To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[MagnificentUnicorn]

^^^ Let’s all really try our best to soak this one in ^^^

I’m trying but actually dealing with this at work makes it hard


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[huckbucket]

The smartest people I know never think they’re the smartest person in the room.

[ron johnson]

The article poses the question "Natural infection vs vaccination: Which gives more protection?" and then provides recent numbers. But as before with your invalid post when you ignored the 'base rate' with your chart, the conclusions drawn by the article is only possible if the denominator is wrong because a large study following a fifth of COVID-positive Israelis after recovery indicates a 0.1% reinfection rate:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...051v1.full.pdf

https://www.timesofisrael.com/covid-...i-study-finds/

The study in the link above, which dates back to before March 2021 when Israel was not vaccinating recovered patients, suggests there had been around 800 reinfections in Israel up to that time. So unless there's another explanation, it looks like your source divided the 72 instances of reinfection since May 2021 by the total known to have recovered from the virus since the pandemic began.

Instead the numbers probably look something more like the following:

900/836,000 = ~0.1077% ←Natural reinfection rate

3,000/ 5,193,499 = ~ 0.0578% ←Vaccine reinfection rate

In other words, you have no idea and are just speculating. You can't compare natural reinfection rates over a 10 month period with vaccine reinfection rates over a 1 month period.

And I never ignored the base rate in the chart fiasco because as explained before, I was referring to the table.

[MultiVerse]

No speculation, just facts. Your source divided the number of natural reinfections over a two month period by the total (at the time) known to have recovered from the virus since the pandemic began even though it's obvious there have been many additional natural reinfections prior to May 2021.

See for yourself. Just look at the 'Recovered' numbers for Israel on worldometers. It's an obvious and easily verifiable fuckup, making yet another one of your posts invalid.

And your chart contradicted your table (which contained bad data). If an argument contains a contradiction then it is invalid by definition.

[abraham]

I don’t know the details yet but I’m assuming the mandate will be pretty strict with very few exemptions. I hope so.


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It sounds like one of the snowflakes decided she's "too philosophically inclined toward liberty" to do her job.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

It sounds like one of the snowflakes decided she's "too philosophically inclined toward liberty" to do her job.

I’m expecting a few of those people here


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[The SnowShow]

Gupta was on CNN saying the Israel Data is showing Moderna is holding up better than Pfizer FWIW.

[Dexter Rutecki]

You’re a lying sack of shit. You’ve been proven wrong, your posts are intentionally misleading and you’re try to create divisiveness. If that’s not the case you’re admitting that you’re lazy, ignorant and stupid. Which is it?


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Pretty sure this question has been posed to him a number of times in the past (see his lies about the hack of the DNC servers, for example, or any number of other Trump-related issues). I don't think those options are mutually exclusive. He's a lazy, ignorant, and stupid lying sack of shit who likes to mislead and sow division. I don't read his posts anymore (and haven't for years, but he seems to still respond to me at times).

[yeahman]

Gupta was on CNN saying the Israel Data is showing Moderna is holding up better than Pfizer FWIW.

I got Pfizer. Stopped at the pharmacy yesterday and asked if I could get a booster of Moderna. They said no. Something to do with the EUA.

[bennymac]

paging MyFuckingBrainisFried to the courtesy phone



“The stunning announcement comes as health care providers are battling a fourth wave of COVID-19 cases, this time driven by the highly contagious delta variant, in people of all ages.

"We [have] no staffed pediatric ICU beds available in Trauma Service Area E," said Stephen Love, President/CEO, Dallas-Fort Worth Hospital Council.

Officials said there are 73 confirmed COVID-19 pediatric patients hospitalized as of Thursday afternoon.

"Which is the highest level ever of pediatric COVID-19 patients we have ever treated,"

——

But hey - you said things weren’t bad in Texas and that we shouldn’t believe CNN.

“if they have Covid and need an ICU bed, we don't have one. Your child will wait for another child to die” - Texas official km

[Dexter Rutecki]

I got Pfizer. Stopped at the pharmacy yesterday and asked if I could get a booster of Moderna. They said no. Something to do with the EUA.

I guess if you tell them you're immunocompromised now they will give you a booster. I do wonder if it wouldn't already make sense for everyone to get a booster (I mean, we should get the kids vaxed first, but the data to implement kid vaxes is still not complete--and maybe we should be making a better effort to vax the rest of the world before getting Americans third shots).

[basinbeater]

Here is a video put out yesterday by the UCSF school of medicine. Pretty accessible for laymen (like me) to understand the current state of the pandemic. There are two presenters at about 15 min each, and then an extensive q and a with the moderator. There are two presenters, one a virologist from la Jolla institute, and the other an infectious disease expert from Emory university.

The basic takeaway really is that this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated. The vaccines work, the vaccines work against delta, and too many people refusing the vaccine for us to put this behind us in the foreseeable future. The magical month is past.

They address boosters, and they don't really see a need for boosters for otherwise healthy people yet, but do say boosters will be effective if it ends up being needed. Will it help vs is it needed are different. Covid infection and one dose of mRNA is the best immunity you can get right now. No data on breakthrough infection immunity being stronger yet.

The virologist did say that immunity increases more and more with each exposure. But again, the unvaccinated will be the ones that suffer. (Unless you crash your bike badly in an anti vax community and need a hospital bed).

Those were my main takeaways.

Pretty interesting.





sent from Utah.

[ron johnson]

No speculation, just facts. Your source divided the number of natural reinfections over a two month period by the total (at the time) known to have recovered from the virus since the pandemic began even though it's obvious there have been many additional natural reinfections prior to May 2021.

See for yourself. Just look at the 'Recovered' numbers for Israel on worldometers. It's an obvious and easily verifiable fuckup, making yet another one of your posts invalid.

And your chart contradicted your table (which contained bad data). If an argument contains a contradiction then it is invalid by definition.

You realize you can't compare 10 months of reinfection data to 2 months of data right? Right? You see that over a longer time period there is a lot more opportunity for reinfection?

They compared the same time period for vaccination reinfections vs natural immunity infections, which is what you should do.

[MultiVerse]

loll, they're not calculating the rate for the "same time period for vaccination reinfections vs natural immunity infections" That's the point. They're incorrectly dividing a small slice of something by the totality of something else.

In contrast, when they calculate vaccination reinfections they divide by the greatest common factor. Just look at their literal equations, as in literally how they describe them, there are no units of time in the equations:

instances of natural reinfection / total Israelis known to have recovered from the virus = % natural reinfections

instances of vax reinfection / total Israelis vaccinated = % vax reinfections

Because the equations compare 'totals' and not numbers over a span of time, 'instances of natural reinfection' should be the the total or about 900, and not 72.

Seriously, how is this not obvious?

[wooley12]

I gotta ignore people so I gotta ask. Did RJ mention that the vax makes your dick fall off?

Covid makes it soft like a rotten banana.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2021...se-impotence#1

[jono]

RJ is as tethered to the truth as Mike Lindell. It’s kind of hilarious, and sad.
A tragicomedy, if you will.
Thanks for the entertainment!

The laughs vary, but yeah, the last one was pretty funny.

[Skidog]

Ron is not a bot and AFAIK is sincere in his BS. Don't know whether that makes it better or worse.

I agree. Totally sincere.

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[Skidog]

I've beer back to wearing mask in public places (indoors) mandate or not. Lest anyone think I'm a trumptard..

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[LongShortLong]

Covid infection and one dose of mRNA is the best immunity you can get right now.

To be clear, this is not a desirable approach. Only useful for those who've already had the misfortune of Covid infection.

And tonight's TWiV podcast ("Clinical Update"), Dr. Griffin reports on a study saying Covid plus 2 shots has better clinical outcomes. Blah Blah antibodies, correlates of protection, no proof of correlation

[LongShortLong]

I've beer back to wearing mask in public places (indoors) mandate or not. Lest anyone think I'm a trumptard..

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Step it up. Mask outdoors for virtue signalling. Don't go indoors. N95 indoors when you can't avoid indoors.

[MultiVerse]

To be clear, this is not a desirable approach. Only useful for those who've already had the misfortune of Covid infection.

And tonight's TWiV podcast ("Clinical Update"), Dr. Griffin reports on a study saying Covid plus 2 shots has better clinical outcomes. Blah Blah antibodies, correlates of protection, no proof of correlation

Taking prior Covid infection out of it, yet Another wrinkle comes from a new study showing a combination of different vaccines is not only safe but elicits a stronger immune response:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...357-X/fulltext

[old goat]

Taking prior Covid infection out of it, yet Another wrinkle comes from a new study showing a combination of different vaccines is not only safe but elicits a stronger immune response:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...357-X/fulltext

Compared antibody levels and T cell activity after 2 AZ shots, 2 Pfizer shots, or 1 AZ followed by 1 Pfizer. The latter had higher levels. Clinical outcomes were not looked at. The findings can't be extrapolated to other vaccine combinations. I don't know if the differences in antibody levels and t cell activity are big enough to be significant for infection, hospitalization or death.

[MultiVerse]

Sure, not extrapolated but if combinatorics are your thing then you could use this study in your grant proposal to study other variations. FWIW, outside the U.S. lots of mixing and matching of vaccines happened so perhaps the results are a positive sign even if not specifically applicable.

It also begs the question if a booster shot should be something other than the initial jab(s).

[basinbeater]

To be clear, this is not a desirable approach. Only useful for those who've already had the misfortune of Covid infection.

Agreed 100%.

sent from Utah.

[bennymac]

Prior to vaccines I suggested we induce immunity through exposure to the virus but not by using the respiratory system.

Is it time for my “butt chug the covid” idea as a booster?