To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[Tri-Ungulate]

Rev,

The more nuanced answer is that yes, there is actually a news report of a bleeding issue that potentially can be temporally related to SARS CoV2 vaccine administration (it happened to a physician, and the subsequent event of a brain hemorrhage killed him). This is being investigated, and the detailed clinical case report will hopefully eventually come out.

But the association between the SARS CoV2 vaccine and acute ITP described in the article is not yet established and may be either be unrelated or perhaps an extremely rare side effect that the medical establishment needs to be aware of.

In fact, ITP has been associated with a wide variety of medications, including prior vaccines for other diseases. It is definitely a topic of investigation, and at this point a rare enough occurrence that it should not keep one from getting vaccinated.

[wooley12]

I would guess the odds are less than dying by bee sting.

[EWG]

Alright peoples. I haven't been paying attention, and like always, bmy preferred place of expertise is the padded room. Should I get a JJ shot immediately and be done in a 4 weeks, or should I hold out for moderna, work through scheduling 2 shots, and be done in 7 weeks (after the waiting period for the ramp up)?

Who knows the real difference between the shots? I know the 100% for both is mostly bull, and I know JJ was developed later and tested in tougher conditions so that might explain the numbers, but I didn't get too deep into it.

Anyone actually know how to compare the two?

And no, I didn't search back through the thread cause - good god, have to tried to do that on this one? Rough sledding.

[funkendrenchman]

Alright peoples. I haven't been paying attention, and like always, bmy preferred place of expertise is the padded room. Should I get a JJ shot immediately and be done in a 4 weeks, or should I hold out for moderna, work through scheduling 2 shots, and be done in 7 weeks (after the waiting period for the ramp up)?

Who knows the real difference between the shots? I know the 100% for both is mostly bull, and I know JJ was developed later and tested in tougher conditions so that might explain the numbers, but I didn't get too deep into it.

Anyone actually know how to compare the two?

And no, I didn't search back through the thread cause - good god, have to tried to do that on this one? Rough sledding.

Get whichever one you can get first.

[wooley12]

Sooner the better is the consensus

[skaredshtles]

Get whichever one you can get first.

This. The most important thing is getting to herd immunity, which happens much more quickly if you get whatever is available.

[EWG]

I can get both at the same time. However, the JJ ramps up to full a few weeks faster than the Moderna 2 shot process.

[bodywhomper]

Anybody read the NYT piece of cdc new rec’s about hanging out with others once vaxed?

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/08/h...uidelines.html

[The AD]

This. The most important thing is getting to herd immunity, which happens much more quickly if you get whatever is available.

Speaking of herd immunity...
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...doesnt-matter/

[skaredshtles]

I can get both at the same time. However, the JJ ramps up to full a few weeks faster than the Moderna 2 shot process.

I, personally, would go for the JJ if I had a choice...

[The AD]

Anybody read the NYT piece of cdc new rec’s about hanging out with others once vaxed?

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/08/h...uidelines.html

I like it. Maybe this is the carrot some people need to get vaccinated if they truly think wearing a damn mask is such a big deal.

[skaredshtles]

Speaking of herd immunity...
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...doesnt-matter/

That's a good article...

[bodywhomper]

My take is that the CDC is using it to incentivize vaxing, which is great, but the risk is that there will be more spread. Some of their rationale is arbitrary and mitigating risk. The extent of the mitigation is unclear.

Also, the current evidence, per my understanding, is that the vaxes will not result in herd immunity, since there is apparently no clear evidence that those that are vaxed cannot continue to spread the disease. The vax will, however, likely curb the propagation of variants and drastically reduce hospitalizations and people from suffering severe symptoms.

[MultiVerse]

Speaking of herd immunity...
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...doesnt-matter/

“This is the relevant first metric for the success of the vaccine program,” Corey says. “We need to get the vaccine into people’s arms and educate people about the importance of this … and stop talking about herd immunity.”

To underpin the point above made in the article, Brazil, a country the WSJ suggested reached herd immunity, recently saw a record 71,000 new COVID-19 cases and 1,900 deaths on March 3. Intensive Care Units (ICUs) are now at capacity in 18 of the country’s 26 states.

[jono]

I can get both at the same time. However, the JJ ramps up to full a few weeks faster than the Moderna 2 shot process.

Since "full" is slightly lower there's a decent chance the differences are mainly from taking the bulk of their data at different points in time. Maybe a small advantage to mRNA in the long run vs. convenience and predictability of side effects given only one shot. But if the long run means anything there will be boosters later on when more is known.

Take whichever one everyone else wants: at the rate they're ramping up we may get enough too soon and then no one will take them.

[Ted Striker]

I, personally, would go for the JJ if I had a choice...

because...

[skaredshtles]

because...

Single shot - get to full efficacy more quickly.

[jono]

Also, the current evidence, per my understanding, is that the vaxes will not result in herd immunity, since there is apparently no clear evidence that those that are vaxed cannot continue to spread the disease. The vax will, however, likely curb the propagation of variants and drastically reduce hospitalizations and people from suffering severe symptoms.

There are some contradictions in there. We don't curb variants without curbing spread, particularly since vaccination spread creates an environment that favors variants that are better at evading vaccinated immunity. We need to curb spread enough to overcome that effect or the net result will not help slow mutation in the long run. The good news is that "no clear evidence" doesn't mean vaccines don't curb spread. And isn't quite true--there is some clear evidence (and a lot more that's a little murky but indicates the same) that the vaccines are slowing spread.

[Danno]

Alright peoples. I haven't been paying attention, and like always, bmy preferred place of expertise is the padded room. Should I get a JJ shot immediately and be done in a 4 weeks, or should I hold out for moderna, work through scheduling 2 shots, and be done in 7 weeks (after the waiting period for the ramp up)?

Who knows the real difference between the shots? I know the 100% for both is mostly bull, and I know JJ was developed later and tested in tougher conditions so that might explain the numbers, but I didn't get too deep into it.

Anyone actually know how to compare the two?

And no, I didn't search back through the thread cause - good god, have to tried to do that on this one? Rough sledding.

get whichever one you can, and give me the appointment for the other.

I feel like I am going to be the last person I know to get vaccinated, and I'm frustrated AF.

[skaredshtles]

get whichever one you can, and give me the appointment for the other.

I feel like I am going to be the last person I know to get vaccinated, and I'm frustrated AF.

Watch - I'll get my shot before you... despite being much, much, MUCH younger than you.

[RootSkier]

because...

Because they were way late and scored a C+ in efficacy and, as someone who took 10 years to finish undergrad, I respect that.

j/k. the fact remains that the number of people hospitalized with severe covid after getting ANY of the vaccines is damn close to 0, if not 0.

[jerlane]

I can get both at the same time. However, the JJ ramps up to full a few weeks faster than the Moderna 2 shot process.

I'm not sure how much weight I would put on JJ ramping up faster. That's pretty short-sighted with limited data. If you really have the option of either one, my opinion would be to go for Moderna which at this point has stronger efficacy. 95% vs 77%.

[bodywhomper]

There are some contradictions in there. We don't curb variants without curbing spread, particularly since vaccination spread creates an environment that favors variants that are better at evading vaccinated immunity. We need to curb spread enough to overcome that effect or the net result will not help slow mutation in the long run. The good news is that "no clear evidence" doesn't mean vaccines don't curb spread. And isn't quite true--there is some clear evidence (and a lot more that's a little murky but indicates the same) that the vaccines are slowing spread.

good response!

my understanding is that the source of the variants are thought to be people that are suffering with severe symptoms for extended periods of time and they somehow infect others. if the vax curbs that type of incident from occurring, then we will be reducing the likelihood of the rate of variants from being created and spreading, which, of course, is balanced with the fact that natural selection will support the spread of variants resistant to the vax. since the thought is that "a lot" of spread/infection comes from those that are symptomatic and the vaxes are (nearly) eliminating that severity of infection, then spread should be drastically reduced. There are also the theories that the vax should drastically reduce/eliminate those that are vaxed from being asymptomatic carriers/spreaders, but there are still SMEs that are not on the same page about the hazard, vulnerability, consequences, and resultant risk.

One thing the CDC recommendation does is it has the unvaxed individual (who is trying to strictly follow the guidance) self-analyze whether they are in a higher risk group. A few weeks ago in one of the COVID threads on this forum, we got into confusion of the definition of obesity. I can't imagine the lay public figuring this shit out for themselves in a rational and non-emotionally driven manner. bring on the heuristic traps!

[EWG]

I may very well end up there. however, check this out. From the NY Times:



Vaccine trails split before and after widespread variants. All test before perform better than the afters. Maybe coincidence - BUT - check out the Novavax. Tests before were great 90-95% effective. Tests after the variants were far worse - estimates below 50% with lower bounds all the way down to 10%.

So, Moderna and Pfizer could do far worse against the variants that are starting to move through the country, whereas Johnson and Johnson seems to be holding up well - still pretty effective, and very protective against severe illness.

It's so early and done so fast that we don't know much about the apples to apples comparisons. Still kind of a crapshoot. But you could make a JJ case by saying better the one tested against the variants than the ones that are more unknown against the variances.

I mean, I think?

[wooley12]

Don't think, when you think you weaken the team.