To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[AEvospace]

I just got my regular flu shot. I'm starting to feel like a human pincushion.



I think we're gonna have two choices. Live in the woods like a hermit, or just keep getting shots forever. This is like a virus whack a mole game.

No. Just no.

[k2skier112]

KKK member on meth?

[Mofro261]

Evolution is a numbers game. That’s why reducing infections matters. It's a lottery where a random winning combination makes a mutation more infectiousness or more capable of immune evasion etc. But the mutations are often a tradeoff. It's not necessarily more infectiousness and more capable of immune evasion, it's either or.

Viruses are also often bounded by how far they can mutate. With SARS2 the spike still has to fit on the ACE receptor, for example. Because Delta is more infectiousness it's currently massively out competing all the other variants right now. That's the bad news. The good news, Delta is closer to the original Wuhan strain than the other variants of concern which means we don't need a Delta-specific vaccine.

In the future we could see a variant rise to prominence that's better at spreading in partly protected humans like the Beta or Mu variants. While that could necessitate an updated vaccine, immune evasion is typically not some catastrophic thing. It doesn't mean previous hard won protection from vaccination or infection disappears. It's more like a gradual erosion. And in the process of gaining more immune evasion the variant gives something up in return.

In terms of loss of neutralization potential, both Beta and Gamma created more "vaccine resistance" than either Alpha or Delta. Both Beta and Gamma have also been in the US since last fall/winter, but have always remained a very small percentage of cases though some states saw big increases of Gamma in winter/spring, before Alpha wiped it off the map and Delta then took over.

Mu (and Lambda) have just recreated some of the same mutations that are found in Beta and Gamma but from different parental lineages, but then so have small subsets of Alpha and Delta variants picked these up as well- it's just that so far none of these other variants have had the fitness to take off and be a dominant strain. Ie, Mu was first noted in the US back in March of this year but has remained at really low levels <0.5%.

https://outbreak.info/location-repor...lected=B.1.621

But most of this "vaccine resistant" must be more about news cycle click bait, because even with the mutations in the RBD like K417N, E484K, etc, both natural infection and vaccination still work pretty damn well at both limiting infectivity on exposure, and certainly in preventing severity of disease.

For neutralization, a certain Magnitude, or total abundance, is required. But at least as important for fast viral clearance of drifted strains, we don't want all of the focus to be on too narrow a subset of binders. It needs to be spread across enough epitopes/surfaces that these mutations become less important. Ie a high enough magnitude with a narrow focus will be prone to immune evasion but the similar magnitude with a broader focus may be able to still prevent infection. It's the power of the response being "Polyclonal"- there are multiple different binding sites for antibodies on the target antigen, and the breadth of this response helps to protect against drifted strains.

But regardless of the erosion of neutralizing potential due to antibodies still in circulation from an infectious exposure or vaccine, due by waning from peak antibody magnitude or less efficiency due to strain dirft (or combo of both), the memory b cell responses have been shown to continue to evolve (further somatic hypermutation) and these cells are quickly activated to pump out higher affinity antibodies directed against the new strains to limit disease progession and shorten the time the virus has to spread. Both natural infection and vaccination achieve this, with the side effects of vaccination still no where near the severity of disease potential from the take-your-chances approach. No one gets to pick their infectious dose.

Decent review article: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/joim.13372

Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 induced by infection or vaccination

(a) Kinetics of innate and adaptive immune responses following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Following rapid action by the innate immune system immediately after virus exposure, B and T cell responses develop within the first weeks. Short-lived IgM antibodies are produced by responding B cells initially and is followed by a more persistent and high-affinity class-switched response. (b) Production of highly diverse virus-specific antibodies. After cognate antigen encounter, activated naïve B cells enter the germinal center (GC) where they receive T cell help to generate a high-affinity antibody repertoire. Short-lived peripheral plasma cells produce most antibodies during the infection, while GC-derived memory B cells and bone marrow-resident plasma cells cooperate to provide long-lasting protection against re-infection. (c) Maturation of the antibody response following viral clearance. While the magnitude of the antibody response gradually wanes after the virus replication is controlled, the quality of the B cell response continues to improve for several months following the infection.

These variants present more a problem for Regeneron / Monoclonal therapies than make a pressing need for drifted strain boosters.

[skaredshtles]

<snip> “When I see criminals trying to take my rights and my beautiful children and everything they are going to do, you’re going to have to take my life. I’ll die on this hill.”

[summit]

Curious about HPV. Assuming you are not a pre-teen. There's a protocol for middle-aged people?

Yes, initially it was only for young people, but based on safety and efficacy data these recommendations were expanded.

Current indication for HPV vaccine Guardasil-9 is everyone 45 and under per FDA/CDC/ACIP. Note ACS doesn't yet endorse >26.

However, the thought is that 39-44% of folks are latent carriers and thus have future risk. So for them it may prevent delayed cancer risks. It also prevents transmission. If not a carrier, then it prevents becoming a carrier and future cancer risk. So, it's good for the individual and responsible for future partners.

[Game Over]

Shit- Thanks Summit. I’m gonna go get it.

[summit]

FYI Guardasil is a 3 shot series. Your insurance likely covers all of it. I got mine at a pharmacy. Second shot is 2mo later, 3rd is 6mo after the first. My arm was mildly sore for 12 hrs.

[altasnob]

Should we give booster shots to Americans, or give our supply to the rest of the world who hasn't been vaccinated? What is happening in the US is trivial when the virus is still able to mutate everywhere else. But giving our supply to other countries doesn't win any votes, even if that is the fastest path to end the pandemic.

[Bunion 2020]

You gotta admit that "If" another country had wanted to fuck with a rival then in the Media age of 2021 and the political climate of the here and now, Covid is brilliant.

Not so lethal (so far) that it kills a shitload (20%) of people but dangerous enough that most sane people would rather not get it given the outcomes some folks have had.

At the same time survivable enough that a large part of society can say its no big deal and this is all overblown, a conspiracy, fake etc etc etc.

It creates a tremendous disruption both economically as well as socially and the divisiveness is toxic. The perfect viral weapon for the Facebook era.

Should we give booster shots to Americans, or give our supply to the rest of the world who hasn't been vaccinated? What is happening in the US is trivial when the virus is still able to mutate everywhere else. But giving our supply to other countries doesn't win any votes, even if that is the fastest path to end the pandemic.

Fair question.

[Percy Rideout]

You gotta admit that "If" another country had wanted to fuck with a rival then in the Media age of 2021 and the political climate of the here and now, Covid is brilliant.

Not so lethal (so far) that it kills a shitload (20%) of people but dangerous enough that most sane people would rather not get it given the outcomes some folks have had.

At the same time survivable enough that a large part of society can say its no big deal and this is all overblown, a conspiracy, fake etc etc etc.

It creates a tremendous disruption both economically as well as socially and the divisiveness is toxic. The perfect viral weapon for the Facebook era.



Fair question.

and pontificating any more on that point makes you a conspiracy theorist.

Follow the money is always good advice.

[Salvelinusconfluentus]

Make men, men again!

GOP Candidate Suggests Forcibly Removing School Board Members Over Mask Mandates

A Republican running for office in Pennsylvania is under fire after threatening to physically remove school board members who attempt to enact mask mandates.

This past weekend, Steve Lynch, who is running for Northampton County Executive, gave a speech at a “Freedom Rally” in Harrisburg where he chillingly suggested forcibly removing elected officials who don’t do things his way.

“Forget going into these school boards with freaking data. You go into these school boards to remove them,” Lynch said, later adding, “I’m going in with 20 strong men and I’m gonna give them an option — they can leave or they can be removed,” he said.

Lynch then turned his threat into a call to arms to other dudes who apparently think “might makes right” is a valid legal argument.

He suggested that forcing school board members to resign over a rule designed to help public safety would “make men men again”:

Men, where are you? Men. Wake up, smell the coffee. Let’s go. Make men great again. Make men men again. Men, men. Let’s go, men, I need you. I need you in the coming weeks because when we walk into those school boards, we’re gonna have everything we need to do to go in there with those 9-0 school boards that voted to put these masks back on the children with no scientific — it’s done.

He added: “This is how you get stuff done.”

Lynch told the audience of 200, “When I see criminals trying to take my rights and my beautiful children and everything they are going to do, you’re going to have to take my life. I’ll die on this hill.”

And speaking of hills: The Pennsylvania Capital-Star noted that Lynch attended Trump’s “Stop the Steal” rally on Jan. 6, which preceded the storming of the U.S. Capitol.

Although Lynch said he didn’t engage in violence at the rally, he has spread discredited conspiracy theories that the riot was fomented by left-wing groups. He also said he does not believe Joe Biden fairly won the 2020 presidential election.

Lamont McClure, who is Lynch’s opponent in November, told the Capital-Star that law enforcement needs to investigate Lynch for the remarks.

He added that since Lynch “participated and tried to incite a coup to overthrow our nation,” it “doesn’t surprise me at all that he’s threatening local school boards with violence.”

HuffPost reached out to Lynch for comment but he did not immediately respond.

But Twitter users had some thoughts. (click link above to read tweets).

This is fucking horrifying.

[The AD]

A Republican running for office in Pennsylvania is under fire after threatening to physically remove school board members who attempt to enact mask mandates.

In 20-30 years this kind of thing is going to look as ridiculous as resisting racial integration in the '50s and '60s does now (and not to say it doesn't already look insane to many).

[bennymac]

As mentioned above:

[mfcf13]

and pontificating any more on that point makes you a conspiracy theorist.

Follow the money is always good advice.

Agreed. The anti-vaxxer, ivermiticin, supplement hawking nut jobs are making money hand over fist by deceiving people about the vaccine so they can sell their products.

Dr. Mercola is one of them, he's worth $100 million.

https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/co...de-down-doctor


"A fool and his money are soon parted (and quite possibly on an ICU bed)".

They kinda have it coming though, for getting their medical advice from a fucking osteopath who hasn't practiced since 2009 and has been the subject of multiple FDA investigations over the years.

[Toadman]

Snake oil sales people have been around since the dawn of time. No doubt Neanderthals were being sold an elixir by modern man to make them look more modern.

[bennymac]

Why is she so pissed about being denied a test for a fake pandemic? Why is she even requesting one?

She knows that as long as she waits a couple hours in between contradictory rants her followers will not make the connection.

[riser4]

Yes, initially it was only for young people, but based on safety and efficacy data these recommendations were expanded.

Current indication for HPV vaccine Guardasil-9 is everyone 45 and under per FDA/CDC/ACIP. Note ACS doesn't yet endorse >26.

However, the thought is that 39-44% of folks are latent carriers and thus have future risk. So for them it may prevent delayed cancer risks. It also prevents transmission. If not a carrier, then it prevents becoming a carrier and future cancer risk. So, it's good for the individual and responsible for future partners.

I'm 52.

[thedude2340]

Why is she so pissed about being denied a test for a fake pandemic? Why is she even requesting one?

She knows that as long as she waits a couple hours in between contradictory rants her followers will not make the connection.

Overuse of “literally” is shit that annoys me.

[Bunion 2020]

School started last week, many schools (private) are Mask optional.

Holy shit!!!!! Can you believe it, Covid outbreaks causing them to shut down and go remote.

Shocker.

Candace is crazy enough that she would be wild in the dark.

[yeahman]

Masks are required for K-8 in our district, and "highly recommended" in high school. Staff are required to wear them district-wide. According to my two teens, about half the teachers are actually wearing them in the high school, and almost zero kids. We're in the redneck high school though--there's probably more masking at the other one across town.

We'll see how it goes, but I'm pretty much planning on the kids bringing home delta at some point.

[bodywhomper]

Masks are required at our schools. We’re in week 3. Currently heading toward total shutdown is schools. Currently, there’s no virtual options available in CA.

My understanding is that the general policy from the state’s guidance is that 3 positive cases in a classroom = outbreak and the entire class is put into quarantine.

The state is the supplier of rapid tests to most schools. Currently, there’s a 6-8 week backlog on supply. The local testing centers are pcr only with several day backlog to make an appt and no walk-ins allowed. Rapid testing can provide quick means to augment entire classroom (or school) quarantines.

My area of the county has a pop about 80-85k people. A little less than 359 new cases last week, and a little less than 569 so far this week.

[The AD]

Why is she so pissed about being denied a test for a fake pandemic? Why is she even requesting one?

She knows that as long as she waits a couple hours in between contradictory rants her followers will not make the connection.

What a cunt.

[jono]

Should we give booster shots to Americans, or give our supply to the rest of the world who hasn't been vaccinated? What is happening in the US is trivial when the virus is still able to mutate everywhere else. But giving our supply to other countries doesn't win any votes, even if that is the fastest path to end the pandemic.

And while we're at it, 1 shot only for previously confirmed positives?

Can we trust antibody testing yet, and if so, which ones? I'm not planning to go crazy, but if I've already had my booster from delta I'd like to know it--and not waste a third dose. Tempted to pay CVS the $37 and see what it says, but haven't had a chance to find out what they use.

[altasnob]

Masks are required for K-8 in our district, and "highly recommended" in high school.

Wait, isn't that the opposite of what everyone else is doing? Masks for high school, and no masks for elementary? This article today in the Atlantic argues that based on everything we know to date, we should stop requiring masks for preschool and elementary. I send my three year old to preschool with a mask, and she's actually amazingly good at wearing it all day. She's the only one in her class who wears a mask (required for 5 and above, optional for below) and I think I'm going to stop.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...wnside/619952/

[yeahman]

Wait, isn't that the opposite of what everyone else is doing? Masks for high school, and no masks for elementary? This article today in the Atlantic argues that based on everything we know to date, we should stop requiring masks for preschool and elementary. I send my three year old to preschool with a mask, and she's actually amazingly good at wearing it all day. She's the only one in her class who wears a mask (required for 5 and above, optional for below) and I think I'm going to stop.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...wnside/619952/

Not sure what others are doing, but I guess the thinking was that since the K-8 kids did not have the option of getting vaccinated, then masks would be required.

But... a few days ago our governor issued an "emergency order" through the Department of Health and Human Services strongly discouraging schools from requiring masks, based on what they say is conflicting evidence about whether masks actually help prevent the spread among kids in classrooms, and other more definitive evidence showing that masking does have negative effects on kids. Our superintendent sent out a letter basically saying FU gov, we're sticking with the plan.

And here's another completely fucked up part of this: At the start of school, the district sent out guidelines following CDC guidance on close contacts. Basically, if a vaxxed student is exposed but has no symptoms, they do NOT need to quarantine, but if an unvaxxed student is exposed, they DO need to quarantine for 10 days. But it gets even better: Our legislature passed a law last winter outlawing "discrimination" against anybody based on vaccination status. So a couple days ago a neighboring school district, East Helena, revised their quarantine policy, probably based on advice of their lawyers, saying that ALL close contacts now need to quarantine, regardless of vax status. I have a feeling our district will have to follow suit because somebody will probably threaten a lawsuit, saying the district is breaking the "no discrimination" law by requiring unvaxxed kids to quarantine but not vaccinated kids. Just waiting for that letter to arrive.

TLDR: it's an unholy mess. Fuuuuccckkk...