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  1. #19851
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    Are you that ignorant at this point?
    A few people feel the rain. Most people just get wet.

  2. #19852
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    Click image for larger version. 

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  3. #19853
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    Guys, this is not Rocket Science, just apply a little common sense for fucks sake

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    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  4. #19854
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    Quote Originally Posted by SumJongGuy View Post
    Lemme guess.. 75% of ventilator patients are vaccinated for........................ MEASLES?
    Could be #fakenews
    Could also be Simpson's paradox, a type of faulty analysis. Aggregate your data by age, then then vax status. Also compare ventilator rates instead of counts. You'll find the unvaxxed are 10x more likely to be ventilated.

    Thought exercise: Consider a 100% vaxxed population, where the vax provides less than full protection against ventilation. This population will have ventilator patients, and they will ALL be vaxxed. Add in some unvaxxed, and they will be mostly vaxxed.

  5. #19855
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongShortLong View Post
    Imma disagree with the CDC. IIRC, they are guessing, projecting from month old data. Eyeballing local sewer data (from yesterday) says 10-20% delta. https://soe-wbe-pilot.wl.r.appspot.com/charts. Also delta prevalence has increased in the last month. Omicron has increased faster.

    CDC needs to do a better job of collecting data, sponsoring studies, convening colloquia, and integrating new tech. They are half blind and consistently several steps behind. The leader, but not a leader.
    Is the CDC in charge of sequencing? Large difference in sequencing rates between states. And states that you wouldn't think would be leaders in sequencing (like Wyoming) are:



    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03698-7

    When I play around with nextstrain it sure doesn't look like there is still 10 to 20% Delta anywhere. Omicron dominates everywhere. And as far as I can tell, this is based on the latest sequencing data. I see 3% of Delta (includes both Delta variants) as of 1/8/22 in the US.

    https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/21K.Omicron

  6. #19856
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    2000 vaccinated people and 20 go into hospital

    100 unvaccinated people and 10 go into hospital

    NakedSharts screams "There are twice as many vaccinated people in the hospital as there are unvaccinated!"

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  7. #19857
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongShortLong View Post
    Imma disagree with the CDC. IIRC, they are guessing, projecting from month old data. Eyeballing local sewer data (from yesterday) says 10-20% delta. https://soe-wbe-pilot.wl.r.appspot.com/charts. Also delta prevalence has increased in the last month. Omicron has increased faster.

    CDC needs to do a better job of collecting data, sponsoring studies, convening colloquia, and integrating new tech. They are half blind and consistently several steps behind. The leader, but not a leader.
    Er hem... your link specifically says between 1.5-7% at those locations for Delta during the last 2 weeks, none of them increasing. https://soe-wbe-pilot.wl.r.appspot.c...ncompare-delta

    Note S gene and del143-5 are the same gene marker but 2 different regions. To get the Delta data, look at the del156-7 marker (also in the S gene). These deletions are found in ~90%, but not all, of the respective Omicron and Delta strains.
    Move upside and let the man go through...

  8. #19858
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    Quote Originally Posted by altasnob View Post
    Is the CDC in charge of sequencing? Large difference in sequencing rates between states. And states that you wouldn't think would be leaders in sequencing (like Wyoming) are:



    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03698-7

    When I play around with nextstrain it sure doesn't look like there is still 10 to 20% Delta anywhere. Omicron dominates everywhere. And as far as I can tell, this is based on the latest sequencing data. I see 3% of Delta (includes both Delta variants) as of 1/8/22 in the US.

    https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/21K.Omicron
    I agree the data sources disagree. What data is entered in nextstrain? Is there any effort to get a representative sample? Perhaps it's biased toward researchers choosing to sequence the hot new thing?

    The sewer data I linked is only representative of the local area. I looked for the Boston data to compare, but they don't discriminate variants.

    It's unclear to me why delta would go away, unless NPIs increased, or until omicron infects enough of us to raise resistance.

  9. #19859
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    part of my concern is looking at this as a small percentage of a Very large number is not insignificant -

    700,000 new cases Daily ;
    Pick your percentage -
    .5% is still 3500 cases weekly ;
    7% would be almost 50,000 cases of delta - and

    please remember variants develop in those infected, when there is also a susceptible population.
    from my perspective given our omicron - and delta - experience, everyone could be at risk for a new variant, And there are certainly sufficient covid cases for variants to develop.

    Summit's letter of Resignation is amusingly sobering.

    Please ,,, try to find your long view --

    tj

  10. #19860
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    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    But putting purposeful morans/trolls on Ignore is just good business.
    Agreed
    That's approaching harassment (to everyone) if they're nefarious instead of honestly believing what they're debating..
    Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!

  11. #19861
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongShortLong View Post
    Aggregate your data by age, then then vax status.
    This^^. All the "whole population" data that's not stratified by age has been suspect (or demonstrably misleading) for a year now. You can't ignore the fact that vax rates in the general population are pulled up by the old while bad outcomes among the unvaccinated are pulled down by the young. Because the old are far more vaccinated.

    Maybe Liv2ski can show that better with a Venn diagram.

  12. #19862
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mofro261 View Post
    Er hem... your link specifically says between 1.5-7% at those locations for Delta during the last 2 weeks, none of them increasing. https://soe-wbe-pilot.wl.r.appspot.c...ncompare-delta

    Note S gene and del143-5 are the same gene marker but 2 different regions. To get the Delta data, look at the del156-7 marker (also in the S gene). These deletions are found in ~90%, but not all, of the respective Omicron and Delta strains.
    Thanks, that;s interesting. I was making a similar comparison, but using omicron's Del 143-145 vs S (or N). In the link I posted, S and N were already high when omicron appeared, and the gap between S/N and Del 143-145 remained and grew. I assume this gap is non-omicron variants, but you say some omicron variants do not have Del 143-145, so the omicron fraction would be greater than I claimed.
    10/01/2012 Site was upgraded to 300 baud.

  13. #19863
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongShortLong View Post
    Could be #fakenews
    Could also be Simpson's paradox, a type of faulty analysis. Aggregate your data by age, then then vax status. Also compare ventilator rates instead of counts. You'll find the unvaxxed are 10x more likely to be ventilated.

    Thought exercise: Consider a 100% vaxxed population, where the vax provides less than full protection against ventilation. This population will have ventilator patients, and they will ALL be vaxxed. Add in some unvaxxed, and they will be mostly vaxxed.
    It also doesn't state they are all on the ventilators for COVID. I mean weren't a bunch of people already on ventilators before COVID was a thing? People are intubated for all kinds of things every day. I don't see them saying they're only counting COVID patients on ventilators there..
    Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!

  14. #19864
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    Thanks!! And thanks, jono for the journal article link.

    Topol is SO prolific on Twitter, itís very comprehensive but hard to keep up. Thereís a good interview and conversation between Bob Wachter and Topol last week. https://youtu.be/lCAvFHd3B38

  15. #19865
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongShortLong View Post
    It's unclear to me why delta would go away, unless NPIs increased, or until omicron infects enough of us to raise resistance.
    Delta went away because it does not have a fitness advantage over Omicron. It simply cannot compete with Omicron as well for hosts due to it's increased transmissibility, despite not being quite as replication competent( average CT's 1 log higher for Omicron, 23 vs 20 for Delta). Just like Wu-1 was obliterated by Alpha, and then Alpha completely was wiped off the map by Delta, now Delta bows out to Omicron.

    Good thing too as much of the data suggests infection with Omicron will not cross protect against any other strains in unvaccinated people, but breakthrough in vaxxed individuals do look to have cross-protection against all strains but Beta (also a goner).

    Limited cross-variant immunity after infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant without vaccination. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....13.22269243v1
    (UCSF, Jen Doudna)

    Collectively, our study shows that while the Omicron virus is immunogenic, infection with this variant in unvaccinated individuals may not elicit effective cross-neutralizing antibodies against other variants. In vaccinated individuals, however, Omicron infection effectively induces immunity against itself and enhances protection against other variants.

    Also- Nextstrain is a compiler of covid data from the network of worldwide GISAID affiliates. https://www.gisaid.org/
    Last edited by Mofro261; 01-18-2022 at 05:05 PM. Reason: fixed link
    Move upside and let the man go through...

  16. #19866
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    That MedRxiv link is missing a character, here's one that works:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....13.22269243v1

  17. #19867
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    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    Guys, this is not Rocket Science, just apply a little common sense for fucks sake

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    He'd be better off posting "I'm stupid" over and over again.
    Damn shame, throwing away a perfectly good white boy like that

  18. #19868
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    Quote Originally Posted by altasnob View Post
    Moderna's "Omicron coronavirus variant will enter clinical development in the next few weeks and the company expects to be able to share data with regulators around March"

    https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...ch-2022-01-17/

    They can't just skip the clinical trials though, correct? So there is no way to speed that up?
    You mean you want them to do more or less than they do for annual flu shots when they are changing less than they do with annual flu shots?
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  19. #19869
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongShortLong View Post
    Imma disagree with the CDC. IIRC, they are guessing, projecting from month old data. Eyeballing local sewer data (from yesterday) says 10-20% delta. https://soe-wbe-pilot.wl.r.appspot.com/charts. Also delta prevalence has increased in the last month. Omicron has increased faster.

    CDC needs to do a better job of collecting data, sponsoring studies, convening colloquia, and integrating new tech. They are half blind and consistently several steps behind. The leader, but not a leader.
    I'm not an expert of sewage surveillance, but my understanding is it is more a "detected" vs "not detected" and people may shed detectable virus long after they don't have it, so seeing delta detected in 10-20% of stool does not at all call into question the sequencing conclusion that 99.5% of active cases are Omicron.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  20. #19870
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    Quote Originally Posted by Summit View Post
    You mean you want them to do more or less than they do for annual flu shots when they are changing less than they do with annual flu shots?
    I was asking a question. Is it even possible to rush approve an Omicron specific vaccine?

    Is this what people want? Is this what medical experts are advocating? The government to approve new mRNA vaccines specifically tailored for each new variant without any clinical studies?

  21. #19871
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    Quote Originally Posted by altasnob View Post
    I was asking a question. Is it even possible to rush approve an Omicron specific vaccine?

    Is this what people want? Is this what medical experts are advocating? The government to approve new mRNA vaccines specifically tailored for each new variant without any clinical studies?
    If you change a few "letters" in the mRNA to match to the Omicron spike protein instead of the Wuhan-1 spike protein, is that a "new" vaccine?

    Flu vaccines, where we use a whole dead virus, use different viruses every season (and multiple strains). Some don't grow well in the common growth medium (eggs). It takes a while to go from selection to deployment, 6 months! Sometimes manufacturers have to guess and start producing a couple of strains before CDC picks what strains will go in the vaccine. And sometimes they guess wrong!

    mRNA is faster to design and produce. So we can do 3 months instead of 6 months. That's a good thing for flu and would have been so for COVID up until the insane speed of spread of Omicron.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  22. #19872
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    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    Guys, this is not Rocket Science, just apply a little common sense for fucks sake

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    Right?

    I'm old enough to remember when NakedShorts was still pretending to be just "asking questions" vs. overt anti-vax. Honestly, it's better now - do away with the charade.

  23. #19873
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    Quote Originally Posted by NakedShorts View Post
    As far as what Gov Murphy says--that's no surprise. It has been widely reported that many of the hospital cases of covid were asymptomatic patients admitted for something else. These go into covid case counts. Covid will not be listed as cause of death or cause of hospitalization unless the patients later become sick with it. As I posted before 12 or 16 trauma patients my son admitted tested positive for covid.

    As far as the hospital reporting 75% of its ventilator covid patients being vaccinated the report is not from the hospital itself but from the city interpreting what is happening in the hospital. It is impossible to tell from this third hand report whether the covid ventilator patients are on the vent because of covid or if they are among the people with incidental covid. If in fact they are on vents from covid it is not surprising that there would be a small minority of hospitals where this is the case, but it is certainly not what most hospitals are reporting. In any case, more direct information is needed. I can find no other news source for this information.

    There does seem to be a lack of detailed information in the mainstream press about the demographics and characteristics of omicron cases--vaxed vs unvaxed, asymptomatic, symptomatic, hospitalized, ICU, death, age and preexisting conditions. Also, while we know that there are a lot of breakthrough cases but how do the chances of unvaccinated and vaccinated getting covid compare and if infected how do their chances of transmitting compare?
    Last edited by old goat; 01-18-2022 at 06:49 PM.

  24. #19874
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    Donít wreck your car in Oklahoma:

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    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    What we have here is an intelligence failure. You may be familiar with staring directly at that when shaving. .
    -Ottime
    One man can only push so many boulders up hills at one time.
    -BMillsSkier

  25. #19875
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    Quote Originally Posted by seano732 View Post
    Don’t wreck your car in Oklahoma:

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    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    My kid's at school in Norman there. He said he's about the only student wearing a mask (KN95) in most of his classes. He said most of the professors do. Same thing at his part time job. MURIKA!

    Oklahoma's probably the reddest state in the nation.. even literally. They have red dirt there..
    Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!

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