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  1. #17551
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    Quote Originally Posted by Summit View Post
    I'm still having trouble believing the SA data showing Omicron went from 1% to 90% in about 15 days. That can't be right. Measles would be jelous.
    Trevor Bedford addresses this question on his twitter. Rt relies on both transmissibility and immune escape. In other words, just because Omicron is spreading fast does not mean it is more transmissible than Delta, but could be a combination of transmissibility and getting around immunity. Also says estimates of current fitness advantage of Omicron are likely to get lower in the coming days as bias from preferential sequencing eases as more surveillance samples are sequenced. He ultimately does not think it is likely that Omicron is as transmissible as Delta and is more likely to fall near Gamma (because Omicron lacks some of the mutations that make Delta so transmissible). Not necessarily good news because he thinks Omicron's immune escape is driving the spread. Shown here in a graph:



    I like this graph he shared which points to where we need the vaccines to go:


  2. #17552
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    Yesterday there was a family of fatties at the local public indoor market. Everyone was morbidly obese and unmasked. Dad was especially interesting, embroidered skinny jeans with his flabby muffin top spilling over the waistband. American flag hat and backpack. He was also carrying a 10” Bowie knife on his belt and you could tell mom and dad were spoiling for a fight.

    I’m not thrilled about the irony of masking in indoor places with people eating unmasked a few feet away but rules are rules and we’re all in this together.

    People talked about masking as virtue signaling last year, now it’s swung the other way. People unmasked when the vast majority are masked because of mandates. Virtual signaling that you’re a patriotic freedom lover and don’t care about others health.


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  3. #17553
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    Quote Originally Posted by altasnob View Post
    Trevor Bedford addresses this question on his twitter. Rt relies on both transmissibility and immune escape. In other words, just because Omicron is spreading fast does not mean it is more transmissible than Delta, but could be a combination of transmissibility and getting around immunity. Also says estimates of current fitness advantage of Omicron are likely to get lower in the coming days as bias from preferential sequencing eases as more surveillance samples are sequenced. He ultimately does not think it is likely that Omicron is as transmissible as Delta and is more likely to fall near Gamma (because Omicron lacks some of the mutations that make Delta so transmissible). Shown here in a graph:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FFiMrAtVEAsHG0m

    I like this graph he shared which points to where we need the vaccines to go:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FEWwT43V...jpg&name=large
    Yes, I'm well aware of these concepts, but I still have having trouble believing the immune escape and R0 combination required to generate the SA data. I think it is a sampling issue. Otherwise, as I said, Measles would be jealous (and we might be proper fuct unless virulence took a dive).

    As to the vaccine target map, which is based on uptake, well, kinda. That's just one thing to look at. You also have to consider population risk factors and uptake in target populations. For variant prevention you also have to consider the efficacy of the vaccines deployed to some extent.

    However, for variant prevention, this map is arguably as or more important than the total vaccine uptake map, but it is very politically incorrect to discuss in the open.


    (I *heart* OWID)
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  4. #17554
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    Quote Originally Posted by rod9301 View Post
    I was in Safeway the other day around lunch time a whole bunch of high school kids came in, to get stuff for luck i guess, none had a mask.

    Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk
    An interesting observation.
    Your talking about the Safeway in Truckee - down the street from the high school?

    Let me know if it’s a trend.

    Mall mask behavior was interesting to observe at Meadowwoods mall last weekend
    Own your fail. ~Jer~

  5. #17555
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    politically incorrect for whom? The Christian churches that were anti-condom for years?

  6. #17556
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    politically incorrect for whom? The Christian churches that were anti-condom for years?
    For many many power structures and narrative orchestrators, we need not pretend HIV prevalence is unifactorial. But sure, you do a religious demographic overlay map and you will piss off the Catholic power structures although South Africa and Botswana are mostly Protestant. My message is that it is a hard subject to discuss while being critical to the consideration of new variants. The immunocompromised are viral mutation factories.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  7. #17557
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    Quote Originally Posted by Summit View Post
    I think it is a sampling issue.
    This is above my pay grade, but on this specific issue he says, "Note that these estimates of current fitness advantage of Omicron are very likely to get lower in the coming days as bias from preferential sequencing eases as more surveillance samples are sequenced." "I'd hope for modeling work using this S dropout data to better quantify relative fitness of Omicron vs Delta in the following days."

    https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1464353251147481089

  8. #17558
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    Quote Originally Posted by altasnob View Post
    Getting close to the end of the Greek alphabet with all this letter skipping. So what alphabet comes up next to name the variants? I vote for Basque so we don't have any confusion with world leaders.
    "I'll have Uve Bikoitza with a side of Hatxe, and can we get a plate of Erre for the whole table?"

  9. #17559
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    Quote Originally Posted by altasnob View Post
    This is above my pay grade, but on this specific issue he says, "Note that these estimates of current fitness advantage of Omicron are very likely to get lower in the coming days as bias from preferential sequencing eases as more surveillance samples are sequenced." "I'd hope for modeling work using this S dropout data to better quantify relative fitness of Omicron vs Delta in the following days."

    https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1464353251147481089
    Interesting read. I hope he's wrong on the estimates and right on it changing. But the virus doesn't care about feels.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  10. #17560
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    My buddy in Greece told me they are mandating vaccines for 60yr olds and older. 100€ fine per month they aren’t vaccinated.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...pm-2021-11-30/

    What happens for those who refuse and also don’t pay the fine?

    Jail? I’m all about vaccine mandates but once you start rounding up and imprisoning the unvaccinated it sorts of crosses a line (in my opinion)


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  11. #17561
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    Quote Originally Posted by AK47bp View Post
    What happens for those who refuse and also don’t pay the fine?

    Jail? I’m all about vaccine mandates but once you start rounding up and imprisoning the unvaccinated it sorts of crosses a line (in my opinion)
    We used to do exactly that for Smallpox. In fact, there was a SCOTUS case about it. Guy was fine $5 for refusing, refuse to pay, was sent to jail. SCOTUS gave thumbs up. Jacobsen vs Mass 1905
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  12. #17562
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    Quote Originally Posted by AK47bp View Post
    My buddy in Greece told me they are mandating vaccines for 60yr olds and older. 100€ fine per month they aren’t vaccinated.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...pm-2021-11-30/

    What happens for those who refuse and also don’t pay the fine?

    Jail? I’m all about vaccine mandates but once you start rounding up and imprisoning the unvaccinated it sorts of crosses a line (in my opinion)


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Did the article say that the unvaccinated seniors would be jailed? Maybe they will just forfeit 100 euros of their pension. Maybe if they don’t pay the fine they’ll be denied care. I guess we’ll find out.


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  13. #17563
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    Quote Originally Posted by AK47bp View Post
    My buddy in Greece told me they are mandating vaccines for 60yr olds and older. 100€ fine per month they aren’t vaccinated.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...pm-2021-11-30/

    What happens for those who refuse and also don’t pay the fine?

    Jail? I’m all about vaccine mandates but once you start rounding up and imprisoning the unvaccinated it sorts of crosses a line (in my opinion)
    I'd imagine there are much easier mechanisms to collect the money: wage garnishment, deducting it from retirement checks, etc.

  14. #17564
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    Quote Originally Posted by MagnificentUnicorn View Post
    Did the article say that the unvaccinated seniors would be jailed? Maybe they will just forfeit 100 euros of their pension. Maybe if they don’t pay the fine they’ll be denied care. I guess we’ll find out.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    It didn’t say. I’m speculating.

    Greece is a financial mess. 100€ is a lot of money over there for the average Greek.


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  15. #17565
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tri-Ungulate View Post
    Lulz, it's so fucking obvious what MF is trying to peddle.
    Those unclean yellow peril virus engineers, bending the semantic agenda to extend their evil political ends, heaven forbid.
    Next, he'll have a full Facebook exposé complete with cellphone pictures of his local hospital.
    We can almost always count on MF to bring in the completely moranic right-wing talking points...

  16. #17566
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    Quote Originally Posted by AK47bp View Post

    Greece is a financial mess. 100€ is a lot of money over there for the average Greek.
    Yes. Luckily there's a very easy way to avoid paying the fine.

  17. #17567
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    Quote Originally Posted by The AD View Post
    Yes. Luckily there's a very easy way to avoid paying the fine.
    Why do you hate freedom?????
    What we have here is an intelligence failure. You may be familiar with staring directly at that when shaving. .
    -Ottime
    One man can only push so many boulders up hills at one time.
    -BMillsSkier

  18. #17568
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    Quote Originally Posted by Summit View Post
    Yes, I'm well aware of these concepts, but I still have having trouble believing the immune escape and R0 combination required to generate the SA data. I think it is a sampling issue. Otherwise, as I said, Measles would be jealous (and we might be proper fuct unless virulence took a dive).


    (I *heart* OWID)
    Have there been any known fatalities from Omicron yet? Google as of two days ago says no. Is there any evidence yet to dash my (unrealistic) hope that this thing is far less severe but more transmissible and it burns through the world basically ending the pandemic?

  19. #17569
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    Quote Originally Posted by seano732 View Post
    Why do you hate freedom?????
    Hey, we've always been told that freedom isn't free. This is just one more example of that.

  20. #17570
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    Quote Originally Posted by Summit View Post
    Yes, I'm well aware of these concepts, but I still have having trouble believing the immune escape and R0 combination required to generate the SA data. I think it is a sampling issue. Otherwise, as I said, Measles would be jealous (and we might be proper fuct unless virulence took a dive).

    As to the vaccine target map, which is based on uptake, well, kinda. That's just one thing to look at. You also have to consider population risk factors and uptake in target populations. For variant prevention you also have to consider the efficacy of the vaccines deployed to some extent.

    However, for variant prevention, this map is arguably as or more important than the total vaccine uptake map, but it is very politically incorrect to discuss in the open.


    (I *heart* OWID)
    How are the numbers out of SA factoring in for you? I'm similarly hopeful that there are some sampling issues at work there, probably including an anomoly at the low point, but wouldn't measles be jealous of a jump from 312 to 8561 in nine days? Getting down to 312 cases as omicron was starting off (just when SA was basking in their recent victory) might make getting to 90% omicron unusually easy. One way or another, this seems like (partly, at least) an example of LSL's oft-repeated case for heterogeneity in spread.

    https://sacoronavirus.co.za/category/daily-cases/

  21. #17571
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    I have a reasonable picture of US surveillance.

    I am not going to pretend I understand SA surveillance. Heterogeneity in spread may also be coupled with profound multifactorial heterogeneity in surveillance.

    1st Omicron case in California.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  22. #17572
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    Quote Originally Posted by Summit View Post
    I am not going to pretend I understand SA surveillance. Heterogeneity in spread may also be coupled with profound multifactorial heterogeneity in surveillance.
    That's what I'm hoping. Don't know how realistic it is, but the numbers don't seem inconsistent with that, anyway.

  23. #17573
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    I’m in the post-jab waiting area; Pfizer. Hoping for the best, but the next 24 hours might mildly suck.

  24. #17574
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    Quote Originally Posted by bobz View Post
    I’m in the post-jab waiting area; Pfizer. Hoping for the best, but the next 24 hours might mildly suck.
    You’ll be fine


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  25. #17575
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    Quote Originally Posted by bobz View Post
    I’m in the post-jab waiting area; Pfizer. Hoping for the best, but the next 24 hours might mildly suck.
    Beats intubation! Thank you for helping society and yourself..
    Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!

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