at susceptibility and transmissibility, but I didn’t see the data parse out reinfection info for that unvaxed or those that had previous breakthrough.