To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[skiJ]

https://www.thelancet.com/action/sho...2821%2902183-8


"Effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections waned during the
6 months of this study. Effectiveness against hospital
admissions in all age groups did not wane over the
duration of the study. These findings are consistent with
preliminary reports from the Israel Ministry of Health
and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
showing reductions in effectiveness of BNT162b2 against
infections 5 months or longer after being fully vaccinated,
but consistently high estimates against COVID-19-
related hospital admissions and severe disease up until
July, 2021.24–27 The most recent report from August, 2021,
from Israel, however, suggests that some reduction in
effectiveness against hospital admissions has been

observed among older people (≥65 years) roughly
6 months after receiving the second dose of BNT162b2.31
Thus, long-term effectiveness data against severe
outcomes should be continuously monitored in our
study population and globally. "


Our results reiterate in a real-world US setting that
vaccination with BNT162b2 remains an essential tool for
preventing COVID-19, especially COVID-19-associated
hospital admissions, caused by all current variants of
concern. Along with other emerging evidence,9,14–16,23
our results suggest that despite early effectiveness of
BNT162b2 against delta and other variants of concern,
effectiveness against infection erodes steadily in the
months after receipt of the second dose. Waning
effectiveness and an increased number of infections
6–12 months after the second dose—along with the
potential need for booster doses—was expected given
that lower neutralising antibody titres during this time
period have been observed in immunogenicity studies.34–36

Waning has been observed for both mRNA-based
(Pfizer–BioNTech and Moderna) COVID-19 vaccines,26,27
and is consistent with studies of other coronaviruses.37
Reassuringly, early phase 1 data show that a third booster
dose of the current BNT162b2 vaccine given 6 months
after the second dose elicited neutralising antibody titres
against the original SARS-CoV-2 wild-type strain, beta,
and delta, which were several times higher than after
two primary doses.34,35 Modelling studies have predicted
that these increases in neutralising antibody titres
will restore high amounts of vaccine effectiveness.36
Moreover, early unpublished data from an Israeli health
maintenance organisation (Maccabi Health Services)
suggest that a third booster dose is highly effective in a
setting in which the delta variant accounts for nearly all
cases.38,39 These findings suggest that boosting with the
current BNT162b2 vaccine rather than a delta-specific
construct might be effective. Considerations of booster
doses should also account for COVID-19 supply, as
priority populations in some countries or subnational
settings have not yet received a primary vaccination
series.40


from paragraph 3 -

"Reassuringly, early phase 1 data show that a third booster
dose of the current BNT162b2 vaccine given 6 months
after the second dose elicited neutralising antibody titres
against the original SARS-CoV-2 wild-type strain, beta,
and delta, which were several times higher than after
two primary doses.34,35 Modelling studies have predicted
that these increases in neutralising antibody titres
will restore high amounts of vaccine effectiveness. "36



some of the nonsensical numbers denote footnotes -

it is probably 'splitting hairs' with Multi - that 'boosters' provide immunity beyond that produced with the initial two-dose vaccination - and
And I acknowledge that for the duration of the study, hospitalizations did not increase with a decline in immunity (as indicated by a positive PCR test - I believe
( I see nothing in the study that indicates there was any 'antibody testing' reflected in the study ) .


I agree with Multi- that getting more people vaccinated is more important to controlling the disease.

but unless there is a shortage of vaccine that I am not aware of, it is not a matter of choice
( there is enough vaccine available to vaccinate everyone And give 'boosters' ( a third dose ) )


and I agree with Adolph regarding the side-effects of a third dose. ...


respectfully. tj

postscript -

the study differentiated data by demographic groups -

was my skill or software better, I would post the other half of Figure2 from page seven -

to the argument - the "waning immunity" is comparable across the groups, Except for those Under 17 for whom the data is incomplete.

I will restate that : the data shows immunity wanes similarly across the demographic groups.

[Mofro261]

Magnitude, breadth of response, duration of response.

I do feel we've been over this ground a few times...

[old goat]

A close friend is a math professor/researcher. He loves teaching and bringing in real world application. For one of his basic classes he always uses the scene from TB5 when Johan Olofsson blasts down a huge line and they provide time, vert, and avg(?) pitch stats for various basic calculations.

I was talking to a friend in Leon County, FL. They’re experiencing the severe plummet in cases that are being discussed here, despite the college football season and huge raging parties at FSU. Their daily case rates are much less than what’s current for Nevada County, CA. NV County had its worst wave yet at the end of august and beginning of September, and was one of the worst in California, and it may be experiencing a new wave now.

huh? https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboa...unty-statewide

Meanwhile--viral loads the same in vaccinated and unvaccinated people testing positive for covid
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....28.21264262v1

I still think the key to controlling the pandemic may be nasal vaccine

[Adolf Allerbush]

Magnitude, breadth of response, duration of response.

I do feel we've been over this ground a few times...

Yes.

I agree with your MF is the FLA of TGR.

Also, his take is up there with the people I run into who claim the flu shot gave them the flu.

[XXX-er]

JFC, people are pussies. 24-hours of feeling a little under the weather is enough to be like "I'm not getting a booster to help society move on from this pandemic." We are a nation comprised of a lot of spoiled children.

IME neither shot felt any worse than a ski weekend with Garyfromterrace

[skaredshtles]

<snip> the people I run into who claim the flu shot gave them the flu.

I love when people throw that one around. Altogether amusing...

[PNWbrit]

Yes.

I agree with your MF is the FLA of TGR.

Also, his take is up there with the people I run into who claim the flu shot gave them the flu.

I recommend the ignore function.

[bodywhomper]

huh? https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboa...unty-statewide

the county's numbers are different than the state's numbers, which i've always found interesting: https://www.mynevadacounty.com/3144/COVID-19-Data

[MultiVerse]

I love when people throw that one around. Altogether amusing...

More insidious is the current alt-theory vaccinated people are filling morgues, not the unvaccinated. I chose not to ask but I suspect the person who mentioned knowing someone in the FLA refrigeration truck business answer to which category is which might be repugnant.

[SumJongGuy]

Yes.

I agree with your MF is the FLA of TGR.

Also, his take is up there with the people I run into who claim the flu shot gave them the flu.

Mods need to change the screen name to "Florida woMan"..

[old goat]

the county's numbers are different than the state's numbers, which i've always found interesting: https://www.mynevadacounty.com/3144/COVID-19-Data

What county numbers are you seeing. The graph shows cumulative cases, not new cases. I don't see a link on the country site to new cases. What am I missing?

[The AD]

I swear, it's never enough with you guys. I'm ok with the thought of an annual booster, a la the flu shot. But every few months or six months? Yeah, no. Have fun with that. It seems unnecessary that we treat all demographics the same on this one. Lets at least get some more data on it. "FoLLoW teH ScieNCE!", right?

Yes, I agree. Let's see what the data say. If it says we should get boosters every six months, so be it. You seem to think that's a deal killer, though.

[The SnowShow]

What are the chances a vaccine will be approved by November? Really want to travel to Boston for Thanksgiving with my 9 year old and don’t feel great about doing it unless she’s vaccinated.

[TNKen]

Waiting on the release of the Moderna booster for the rest of us. I'm a touch over 8 months since my last blast. Everything I am reading says do not mix Pfizer and Moderna.

[AK47bp]

Waiting on the release of the Moderna booster for the rest of us. I'm a touch over 8 months since my last blast. Everything I am reading says do not mix Pfizer and Moderna.

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[jono]

Meanwhile--viral loads the same in vaccinated and unvaccinated people testing positive for covid
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....28.21264262v1

I still think the key to controlling the pandemic may be nasal vaccine

Your position on the nasal vaccine has provided some useful insights thoughout, thanks for mentioning it again.

The statement that viral loads are the same in vax v. unvax is not supported by that study: the study notes that variation is high in both groups, which is another way of saying that the data is too noisy to provide a statistically significant answer--meaning, even if the data points one way, it's not consistent enough to reliably draw a conclusion because there is significant overlap between the two groups' 95% confidence intervals (which is to be expected when those intervals are very large due to noisy data). That is not at all the same as saying it provided the answer that the two populations are the same.

As with the Massachusetts study, there is a strong chance that looking viral loads only after sorting for positive results provides a selection bias by using a qualitative gate to sort the subjects before taking any data. They note that their study "disagrees" with the data from the UK which avoids this problem, but that statement is itself a denial of the simple fact that failing to find a significant difference is not a conclusion of equality on its own. That's a very big problem.

Here's another qualitative test: imagine we have two dump trucks full of rocks. One of them came from a river delta with a lot of sand and the other from a scree field. If we pass both piles over a screen that lets everything smaller than 1" fall through and then measure the size of the ones that don't fall through, we shouldn't be surprised if the remaining rocks have similar average sizes between the two trucks. Even though one truck started out with a much smaller average size before all its sand fell out--leaving us fewer rocks to measure.

I don't know enough about the BinaxNow kits to know if their sensitivity is likely to mean dropping a lot of borderline cases where the vaccine (or natural immunity, timing or simple luck) lowered infection level low enough to give a negative where a quantitative test might have said "mild." But this screen is a qualitative selector, and that would be expected to modify the quantitative results of the next measurement.

The fact that the unvaccinated positives outnumbered vaccinated positives by 3:1 leaves a hole in this thing that's big enough for Captain Hazelwood to drive through.

[mcski]

What is the issue w mixing moderna and pfizer ?

[highangle]

Right wing FUD.

[Tri-Ungulate]

What is the issue w mixing moderna and pfizer ?

Because Austin's sister's hairdresser saw something about it on her Instagram feed on how it makes your balls go OW!









...but really, no actual known contraindication, just lack of data at this point in re: safety (likely) and efficacy (also likely, but less clear).

In fact, there are clinical trials going on right now that are trying to address the mix-and-match strategy.

[funkendrenchman]

What are the chances a vaccine will be approved by November? Really want to travel to Boston for Thanksgiving with my 9 year old and don’t feel great about doing it unless she’s vaccinated.

From everything I've read and heard, they're thinking right around Halloween. I think the chance of your kid being fully vaccinated by Thanksgiving is a stretch, but one shot, most likely.

[AK47bp]

What are the chances a vaccine will be approved by November? Really want to travel to Boston for Thanksgiving with my 9 year old and don’t feel great about doing it unless she’s vaccinated.

Last I heard Emperor Fauci said November.

For your kid to be fully vaxxed by Thanksgiving is a long shot. Christmas maybe.


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[TBS]

First and second shot didn't impact me much. But damn...the booster hits hard.

You too?
My first shot = sore arm
Second shot = sore arm plus feeling like I had yer basic 24hr bug

Booster last Monday = 18hrs uncontrolled shivering and major body aches, followed by 24hrs of 100.5 temp and major body/head aches, followed by another 12hrs of feeling merely crappy. Felt fine on Thursday.

Put another way - my immune system quickly identified the intruder and mounted a spirited defense.

[bodywhomper]

What county numbers are you seeing. The graph shows cumulative cases, not new cases. I don't see a link on the country site to new cases. What am I missing?

the numbers that I see at the county dashboard (you have to scroll through to see some of the daily data) that differ from the state:
-99 deaths vs 90
-state reports 7 day average as 19.1 per 100k
-county new case counts (pop is 100k): for the past 7 days: 47, 26, 26, 29, 0, 0, 84, which averages to 30.2

[old goat]

Your position on the nasal vaccine has provided some useful insights thoughout, thanks for mentioning it again.

The statement that viral loads are the same in vax v. unvax is not supported by that study: the study notes that variation is high in both groups, which is another way of saying that the data is too noisy to provide a statistically significant answer--meaning, even if the data points one way, it's not consistent enough to reliably draw a conclusion because there is significant overlap between the two groups' 95% confidence intervals (which is to be expected when those intervals are very large due to noisy data). That is not at all the same as saying it provided the answer that the two populations are the same.

As with the Massachusetts study, there is a strong chance that looking viral loads only after sorting for positive results provides a selection bias by using a qualitative gate to sort the subjects before taking any data. They note that their study "disagrees" with the data from the UK which avoids this problem, but that statement is itself a denial of the simple fact that failing to find a significant difference is not a conclusion of equality on its own. That's a very big problem.

Here's another qualitative test: imagine we have two dump trucks full of rocks. One of them came from a river delta with a lot of sand and the other from a scree field. If we pass both piles over a screen that lets everything smaller than 1" fall through and then measure the size of the ones that don't fall through, we shouldn't be surprised if the remaining rocks have similar average sizes between the two trucks. Even though one truck started out with a much smaller average size before all its sand fell out--leaving us fewer rocks to measure.

I don't know enough about the BinaxNow kits to know if their sensitivity is likely to mean dropping a lot of borderline cases where the vaccine (or natural immunity, timing or simple luck) lowered infection level low enough to give a negative where a quantitative test might have said "mild." But this screen is a qualitative selector, and that would be expected to modify the quantitative results of the next measurement.

The fact that the unvaccinated positives outnumbered vaccinated positives by 3:1 leaves a hole in this thing that's big enough for Captain Hazelwood to drive through.

Regarding the "gate"--the study doesn't claim that the viral load between randomly selected vaccinated and unvaccinated people is the same. It claims that in people who test positive the viral load is the same whether the person is vaccinated or not. In the context of the study that is an appropriate question to ask. The authors do not claim that random vaccinated and unvaccinated people are equally like to transmit the virus, only that infected people are. As far as the variability--that is hardly noise. The study shows what it claims to show--that there is no significant difference in the viral loads between vaccinated and unvaccinated people. In both groups the load may be high, intermediate, or low. The message from this one study is that if you are vaccinated and test positive, whether you are symptomatic or not you are potentially infectious and need to isolate.

The most significant confounding factor in the study is the reason asymptomatic people sought testing--exposure to infected person, required for job or travel, some other reason. However, while the reason would influence the chance of testing positive it wouldn't be expected to significantly alter viral load in those who do test positive.

[AK47bp]

On the front page of Seattle news website.


Ugh. Tragic and also newsworthy. Not good for the fence sitters.

https://komonews.com/news/local/king...ohnson-vaccine



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