Results 9,476 to 9,500 of 23206
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08-19-2021, 02:01 PM #9476
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08-19-2021, 02:04 PM #9477
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08-19-2021, 02:05 PM #9478
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08-19-2021, 02:49 PM #9479
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08-19-2021, 03:51 PM #9480Registered User
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I found this helpful to help people (including me) understand the vaccine efficacy data from Israel:
https://www.covid-datascience.com/po...are-vaccinated
After adjusting for vaccine prevalence and age:
We see quite high efficacy in all age groups, with the 80-89 group having the lowest efficacy (81.1%) and all others between 88.7% and 100%.
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08-19-2021, 03:56 PM #9481Registered User
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08-19-2021, 04:30 PM #9482
I'm starting to read more and more about people getting arrested for vaccine card fraud. Saw one case where a pharmacist was selling batches of real cards, another where fake cards were intercepted from China, and a few where individuals have been charged with trying to use fake cards. Here's one where a Florida family got fake cards for the whole gang, including for their 4- and 5-year-old kids, and got busted while trying to use them in Hawaii ($8000 in fines, and there could be more).
And Sturgis '21 just ended. South Dakota had one of the lowest case rates in the country, and it's still towards the low end, but they're now sporting the country's highest 2-week percentage increase, with Meade County (where Sturgis is) leading the way. I guess we'll see where it goes from here.
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08-19-2021, 04:31 PM #9483
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08-19-2021, 04:38 PM #9484features a sintered base
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08-19-2021, 04:44 PM #9485Banned
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08-19-2021, 04:55 PM #9486
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08-19-2021, 04:57 PM #9487
Let's put some context around Covid relative to other pathogens.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/dat...tious-diseases
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7518649/
https://unchartedterritories.tomaspu...thing-you-need
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08-19-2021, 05:35 PM #9488Registered User
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Surprised it is close to smallpox in both axis.
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08-19-2021, 05:49 PM #9489
15% case fatality rate seems way off?
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
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08-19-2021, 06:14 PM #9490
^ The 15% number is proportional with age. So it's (deaths per age group) / (cases per age group) = case-fatality rates.
Otherwise it will vary according to demographics and the current average age of COVID-19 cases. If the average infection age is lower case fatality rates are lower. If the average infection age is higher case fatality rates are higher. If there's an even distribution of cases in an older average population, like Italy, then the CFR approaches 15%. It's one reason why African countries with their younger populations haven't fared as badly as a lot of people predicted.
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08-19-2021, 06:24 PM #9491
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08-19-2021, 06:30 PM #9492
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08-19-2021, 06:33 PM #9493
Look at Table 1 in huckbucket's linked source:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7518649/
Notice how they break the CFR out by age group. Dividing Deaths (n) by Cases (n) gives the 14.1% CFR.
The difference between 1.7% and 14.1% suggests the overall average age for cases is lower than the average population age, or something to that effect.
For example, if all cases fell within the 40-49 age group the CFR would be ~0.9% and if all cases fell within the 70-79 age group the CFR would be ~26.7%.
It's one of the reasons why the 'waning immunity' story isn't quite right. Immunity definitely wanes, especially in older people, but most of what we're seeing in America and elsewhere is younger vaxxed people mixing with unvaxxed people which increases the chances of breakthrough infections.
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08-19-2021, 06:46 PM #9494
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08-19-2021, 07:24 PM #9495
Yeah it looks that way i.e. CFR with no vaccines and no treatments, and if cases are evenly distributed across all age groups.
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08-19-2021, 08:11 PM #9496
I don’t know if this has been posted, but it is an amazing read in layman’s terms.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021...-virus-do-nextForum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident
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08-19-2021, 08:48 PM #9497
Thanks for posting that. It's one of the best/most thorough descriptions of the stats that I've seen and pretty accessible. And makes a very strong case for getting vaccines to third world populations before boosters--that topic deserves more discussion about the apparent drop in efficacy coming from most vulnerable groups being the first ones dosed.
Charts in that blog speak to the vax/un-vax differences pretty well, too.
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08-19-2021, 08:55 PM #9498
This guy literally let his politics and religion kill him. It's possible he is otherwise alive today. Mind-bending.
https://www.wyff4.com/article/greenv...d-19/37350500#
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08-19-2021, 09:11 PM #9499
Back to school night tonight, meet the teachers. Etc... Lots of people, lots of masks. I counted 8 people inside the school with no masks, 2 separate families. They were the unhealthiest looking 8 people I saw all night.
sent from Utah.sigless.
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08-19-2021, 09:57 PM #9500
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