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  1. #176
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    I think a lot more people (compared to the flu shot) will get vaccinated if the real world efficacy results are similar to what the trials have shown. It's not going to be anywhere near 100%, but I think well over 50%.

  2. #177
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    JFC. OK, let's try this again.
    The immune system, the immune response, and disease transmission and progression are never a black or white process. There are always shades of grey as it is inherently a probabilistic issue. One should never be asking themselves "am I immune or not" or "will I get sick or not" or "what can I do to get my life to return to normal". You should always be asking "what can I do to minimize or maximize the probability of an outcome" because that is how this works.
    The point of a vaccine is to maximize the probability that your immune system will respond quickly enough so that it minimized the chances of you getting sick or you passing the virus along to someone else. It does this by giving your immune system the answer to how to attack the virus before it sees the virus, so when it does actually see the virus, it can react fast enough to minimize the chances of you getting sick or passing the virus along to others. Not no chance, but minimize the chances. Look at the following article:
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-response.html
    In the graph under "Triggering the Immune System", taking the vaccine is about training your adaptive immune system to be able to ramp up the purple line "adaptive response" really quickly so that it tamps down the orange line "viral load".
    Or if you want to get more technical, look at this article: https://judithcurry.com/2020/10/14/t...ity-threshold/
    Look at Figure 1. Taking a vaccine is essentially creating a bunch of "cross reactive" stuff in your immune system so it takes the bodies response from the "No Cross Reactive Memory" option in the top left, to the "Model 2: T Cell accelerated antibodies" option in the bottom left. Note that there is no viral load and no symptoms in Model 2, there are still yellow and red viral load lines and still a green COVID symptoms line, but they are greatly minimized and with a good vaccine (which these seem to be) nearly non-existent.

    In many ways, getting vaccinated as an individual is exactly analogous to wearing a mask and staying at home to "Flatten the Curve" at a community level. It's just that instead of a population curve of "people sick", the curves are now personal "viral load", "symptom", and "transmission" curves. And flattening your personal curves through getting a vaccine also flattens the community curves to the greatest extent possible. I guess it makes sense then that the same people who selfishly buck the population level flatten the curve stuff are the same ones who will buck the personal flatten the curve stuff of the vaccine.
    "Great barbecue makes you want to slap your granny up the side of her head." - Southern Saying

  3. #178
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    Ok PG, you're damn close to landing on my ignore list but I'll play one more time.

    Why don't we just call the first 1,000,000 doses of the vax administered the Phase 5 trial? Would that be enough for you? If there are significant and/or widespread side effects, I'm sure we'll hear about it in the news, and soon. There will be feedback and it will come far sooner than your number is called to get the shot. Do you honestly think they're not going to monitor post-vaccination patients like a hawk? Do you think people won't go screaming to OAN with their COVID vax injuries? The only thing that will seem to make you happy is demonstrated effectiveness and widespread evidence that it doesn't harm humans. The only way to achieve that is to inject the masses. You're stuck in a circular logic argument. If you can't inject until it is demonstrated safe, how can you inject to test? Label the bottle 'experimental' and move forward.

    Except our testing and methods are better than they were in 1950. In the last 70 years there have been massive breakthroughs in vaccine research and testing methods. Our understanding of the human body is far, far greater. Maybe the trials don't need to be as large as the 50's because we can do a lot more in a computer and faster?

    I think the bigger problem is, is that you think you can understand the science and numbers, but you don't. You understand enough to ask questions that are repeatedly and exhaustively clarified, debunked, and remove causes for concern, but you twist it and repeat it into a further and further irrational argument as you simply cannot admit that you are out of your element and you don't understand it. You don't trust the experts on this because you believe they are all corrupted by greed and self interest (Thanks Trump).

    Saying you're against the vaccine because it isn't proven yet in large enough numbers and you'd rather keep the world shut down for a decade has got to be the most stupid and cowardly argument I have ever heard. You want to compare to Polio? Peak Polio infection in the US was 58k cases in the year 1952. We're currently infecting 215k PER DAY in the US. We have nearly 5x the number of dead in 9 months vs. the peak number of polio cases. So there's a sense of urgency here. We don't have a decade unless you want to see tens of millions dead.
    I've concluded that DJSapp was never DJSapp, and Not DJSapp is also not DJSapp, so that means he's telling the truth now and he was lying before.

  4. #179
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    Quote Originally Posted by uglymoney View Post
    Just an FYI I think the number of Mericans who will actually get vaccinated is going to be much lower than people think. Maybe flu shot levels. The front line restaurant workers I deal with as I go about my job delivering food while literally holding my breath behind a home made cloth mask/furnace hepa filter combo aren't at all excited about getting the shot. Either they aren't getting it or they plan to wait and see.

    As I've said before...sign me the fuck up. Also, my mom was a public health nurse for a while, later in her career and most of my life a Professor of Nursing at Iowa. Getting vaccines has never been an option for me, nor will it ever be. I had my flu shot in August and will have the Covid shot at first light.

    During the 2018-2019 season, 62.6% of children between six months and 17 years got a flu shot. Among adults, 45.3% of people got vaccines. The vaccination rate varied by race and ethnicity, with 51% of non-Hispanic white people getting the vaccine compared with 44.7% of the non-Hispanic Black population.Sep 10, 2020 Source CDC 2020
    It takes strong leadership at the highest levels to provide assurance to the public of the safety of the vaccine, the detail and transparency of information related to outcomes, and a detailed plan of how the distribution chain will work. It also takes all of society to make a point of understanding the need and responding responsibly. We've been lacking on all fronts to this point. This isn't political, it's survival of individuals and our society as a whole. My hope is that we have a clear and cogent plan and leadership to build the momentum toward developing herd immunity.

    On the point of those in the restaurant industry who are reluctant to get the vaccine, if I were the owner of that kind of business, I would make it a condition of employment that they get the vaccine within a reasonable period of time from when it becomes available to them. If for no other reason, to create a liability shield against civil action should someone get sick in my restaurant. It should be the due standard of care for any food or public facilities where the public is in close contact with the staff.

  5. #180
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    Quote Originally Posted by The AD View Post
    I think a lot more people (compared to the flu shot) will get vaccinated if the real world efficacy results are similar to what the trials have shown. It's not going to be anywhere near 100%, but I think well over 50%.
    I hope so. We're really a fucked up backwards country now though. Already had a leftist friend pm me an antivaxxer youtubes directly produced to misinform and confuse, and we suffer from a ton of people who really aren't paying attention. Most people don't have to deal with those people, but I do, as a result of my failure early in life to focus on getting my shit together enough to have a role in society where I could be isolated from covidiots. I'm in a sea of morons 4 days a week. Thankfully only for seconds at time before I can find my way to diluted outside air but after doing this for months and months in a state that is run by red facist sycophants instead of rational law makers it is taking a toll on me. I lost my shit on a guy yesterday at work for coming in on me with no mask. Had to apologize at the same time making it clear he had to say away from me and if he didn't put a mask on his product would be left outside. Also the publicity from things like the allergic reactions in the UK today will not help even if they prove to minor problems affecting small numbers of people like most vaccines - as appears likely.

    All this on top of trying to plan a vacation amid people who want to lose their shit on me, for trying to find a piece of sanity for a week. I get it. But it's a lot.

  6. #181
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    You know, I miss the generations of people with attitudes like this. You're pinned down, under fire with no way out other than through, and it may be risky:



    Except getting a vaccine is way less risky.
    I've concluded that DJSapp was never DJSapp, and Not DJSapp is also not DJSapp, so that means he's telling the truth now and he was lying before.

  7. #182
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    To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

    I still want a signed notorized document by the anti vaxxers and non mask wearers and hoaxers saying ďI will not seek medical help when I get sickĒ

    To say Iím tired is an understatement. To be ridiculed and harassed by people who are, frankly, ignorant, has become enraging. Just pushed too far


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    I rip the groomed on tele gear

  8. #183
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    Quote Originally Posted by uglymoney View Post
    We're really a fucked up backwards country now though.
    US will hold a distinction as being the most privileged 3rd world country. Leadership & decision making relegated to myths, legends and superstition.

  9. #184
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    PureGravity - Do you ski? I assume you do but you're aware that skiing has risk, right? How do you reconcile the risks associated with skiing to the actual activity?

  10. #185
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    Quote Originally Posted by detrusor View Post
    To say I’m tired is an understatement. To be ridiculed and harassed by people who are, frankly, ignorant, has become enraging. Just pushed too far
    Are you a doc?

    My brother in law is an ER doc, so are a bunch of his friends, many of whom I know and have skied/biked with. I also know a number of hospitalists. ALL of them are stoked to get vaccinated and all of them are about a million times smarter than puregravity.

    This country is fucking doomed.

  11. #186
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    I haven't followed this whole thread. Have we talked about the massive conflation that will happen as the vaccine rolls out? Specifically, the number of people who will drop dead of non-vaccine causes at roughly the same time they receive the vaccine which will cause mass hysteria among the anti-vax crowd?

  12. #187
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    Quote Originally Posted by uglymoney View Post
    I hope so. We're really a fucked up backwards country now though.
    This is true, but I really hope there is a silent majority that has the sense to trust the (real) experts on this and will get vaccinated, even if they've got some reservations about it.

  13. #188
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  14. #189
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    Didnít you guys hear? Thalidomide was thought to be safe (except for the people who knew it wasnít). Doctors used to treat people using mercury! How can we trust that anything doctors and scientists are saying today is 100% true - now and in the future? I think Iíll take my chances with the virus - despite the effects of that on me also being impossible to predict with 100% certainty.

    On an unrelated note - puregravity did it take the second cutting of the gondola cable to get you to finally accept that it wasnít a ďwind eventĒ or acidic bird shit? Or are those options, once on the table, always in serious consideration?

  15. #190
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    Quote Originally Posted by LegoSkier View Post
    JFC. OK, let's try this again.
    The immune system, the immune response, and disease transmission and progression are never a black or white process. There are always shades of grey as it is inherently a probabilistic issue. One should never be asking themselves "am I immune or not" or "will I get sick or not" or "what can I do to get my life to return to normal". You should always be asking "what can I do to minimize or maximize the probability of an outcome" because that is how this works.
    This right here bears repeating. It should be taught every year K-12 in some form and it's understanding should be tested before any diploma or degree. It is a universal life skill that applies to everything medical and everything with unknown future outcomes in life. Society fails to teach this at its own peril.

  16. #191
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    Quote Originally Posted by RootSkier View Post
    all of them are about a million times smarter than puregravity.

    This country is fucking doomed.
    If it makes you feel any better, pg is Canada's problem.

  17. #192
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    This right here bears repeating. It should be taught every year K-12 in some form and it's understanding should be tested before any diploma or degree. It is a universal life skill that applies to everything medical and everything with unknown future outcomes in life. Society fails to teach this at its own peril.
    Exactly. There are expectations of perfect where results can only qualify as very good. That's not acceptable to some but it is the reality. We need to not let perfect be the enemy of very good.

  18. #193
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ted Striker View Post
    If it makes you feel any better, pg is Canada's problem.
    Wait...what?? I would have sworn he's from Arkansas. NTTAWT

  19. #194
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    Quote Originally Posted by huckbucket View Post
    I haven't followed this whole thread. Have we talked about the massive conflation that will happen as the vaccine rolls out? Specifically, the number of people who will drop dead of non-vaccine causes at roughly the same time they receive the vaccine which will cause mass hysteria among the anti-vax crowd?
    Srsly. They are going to LOSE THEIR FUCKING MINDS.

  20. #195
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    Wake up sheeple!

  21. #196
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    Quote Originally Posted by bennymac View Post
    Thalidomide was thought to be safe (except for the people who knew it wasnít).
    Thalidomide is an interesting case as the FDA blocked approval of the drug for morning sickness in the US. The brave move by the FDA spared many the birth defects it can cause some US patients got the drug via Europe with the resulting fetal damage. Thalidomide is still prescribed in the US typically for oncology patients. The fetal damage caused by Thalidomide caused the FDA and MHRA to require teratology studies before drug entities would be approved for pregnant women.

    Enough pharmacology, I am waiting for my turn to get the COVID vaccine. I survived lots of other vaccinations and the Salk polio vaccine with the active monkey virus.

  22. #197
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    Quote Originally Posted by bennymac View Post

    Wake up sheeple!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Downbound Train View Post
    And there will come a day when our ancestors look back...........

  23. #198
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    Quote Originally Posted by Talisman View Post
    Thalidomide is an interesting case as the FDA blocked approval of the drug for morning sickness in the US. The brave move by the FDA spared many the birth defects it can cause some US patients got the drug via Europe with the resulting fetal damage. Thalidomide is still prescribed in the US typically for oncology patients. The fetal damage caused by Thalidomide caused the FDA and MHRA to require teratology studies before drug entities would be approved for pregnant women.

    Enough pharmacology, I am waiting for my turn to get the COVID vaccine. I survived lots of other vaccinations and the Salk polio vaccine with the active monkey virus.
    What?! We still use thalidomide today? In people? This goes deeper than we thought. How can we trust science to get things 100% right 100% of the time now and into the future? If we canít then I say we abandon science altogether.

  24. #199
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    Quote Originally Posted by bennymac View Post


    Wake up sheeple!
    Jesus we are fucking DOOMED.
    What we have here is an intelligence failure. You may be familiar with staring directly at that when shaving. .
    -Ottime
    One man can only push so many boulders up hills at one time.
    -BMillsSkier

  25. #200
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    Quote Originally Posted by bennymac View Post


    Wake up sheeple!
    No gloves??
    That’s fucking weird.
    Bona vacantia. De bonis asportatis. Writ of certiorari. De minimis. Jus accrescendi. Forum non conveniens. Corpus juris. Ad hominem tu quoque. Post hoc ergo propter hoc. Quod est demonstrandum. Actus reus. Scandalum magnatum. Pactum reservati dominii.

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