To Vaccinate or Not---The Rat Flu Odyssey Continues

[CarlMega]

AP level article speaking to the importance of using vaccines while they are still effective to curb risk of varients.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...nl8?li=BBnb7Kz

Expect more worrisome variants after omicron, scientists say
By LAURA UNGAR, AP Science Writer - Saturday


Get ready to learn more Greek letters. Scientists warn that omicron’s whirlwind advance practically ensures it won’t be the last version of the coronavirus to worry the world.

Every infection provides a chance for the virus to mutate, and omicron has an edge over its predecessors: It spreads way faster despite emerging on a planet with a stronger patchwork of immunity from vaccines and prior illness.

That means more people in whom the virus can further evolve. Experts don’t know what the next variants will look like or how they might shape the pandemic, but they say there’s no guarantee the sequels of omicron will cause milder illness or that existing vaccines will work against them.

They urge wider vaccination now, while today's shots still work.

"The faster omicron spreads, the more opportunities there are for mutation, potentially leading to more variants,” Leonardo Martinez, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Boston University, said.

Since it emerged in mid-November, omicron has raced across the globe like fire through dry grass. Research shows the variant is at least twice as contagious as delta and at least four times as contagious as the original version of the virus.

Omicron is more likely than delta to reinfect individuals who previously had COVID-19 and to cause “breakthrough infections” in vaccinated people while also attacking the unvaccinated. The World Health Organization reported a record 15 million new COVID-19 cases for the week of Jan. 3-9, a 55% increase from the previous week.

Along with keeping comparatively healthy people out of work and school, the ease with which the variant spreads increases the odds the virus will infect and linger inside people with weakened immune systems - giving it more time to develop potent mutations.

“It’s the longer, persistent infections that seem to be the most likely breeding grounds for new variants,” said Dr. Stuart Campbell Ray, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University. "It’s only when you have very widespread infection that you’re going to provide the opportunity for that to occur.”

Because omicron appears to cause less severe disease than delta, its behavior has kindled hope that it could be the start of a trend that eventually makes the virus milder like a common cold.

It's a possibility, experts say, given that viruses don’t spread well if they kill their hosts very quickly. But viruses don’t always get less deadly over time.

A variant could also achieve its main goal - replicating - if infected people developed mild symptoms initially, spread the virus by interacting with others, then got very sick later, Ray explained by way of example.

“People have wondered whether the virus will evolve to mildness. But there’s no particular reason for it to do so,” he said. “I don’t think we can be confident that the virus will become less lethal over time.”

Getting progressively better at evading immunity helps a virus to survive over the long term. When SARS-CoV-2 first struck, no one was immune. But infections and vaccines have conferred at least some immunity to much of the world, so the virus must adapt.

There are many possible avenues for evolution. Animals could potentially incubate and unleash new variants. Pet dogs and cats, deer and farm-raised mink are only a few of the animals vulnerable to the virus, which can potentially mutate within them and leap back to people.

Another potential route: With both omicron and delta circulating, people may get double infections that could spawn what Ray calls “Frankenvariants,” hybrids with characteristics of both types.

When new variants do develop, scientists said it’s still very difficult to know from genetic features which ones might take off. For example, omicron has many more mutations than previous variants, around 30 in the spike protein that lets it attach to human cells. But the so-called IHU variant identified in France and being monitored by the WHO has 46 mutations and doesn’t seem to have spread much at all.

To curb the emergence of variants, scientists stress continuing with public health measures such as masking and getting vaccinated. While omicron is better able to evade immunity than delta, experts said, vaccines still offer protection and booster shots greatly reduce serious illness, hospitalizations and deaths.

Anne Thomas, a 64-year-old IT analyst in Westerly, Rhode Island, said she's fully vaccinated and boosted and also tries to stay safe by mostly staying home while her state has one of the highest COVID-19 case rates in the U.S.

“I have no doubt at all that these viruses are going to continue to mutate and we’re going to be dealing with this for a very long time," she said.

Ray likened vaccines to armor for humanity that greatly hinders viral spread even if it doesn't completely stop it. For a virus that spreads exponentially, he said, "anything that curbs transmission can have a great effect.” Also, when vaccinated people get sick, Ray said their illness is usually milder and clears more quickly, leaving less time to spawn dangerous variants.

Experts say the virus won't become endemic like the flu as long as global vaccination rates are so low. During a recent press conference, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that protecting people from future variants — including those that may be fully resistant to today's shots — depends on ending global vaccine inequity.

Tedros said he’d like to see 70% of people in every country vaccinated by mid-year. Currently, there are dozens of countries where less than a quarter of the population is fully vaccinated, according to Johns Hopkins University statistics. And in the United States, many people continue to resist available vaccines.

“These huge unvaccinated swaths in the U.S., Africa, Asia, Latin America and elsewhere are basically variant factories,” said Dr. Prabhat Jha of the Centre for Global Health Research at St. Michael's Hospital in Toronto. “It's been a colossal failure in global leadership that we have not been able to do this.”

In the meantime, new variants are inevitable, said Louis Mansky, director of the Institute for Molecular Virology at the University of Minnesota.

With so many unvaccinated people, he said, “the virus is still kind of in control of what's going on.”

[bodywhomper]

I fucking hate sand flies

[old goat]

High school contact tracers called today. Kid had close contact to a student who tested positive in extracurricular activity Tuesday. They're not even recommending isolation. Everyone was masked so it's business as usual unless symptoms arise. Recommend testing 5 days after the close contact, but not required. I guess they're done trying. Keep your masks on and get back to work LOL!

HCW's who are exposed to covid patients every day--how often do you suppose they are tested?
At this point it makes little sense to test everyone who is exposed unless they become symptomatic--especially when both parties are masked. (Yes I realize that N95's that HCW's wear are more effective than the cloth masks, flimsy "surgical" masks, and bandanas that most people are wearing or not wearing these days.)

[SumJongGuy]

HCW's who are exposed to covid patients every day--how often do you suppose they are tested?
At this point it makes little sense to test everyone who is exposed unless they become symptomatic--especially when both parties are masked. (Yes I realize that N95's that HCW's wear are more effective than the cloth masks, flimsy "surgical" masks, and bandanas that most people are wearing or not wearing these days.)

Thanks. agreed.

I'm surprisingly calm.. We're all fully boosted and the kid used her part time job money to buy a couple boxes of FDA approved KN95s for the entire crew to use. Use the tools we have to find a reasonable compromise between safety and sanity. I'm good with this for now. Masks suck, REALLY suck but so does dying and putting others at greater risk.. They also test (pool testing) them every Tuesday so there's that. But not everyone agreed to that testing.

[XXX-er]

There has not been much if any testing up here far as I know and I don't se any reason to gett tested, wear masks, distance & vax,

long as I can taste Coffee in the morning and Pinot grigio at night its all good

[ötzi]

Yeah right up until when can't it's all fun and games

[skiJ]

AP level article speaking to the importance of using vaccines while they are still effective to curb risk of varients.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...nl8?li=BBnb7Kz

Expect more worrisome variants after omicron, scientists say
By LAURA UNGAR, AP Science Writer - Saturday


Get ready to learn more Greek letters. Scientists warn that omicron’s whirlwind advance practically ensures it won’t be the last version of the coronavirus to worry the world.

Every infection provides a chance for the virus to mutate, and omicron has an edge over its predecessors: It spreads way faster despite emerging on a planet with a stronger patchwork of immunity from vaccines and prior illness.

That means more people in whom the virus can further evolve. Experts don’t know what the next variants will look like or how they might shape the pandemic, but they say there’s no guarantee the sequels of omicron will cause milder illness or that existing vaccines will work against them.

They urge wider vaccination now, while today's shots still work.

"The faster omicron spreads, the more opportunities there are for mutation, potentially leading to more variants,” Leonardo Martinez, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Boston University, said.

Since it emerged in mid-November, omicron has raced across the globe like fire through dry grass. Research shows the variant is at least twice as contagious as delta and at least four times as contagious as the original version of the virus.

Omicron is more likely than delta to reinfect individuals who previously had COVID-19 and to cause “breakthrough infections” in vaccinated people while also attacking the unvaccinated. The World Health Organization reported a record 15 million new COVID-19 cases for the week of Jan. 3-9, a 55% increase from the previous week.

Along with keeping comparatively healthy people out of work and school, the ease with which the variant spreads increases the odds the virus will infect and linger inside people with weakened immune systems - giving it more time to develop potent mutations.

“It’s the longer, persistent infections that seem to be the most likely breeding grounds for new variants,” said Dr. Stuart Campbell Ray, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University. "It’s only when you have very widespread infection that you’re going to provide the opportunity for that to occur.”

Because omicron appears to cause less severe disease than delta, its behavior has kindled hope that it could be the start of a trend that eventually makes the virus milder like a common cold.

It's a possibility, experts say, given that viruses don’t spread well if they kill their hosts very quickly. But viruses don’t always get less deadly over time.

A variant could also achieve its main goal - replicating - if infected people developed mild symptoms initially, spread the virus by interacting with others, then got very sick later, Ray explained by way of example.

“People have wondered whether the virus will evolve to mildness. But there’s no particular reason for it to do so,” he said. “I don’t think we can be confident that the virus will become less lethal over time.”

Getting progressively better at evading immunity helps a virus to survive over the long term. When SARS-CoV-2 first struck, no one was immune. But infections and vaccines have conferred at least some immunity to much of the world, so the virus must adapt.

There are many possible avenues for evolution. Animals could potentially incubate and unleash new variants. Pet dogs and cats, deer and farm-raised mink are only a few of the animals vulnerable to the virus, which can potentially mutate within them and leap back to people.

Another potential route: With both omicron and delta circulating, people may get double infections that could spawn what Ray calls “Frankenvariants,” hybrids with characteristics of both types.

When new variants do develop, scientists said it’s still very difficult to know from genetic features which ones might take off. For example, omicron has many more mutations than previous variants, around 30 in the spike protein that lets it attach to human cells. But the so-called IHU variant identified in France and being monitored by the WHO has 46 mutations and doesn’t seem to have spread much at all.

To curb the emergence of variants, scientists stress continuing with public health measures such as masking and getting vaccinated. While omicron is better able to evade immunity than delta, experts said, vaccines still offer protection and booster shots greatly reduce serious illness, hospitalizations and deaths.

Anne Thomas, a 64-year-old IT analyst in Westerly, Rhode Island, said she's fully vaccinated and boosted and also tries to stay safe by mostly staying home while her state has one of the highest COVID-19 case rates in the U.S.

“I have no doubt at all that these viruses are going to continue to mutate and we’re going to be dealing with this for a very long time," she said.

Ray likened vaccines to armor for humanity that greatly hinders viral spread even if it doesn't completely stop it. For a virus that spreads exponentially, he said, "anything that curbs transmission can have a great effect.” Also, when vaccinated people get sick, Ray said their illness is usually milder and clears more quickly, leaving less time to spawn dangerous variants.

Experts say the virus won't become endemic like the flu as long as global vaccination rates are so low. During a recent press conference, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that protecting people from future variants — including those that may be fully resistant to today's shots — depends on ending global vaccine inequity.

Tedros said he’d like to see 70% of people in every country vaccinated by mid-year. Currently, there are dozens of countries where less than a quarter of the population is fully vaccinated, according to Johns Hopkins University statistics. And in the United States, many people continue to resist available vaccines.

“These huge unvaccinated swaths in the U.S., Africa, Asia, Latin America and elsewhere are basically variant factories,” said Dr. Prabhat Jha of the Centre for Global Health Research at St. Michael's Hospital in Toronto. “It's been a colossal failure in global leadership that we have not been able to do this.”

In the meantime, new variants are inevitable, said Louis Mansky, director of the Institute for Molecular Virology at the University of Minnesota.

With so many unvaccinated people, he said, “the virus is still kind of in control of what's going on.”

Thank you -
valuable information.

Thank you. skiJ

[SumJongGuy]

Yeah right up until when can't it's all fun and games

I thought the game "WHO FARTED?!?!?!?!?" was great when I couldn't smell anything a year ago..

[wkd-rdr]

The forcefield that vaccines are supposed to put around your body to prevent you from being sneezed on are NOT WORKING!!! All they seem to do is identify and fight infection once it enters your body. Worthless.

I like to conveniently forget 2021 as well

[bennymac]

anti-vax types are burning their carhartt since the company has decided to continue to require vaccination of its workers.

Attachment 402132

You hate to see it.

Do Ford, Chevy, and Dodge have mandates? That might ruin a lot of peoples day.

[Crusty]

GM Canada has a vaccine mandate. Time to torch that Chevy bro!

[LongShortLong]

Oh yeah? Where’d you hear all that…CNN?

LOL. A guy was just giving me that same line. I said no TV, but there's this guy (Mofro) on a message board that sounds like he's real.

[MakersTeleMark]

I have to respect the guy as much as the rims on his square body.

[El Chupacabra]

You hate to see it.

Do Ford, Chevy, and Dodge have mandates? That might ruin a lot of peoples day.

What if all the gun manufacturers had mandates?

[Flounder]

You hate to see it.

Do Ford, Chevy, and Dodge have mandates? That might ruin a lot of peoples day.

Fox News has mandates and they still gobble that shit up

[subtle plague]

What if all the gun manufacturers had mandates?

You'd have to shoot them!

[Mustonen]

I mean…instagram has a mandate. Does somebody want to let this guy know he needs to burn his instagram account?

[Mustonen]

High school contact tracers called today. Kid had close contact to a student who tested positive in extracurricular activity Tuesday. They're not even recommending isolation. Everyone was masked so it's business as usual unless symptoms arise. Recommend testing 5 days after the close contact, but not required. I guess they're done trying. Keep your masks on and get back to work LOL!

Our local schools aren’t even doing contact tracing anymore. Full stop. I’m not sure how useful it really was anyways, as an exercise. They’ve just been grudgingly going through the motions for the last year.

[huckbucket]

I heart Angela Rasmussen.

[Todd Zander]

Lara Logan used to be so hot.

[Core Shot]

Lara Logan used to be so hot.

She is until she opens her mouth

[TNKen]

Well, I'm a week out of quarantine for the 'vid. Still down on energy, still have the hack in upper respiratory system, can't sleep at night, and periods of cold/hot.

Biggest issue however, is my eyes seem to be erratic in movement. I tried to shoot pool Tuesday, and when I tried to focus on the cue ball, it kept dancing around. Eyes do not seem to be tracking smoothly.

Anti-vaxxer in my office has decided that back in 1986, big pharma got immunity from liability for vaccines, thus there is no testing on vaccines because BP can't be sued so all vaccines, including this one, are a racket to make $$$. Then proceeds to tell me that BP has paid out billions over faulty vaccines. Amazing logic.

Oh yeah, she is the one that infected me but of course didn't test until I came back hot. So far, my downstream tree is about 15.

[Bunion 2020]

Glad to hear you are feeling better.

[skaredshtles]

<snip>
Oh yeah, she is the one that infected me but of course didn't test until I came back hot. So far, my downstream tree is about 15.

Have you told her to GFH yet?

[Percy Rideout]

Well okay.... that helps because if jabbing people had to be on a 6 month rotation that would be a nightmare.

Yep, you saw the writing on the wall a year ago. It is the exact nightmare you describe. This is from page 129, just as the vaccines were rolling out for the general public.

KQ checked in announcing to everybody year 3 of the pandemic, and it got me thinking. Check back on old posts and see how wrong some of us were.

I'll start. I thought at the beginning of lockdowns (Joe Exotic was all the rage) that this pandemic would help bring people together, and provide a time to revaluate what was important in life. Boy was I wrong!