To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[summit]

Typically flu is characterized by true febrile illness, unlike many other seasonal respiratory viruses which are low grade or no temp (<100). Flu is pretty easy to spot clinically.

Expanding on this clinical view, and this is decidedly so for the clinical flu you see, but... while a lot of flu is sub-clinical, which you know, most are not aware of the data suggesting most flu cases may be asymptomatic.

Drs. Fragaszy's (PhD) and Hayward's (MD) works on PIPS an Flu Watch (and now Virus Watch) cohort studies out of England are worth the look. Their UCL group's work is pretty amazing not because of the annual 18% attack rate (in the unvaccinated), but that 77% of cases were asymptomatic in that study... some other works showed 25-50% and this likely varies by year/lineage (Flu Watch was looking at 2009 H1N1 vs we have H3N2 predominant this year so far). From their followup work, crossprotective T cell mediated immunity seemed to drive lower symptomatic rates. This data is key because underestimating asymptomatic cases leads to overestimating severity and missing transmissions, as we saw with early COVID data as well.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...034-7/fulltext
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5837336/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4476562/
https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10151113/

From the same peeps, I always like empirical evidence for hand hygiene applied from past datasets to speculate on the now (washing hands prevents common human coronavirus infection, will be interesting to see if Virus Watch data shows this for COVID)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8243225/
And empirical data for eye protection with COVID
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....29.22272997v1

[jono]

The hand washing is interesting statistically-speaking. The study looked at self-reported levels of hand washing and found correlation to moderate levels but no strong evidence for an increase at higher levels. Probably at least partly reflects diminishing returns, but it's also probable that moderate or greater hand washing correlated with good hygiene and better practices in other respects--including prevention of airborne transmission.

[summit]

Probably at least partly reflects diminishing returns,

Or unreliability of self-report combined with high risk occupations (vs being OCD) that drive high HH rates like HCP or serving tables. I look at epic shit tons of observer based hand hygiene data and my level of trust in it... varies. But the reliability of good HH to prevent infection is one of the strongest known for individual human preventative action.

probable that moderate or greater hand washing correlated with good hygiene and better practices in other respects--including prevention of airborne transmission.

The study period was pre-COVID and looked at HCoVs, 3 of the 4, of which 2 (HCoV-229E and HCoV-OC43) are, after rhinovirus, the next most responsible for the common cold. Being fomite/contact/droplet borne, and given the lack of common masking in the culture/area/time studied (2006-2009 UK), it is a stretch to surmise there are hygienic practices in moderate handwashers that offered protection against droplet spread. The frequent handwashing findings weren't statistically significant despite results. Moderate hand washing was statistically significant.

[jono]

Cover your cough and keep your distance from hacking people predates COVID, too. Unfortunately, so does the overzealous crusade against miasma as an allegedly superstitious belief, hence my skepticism. The higher level of washing also had a lower effectiveness (assuming we discount the higher P-value), hence "diminishing returns" as one cause. But the issues are apt to be "all of the above."

The self-reporting has problems both with accuracy and self-selection. These days it's probably more overlaid than before with personal risk assessment, too: people who take precautions because they perceive a higher risk will (if they're right) be more susceptible to start with, so studying masking and vaccines with backward-looking data gets an extra layer of confounding.

[Trackhead]

Interesting post Summit, was unaware of asymptomatic influenza but I have observation bias as all I see in clinical setting is obviously symptomatic.

[Todd Zander]

Well a little over a year later and here we are again, upon initial testing we think the 5 year old brought it home this time. Hopefully my employer lets me burn covid days caring for a loved one, or all 4 of them. Otherwise i might come home to one or more fewer children than when i started .

[old goat]

I totally dismissed it being the flu since it didn't hit me like a freight train, but on the other hand I had my flu shot, so it's possible it could have been and it was just blunted because of that. Whatever it is it's been shitty. Still not feeling well and it started last Sunday night. I don't recall having an illness drag on like this for a long time.

This is pretty funny. I wear a Fitbit, so it tracks my resting hear rate. Look at how it's increased since I've gotten sick:
Attachment 435441
How high can I go?

Oh shit. If it gets to 72 you'll die.

[Trackhead]

Oh shit. If it gets to 72 you'll die.

We will start him on a beta blocker at 65bpm.

[twat]

I am 26h in p4. What a heavy ride this time. Previous shots i had "bad" sideeffects. This one is like being kneedeep in. Muscle&joint pain... general tiredness, discomfort.... etc

I tried it sober.... no way.... there is only one solution imo
Light it up... i would prefer edibles for such a therapy

Woke up 36hr after the vaccination and was as good as before.

Happy to be fully loaded with antibodies.

And if i suddenly die, you all know in which statistic i belong..... the mysterious sudden deaths

[beer30]

Well, I tested positive today. Felt pretty good in the morning and by noon I knew something was up. Good thing we get sick days here in Germany. I’m gonna miss opening day at the ski hill though. First time I missed one since 1997

[bagtagley]

First tgiving back with family since ‘19. Fifteen people in one house. Good times and no COVID, but the youngest picked up Coxsackie and looks like the rest of us are in for a cold, all thanks to my brother’s snotty little vectors. :shrug:

[XXX-er]

Anyone got long Covid ?


https://www.brookings.edu/research/n...w-82HaYfw49wYE

I got this link from a writer i skied with who has been bed ridden for 11 months

[bodywhomper]

It’ll be interesting to see results if/when brookings updates that #. Have a friend that works there and travels for work extensively to many nations. Haven’t seen a mask on that persons face in a long time from their travel photos.

[stapes]

Well my card is finally up. Travelled over Thanksgiving to see family. Drove 14 hrs both ways w/ wife/2 kids/dog. Wife started feeling something Thanksgiving morning but has tested negative 3x including this morning. We drove back home Sunday. Yesterday (Mon) afternoon I got progressively worse chills/aches/cough/tired. Last night kinda hit me like a ton of bricks. Slept for almost 12 hrs but woke up feeling shitty still. Positive at-home test this morning. Scheduled a PCR for noon for both of us.

Feel like garbage. Hope I bounce back quickly.

[Buzzworthy]

Positive at-home test this morning. Scheduled a PCR for noon for both of us.

What’s the point of a PCR test when you popped positive on a home test and have all the symptoms of Covid?

[oldnew_guy]

What’s the point of a PCR test when you popped positive on a home test and have all the symptoms of Covid?

The only thing I wanted to do was to lay on the couch and sleep when I had it, no way was I dragging myself to get swabbed again.

[riser4]

What’s the point of a PCR test when you popped positive on a home test and have all the symptoms of Covid?

Ya, what's the point now? Up until this summer, it was required for travel to Canada. You either needed a negative within 72 hours or a positive result between 10 and 180 days. Therefore the positive PCR had value. My wife had one that she used for precisely that purpose. That's in the past.

[SumJongGuy]

Only thing a PCR is good for is detecting sooner than a rapid test. If you're already + then ya, no point..

They still have free drive up PCR test place around the corner from here. I keep wondering WHY????

[bodywhomper]

Is our gov still tracking positive pcr tests?

[ex-powderbroker]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...urgery-on-baby

[Danno]

Is our gov still tracking positive pcr tests?

My county and state sure are. Or at least, when I did get a positive PCR test (not quite sure why I took the test when I was already testing positive on rapid tests, maybe curiosity) I started getting many emails and notifications from the local and state public health agencies. No idea if it was "tracked" beyond that.

[riser4]

My county and state sure are. Or at least, when I did get a positive PCR test (not quite sure why I took the test when I was already testing positive on rapid tests, maybe curiosity) I started getting many emails and notifications from the local and state public health agencies. No idea if it was "tracked" beyond that.

Right, you were an anomaly, not because you had COVID, but because you chose to get a PCR and thereby report your COVID. That's why they are interested.

[Danno]

Right, you were an anomaly, not because you had COVID, but because you chose to get a PCR and thereby report your COVID. That's why they are interested.

His question was specifically about whether they were tracking positive PCR tests, not whether people were still getting PCR tests. I wasn't an anomaly, because by definition the question was about positive PCR tests.

[summit]

PCRs are tracked in aggregate by PH. State PH depts and CDC use them to calculate community levels and transmissions.

Are you notified about a positive test if you get a lab test? Yes... whether it is COVID, Flu, RSV, pseudomonas, you must be notified by a healthcare system/provider/lab.

Nobody is doing contact tracing anymore though (which was a fucking useless waste in *this* pandemic)

[bodywhomper]

Thanks for responses about gov PH test tracking.